Craig Davis
Washington (+8) at ATLANTA
Today's free play is on the Washington Wizards over Atlanta. Go look back at recent history and tell me how many times the Hawks have blown out the Wizards in history. Not many. In fact, the Hawks only have two double-digit wins in their eight season wins thus far. They are winning about 50% of the time but rarely find enough in the reserve tank to finish it out and blow their opponents out.
Atlanta (8-7) opened the season 6-0, but has struggled since and is now looking to end a three-game losing streak. The Hawks lost 107-101 in overtime at New Jersey on Tuesday in the opener of a six-game stretch against teams at or below .500.
The Hawks are looking to get off to a better start after struggling early in games. They’ve trailed after the first quarter in each of their last four, and Atlanta never led against New Jersey. I'm telling you... Atlanta is a good basketball team that just doesn't know how to put teams away and they are simply giving too many points in this one.
After a 115-110 overtime loss at Detroit on Sunday, Washington overcame a 17-point deficit Tuesday. John Wall, who missed the previous four games with a sprained left foot, was 40 feet from the basket when he was fouled on a 3-point attempt with 3.5 seconds left in regulation. The rookie sank all three free throws to send the game to overtime and Nick Young hit a 3-pointer with 7.6 seconds remaining in the extra period for the winning points.
Washington is a team on the verge of being a good basketball team, but they aren't there yet. Having said that, they aren't 9 points worse than Atlanta either. My free play of the day is on the Washington Wizards getting the points.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Derek Mancini
Washington at ATLANTA (-8)
Good spot for the Hawks, who come into this game losers of three in a row, and desperately seeking a win. Enter the Wizards, who bettors are guilty of overestiming, thanks to the having the second weakest strength of schedule in the NBA, failing to notch a single win against a team with a winning record. My point is while some may think laying this much is ridiculous, this is actually a great bounce back spot.
Looking at the match ups, Thornton's ankle injury is key, because without him defense's can key on Blantche. McGee has been playing well, but he'll be up against one of the better young centers in the NBA in Al Horford. We'll call the backcourt a push, because Johnson will get his, while obviously so will Wall.
Probabaly the biggest reason to play the Hawks here is their back-to-back dismal performances against the Celtics and Nets. Many bettors thought they would bounce back against New Jersey, but I was wary, making a small 10 Dime play on the Nets Tuesday. This however, is a true bounce back spot, and by the line we can tell the oddsmakers are trying to entice us to bet the Wiz. Not buying it, lay the points with Atlanta over Washington Thursday.
3♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
Sacramento at L.A. CLIPPERS (-3)
I am riding a five-game winning streak on my free NBA selections after cashing with Minnesota last night. Tonight I'm rolling with the Clippers to cover at home against Sacramento.
Hopefully you will have had enough Thursday sports viewing before this TNT stinker comes on. The Kings versus the Clippers. You would think TNT and the NBA could do better than this for late night viewers
This is truly bad on bad. But the Clippers are the right side in this matchup. This is just Sacramento's third road game this month. Los Angeles has been home for a week.
The Kings rank 27th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage shooting 43.7 percent. They are averaging only 80 points during their past three games.
Blake Griffin can dominate a weak Sacramento front-court that gets little scoring. The Clippers are off a confidence-building home win against New Orleans, which carried the best record in the NBA into that matchup.
Sacramento is 4-9 straight-up and ATS. The Kings' wins, though, have been against the Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Raptors and Nets. Those teams were a combined 19-37 through Tuesday.
The Clippers are just 2-13, but a more respectable 6-9 ATS. Two of those defeats occurred in overtime, one on the road to Utah.
3♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Charlie Scott
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: New Orleans Saints -3.5
I'm not drinking the Cowboy Kool Aid just yet. The Cowboys tried to give last week's game to the Lions, but caught some lucky breaks and calls from the officials. On defense the Cowboys Db's are banged up and struggle against the pass anyway. These guys struggled vs the lions and QB Shaun Hill, Drew Brees and company should have a big day. Saints Head Coach Payton is a former Dallas asst. Coach and I have to think he would like nothing more (Human Nature), to go into Dallas on Thanksgiving and have his team Play well !
