JR O'Donnell
Texas A&M -8.5
The O'ster going big here as the "HUGE members move goes to Texas A&M moving to the SEC next year this means this will be the end of the yearly struggle between these two bitter rivals till at least 2017 when there may be an opening on UT schedule. Because of this, at 8 PM EST tonight neither one of these teams wants to come out the loser for at least "6" years. Longhorns are 6-4 (5-5 ATS) and A&M is 6-5 (3-8 ATS), and this is senior day and their final game this year. A&M has become known in 2011 for blowing big leads and losing down the stretch. Still their strength is the "O", and they have a balanced attack with both passing and rushing listed in the top 20 in the nation. QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 3191 yards, "26" TD and "11" INT. He has thrown for 200+ yards in every game but one.
They most likely will be without their top two running backs to injury, but it is defense that is their achilles heel. Teams have been torching their secondary to the tune of almost 300 yards per game. Does that means good things for Texas and their passing attack. Well no really, because they have the 96th ranked passing "O", and have only put up "18" points total the last two weeks. One QB (Ash) has 937 yds passing with "3" TD and "8" INT, and the other (MCCoy) has 568 yds and "4" TD and "0" INT. Still their defense (UT) is one of the best in the nation, and clearly #1 in the Big 12, at least statistically. If Texas can't score more than "20" we just don't see how they can win, because A&M averages 41 ppg, and will have the edge with the home field and a raucous crowd. Power Rated @ - 14.22 points here guys !!!
Texas wants to run, and A&M has the 15th ranked rushing "D"! They will make Texas to throw to beat you and you have a formula for success.
TAKE TEXAS A&M -8.5
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at Texas A&M to cover against Texas.
The Longhorns are in an offensive funk lately. They have trouble scoring.
Against Missouri and Kansas State, the Longhorns combined for 18 points in those two games. That is not going to cut it in this game.
And we are not talking about facing elite defenses in those games.
With their QB troubles, they cannot throw the ball with any consistency. In the last five games, Texas has not topped 200 yards passing.
Texas A&M is an offensive juggernaut. The Aggies average 40.9 points a game. They rush for 218.6 yards and throw for 293.7 yards a game. They will score against the Longhorns.
The question is whether Texas can move the ball against the Aggies. Texas A&M does give up 292.3 passing yards a game, but the Longhorns will not be able to capitalize on that.
Texas A&M has too much offense here. They will get ahead of the Longhorns and force them to give up the ground game and that will doom any chance of a Texas comeback.
Take Texas A&M.
3♦ TEXAS A&M
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play I'm siding with Florida St. over Massachusetts as collide in the opening round of the Atlantis Tournament in Nassau. I know a lot of you say UMASS pummel Boston College, and you're thinking, how the hell can I lay 7' points against them? Big mistake. That's exactly what the oddsmakers are hoping you'll think!
There's a gigantic difference between Boston College's defense and that of the Seminoles. The Minutemen will find that out the hard way this afternoon. Let's not forget they've led the nation in opponents field goal % the last 2 years, and they picked up right where they left off this season. Did you see them hold South Alabama to 0 for 24 from the 3-point line? I know it was just South Alabama, but still that kind of defensive effort is almost unheard of. They will frustrate the Minutemen unlike the other (piss-poor) defenses they've seen already this season.
Looking deeper into the matchups, I love the balance FSU has on both ends of the court, with four players averaging double figures. Not to mention, they have size that the Minutemen simply can't match, with Gibson, James, White and Shannon. Florida State is simply too athletic and too defensively sound for a good, but not great UMASS squad.
Finally, the Seminoles have been a cash-cow of late, going 7-1-1 ATS over their L9 games, and 4-1 ATS in their L5 neutral site games. Massachusetts has not played well as a dog (2-5 ATS L7) and even worse as a neutral site dog, going 4-10 ATS in that spot. All things considered, this line is nothing more than a ploy to entice you to play UMASS. Don't do it, as they get exposed by a superior Seminoles defense this afternoon. Take Florida State over Massachusetts Thursday.
3♦ FLORIDA STATE
Scott Delaney
Going to breakdown the Villanova-Cal Riverside contest in the opening round of the 76 Classic at the Anaheim Convention Center. The line is around -13 points, which indicates how much better 'Nova is, but believe me, there is no comparison between these two clubs. I fully expect the boys from Philly to put it on the Highlanders, who are 1-2 so far and still in search of their first win over a Division I foe.
