Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 25,2010

Sports Insights

Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots

With the holiday-shortened week, one of our offshore buddies called us Monday and already had this game circled. He said that a few of his sharper players jumped on Detroit and that his sharps liked the Lions as a "live dog" this coming week. Two of SportsInsights' marketplace indicators confirm this market activity. In addition to being one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week, this Thanksgiving match-up is attracting the heaviest betting activity of the week so far.

The 2-8 Lions and 8-2 Patriots are two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions. The Patriots are coming off of two impressive wins against Pittsburgh and then the Colts. Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off of a 35-19 thumping at the hands of a sub-par Dallas Cowboy team and are currently riding a three-game losing streak. As a result, the Detroit Lions are receiving just 13% of the bets. In addition, this game exhibits "reverse line movement" with the opening line of Detroit +7 getting pushed down to Detroit +6.5, even with the vast majority of bets taking New England. This is a sure sign of "big money" on Detroit countering the smaller public bets on New England and forcing the line lower.

Let's "bet against the public" and ride the coattails of the "big money" on Detroit. What other factors do we like about this selection?

* With New England coming off of the impressive wins, let's "sell" the Patriots at a recent high.

* Fans have memories and feelings that the Patriots are as strong as the monster teams they have had just a few years ago. This gives added value to the Detroit play.

* Similarly, we'll "buy" the Lions at a recent low.

* Interestingly, the books with the "sharper" players have the game listed at Detroit +6.5, while the "Public" books are at Detroit +7.

* New England has the NFL's highest-scoring offense, but their defense is ranked just #23 in points scored. New England is also ranked #31 in passing yards against. Number 31 out of 32 teams.

* Although Detroit lost to Dallas 35-19, last week, the score made Detroit look worse than the actual game. Detroit actually led the game at half-time, and trailed by just 20-19 late in the fourth quarter.

* Although Detroit is just 2-8, they have scored about as many points as they have given up for the season.

Remember to shop around for the best line, monitor the latest line and make sure you at least grab the key number of seven.

Detroit Lions +7

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Texas Longhorns +3.5

Just one season removed from a trip to the BCS championship game, Texas finds itself at just 5-6 going into its season finale with Texas A&M. But needing a win to become bowl eligible, expect the Longhorns to rise to the occasion.

A 51-17 confidence-boosting win over Florida Atlantic was just what this Texas team needed. Now, it is ready to show the country how talented it really is. The Aggies are coming off as emotionally and physically draining a win as I've seen all season. It took all they had to sneak past Nebraska, and I don't think they'll have enough left to fend off a team full of 5-star kids in this in-state rivalry game.

From a point spread standpoint, home field has meant everything in this rivalry. In fact, the home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Also, the Aggies are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at Texas. Under coach Mack Brown, it hasn't been wise to mess with Texas at home in the month of November. In fact, Brown's boys are 15-6 ATS in 21 November home contests. Texas is also a rock solid 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.

Few thought this Texas team could march into Lincoln and beat the Huskers, especially since Nebraska was hungry to avenge its Big 12 title game loss. I expect Texas to get up for this game the same way. Take the points.

JR O'Donnell

Texas Longhorns + 4

The Texas Longhorns needed to clobber someone & last week the Florida Atlantic crew was just the ticket as the Texas Longhorns just blasted them 51-17. QB Gilbert rolled up 268 yards through the air and 522 total yards of "Offense". On the flipside the Texas D just squashed the Florida Atlantic Crew to under 300 yards and also had 3 takeaways! Everything gets thrown out the window here when they're in this huge huge TEXAS instate rivalry! The Texas AM boys were beat up pretty bad last week vs. the Nebraska Corn Huskers. A true physical grind it out battle, and we note that the Texas crew has to hang up a W to be bowl eligible. The Power Ratings check in here @ Texas - 1, a nice huge overlay. Texas has publicly made this game a circled game that has the Zone on the home team here! The home team is 9-2-1 ATS and the Texas Longhorns are a 90% ATS prop here in home finales!! One more thing here that seals the deal, Texas ranks on the top 10 in total D in the Country!

Tom Freese

Texas A&M at Texas
Play: Texas A&M

Texas is 5-6 straight up this year. The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games with the Aggies. The Longhorns are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 1-5 ATS their last 6 home games. The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS off a straight up win. Texas A&M is 8-3 straight up this year. The Aggies are ranked 18th in the country. Texas A&M is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 November games. The Aggies are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games as road favorites.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have gone Over in all six home games this year with those games average a whopping 58 points per game. Overall, Dallas has gone Over in seven straight games. The Saints offense has begun to hit its stride, scoring 34 points in back to back games.

