Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 27

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

UCLA vs. North Carolina
The Bruins look to bounce back from yesterday's 75-65 loss to Oklahoma and come into today's contest with a 14-3 ATS record in their last 17 games following an ATS defeat. UCLA is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+2).

Game 501-502: Santa Clara vs. Tennessee (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 55.969; Tennessee 68.482
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-5 1/2)

Game 503-504: Kansas vs. Rhode Island (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 71.109; Rhode Island 61.019
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 10
Vegas Line: Kansas by 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-8)

Game 505-506: Rider vs. Michigan State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 48.385; Michigan State 71.222
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 23
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 16
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-16)

Game 507-508: Marquette vs. Georgia Tech (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 56.324; Georgia Tech 62.549
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 6
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-4 1/2)

Game 509-510: Robert Morris vs. UL-Monroe (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 47.915; UL-Monroe 48.617
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 1
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+2 1/2)

Game 511-512: Coastal Carolina at Chattanooga (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 53.386; Chattanooga 51.122
Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+4 1/2)

Game 513-514: Butler vs. Oklahoma (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 61.351; Oklahoma 74.062
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 13
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-4 1/2)

Game 515-516: Georgetown vs. Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 65.043; Wisconsin 78.236
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 13
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 8
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-8)

Game 517-518: North Carolina vs. UCLA (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 69.942; UCLA 70.494
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 1
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+2)

Game 519-520: UAB vs. Florida (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 54.254; Florida 63.425
Dunkel Line: Florida by 9
Vegas Line: Florida by 15
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+15)

Game 521-522: Princeton vs. UTEP (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 46.567; UTEP 59.835
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-7 1/2)

Game 523-524: San Diego vs. Xavier (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 58.416; Xavier 71.039
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-9 1/2)

Game 525-526: Long Beach State vs. Western Michigan (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 59.518; Western Michigan 54.023
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-3)

Game 527-528: San Jose State vs. Washington (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 44.206; Washington 62.845
Dunkel Line: Washington by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 12
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-12)

Game 529-530: Austin Peay vs. Brown (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 42.615; Brown 48.947
Dunkel Line: Brown by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Brown by 5
Dunkel Pick: Brown (-5)

Game 531-532:Illinois vs. Indiana State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 69.810; Indiana State 53.199
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-13 1/2)

Game 533-534: Stephen F. Austin vs. Prairie View A&M (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 59.301; Prairie View A&M 42.986
Dunkel Line: Stephen F. Austin by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Stephen F. Austin by 13
Dunkel Pick: Stephen F. Austin (-13)

Game 535-536: Baylor vs. Memphis (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 71.153; Memphis 64.001
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 7
Vegas Line: Baylor by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-3 1/2)

Game 537-538: Florida International at USC Upstate (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 50.744; USC Upstate 56.308
Dunkel Line: USC Upstate by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: USC Upstate by 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+8)

Game 539-540: CS-Fullerton vs. Wright State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 49.710; Wright State 54.544
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 5
Vegas Line: Wright State by 7
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (+7)

Game 541-542: Stony Brook vs. LIU-Brooklyn (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 52.176; LIU-Brooklyn 41.025
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 11
Vegas Line: Stony Brook by 8
Dunkel Pick: Stony Brook (-8)

Game 543-544: Western Kentucky vs. St. Joseph's (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 50.074; St. Joseph's 56.400
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 1
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (-1)

Game 545-546: Rice vs. Mercer (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 46.721; Mercer 51.928
Dunkel Line: Mercer by 5
Vegas Line: Mercer by 7
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+7)

Game 547-548: Washington State vs. UC-Santa Barbara (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 51.961; UC-Santa Barbara 51.880
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+7)

Tony George

Dallas -3

There is where Sanchez meets his match at QB in my opinion, against an aggressive Dallas defense that played terrible on Monday Night Football. Sanchez's 2 wins came against Carolina and Tennessee (hardly impressive) and I cannot trust him to win a meaningful game against a team like Dallas on the road, and Dallas has found ways to win all season, versus last year when they found ways to lose. Dallas was down double digits on Monday on the road and pulled out a win. Look for Dallas to balance the attack and pass more than usual because Philly cannot stop the pass and Bryant and Witten will have a big day, and thankfully Romo has NOT been a turnover machine like years past. Dallas ranked 13th against the run so Sproles and McCoy should be contained somewhat in what should be a high scoring game. Dallas home field on a national TV game is worth 2 points here and I think Dallas is 3-6 points better anyway. It won't come easy.