Tom Stryker
Georgia @ Notre Dame
PICK: Notre Dame -6
Off four consecutive wins over Georgia Southern, Liberty, Chicago State and Maine, Notre Dame takes a holiday trip to central Florida to participate in the Old Spice Classic. This won't be all fun in the sun. The Irish are treating this as a business trip and they would like to bring home some hardware.
Opening up with Georgia could be ideal for the Irish especially if the Bulldogs are without the services of SEC preseason player of the year Trey Thompkins. Back on October 30th, Thompkins suffered a third degree high ankle sprain and has been on the shelf ever since. Even though Trey has been cleared to return, his practice time and minutes have been limited.
If you want to invest your hard earned dollars on Mike Brey's kids, the time to do it is when they're playing with momentum. According to my college basketball database, Notre Dame is a tremendous 32-17 ATS when taking the floor off two or more straight up wins provided the Irish are facing a foe that checks in off a straight up victory as well. If the Dame is favored in this role, this team trend improves to a juicy 17-5 ATS!
Ironically, Georgia has been at its worst when running the court against a team on a roll. The Dawgs are a soft 37-59 ATS provided they're priced as a dog of +10' or less and matched up against an opponent that enters off two or more straight up wins.
The Dame is doing a great job distributing the basketball averaging 23.0 assists per game this season and they can shoot from anywhere on the floor. Look for the Irish to pick up a nice win on Thanksgiving Day and advance with an impressive victory. Take Notre Dame.
Frank Jordan
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
Play: New England Patriots -6.5
Detroit is 2-8 in the last ten years on Thanksgiving and although they give a good fight and one of those two wins happened to be against the Patriots. This is not Detroit's year to do it again. New England is 8-2 and winning on the road this year and well Detroit is 2-8 and has a back up QB in. Look for New England to have their way with Detroit as Brady Feasts on the Lions secondary. Play New England
Sam Martin
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Jets and Bengals are heading in opposite directions, but we think it's too many points for New York to be laying here. Cincinnati has been just plain awful this year, but the Jets have not quite played as well as their record indicates. Each of the last four wins by the Jets have come by either four points or less or in overtime (beat Cleveland by 6 points in overtime), and we don't think they can cover this big spot. Cincy is bad on defense, but they can still put up some points. Jets win by less than a touchdown!
O.C. Dooley
Bengals / Jets Under 43.5
This is one of those wagers where I am following the lead of the oddsmakers. One has to wonder why this posted total is so low, considering that Cincinnati is coming off an amazing home collapse against Buffalo where the defense surrendered 49 points. This past Sunday the Jets were also involved in a high scoring 30-27 shootout. In the past 3 games New York quarterback Mark Sanchez has thrown for 950 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the overall offensive production has reached the 400 mark in each of those contests. Despite injuries Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer has registered “multiple” touchdown passes in SEVEN consecutive games. To put that statistic in proper perspective, Palmer had just 7 multi-touchdown performances in the prior 20 starts. Tonight the Bengals offense will be going up against a defense that in the past four games has allowed a grand total of 40 points. In a nutshell the two teams involved in this Turkey Night special have for the most part abandoned the rushing attack in recent weeks, preferring to put the football in the air. This is in stark contrast to last year’s playoffs when the Jets and Bengals thrived by rushing the football which created long drives and kept the respective defenses fresh by staying off the field for excessive stretches. One of the reasons why I am willing to go against the grain with this total has to do with the big buildup between Jets star corner Darrelle Revis and Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens. I am sure all of you have heard the negative comments Revis made about Owens early in the season and tonight he gets to prove himself again versus a high-profile opponent. Already this month Revis has for the most part shutdown Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson, so he certainly has the ability. While on the subject of wide receivers the Jets this evening will be without Jerricho Cotchery due to a groin injury. I am aware that New York has played above the total at a staggering 8-1 clip dating back to week-one, but they are 4-1 UNDER the last five times they have appeared on a Thursday NFL telecast. Cincinnati has actually ALTERNATED overs-and-unders the past 4 games, and that pattern has them slated to play an UNDER this evening. Ever since Marvin Lewis has been head coach Cincinnati has gone 6-0 UNDER/ROAD when up against excellent “ball control” opponents who average at least 32 possession minutes per game, in the “second half” of the season
Doug Upstone
Saints -3.5
FOX’s Terry Bradshaw and Dallas backers are thinking the Cowboys are back and might go 9-7, we’ll I got news for you, they are not and New Orleans proves that this week. Though Dallas won and covered against Detroit, the performance was hardly overwhelming with only 265 yards of offense. New Orleans has started to come together and the coaching staff has figured out ways to attack different defensive looks which had slowed them down in the first part of the season. Drew Brees should enjoy a wickedly good day against porous Dallas secondary. One thing lost in the Saints sluggish start was how well the defense has played, still ranking fourth overall and look for DC Greg Williams to test Jon Kitna in the pocket with heavy pass rush. In the end, road teams playing on Thursday that have won and covered two straight are 13-4 ATS and put another W in that angle with New Orleans winning by 9.
