Bob Balfe
Dallas Cowboys -3
For starters let’s not overthink this game. Mark Sanchez was never the answer for the Eagles team and is only playing because of injury to Nick Foles. Tony Romo is 6-1 on Thanksgiving and to be honest that doesn’t mean anything about this game, but it does mean he is used to playing in these short week spots. Right now the Cowboys have the best running back in football. The Eagles have a pretty good running back themselves, but there is no doubt this is Murray’s year. This is always a battle when these teams get together and I wish they could play every year on Thanksgiving. Romo has taken his shots from the public for not being an elite QB, but there is no doubt he is better than Sanchez. Think about how far along Romo is in this offensive system and how many big wins and losses he has suffered. Now think about Sanchez in this system. He basically just got here and this offense is still limited to what he can do. The Eagles have won some games this year because of special team’s play which is extremely odd for this team. It is just a matter of time before those easy points don’t come your way and you have to actually win with your quarterback. The last time the Eagles played here they sent the Cowboys packing for the season and in that game it was ironically Dallas who didn’t have their starting QB. Again, I am not going to overthink this. If the Eagles can win a big divisional road game with Sanchez calling the shots then so be it. I will take my chances with Cowboys. Take Dallas.
Texas / TCU Under 55
TCU has a few key skilled players who are not 100 percent and their best running back might not even play today. This Texas Defense is very impressive. This Texas Offense was brutal the first half of the season and still the defense went into double time to bail this team out in many games. This is a good defense and I expect them to make it hard for this TCU Offense. This TCU Defense is also very good, but just gets overshadowed by their offense which has been excellent this year. I think Texas can stay in this game and as long as there are not cheap turnovers for touchdowns I expect this to be a lower scoring game. This total is set high just because of the 45 average pts per game TCU puts up. That number should go down against this excellent defense and the lack of production due to banged up players on offense. Look for a lower scoring game. Take the Under.
Rob Vinciletti
Long Beach State vs. Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan +2.5
Western Michigan is getting points here and has better overall numbers than their opponent Long Beach St. WMU is 24-7 vs losing teams, 2-0 this year and has won 23 of 31 vs teams who allow 77 or more points per game, 3-0 this year. They have won 10 of their last 14 tournament games and 13 of 17 in November games. Long Beach St is a lousy 10-25 straight up and 11-24 ats vs winning teams and has lost all 3 non home games this year, while allowing 90 points per game. Cant lay points with a team like that. But we can certainly take them.
Scott Spreitzer
Bears / Lions Over 47
While Detroit has been relying on their defense to stay in games, the job has become tougher with Nick Fairley sidelined. The Lions are no longer getting to the opponent's QB and when Jay Cutler has time he can be dangerous. In fact, the Bears are 4-0 when he doesn't thrown an interception. I expect Chicago to test the Detroit defense, but I also expect the Lions' offense to find success with their fine receivers matched-up against a Bears' defense that ranks 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per contest. Chicago has allowed 31 points or more in four of their last six games and they're on a 20-7 Over run on the road. The series has gone Over in four of the last five meetings in Detroit and we expect more of the same in this one. I'm recommending a play on the Over between the Bears & Lions on Thursday.
Jack Jones
Texas Longhorns +7
I actually picked TCU to come out of nowhere to win the Big 12 this season. I predicted that they’d finish 11-1 on the season coming into the year, whereas most had them picked in the middle of the pack. While I would love to be right on that prediction, I simply believe the Horned Frogs are overvalued coming into this game against the Longhorns.
I have been riding TCU to a lot of profits this season because they have not only gone 9-1 straight up, but also 8-2 ATS. This team was undervalued coming into the season and throughout the majority of it as I expected, and there were a lot of soft lines to take advantage of in the first 3/4 of the season. But just like any team that covers a lot of games in a row, the odds eventually catch up to them, and that has happened with this TCU team.