After destroying the California-Lutheran Kingsmen, 72-48, to start the season, the Highlanders were limited to 41 and 49 points in their next two games, both losses, to UTEP and Youngstown State.
The 3-0 Wildcats opened the season with a 36-point blowout, and followed it with a 7-point victory and 10-point win. Of the eight-team field in this event, Villanova received the most votes in the latest Associated Press men's basketball poll, and would be ranked No. 32 if the poll was extended that far. It would rank No. 28 in the ESPN/USA Today poll.
Villanova has too much talent for this Riverside team, led by a junior trio - Dominic Cheek, Maalik Wayns, and Mouphtaou Yarou - which is averaging a combined 59 points and 20.7 rebounds per game through three contests. For Cal Riverside, it appears to be a one-man show, as senior guard Phil Martin has averaged 14.7 points per game to start the season. And from what I can tell, the offense starts and ends with Martin, and that won't be enough in this tourney opener.
The Wildcats have already received their scare from a lesser foe, as they struggled to put Delaware away before winning 79-69 on Nov. 18, albeit they were never necessarily threatened.
I'm laying the points with 'Nova in this one, as it rolls to a near-20 point win.
3♦ VILLANOVA
Jeff Benton
Your Thanksgiving freebie will be to look for a low-scoring contest in the Miami-Dallas tussle in Texas.
Both teams have put up some big scores during their coinciding three game winning streaks, but today will be all about the "D" (as in defense) in Big "D" (as in Dallas).
Miami is on a nine game under run, and in their last three games, they have not allowed a single touchdown. In fact, the Dolphins have only allowed 20 total points during their three game winning streak, and they have allowed 20-points or less in five straight games, and six of their last eight overall.
Dallas has allowed just 27 total points in their last three home games, and had played unders in four in a row prior to their two game over burst their last pair of contests.
20 of Miami's last 26 road games have also played low, so look for the points to be at a premium this Thanksgiving Day at Cowboys Stadium.
Miami and Dallas to hold low.
2♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
Let's get to the college hardwood for my complimentary winner on Thanksgiving, as I like the St. Louis Billikens minus the points against Boston College. This is an impressive field for the 76 Classic at the Anaheim Convention Center, and you're hearing it here first - the Billikens are my sleeper team in this field.
You'd know more about them if they didn't have so many things happen to them during their Atlantic 10 run last season - off-court issues with two players in an alleged sexual assault case and coach Rick Majerus missed seven games due to health reasons - but you will know about them this year, mark my words.
St. Louis has taken the backseat in the A-10 to the likes of Xavier, Temple and St. Bonnies, but has already scored a decent win over the Pac 12's Washington, and could exit Anaheim, California with a couple more monumental wins, including a potential showdown with Villanova. Through three games, St. Louis has held all three opponents under 65 points, while holding the first two under 42 points.
And this kid Kwamain Mitchell has been nice early on, averaging 12 points, four rebounds and five assists over his team's first three games. And with a solid showing in this tournament, he just might elevate the Billikens into the national spotlight.
As for Boston College, it's been an entirely different story. The Eagles struggled to win the season-opener against New Hampshire by three points, and then lost back-to-back games to Holy Cross and U Mass by a combined 58 points. Honestly, I don't know what's worse: losing to little Holy Cross by 22, or to the Atlantic 10's afterthought Minutemen by 36 points.
Now you expect the Eagles - who rank worse than 300th in the nation in points per game, assists and field goal percentage - to travel cross country and take on the surging and motivated Billikens? There's no way I can support the Eagles, even with a big number this early in the season. I'm laying the number with Majerus' bunch.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Bob Balfe
Texas/Texas A&M Over 54
Both teams have just about no running backs left on their roster. This is going to be a classic example of a game in which each team is going to throw the ball all night and the clock is going to be stopped with either a first down or an incomplete pass. This game should take all night. Texas A&M has great passing offense and I expect them to put up points. No matter what the score is this team will allow Texas to get back in the game. I really think the Aggies could be a top 5 team this year if they knew how to close games out. Instead they are going to get a lousy bowl game. Texas is obviously in a rebuilding year, but I think they will put up a good amount of points against this Aggies Defense that self destructs in the second half of games. Look for an exciting shootout. This is going to be the most entertaining game on the board today. Take the Over
David Banks
49ers / Ravens Under
A battle of first place teams is set to go down in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night in the battle of Harbaugh’s as younger brother Jim leads his San Francisco 49ers (9-1, 9-0-1 ATS) up against older brother John’s Baltimore Ravens (7-3, 5-4-1 ATS); kick-off from M&T Bank Stadium is set to go live at 8:20 ET on the NFL Network.