One thing is the fact here that Dallas looked very sloppy on defense against a the paltry New York Giants team and they traveled, and now have a short week and that usually is go against spot and oddsmakers reflect that, and yet Dallas installed as a 3 point favorite here. Dallas has not covered a Thanksgiving Day football game which is annually for them in the past 3 years and I think this is the year they get it done.

As of Tuesday 90% of the action on this game was on the Over, which is now 54.5 but oddsmaker sources say this line will be at 56 by game time and that might be worth a look as well, but get on it early. No doubt both teams will trade some punches on the scoreboard. The Over trends here are unreal.

Sam Martin

LSU at Texas A&M
Prediction: LSU

Both the Aggies and Tigers didn't envision entering the final game of the regular season with 7-4 records, especially considering that seven of the eight non-conference games between these teams were against inferior competition that had pointspreads of 30+ points. Both teams were overrated to start the year in an SEC Conference that is overrated to begin with, but while we feel these teams are not as good as advertised the Tigers do match up well here and we'll back to close the regular season with a win and cover.

LSU failed to score a single point in a 17-0 loss at Arkansas, a game they couldn't get their running game going and as a result their offense failed miserably. They'll have much more success on the ground this week against an Aggies team that has allowed 335, 363, and 298 in their last three SEC games. Texas A&M has also lost here at home in their last two conference games, and have completely fallen apart after their fast start to the season. Tigers out-rushed A&M 324 to 75 last year and that huge rushing edge leads to another easy win and cover Thursday night!

Mike Davis

San Francisco (-1) over Seattle

The 49ers and Seahawks do not like each other. That is abundantly clear. What else is clear? These two teams are not the dominant teams they have been in years past. Seattle has lost the swagger they played with the past two seasons. Marshawn Lynch is a head case, and they do not have a dynamic playmaker to throw the ball to on offense. The defense isn't as good as it once was as they really struggle to pressure the passer with the front four alone. San Francisco isn't world-beaters either, but this matchup favors them. They are playing at home on short rest, and that is a big advantage when teams are this evenly matched. Kaepernick will play a good game this week, and I look for Carlos Hyde to continue his rise to potential superstar status. Seattle has lost their "mojo," and that makes it tough to win on the road. The 'Hawks are 2-3 on the road this year and just 1-4 ATS in those games. San Francisco wins this NFC West battle in front of their home crowd.

Harry Bondi

TEXAS A&M (+3) over LSU

We'll gladly take the field goal head start here with the Aggies, who have a much more explosive offense and proved in their win over Auburn that they are still capable of beating good teams. LSU's young offense has been ineffective on the road all season, going 1-4 against the spread while averaging just 16 points per game. A&M has too much offense and will be the more motivated team here at home as they play with double-revenge. Take the home dog.

Vegas Butcher

Bears / Lions Under 47.5

This is the very early Thursday game with a 12:30 EST start time. It's bad enough that they're playing on Thursday, but the fact that it's so early is another factor in the favor of a low scoring game. Last week Chicago had a 3.6 YPP average, against a terrible Bucs defense while playing at home. They only put up 21 points in the game due to terrible TO's in their own half by Tampa in the 2nd half. This team really struggled offensively. Now they go on the road, on a short week, and facing the #1 ranked Lions defense. Forte and the run game will be shut-down and it will probably be up to Cutler to move the chains. I expect a very vanilla gameplan for Chicago, as you just can't afford to let Cutler lose the game for you. As far as Detroit is concerned, they've failed to score a TD in two straight games now. This offense is very inefficient and highly reliant on two players: Tate and Johnson. Chicago doesn't have the corners to shut those guys down, but I'd expect consistent help over the top in this one. Regardless, points will be hard to come by in this game. My model has this one at 42 total points so there's a lot of value on the UNDER.

