John Ryan
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +6.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver as they take on the NY Giants set to start at 8:20 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that Denver will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-10 ATS for 75% winners since 1983. Play against road favorites and is a good team +3 to +7 PPG differential facing an average team +/- 3 PPG differential and after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. This has not been a good time fo the year for the Giants and this is a tough assignment against a desperate team. Coughlin is just 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. Here is a supporting system supporting a possible upset Denver win. This MONEY LINE system has gone 25-7 making 18 units since 1983. Play on home teams versus the money line off a home loss against a division rival and is a decent team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and playing a team with a winning record. AiS shows a 90% probability that the Giants will not score more than 21 points. Note that Denver is 7-1 against the money line (+8.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons. A key matchup to watch is Denver WR Brandon Marshall going up against CB Corey Webster. Marshall has excellent size and athleticism. Webster loves to jam marquee WR at the LOS, but one of Marshall’s greatest assets is eluding those press coverage situations. If Webster can’t jam him and is playing off than short curl routes and slant routes will be easy completions. If he is at the LOS then look for Marshall to run a deep vertical route. Take Denver.
Craig Trapp
Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -13.5
The books are begging us bettors to fall for this trap and take the horrible Raiders. Well we are not falling for it. Dallas has played their two worst games of the year in back to back games, and are really looking forward to getting back onto the field to show they really are not that bad. Dallas will be able to pick apart the Oakland defense with the power running game setting up some deep play action passing. Oakland is coming off an upset of the Bengals that really was given to them due to some unforced turnovers by the Bengals. The Bengals dominated the Oakland defense marching up and down the field. Only 4 turnovers, two of which were in the red zone, kept Cincy from absolutely blowing out the Raiders. Oakland's offense was pitiful for the last 5 weeks and a very good DALLAS defense will keep them out of the end zone. Expect the Raiders only scoring to be by special teams or the defense. Dallas always play good on thansgiving and this year will be no different.
Lenny Del Genio
New York Giants at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Under
Much like last Thursdays matchup between the Dolphins and Panthers, it is amazing to see how much these two teams respective seasons mirror one another. Both started 5-0 straight up, covering the number in every game (Note that Denver actually started 6-0 SU/ATS), but since that time the Giants and Broncos have each left their backers broke.
These teams have met very infrequently through the years, in fact just five times since the Giants 39-20 win in Super Bowl XXI (1987). The home team has won every time. However, this time the oddsmakers are predicting a SU victory for the visitors as New York comes in favored by a touchdown. Thats up from the opening number of 5.5.
The G-Men have failed to cash in five straight games while the Broncos have failed to cash four in a row. Something has to give here. When you have two teams struggling like this against the spread, it is usually wise to take the points, but what we are going to do instead here is take a look at the total.
With Denvers offense struggling so mightily over the last four weeks, it should come as no surprise that the Broncos now stand at 8-2 Under on the season. That includes a perfect 5-0 Under mark here at home. Since 1992, the Giants have gone Under 10 straight times as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Against teams whose offense is averaging 350+ yards per game, Denver has gone Under in seven straight. Looks like we have all the makings of a low-scoring affair on Thanksgiving night!
MTi Sports
New York Giants at Denver Broncos
Prediction: New York Giants
The Giants are 8-0 ATS (+14.6 ppg) versus any team with the same record after a straight up win at home and the Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-9.8 ppg) versus any team with the same record. Also, Denver is 0-6 ATS (-8.7 ppg) at home vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents and the Giants are 6-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since September 26, 1999 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. Consider laying the points.
ALEX SMART
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
PICK: Detroit Lions
The first leg of the Turkey Day triple-header takes us to Ford Field where the Green Bay Packers (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) will look to go 2-0 SU & ATS vs. the Detroit Lions (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) this season. The green and gold smashed the Lions 26-0 back in Week 6 as 14-point home favorites. They’ve won eight in a row against the Lions and have covered the closing number 6 of the L/7 times in this NFC North rivalry.
Kudos must go out to HC Mike McCarthy and the Packers for not giving up on the season after they suffered a pair of brutal defeats to both Minnesota and Tampa Bay in back-to-back weeks. Since then, they have fired back with consecutive impressive victories, a 17-7 win over Dallas and last week's 30-24 victory over San Francisco. The six-point MOV against the Niners is a bit misinforming as the Packers dominated that game through three quarters only to let up in the 4th and allow the Niners to sneak in through the backdoor. QB Aaron Rodgers is having a marvelous ’09 campaign, and should surpass the 3,000-yard barrier in passing yards and the 20 TD mark as well on Sunday.