If only Mike Singletary was able to rally the troops like Jim Harbaugh has done throughout the 2011-12 season, he might not be sitting at home watching this game on TV now a member of the Minnesota Vikings coaching staff. With the same talent that was on the roster from last year’s underachieving 6-10 SU team, the Niners have won all but one of their games played to date, and in the process, made a mint for their betting backers by dominating against the closing pointspread. Since that Week 2 loss in OT at home to Dallas, the 49ers have won each of their last eight games played both SU & ATS. The NFC West leaders could possibly snag the NFC’s top overall seed provided Green Bay slips up and they’re able to take advantage of what looks to be an incredibly easy schedule to close out the regular season (4 of 6 vs. NFC West). The Niners have ventured away from Candlestick Park four times to date winning outright as underdogs against Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Detroit, while covering the road chalk at Washington.
Then there’s the AFC North leading Baltimore Ravens who’ve been nothing short of an enigma for NFL bettors all season long. Head Coach John Harbaugh’s squad possesses some impressive wins against the likes of Pittsburgh (twice) as well as New York and Houston. However, every time it has collected one of those big wins, the team has come out severely flat the following week inexplicably losing at Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Seattle. Last week’s home win over Cincinnati was a big one for tiebreaking purposes within the division, so it will be interesting to see the mind frame one of the best teams the AFC has to offer brings with to the field for Turkey Day’s primetime battle. That said; the Ravens are unblemished at home and 3-1-1 ATS with wins over Pittsburgh, New York, Houston, Arizona, and Seattle. They’ve also covered each of their L/3 as a home chalk up to three-points.
These teams haven’t crossed paths on the gridiron since 2007 when Baltimore went into San Francisco and scored the 9-7 win as four-point favorites. This will be the Niners first Thanksgiving Day appearance since 1972. San Francisco is 9-4-2 ATS the L/15 times it was tagged a road underdog, but just 2-6-3 ATS the L/11 times it was dogged on the road up to three points. Baltimore is 10-4-1 ATS the L/15 times it was installed a home chalk up to three points, but just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS off its L/9 triumphs over a division rival.
WUNDERDOG
Dayton vs. Wake Forest
Pick: Dayton -6
Wake Forest is 3-0, but they own only one quality win (Loyola Maryland). The Deacons beat Georgia Southern, but didn't cover the spread and their last game was an unlined game vs. NC Central. This will be their first real test. Dayton is coming off a dismantling of UNC Wilmington 74-49 and I like them to carry their momentum into this one. Over the last three seasons, the Flyers are 20-8 ATS following a non-conference game and 9-1 ATS after back-to-back non-conference games. Wake Forest has never been a good tournament team, going 19-42 ATS in their last 61 such games. Take the Flyers to win comfortably here.
Texas at Texas A&M
Pick: Texas A&M -7.5
The Texas Longhorns have a mediocre offense this season, but that isn't the worst part of it. They currently have their top three running backs and their top wide receiver dealing with injuries. The end result is a Texas team than has scored all of 18 points in their last two games combined. Texas enters with a 6-4 record on the season, but a closer look shows them not getting it done vs. the better teams in the conference at 0-4. The Aggies have dropped five games to teams with a combined record of 43-11. They lost to Oklahoma State by just a single point and to Arkansas by just 4 points. They also fell in overtime to Kansas State by just 3 points. Texas has had trouble getting the money vs. winning teams at 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27, and have also dropped their last five as a dog. College Station has been no picnic for the Horns either as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six here. Lay the points and play on Texas A&M.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Boston College Under 124: Last time out for St Louis they got caugth up in a bit of track meet (for them anyway) with Washington and 141 points were scored in the game. Today St louis is a far superior team and I feel that they will get the pace of the game to where they will want it, which is a game that ends fat 115 or lower. St Louis is a team that p[lays great defense, as they have allowed just 47.7 ppg and 32.4% shooting. I'm not sure how a BC team that scores just 59 ppg on 35.5% shooting will get more than 50 points in this one. On offense the Billikens like to walk the ball up and use the whole shot clock and that kind of offense eats a lot of time off the clock. Even though BC allows 77 ppg St Louis just doesn't have the kind of offense that will put that much on the board. I really expect no more than 115 in this one.