Seahawks / 49ers Under 39.5

Two elite defenses and two offenses that have been pretty inefficient lately. Seattle without Harvin doesn't have many playmakers on the perimeter, and Lynch is dealing with a back injury. San Fran has been very inefficient all season long with Gore, Boldin, and Davis showing their age while Crabtree regressing greatly. I think both defenses will have a lot of success in this game. Remember, these rivals know each other very well, they are well equipped to stop the read-option that each team has a lot of success with typically, and both are treating this like a playoff game. My model has this one at 39 points, and though there isn't much pure 'value' per say, I believe we'll see a very low scoring game in this one.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

TEXAS +7 over TCU: TCU has had the much better year, but Texas is playing very well right now and I feel that it would be huge for this team moving forward to pick up a win over a top 5 team in the nation. The Longhorns have won 4 of their last 5 games and While TCU has won their last 2 games on the road, they were vs West Virginia and Kansas and by just a combined 5 points. Not very impressive and I see it catching up with them here vs a Texas team that continues to improve by the week, especially defensively, as they have allowed just 12 ppg in their last 3 games, while TCU has allowed 26.7 ppg over the same stretch. Look for the outright upset here.

Michael Alexander

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -12.5

Under head coach Mark Richt, the Georgia Bulldogs are 38-1 SU at home versus. non-SEC opponents. They are 12-1 SU overall versus Georgia Tech, covering the spread in seven of their last nine meetings. With frosh phenom Nick Chubb leading the way, UGA is averaging 6.2 yards per rush.

Freddy Wills

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -1

Seattle has not faced a better team on the road this season. They are 2-3 on the road this year and the 49ers had this game circled since their playoff loss last year. The home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and I just think the 49ers are still flying under the radar where the Seahawks have not been nearly as dominant as they were a year ago. Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the 49ers have only been home 2 of the last 6 meetings and they won both of those games. Don’t miss out on my 5.5* max NFL POD along with my 5.5* SEC game of the week. I’m 5-1 ATS lifetime on Thanksgiving in college football and the #1 overall profit leader for career history!

Joe Gavazzi

LSU -3

This is a battle of underperforming SEC teams who each enter the contest at 7-4 SU, 3-4 SU in SEC West play. As such, they are clearly below the division standard bearers, Alabama and Mississippi St. In addition, they have also taken a step back from the national acclaim reached by each program in recent seasons. Though larger carrots do not wait for either of these programs, there is a lot of pride on the line as they enter this Thanksgiving evening game in an effort to salvage their respective mediocre seasons. Each plays with a week of rest and coming off a loss.

For Texas A&M, that defeat came on this very field vs. Missouri. The Aggies were badly mauled at the point of attack by the Tigers 335-104, as Missouri used a 200 Club game for 587 total yards in a 34-27 victory. It was a microcosm of the Aggies' season, which began with SEC victories vs. S. Carolina and Arkansas. Since October, however, the Aggies have gone just 2-4 SU, 1-6 ATS with one of those victories against LA Monroe. In so doing, they failed to cover the number by a net of 96 points. Look no further than the fact they are approaching the status of "Defensive Dud" with a stop unit that allows 28 PPG, 210/4.9 overland and 235/7.1 through the air. In a letdown season, following the departure of Johnny Manziel, the Aggies have failed to cover a game on their once strong home field.

Much like A&M, LSU has fallen from the national spotlight this year. In the previous 4 years, the Tigers had recorded a mark of 44-9 SU, often challenging for superiority in the SEC West, widely considered to be the nation's best division. This year, however, fortunes have turned against the Tigers with losses to division powers Mississippi St. by 5, Auburn by 34 and Alabama by 7 (in OT). The week after that crushing defeat, they traveled to Arkansas (a team who had lost 17 consecutive SEC games). The inevitable letdown took place as Arkansas defeated LSU 17-0, holding the Tigers to just 123 total yards. Since that time, the Tigers have focused on the bounce back for this game. Behind RB Fourette, LSU already had a solid ground game at 205/4.3. Two weeks of practice in the passing game should pay huge dividends against the weak Texas A&M secondary. Clearly, the Tigers are more proficient on that side of the ball. Allowing just 16 PPG, 313 YPG and 4.8 YP play, they are notably superior to the Aggies who approach Defensive Dud status.