The Lions picked up a miraculous home victory last week against the Cleveland Browns, and even though they failed to cover the spread, they enter today’s Turkey Day battle riding a wave of forward momentum. QB Matthew Stafford had the best game of his young career against the Browns, throwing for 422 yards and five TDs, including the game-winning score as time expired. He became the youngest quarterback in NFL history to chuck five TDs in a game, with the last one coming while battling a separated shoulder. Kids got heart! Unfortunately, he probably won’t go in this one just to make sure a hit doesn’t exacerbate the condition. Instead, look for QB Daunte Culpepper to get the starting nod.
Even though all signs point to a Green Bay domination, don't count out how frisky Detroit can be in this one. The Lions haven't won at home on Thanksgiving Day since 2003 when it beat these Packers 22-14. This is a heck of a lot of points to be giving any home team in the NFL, especially one that has proven to be a nuisance to plenty of teams this season. Even though the Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their L/4 games, they very well could be 4-0 as well. They'll get back in the ATS win column on Turkey Day. Gobble Gobble…
Wunderdog
New York Giants at Denver
Pick: Denver +6.5
Denver hit a low last week. After a 6-0 start, they have lost four in a row, the last game a 32-3 drubbing that allowed San Diego to take over the division lead - something that seemed unthinkable when they owned a 3.5 game lead just four weeks ago. They have been outscored 117-37 over their losing streak. Even during their winning streak, Denver didn't get much support from the oddsmakers or public. After four weeks of horrid football, no one wants to touch them. The oddsmakers had to open them as a big home dog, and the public has pushed the line even higher. I believe Denver is ready to make a stand. New York comes in here off a win, but is this team really deserving of a TD-road favorite role? Before last week's win, the Giants had lost four in a row. They haven't covered the spread in five straight games. And, even in the win their defense gave up 31 points. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 164 points - 32.8 per game! That's just the kind of defense that Denver needs to face right now. Coming in off a very short week, it's not likely that New York was able to remedy what ails them defensively. So there's no reason to expect a major change this week. Antonio Pierce is still out and that only makes matters worse for the G-Men defense. On offense, the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw. With Brandon Jacobs having a bad year, and coming off a leg injury, don't expect the Giants to run the ball particularly well, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked 7th in the league in points allowed. Give me the home team with the much better defense, getting a touchdown.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Green Bay (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) at Detroit (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS)
The Lions, coming off just their second win since 2007, kick off Thanksgiving in their traditional spot when they face the division rival Packers at Ford Field.
Detroit squeaked past equally dismal Cleveland 38-37 Sunday on a last-second Matthew Stafford TD pass, failing to cover as a rare 3½-point favorite. It was a breakout performance for Stafford, who went 26 of 43 for a whopping 422 yards and five TDs, with two INTs. However, the rookie suffered an injured left shoulder and likely will sit out this game, which would make veteran Daunte Culpepper the starter.
Even with Stafford, the Lions still have to overcome their porous defense, which rates 31st in yards allowed (391.5 ypg) – ahead of only the Browns – and dead last in points allowed (30.1 ppg). Also, their secondary is the worst in the league, yielding 275 passing ypg while giving up 24 TD passes versus just six interceptions.
Green Bay held off San Francisco 30-24 on Sunday, settling for a push as a six-point chalk after jumping out to a 23-3 halftime lead. QB Aaron Rodgers (32 of 45, 344 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs vs. 49ers) leads a Packers offense that ranks seventh in the NFL in total yards (378 ypg) and eighth in scoring (26.2 ppg). Perhaps a bigger key for the Packers, though, is their league-leading turnover margin of plus-14, as they’ve forced 22 turnovers while committing just eight.
Green Bay blanked Detroit 26-0 last month as a hefty 14-point home chalk and has now won eight straight in this NFC North rivalry (6-2 ATS). The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the Packers are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Ford Field. One trend supporting Detroit: the home team is 17-7-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
The Packers are on ATS upswings of 16-7-1 on the highway, 9-4 as a road chalk and 8-3 inside the division, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 2-6 on Thursday, 1-4-1 in November, 1-4-1 after a SU win, 4-15-2 laying more than 10 points and 0-4 as a road chalk of that same price.