Play on: Over

Steve Merril

Texas A & M vs. Texas
Play: Under 47.5

The Longhorns’ disappointing season has been the result of a weak offense that is averaging just 24.4 points per game and only 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 27.8 ppg and 5.6 yppl). Texas did take advantage of a bad Florida Atlantic squad last week in an easy 51-17 home win, but overall Texas has still averaged just 19.6 points per game in conference play this season. The Longhorns must now face a strong Texas A&M defense that is permitting just 20.6 points per game and only 4.7 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average 29.6 ppg and 5.8 yppl). Texas A&M is a solid offensive team, but they will likely struggle against a strong Texas defense that is permitting just 23.6 points per game this season and only 4.5 yards per play (versus opponents that average 28.9 ppg and 5.6 yppl). Texas A&M is also coming off an extremely low-scoring 9-6 win versus Nebraska last week, and it’s unlikely they can all of a sudden turn on their offense on the road, especially against a stout Texas defense.

Rob Vinciletti

Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Sacramento Kings +3

The Clippers at 2-13 find themselves in a rare favored role tonight. However there is an excellent system that is 3-17 ats since 1995 that plays against them here tonight. What we want to do is play against home favorites with 1 or more day of rest if the posted total is 190 or higher and they were a home dog of 5 or more in thier last game and are now taking on an opponent that shot 45% or less from the field as a road dog of 10 or more. These home favorites are 7-13 straight up and 3-17 ats since 1995. The Clippers are comiing off a pair of hot shooting performances as they hit better than 50% in thier last 2 games. Sacramento shot less than 40% in their last 2 games. The Kings havew won 40 of the past 59 games in the series including the last 3. Look for them to surprise the Clippers tonight. Take the 3 points.

JIM FEIST

TULSA / UNLV
PLAY: UNDER

A pair of marquee defensive teams meet in Anaheim. Tulsa can play exceptional defense, as we saw the last game in a 62-50 win over Missouri State, allowing 28% shooting (3 of 15 from beyond the arc). UNLV also plays outstanding defense for Coach Lon Kruger, holding Wisconsin to 36% shooting the last game. Look for a defensive duel, Play Tulsa/UNLV Under the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +7 over New England

Nothing like a little Thanksgiving football and it begins at the traditional 12:30 PM EST in Detroit. Looks like a complete mismatch given that the Patriots are rolling right now while the Lions continue to find ways to lose games and one also can’t ignore the Tom Brady versus Shaun Hill angle. That’s all well and good but as Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the games”! The books had to know that the money would be coming in on the Patriots and they got exactly what they expected, as the public continues to pound away at the better team. If all things were equal the Patriots would likely ruin the Lions but this spot is about as unfavorable for New England as any spot we’ve seen all season. The Patriots are coming off consecutive games over Pittsburgh on Sunday night and last week against the Colts in the featured game of the week. On deck awaits the Jets and that’s a bigger game than any on the schedule. In a similar situation a few weeks ago the Pats were coming off consecutive wins over San Diego and Minnesota (the week they let go of Moss) and after beating that duo the Pats went into Cleveland and were clobbered by 20. You can break it down all you want. We all know the Patriots are vastly superior and we all know they should win going away. However, you can’t take the human element out of the equation and that element strongly suggests that the Patriots will take this week off. Lions are supposed to cover here and are very likely the “right” side. Play: Detroit +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

New Orleans –3½ over DALLAS

Nobody despises laying road points more than us but the Dallas Cowboys have two lucky wins since switching coaches and folk believe that their season has turned around. It hasn’t. The Cowboys couldn’t win with Tony Romo and Jon Kitna is in no way an upgrade. Fact is, the G-Men shredded the Boys for close to 500 yards and the subsequently Dallas had every ball bounce its way over Detroit. This team is still a dumpster fire and the competition gets serious this week. Remember, the Boys were thumped in Dallas by the Pack just three short weeks ago and the week prior, the Jags made them look even worse. Enter the surging Saints that have won three in a row and barely broke a sweat in doing so. Wins over Carolina and Seattle mean nothing but when the chips were down three weeks ago against the Steelers, New Orleans whacked them too. Well, this game means something to them, especially in front of a national audience and this team is too talented and too determined to lose to Dallas. The Cowboys recent wins have them hugely overvalued here and the Saints aggressive pass rush and rock solid defense will show everybody why Jon Kitna has been basically a back-up QB for 12 years. Play: New Orleans –3½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Cincinnati +8½ over NY JETS