Scott Rickenbach
Washington @ Atlanta
PICK: Atlanta -7.5
Both of these teams are off of overtime games on Tuesday. However, while the Wizards were fortunate with a tight victory in overtime, the Hawks came out on the wrong end of the scoreboard. Having now lost 7 of their last 9 games, and with this being Atlanta’s final November home game, we expect the Hawks urgency level to be upped to a maximum for this game! As for the Wizards, even though they got the straight-up win Tuesday they failed to cover and they are now on an ugly 4-7 ATS run. They are facing the wrong team at the wrong time on Thursday as the Hawks will be in no mood to be hospitable hosts here. Note that Atlanta has won all nine match-ups between these teams the last three seasons and with a small drop in the line this morning we are now seeing even more value.
This is not a large number for the Hawks to cover and Atlanta is 15-9 ATS the last three seasons in a home game where the posted total is between 195 and 199.5 points. As for Washington, they are 9-26 ATS in divisional games the last three seasons combined. Also, though they play this game with revenge, note that the Wizards are just 48-74 ATS the last three seasons combined when they enter a game with revenge on their side. Also, after scoring 105 points or more in a game, the Wizards are 0-3 ATS this season and 16-28 ATS the last three seasons combined. Consider a small play on Atlanta minus the points on Thanksgiving Thursday.
Hollywood Sports
Georgia at Notre Dame
Prediction: Georgia
Georgia (3-0) returns four starters from last season's 14-17 team and optimism is high in Athens as this is one of the most experienced teams in the SEC. This team comes off a nice 61-59 win on the road in St. Louis. Three starters are averaging at least 16 PPG in their first three games. While Notre Dame is 4-0, this will be their first game on the board -- so that should give you some insight into their quality of competition. Getting 6 or so points is very valuable against an Irish team that has dramatically slowed their pace against quality competition. In their first fourteen Big East games last season, Notre Dame was averaging 66 possessions per 40 minutes of play. Their defense was also allowing 1.13 Points Per Possession which is very high. Coach Mike Brey decided to take their "burn" offensive scheme that slows the game down to take time off the clock and play it for an entire game. The result was that the Irish averaged just 56 possessions per 40 minutes in their last four Big East games. However, the Notre Dame's defense dramatically improved as they allowed only 0.98 PPP over that four-game stretch. Expect the Irish to slow this game down as well -- making those six points very valuable for some insurance. Take the points with Georgia.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +7½ over ATLANTA
The Atlanta Hawks have a whole bunch of quality players but it takes more than that to win at this level. Here’s a team that was absolutely whacked by the Magic in last year’s playoffs and frankly they didn’t belong on the same court with Orlando; that’s how ugly it was. The Hawks are made up of players with talent but very little grit and a whole lot of selfishness. Against determined and cohesive units they have little chance of success and that was once against proven in its last game when the Celtics led by 30 points throughout the whole game and finished them off easily. The Hawks usually get badly outrebounded and outworked. The Wizards of Washington have less talent but a whole lot more determination and the effort and leadership of John Wall is immeasurable. JaVale McGee is becoming more of a factor every game, Gilbert Arenas is contributing nicely and so too is Andray Blatche. The Wiz have won three of its last five games, they’re gaining steam and they’re on the right path while the Hawks are a team that losing steam and going downhill fast. Atlanta is on the verge of a major meltdown and you can see it in everything they do. Give us the more determined bunch plus a bunch of points against a squad that is reeling and looks worse with each passing game. Play: Washington +7½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).