The Lions are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 when catching more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home pup of that price, but the ATS streaks spiral downward from there, including 0-4-1 overall, 3-11 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-5 on Thursday, 3-8 as a home pup and 7-18-1 in November. Plus, Detroit is 2-25 SU (9-17-1 ATS) in its last 27 games overall.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 24-10-1 overall, 12-4-1 on the road, 5-1 in November, 5-1 with the Pack giving more than 10 points and 19-7 with the Packers as a road favorite. Likewise, the over for Detroit is on runs of 21-10-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU win, 8-2 in November, 11-3-1 against winning teams and 20-7 as a pup of more than 10 points, though the under has hit in five of the Lions’ last seven home games and five of their last seven Thursday affairs.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five overall and four of the last five in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at Dallas (7-3, 5-5 ATS)
The Cowboys, standing alone atop the NFC East, look to bolster their playoff credentials when they take on the upset-minded Raiders in a non-conference clash at Cowboys Stadium.
Dallas needed a late fourth-quarter TD just to sneak past struggling Washington 7-6 on Sunday, falling well short of covering as an 11-point home chalk. Three weeks ago, the Cowboys were among the top scoring teams in the league, having put up 26 points or more five times in eight games, including breaking 30 points four times. The past two weeks, though, they’ve managed just 14 total points. Still, Dallas remains fifth in total offense at 381.9 ypg, and its defense is yielding just 17.5 ppg (fifth).
Oakland sprang its second big upset of the year last week, toppling red-hot Cincinnati 20-17 as a nine-point home chalk, a month after besting Philadelphia 13-9 getting 14 points at home. Sunday’s win snapped a three-game SU skid (1-2 ATS) for the Raiders, whose offense received a big lift with the insertion of QB Bruce Gradkowski, who replaced the woeful JaMarcus Russell and threw a game-tying TD pass in the final minute. Still, Oakland ranks last in total offense (227.3 ypg) and last in scoring offense, barely cracking double digits at 10.8 ppg.
These teams have met just twice this decade in the regular season, with Oakland going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, the Raiders won 19-13 as a 3½-point home favorite in October 2005.
The Cowboys have won and covered four straight Thursday games – including last year’s 34-9 Thanksgiving Day rout of Seattle as an 11½-point favorite – and they’re are on ATS runs of 12-4 in November, 7-3 at home, 4-0 on Thursday and 18-6-2 at home against teams with a losing road record. However, after last week’s non-cover against the Redskins, Dallas is now just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 as a double-digit chalk.
The Raiders are on ATS skids of 5-12 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a SU win and 10-22-1 in non-division roadies.
The under is on streaks for Dallas of 4-1 in November and 48-23-3 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on tears of 12-3-1 in November, 40-17-2 against winning teams and 5-2-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
N.Y. Giants (6-4, 4-6) at Denver (6-4 SU and ATS)
The Broncos aim to get their derailed season back on track in a prime-time inter-conference showdown against the Giants at Invesco Field at Mile High.
Denver got hammered by San Diego 32-3 Sunday as a 6½-point home underdog, losing and failing to cover for the fourth straight week, following a 6-0 SU and ATS start. The Broncos have been held to 17 points or less in all four losses, getting outscored by a whopping combined total of 117-37 (20 ppg). The offense is rapidly sliding, as it is now 22nd in total yards (323 ypg) and 25th in scoring (17 ppg), and though Denver is allowing 18.3 ppg for the year, that number has ballooned to an average of 29.3 ppg during its current four-game skid.
Broncos QB Kyle Orton didn’t start last week due to a foot injury but did end up entering the game in the first half for the ineffective Chris Simms. Orton is probable for this game.
New York, which started out 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) before going on its own 0-4 SU and ATS plunge, finally bounced back with a 34-31 overtime win against Atlanta on Sunday, though it still failed to cash as a seven-point home chalk. The Giants are fourth in the league in total offense (385.5 ypg), ranking seventh in rushing (133.8 ypg) and eighth in passing (251.7 ypg), while scoring 26.6 ppg (tie for sixth). They’re also second in the league in total defense, allowing a stingy 282.2 total ypg.
These non-conference rivals have met just twice this decade, with Denver going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU), most recently losing 24-23 but covering as a 2½-point road pup in October 2005. The SU winner has cashed in the Broncos’ last 13 games and eight of the Giants’ last nine.