Yes, the Bengals care about something. They care about not being embarrassed on Thanksgiving night in a game that will be seen globally. The Bengals do not care about winning or losing or anything else. They absolutely care about looking good on prime time because each and every player will have the PVR set to tape this one in order to watch it 50 times just in case they play good. The Cincinnati Bengals are a bunch of hot dogs but this is their Super Bowl. The Jets eliminated Cinci last season in the playoffs by a score of 24-14 and also beat them in the regular season finale a year ago, 37-0. If nothing else, the Bengals would sell their mothers for a cigar just to look good one more time this year. Besides, what have the Jets done to deserve this billing on three days rest? That genie that was following the Steelers around has jumped over to the Jets. The Jets had no right whatsoever beating the Brownies and did so on not one, but two fluke bounces and last week’s win over Houston was even more bizarre. The week before that they beat the Lions by three, the week before that they lost at home to the Packers 9-0 and the week before that they beat the Broncos by four. This is a Jets team that is barely squeezing by every dreg out there and now they’re going to lay 8½ points on three days rest? Don’t think so. Play: Cincinnati +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Patriots (8-2) at Lions (2-8)

While Bill Belichick and the Patriots approach the game differently than most, there is still a human element that cannot be denied and it can certainly be applied here. New England comes off a set where they defeated both the Steelers and Colts respectively. Now they find themselves on a short week, only to have a Monday night tussle with AFC East co-leading Jets. The Lions are a tough out in their own building as evidenced by four covers in four tries as hosts, This one provides a good opportunity for Detroit to showcase some of its promise while the circumstance surrounding it allows for them to catch this visitor slightly off guard. TAKING: LIONS +7

Saints (7-3) at Cowboys (3-7)

All that rah-rah stuff is nice with the seemingly revitalized Cowboys but when the smoke clears, there are still a multitude of issues that will not be resolved anytime soon. Dallas’s two wins since making a coaching change are anything but convincing. The Giants piled up 480 yards of offence but had a couple of key turnovers that were too much to overcome. Under Jon Kitna, the Cowboys did little last week against the Lions but were again beneficiaries of a couple of big plays that turned the tide in Dallas’ favour. Luckily, the perception following those two wins has lowered the price here and we’re happy to back this surging Saints at this reduced rate. TAKING: SAINTS –3½

Bengals (2-8) at Jets (8-2)

There is little to get worked up over with these Bengals but that’s not to say this setting does not offer a reasonable opportunity to back them. Cincinnati is at its best when little is expected of them. In the two games that they have been six or more underdogs, the Bungles have managed covers against both the Colts and Steelers. Jets are in a lot of close games and have huge contest with Patriots on deck. TAKING: BENGALS +8½

EZWINNERS

Texas A&M Aggies-3.5

The Longhorns need this win to become bowl eligible, but Texas A&M still has an outside shot at the Big 12 South title and can earn big bragging rights by beating their hated rival in Austin where the Aggies usually don't far very well. Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill is 4-0 since taking over as starter and big, physical receivers have had some big games against this Longhorns secondary and the Aggies Jeff Fuller will be the biggest and strongest that Texas has faced this season. On offense the Longhorns have been unable to establish a running game and their offensive line has not provided very good protection for Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert. The Aggies Von Miller is one of the best pass rushers in the Big XII and he could have a huge game against this make shift Texas offensive line. Lay the points.

Jimmy Moore

New Orleans @ Dallas
Pick: New Orleans -3.5

The resurgence of the Cowboys comes to a crashing halt on Thanksgiving Day. Dallas has ridden the emotional wave of the new coach and they benefitted last week by playing the bumbling Lions. Now they get to face the defending champs in a National TV showcase. New Orleans will be very ready to shine on their first every appearance on Thanksgiving Day.

Joel Tyson

Cincinnati at N.Y. JETS

Free play tonight on the Bengals-Jets to go over the total.

Can't see this one any other way, as the Bengals defense has allowed a whopping 29-plus points per game their last 7 times on the field, so it is not surprising they have lost ALL 7 of those games!

As for the Jets, they have been playing some high-scoring games this year, as 8 of their 10 games played have landed in the over column.

Throw in the back-to-back overs these 2 teams played to end the regular season, and the first round of the postseason, and you can definitely see why I expect the points to be adding up fast-and-furious.

Let's face it, Cincy has little left to play for, so they might as well let the pigskin fly.