Their two failures to cover have come in two of their last three games, and both were on the road. They were extremely fortunate to win 31-30 as a 3.5-point favorite at West Virginia as the Mountaineers gave the game away by committing five turnovers. They also had to come back from a second-half deficit last time out in a 34-30 win at Kansas as a 28-point favorite. So, they have not played nearly as well on the road against worse teams than Texas, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is asking too much.
The Longhorns are playing their best football of the season right now. Players are finally buying in to what Charlie Strong is preaching, and they are starting to have a lot of fun while winning in blowout fashion. Texas is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 34-13 as a 4-point favorite at Texas Tech, 33-16 as a 3-point home underdog to West Virginia, and 28-7 as a 1-point favorite at Oklahoma State.
This Texas defense is the real deal. It has held its last four opponents to an average of 14.8 points per game. It limited the Cowboys to just seven points and 192 total yards in its last game. For the season, it is giving up just 21.0 points and 346.5 points per game against teams that average 32.2 points and 438 yards per game. So, it is holding foes to 11.2 points and 91 yards per game below their season averages.
TCU is a pass-heavy team that averages 324 yards per game through the air. Well, that makes this a great matchup for Texas considering its strength defensively is against the pass. Indeed, the Longhorns are giving up just 182 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt against teams that average 262 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt. Texas held TCU to just 246 total yards in its 30-7 road win in Fort Worth last year.
Plays against road favorites (TCU) – an excellent offensive team (scoring at least 34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Texas is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 games after having won three of its last four games coming in. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. All the pressure is on TCU in this game, which could work against them as they try to make the college football playoff.
Steve Janus
Philadelphia Eagles +3
This is a bad spot for the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough division game on the road on Sunday Night Football, which they had to use a lot of energy to rally for a win in the 2nd half. Now they have a short week of rest to face one of the most explosive offenses in the league that play at a ridiculous pass. Dallas defense has been better than expected this season, but I think this is a spot where they struggle to contain the Eagles and all their weapons. Most importantly, I look for the Cowboys to wear down quickly, which should lead to a lot of big plays. While Dallas should be able to move the ball against Philadelphia's defense, I just don't see them scoring enough. I'll take the points on what I feel is the better team in this matchup.
System - Home teams who have failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in Weeks 10 through 13 are just 87-135 (39%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Xander Locke
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Chicago Bears +7
Detroit will more than likely win this game, but it won't be by more than 7 points. The Lions played horrible vs the Patriots this last week. They couldn't score in the redzone. This is going to carry over into this division rivalry. Chicago will be ready and focused so they don't get embarrassed on Thanksgiving. The Bears will keep this game close.
Doug Upstone
Cal State Fullerton vs. Wright State
Play: Cal State Fullerton +7
Play Against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick like WRIGHT STATE, a slower-paced team from last season averaging 53 or less shots a game, after a contest where they made 55 percent or more of their shots. Teams like Wright State tend to be more up and down shooting percentage-wise with a low volume output and this club is also 6-16 ATS away after a game committing eight or less turnovers. In the last 17 years, teams like Wright State are 5-24 ATS in this exact situation.
Mike O'Connor
DETROIT (-7) 26 Chicago 18
After dropping their last two games, the Lions now find themselves in second place in the NFC North, trailing the Packers by a game. The problem has been a Lions offense that has not scored an offensive touchdown the past two games and has struggled badly in generating just 7.5 points per game the last two. They’ll have a chance to rebound this week against a bad Bears defense that will be missing several key starters due to injury this week (linebacker Lance Briggs and cornerback Kyle Fuller). The Lions should have some advantages in the passing game with a healthy Calvin Johnson in the lineup matched up against a Bears pass defense that has allowed 260 passing yards at 7.2 yps against teams that gain 233 yards at 6.2 yps and should move the ball well as a result. Meanwhile, an average Bears offense is likely to struggle against my #5 rated defense that allows just 304 yards at 5.0 yppl to teams that gain 349 yards at 5.4 yppl. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler leads the league with 18 turnovers and if the Lions can apply pressure as I suspect they will, that number should increase.