Along with their current 0-5 ATS slide, the Giants are in pointspread funks of 0-5 against winning teams, 0-4 as a chalk and 15-32-2 in November. That said, New York still sports positive ATS streaks of 22-6 on the highway, 8-2 as a road favorite and 24-8 after a SU win. The Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen as a home pup (2-2 ATS in that spot this year), but they are otherwise on ATS freefalls of 7-19-1 overall at home (0-2 last two), 0-4 in November, 0-5 after a SU loss, 7-23 after a non-cover and 7-15 versus winning teams.
New York is on “over” runs of 6-2-1 in November, 3-1-1 on the highway and 5-2-1 as a road chalk. On the flip side, Denver is on “under” stretches of 8-2 overall, 10-1 at Invesco, 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 when the Broncos are a home pup and 8-1-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(3) Texas (11-0, 5-5-1 ATS) at Texas A&M (6-5, 5-5-1 ATS)
The Longhorns, who have a berth in the BCS Championship Game well within their grasp, cap the regular season with a trip to College Station, Texas, for the annual Thanksgiving weekend battle with Big 12 South rival Texas A&M.
Texas jumped out to a 34-6 lead midway through the third quarter against Kansas on Saturday and cruised to a 51-20 victory as a 28-point home favorite. The Longhorns rolled up 532 yards of total offense, with senior QB Colt McCoy going 32-for-41 for 396 yards with four TDs and no INTs in his final home game. McCoy has guided Texas to 29-2 record since October 2007, with the only losses being upset defeats on the road at instate foes Texas Tech (39-33 last year, giving up the winning touchdown with one second left) and Texas A&M (38-30 in the 2007 regular-season finale).
Since a 16-13 win over rival Oklahoma as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17, the Longhorns have scored, 41, 41, 35, 57 and 51 points in their last five outings – winning those five games by an average of 31.4 points – while going 4-1 ATS (4-0 ATS in Big 12 play). Mack Brown’s team has clinched the Big 12 South title and will face Nebraska next Saturday in the conference title game.
The Aggies halted a two-game SU and ATS slide with Saturday’s 38-3 rout of Baylor, easily covering as a 5½-point home favorite. Texas A&M has scored at least 31 points in eight of its 11 games this year – including averaging 43.3 ppg in six victories – but it was held under 20 points in its other three contests against Arkansas (47-19 loss), Kansas State (62-14 loss) and Oklahoma (65-10 loss). And while Mike Sherman’s squad has won five of its six true home games (4-1-1 ATS), the one loss came against then-No. 15 Oklahoma State (36-31 as a five-point home ‘dog).
Texas avenged consecutive upset losses to Texas A&M – 12-7 as a 14-point home favorite in 2006; 38-30 as a seven-point road chalk in 2007 – with last year’s 49-9 rout, covering as a 35-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-2 in the last nine meetings, but just 5-4 ATS (1-3 ATS last four). In fact, Texas has failed to cover in four of its last five trips to College Station, and the home team is on a 9-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
McCoy has enjoyed an outstanding senior season, completing 73 percent of his throws for 3,024 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs. But while the offense has hit its stride over the last five weeks, the defense has been a rock all year long. Texas has held eight of 11 opponents to 14 points or less and ranks seventh in scoring defense (13.3 ppg), fourth in total defense (239.6 yards per game) and 22nd in pass defense (188.6 ypg). Most impressively, the Longhorns lead the nation in rush defense, allowing a national-low 51 rushing ypg and 1.7 yards per carry, and only Florida (3 rushing TDs allowed) have given up fewer rushing scores than Texas (4).
Aggies junior QB Jerrod Johnson has had a solid season, with a 59.4 percent completion rate for 2,875 yards, 24 TDs and five INTs, and he’s also added 358 rushing yards and eight additional scores. In fact, Texas A&M averages 190.5 rushing ypg. However, A&M’s defense has been a problem all year, yielding 31.2 points, 416.3 total yards and 157.3 rushing ypg (4.3 yards per carry).
In addition to their 4-1-1 overall ATS run (4-0-1 in conference), the Longhorns are on additional pointspread streaks of 8-2 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 as a double-digit favorite. Texas A&M is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a home underdog of more than 10 points, but otherwise the Aggies are in ATS slumps of 3-8-1 as a dog in any situation, 1-5-1 when catching points at home, 0-6 on Thursday, 16-34-1 after a SU win and 1-9 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
The SU winner is 25-4-1 ATS in Texas A&M’s last 30 games, including 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine.