Entertaining Turkey night shootout here.

Take the over.

3♦ OVER

Karl Garrett

Texas A&M at TEXAS (+3)

G-Man with a gut feeling on the Texas Longhorns this Thursday night, as Mack Brown's team has the opportunity to make up for their disappointing 5-6 ledger with a win over one of their hated rivals.

Texas A&M is cresting right now with 5 straight wins and covers, but they are in rarified air tonight, as they have not been favored in this series in eons, and their 2-8 straight up mark the last decade shows that a straight up win regardless of the schools current record will be tough to come by for the Aggs.

A&M was unable to reach the end zone last weekend in their win over Nebraska, and Texas does have some talent on the defensive side of the ball.

The Longhorns will also have some confidence brewing, as they did hang 51 on the scoreboard last weekend against Florida Atlantic. True, Texas A&M will be a little tougher to score on, but the 'Horns will leave it all on the field tonight in order to play spoiler to A&M's title plans in the South Division of the Big 12.

G-Man grabbing the points.

2♦ TEXAS

Chuck O'Brien

Texas A&M at TEXAS (+3')

For your complimentary selection on Thanksgiving Day, take Texas plus the points at home against Texas A&M in college football action.

Horrible, horrible season in Longhorn land, as Texas has gone from BCS Championship Game runner-up and preseason Top 5 team to 5-6 and on the verge of missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 13 years. But the Longhorns can still salvage something from this miserable campaign if they can topple archrival Texas A&M, which has won five in a row and needs to win here to keep alive its slim Big 12 title hopes.

What makes me think Texas can rise up tonight? Well, for one thing, pride. The Longhorns haven’t had a losing season since 1998, and if they want that streak to continue (and if they want to become bowl-eligible), they must win tonight. Texas has also dropped four consecutive Big 12 games (it has never lost five in a row in this league), and the ‘Horns have lost four times at home (they entered the season on a 15-game home winning streak) and this is obviously their home finale (of which they’ve won 16 of the last 17, going 15-2 ATS).

Texas also has history on its side. It has won the last two meetings by scores of 49-9 (home) and 49-39 (road), the ‘Horns are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings (all as a favorite), and the home team is on a 9-2-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.

Bottom line here: For Texas (which was a 14-point favorite in this game back in June) to be a home ‘dog against its archrival is a slap in the face to Mack Brown’s proud program. And I fully expect the Longhorns to use the underdog thing as motivation, and I expect them to win this game outright against A&M, which is 1-7 ATS in its last eight trips to Austin and is playing just its fourth road game of the season.

4♦ TEXAS

Bobby Maxwell

Texas A&M at TEXAS (+3')

For my comp selection, roles seem to be reversed in this rivalry game tonight as Texas A&M comes in on a five-game winning streak and ranked in the Top 20 while Texas just snapped a four-game losing streak and has dropped six of its last eight overall. But, like with all big rivalries, it usually doesn’t matter what the record is, this game is going to be close, so I’ll go ahead and grab the points with the Longhorns in this one.

Texas finally got some offense going in a 51-17 win over Florida Atlantic on Saturday, cashing in as 21.5-point favorites. That snapped a streak of four straight ugly games that saw them fail to top 22 points. In fact, this team had an eight-game streak of 24 points or less snapped with the win on Saturday.

But there is something about the Aggies that gets the Longhorns going as they have scored 49 points in each of the last two outings and 26 or more in eight of the last 10. Two seasons ago, the last time the Longhorns hosted, the final was 49-9 for Texas, cashing as 35-point favorites. I know the rosters are very different, but there is still that feeling of dominance the Longhorns have over the Aggies.

Texas QB Garrett Gilbert has completed 60 percent of his throw for 2,525 yards this season, but his problem has been untimely turnovers, throwing 15 INTS to just 9 TD passes.

The Aggies revival has come since the benching of preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Jerrod Johnson. Since QB Ryan Tannehill took over, the team has not lost and he has thrown for 10 TDs and just three INTs. They’ve also gone to a new RB in Cyrus Gray who has rushed for more than 100 yards in five straight games.

In this rivalry, the home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 years and the Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings at home. Texas is 7-3 ATS as underdogs, while the Aggies are just 1-7 ATS on Thursdays.

Texas needs a win to get to a bowl game, and these Longhorns don’t want to be the first team in recent memory to miss a bowl game for the Longhorns. Go ahead and grab the points with Texas and don’t be surprised when they win it outright.

2♦ TEXAS