Let's try the far superior defense, following an embarrassing shutout loss, to get the victory tonight, against an A&M team who has clearly lost their way as the season has progressed.

Jim Feist

TCU at Texas
Pick: Under

Both teams are outstanding defensively. TCU is 35th in the nation allowing 23.1 ppg. They moved the ball plenty on a bad Kansas defense last week, and the under is 15-6 after the Horned Frogs accumulate more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. They face a talented Texas defense for first-year Coach Charlie Strong, 24th in the nation allowing 21 ppg. Texas has a young QB and a ball control offense and they don't want to get into a shootout with TCU. The under is 35-17-1 in the Longhorns last 53 home games. Texas has allowed 7, 16 and 13 points the last three games to good offensive teams (West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State). Texas is on a 16-5 run under the total and the under is 17-5 in the Longhorns last 22 conference games.

Jimmy Boyd

Texas Longhorns +7

The books are begging for money on TCU with this line and will likely get it. However, I think the value is with Texas at home.

Charlie Strong has done a tremendous job of turning this team around after their 2-4 start. Texas is clearly playing their best football of the season right now and will be laying everything on the line in their regular season and home finale. Texas will also be extremely motivated to spoil in-state rival TCU’s hopes of getting into the 4-team playoff and I believe they have a great shot at winning this game outright.

While the Longhorns only win against a ranked opponent is that recent 33-16 victory over West Virginia, they have played several of their top opponents tough. They lost by just 3-points to UCLA (17-20), outplayed Oklahoma in a heartbreaking 26-31 defeat and kept it respectable against Baylor in a 7-28 loss.

Texas has played well defensively all season and come into this game ranked 27th in the country in total defense (346.5 ypg). They have been at their best against the pass, where they rank 13th (182.0 ypg). While TCU is 29th in rushing at 218.0 ypg, their strength is their passing attack, which ranks 8th at 323.6 ypg.

It's not like Texas can't stop the run. The Longhorns are allowing just 3.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.3 and just 5.5 yards per pass attempt versus teams averaging 7.5. Add in the home fans and the magnitude of this game and I think Texas is going to do a nice job of slowing down the Horned Frogs.

Another big key here is that Texas has grown big time on the offensive side of the ball. Over their last 3 games the Longhorns are averaging 31.7 points, which is 8 more than their season average of 23.7. They are also averaging 416.7 ypg, which is a big improvement over their season average of 366.9. TCU’s defense is giving up 30.2 ppg and 450.5 ypg on the road, where they have been far from impressive.

The Horned Frogs were fortunate to escape each of their last two road games with wins, narrowly beating both West Virginia (31-30) and Kansas (34-30). That poor showing against the Jayhawks really has me concerned about TCU’s ability to handle the pressure of what’s at stake.

There’s also strong system in play favoring a fade of the Horned Frogs after that near upset loss to Kansas. Road favorites who are an excellent offensive team (34+ ppg) against an average defensive team (21-28 ppg) after a win by 6-points or less are just 9-31 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Longhorns.

Freddy Wills

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -1

Seattle has not faced a better team on the road this season. They are 2-3 on the road this year and the 49ers had this game circled since their playoff loss last year. The home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and I just think the 49ers are still flying under the radar where the Seahawks have not been nearly as dominant as they were a year ago. Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the 49ers have only been home 2 of the last 6 meetings and they won both of those games.

John Ryan

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Chicago Bears

The simulator shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning this game. Briefly, this is a game where the media has nothing good to say about Chicago and everything good to say about Detroit. As we know, in the NFL, what one game seems to reflect more than often is not anywhere close to being a reliable indicator of future performance. Ask the Patriot haters, who bet against them since the KC debacle. Detroit is an imperfect 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when facing terrible passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when facing solid passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The following game situations match the expectations I have for this game. Detroit is just 1-8 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 75 to 100 rushing yards; 0-6 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 5 to 5.5 yards per play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2003. Play on road teams (CHICAGO) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games and with the current game taking place in weeks 10 through 13. Take the Bears.

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