The over is 18-7-1 in Texas’ last 26 roadies, 15-6-1 in its last 22 as a road favorite and 7-3 in its last 10 in November. The Aggies are also on a slew of “over” streaks, including 5-2 overall, 13-4-1 in Big 12 games, 33-16-2 as an underdog, 5-1 as a home underdog, 6-1-1 as a pup of more than 10 points, 7-2 against winning teams, 5-1 on Thursday and 17-8-1 in November.
Conversely, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these schools and 5-1-1 in the last six battles at Texas A&M.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(24) Minnesota (3-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. (11) Butler (3-0, 1-2 ATS)
(at Anaheim, Calif.)
Butler tries to knock off its second Big Ten opponent this season when it faces the Golden Gophers in a clash of unbeaten ranked opponents in the opening round of the 76 Classic in Anaheim.
Minnesota has yet to be tested this year, pounding out home wins over inferior opponents Tennessee Tech (87-50), Stephen F. Austin (82-42) and Utah Valley State (76-51). The Gophers are off to a strong start for the second consecutive year, as they won their first 12 games last season and began 16-1 before fading down the stretch, losing 10 of their final 16 contests.
The Bulldogs followed up an impressive 67-54 win at Northwestern as a 4 ½-point road chalk by barely squeaking past Evansville on Saturday, holding on 64-60 but falling way short as a 12½-point road favorite. Butler is 7-2 SU in its last nine games going back to last season.
Both teams play tremendous defense, as Minnesota has given up just 47.7 points per game on 34 percent shooting, while the Bulldogs have limited their first three opponents to 58.7 ppg on 42.1 percent shooting. Dating to last year, the Gophers have allowed more than 64 points just five times in their last 17 games, and Butler has limited 19 of its last 22 opponents – including 10 of the last 11 – to 63 points or fewer, with 13 of those 19 scoring less than 60 points.
Minnesota went 8-2-1 ATS in its first 11 lined contests last year, but since then Tubby Smith’s squad is mired in a 5-13 ATS funk. Additionally, the Golden Gophers are on pointspread slides of 3-9 at neutral sites, 1-4 on Thursday, 3-8 against opponents with a winning record and 0-6 after a SU win, but they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference tilts.
With the win and cover at Northwestern, Butler is 6-1 SU in its last seven against Big Ten opponents, going 4-0-1 ATS in its last five, and the Bulldogs have also covered in 36 of their last 52 non-conference games and five of seven on Thursday. But they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four at neutral sites.
The under is 5-2 in the Gophers’ last seven at neutral sites and 4-0 in Butler’s last four against the Big Ten. However, the over is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven on Thursday, and the Bulldogs carry “over” trends of 9-4 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 7-1 at neutral sites and 5-0 on Thursday.
The winner of this contest will face either UCLA or Portland in Friday’s semifinals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUTLER
NBA
Orlando (11-4, 9-6 ATS) at Atlanta (11-3 SU and ATS)
The Magic begin a three-game road trip with a stop at Philips Arena to face the Hawks in the first meeting of the season between the Southeast Division’s top two teams.
Orlando’s five-game winning streak was snapped in Wednesday’s last-second, 99-98 home loss to Miami as a 9½-point favorite, a setback that dropped the Magic a half-game behind Atlanta in the division standings. Orlando had gone 4-1 ATS during its win streak while yielding just 86.2 points per game, but last night the Magic surrendered more than 96 points for just the seventh time this season.
Atlanta has been idle since Saturday, when it suffered a surprising 96-88 loss at New Orleans as a five-point road favorite, snapping a seven-game winning streak. The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in their last two contests following a 6-0 ATS run. Atlanta, which averaged 109.4 ppg during its winning streak, has tallied at least 97 points in 12 of its 14 games – topping triple digits nine times – but the Hawks have scored just 88 and 83 in their last two losses. Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 at home (6-1 ATS), outscoring visitors by an average of 13 ppg (110.7-97.7).
These rivals opened the season against each other last year, with Atlanta scoring a 99-85 upset victory as an eight-point road underdog, but the Magic came back and won the final three meetings both SU and ATS. That includes a pair of narrow wins at Philips Arena by scores of 106-102 (as two-point underdog) and 88-82 (as a 1½-point road favorite). The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 13 series battles, and the visitor is on a 4-1 ATS roll.
Orlando is rising positive pointspread streaks of 4-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 14-6 against Eastern Conference opponents and 7-2 inside the division. Likewise, the Hawks are on ATS runs of 11-3 on the season, 20-8-2 at home, 5-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2 in Southeast Division contests and 5-1-1 versus winning teams.
The Magic have topped the total in seven of their last 10 games when playing on back-to-back nights, and the over for the Hawks is on runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 at home. However, the under is on stretches of 5-0 for Orlando on the road, 13-3 for Orlando on Thursday and 8-2 for Atlanta on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Charlie Scott
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +6
After you have stuffed yourself with Turkey, and had enough family time, there's no better way to wind down Thanksgiving night, than having a play on the dog. The oddsmaker has had a bad rating on the Bronco's all season and I feel tonights number is way too high. Shop around, you can find better than +6 right now. When the Patriots went into Denver the Pats were -3, and Dallas was -2.5. Neither team the Broncos or Giants are playing their best Football right now, compared to when the season started. This is a play as long as Denver QB Orton starts as expected. The Giants defense can't stop the pass, and Denver has the weapons on offense to exploit a bad Giant pass defense to score enough points to keep this game close. The Giants defense will miss LB Pierce who is out and was the QB of the defense. Throw in Denver's Home Field advantage, the Giants traveling across the country on a short week, and the Denver fans will be loud tonight,
Freddy Wills
Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Oakland Raiders +14
The Cowboys offense has not been clicking and the Raiders are very solid defensively. I mean this team lost to the Chargers twice by a combined 12 points still under the spread here. Are they really this bad now that they have Russell out of there? I don't think so. Gradkowski can hit his receivers accurately and the Raiders defense which is not what its ranks say it is should hold the Cowboys in check for most of the day at least to cover this aggressive spread set by Vegas. It appears Vegas is just asking you to take the Cowboys at -13.5 and I'm not biting rather I'm shopping and finding it at +14 in favor of the Raiders. Remember these AFC teams are better than the NFC as we have seen over the past 5 years. The defensive talent level is there for the Raiders it only matters how much they will be up for this game? The Raiders have a tendency to not show up, but it has only happened against the two New York teams this year every other game was competitive. On Thanksgiving Day and a chance to prove to the nation they are not a joke I expect them to play better than many expect but they'll come up short in a tight one.
LT Profits
Portland vs UCLA
The Portland Pilots are a senior laden team that is off to a 3-0 start and just beat Oregon at home, but while the UCLA Bruins are much younger, we feel their athleticism and the fact that this is practically a home game in Anaheim should be enough to get the safe win here.
In fact, this is an excellent eight-team field assembled for the 76 Classic, as it includes four teams currently ranked in the top 25 (West Virginia, Clemson, Butler, Minnesota), and if either the Bruins or the Pilots can go deep in this tourney, it would be a great jump-start tom their year and it would bode well for their chances in March.
While the Pilots are 3-0, it should be noted that they opened with a couple of cupcakes in Eastern Washington and Seattle University, and while the 88-81 victory over Oregon was more significant, it did come at home and Portland was actually a slight favorite in that game. The fact that they allowed 81 points to a seemingly outclassed Seattle team before allowing 81 again to Oregon is a big red flag coming into what should be their toughest test of the early season.
Now the Bruins were upset by CS Fullerton in their opener, but keep in mind that UCLA lost four starters from last season, so we will forgive them for that slow start. They did rebound with a nine-point win over Santa Barbara and a 19-point romp over Pepperdine, and they have continued to play their trademark defense despite the large turnover in personnel, allowing only 61.3 points per game on a scant 40.6 percent shooting.
We look for that defense to slow the Pilots down and key the victory in front of a mostly supportive crowd.
Free Pick: UCLA -5
BIG AL
New York Giants at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Denver Broncos
This isn't so much a play AGAINST New York as it is a play ON the Broncos, as Denver falls into a system of mine that's 80-50 ATS (61.5%) since 1980. What we want to do is play on any home team that has a winning record on the season, provided it lost at home in its previous game, and is now not favored by 9 or more points. Last week, the Broncos were drubbed 32-3 by the Chargers at home, so they fall into our 80-50 ATS angle. And if our "play on" team scored 3 points or less in that most recent game, then our 80-50 stat zooms to a perfect 8-0 ATS. Take the Broncos.
Jim Feist
Chicago Bulls vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Over 194
Chicago puts up a good fight at home, but they lay down on the road defensively, which is commong with young teams. This has been a lousy road trip, giving up 108, 112 and 122 points in three games (all losses). They are 2-1 over the total the last three games. They take on a Utah team that has the offense flowing, going 4-2 over the total the last 6 games. For the season, they are averaging and allowing over 99 ppg. Both these teams are ranked in the bottom half of the NBA (14th and 20th) in field goal shooting percentage defense. Chicago has very good three-point shooting weapons and Utah is allowing 36% shooting from long range, 20th in the NBA. Look for an offensive show on Turkey Day, play the Bulls/Jazz Over the total.
Rob Vinciletti
Texas A&M vs. Clemson
Play: Texas A&M +6
The Aggies are a solid 21-4 after scoring 60 or less points. They bounce back big from these low scoring affairs. In the month of November they are a solid 15-1 the last few years. On neutral courts they have been a formidable foe covering 10 of the last 13 times,as well as 14 of the last 21 times as an underdog. Clemson is just 1-4 su-ats as a neutral court favorite recently.
JR TIPS
Raiders at Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys have struggled on offense of late as they expect a banged-up Tony Romo to play today, but they could be without leading receiver Jason Witten who has a team-best 54 catches for 481 yards but sprained his foot against the Redskins when they host the Oakland Raiders. Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of its last two games losing 17-7 at Green Bay and winning 7-6 over Washington on Sunday. Romo has two touchdowns and two interceptions the last two games and completed 15 of 27 passes for 158 yards Sunday capping a nine-play 60-yard drive with a 10-yard touchdown to Patrick Crayton to beat the Redskinks with 2:41 minutes left in the game. Dallas will see former defensive end Greg Ellis who spent his first 11 seasons with the Cowboys before playing outside linebacker the last two seasons with the Raider. Ellis has a team-high five sacks, including one of three on Carson Palmer in Sunday's 20-17 victory over Cincinnati as Oakland ended its three-game skid behind Bruce Gradkowski who made his first start of the season. Gradkowski finished an 80-yard drive by completing a tying 29-yard touchdown pass to rookie Louis Murphy with 33 seconds to go as the Raiders' 20 points matched a season high. The Raiders have been tough on defense all year and if the offense can substain a few drives, they will always have a chance to win. Raiders All-Pro conerback Asomugha will be matched up with either Miles Austin or Roy Williams as Austin has team highs of 679 yards and seven receiving touchdowns. The Raiders wil be playing with a lot of momentum after winning last weekend and the Cowboys have had a short week to prepare against a quarterback they have not seen on tape until last game. This makes the Raiders a dangerous team that could win the game outright. This is way to many points for the Cowboys and their enimic offense to lay today.
TAKE OAKLAND +13
Randall the Handle
Giants @ Broncos
The Broncos stock has obviously dropped. Having lost four straight after their incredible 6-0 start, investors are more apt to sell than buy right now. However, sometimes stocks are undervalued. It's not like Denver is facing some juggernaut team. The Giants have defeated only one of their past five opponents and have failed to cover in five straight. New York's offence is most efficient when balancing the run with the pass. That might be difficult with RB Brandon Jacobs nursing a sore knee. In addition, the G-Men are experiencing significant issues in their secondary and that may allow QB Kyle Orton to get well after facing six solid defences. This number is grossly overstated.
TAKING: Denver +6
RISKING: 2.1 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Packers @ Lions
The injuries to Lions QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson may be more publicized but Green Bay's recent losses may be more significant. The Packers have lost an important pair of defensive starters with cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampfman gone for the season. Their absence was felt immediately in last week's game as the 49ers stormed back from a 23-3 halftime deficit to almost pull off win. With Green Bay traveling on short week, spotting huge points within division and having to replace key players, Detroit gets the nod.
TAKING: Detroit +11
Raiders @ Cowboys
Not sure which team is more screwy? Is it the Raiders team that went 0-4 to the Broncos, Texans, Giants and Jets by a combined 134-16 but defeated both the Bengals and Eagles and competing the Chargers twice? Or is it the beloved Cowboys whose offence scored 126 points en route to four consecutive wins before amassing a mere 14 points these past two weeks? With QB Bruce Gradkowski now leading the Black & Silver, the team feels better about itself and we'll feel slightly better taking these points than offering them.
TAKING: Oakland +13