The Lions qualify in a good home bounce back situation that is 45-16-1 as well as a separate 125-64-6 situation but Chicago qualifies in a 499-410-15 turnover based situation. My model only favors the Lions by 5.3 points so with no real edge as far as I can see, I’ll just lean slightly with the Lions.
DALLAS (-3) 32 Philadelphia 27
This should be an interesting match-up at the top of the division as the 8-3 Eagles travel to play the 8-3 Cowboys for the division lead. Dallas will attempt to utilize their excellent offensive line and pound the Eagles on the ground with an attack that generates 151 yards at 5.0 ypr against teams that allow 117 yards at 4.4 ypr. Philly has been average against the run and if they over commit to stopping the Cowboys ground game, it will open up play action for Tony Romo and a very good Dallas passing offense that averages 7.3 yps against teams that allow 6.7 yps. Projections show the Cowboys moving the ball well in this game and if their defense can force some turnovers, which the Eagles quarterbacks have been prone to this season and Mark Sanchez has throughout his career, Dallas should win and cover. Sanchez has a 3.7% career interception rate that is even higher this year (4.1%). Comparatively, Tony Romo has just a 2.6% career interception rate (2.0% this season). Overall, the Eagles have a -8 turnover differential that is driven nearly entirely by interceptions while the Cowboys -1 margin is due to their -4 in net fumbles.
The Cowboys staff took some time during their bye two weeks ago to begin early stage game planning for this contest and may have an advantage with the Eagles having to travel on a short week and having limited preparation time. Tony Romo is 6-1 in his Thanksgiving starts and has played well. Dallas qualifies in a 46-27-2 situation and my model predicts a 5.0 point Cowboys victory. I’ll lean with the Cowboys.
Dr. Bob
TCU (-7) 29 TEXAS 26
This is a dangerous spot for TCU, as the Texas defense is among the best in the nation while the offense is improving under sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes, who started slowly but has played well over the last 6 games. Swoopes averaged just 4.9 yards per play in his first 4 starts after being thrust into the starting role after started David Ash was forced to retire after a week 1 concussion but Swoopes has averaged 6.6 yppp over the last 6 games while facing teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. TCU’s defense has allowed 7.6 yppp in 7 Big 12 games to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.3 yppp against an average defensive team, so the Texas offense could have decent success through the air even if TCU limits the Longhorns’ rushing attack as expected (just 3.7 yards per rushing play projected).
This game will likely be decided on how well a very good TCU attack performs against an elite Texas defense that’s yielded just 4.6 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit. TCU’s offense is an equally good 1.3 yards per play better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) by Texas has faced 6 very good offensive teams (UCLA, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and West Virginia) and held all of them to 5.5 yppl or less and an average of just 5.0 yppl.
The math model favors TCU by 7 points (with a total of 52 points) using season numbers but Texas has improved offensively while TCU’s defense has gotten worse and using Big 12 games only for each team would result in a prediction of TCU by just 4 points (with a total of 57 points). Texas also applies to a solid 82-35-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation so I certainly favor the Longhorns plus the points.
EZWINNERS
Detroit Lions -7
This is a huge game for the Lions who have lost two games in a row and are now a game back of the Packers in the NFC North. Its been a rough couple of weeks for Detroit, but they lost games that they were not supposed to win as they were on the road against the Cardinals and Patriots the two teams that own the best records in the NFL at 9-2. This IS a game that Detroit is expected to win and I like them to do so in a big way. The Lions defense has been one of the best in the league this year and they are #1 in the NFL at stopping the run. That is going to put the weight of the Bears offense on the struggling Jay Cutler which plays right into the Lions hands. The Detroit offense has also been quite the past couple of weeks and Megatron has not done much. That should change this week as well as he won't have Patrick Peterson or Darrelle Revis shadowing him like he has seen in the last two games. Lay the points.
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Despite being out played for much of the game, the Cowboys won last week in New York against the struggling Giants to setup this critical matchup with the Eagles that will leave the winner in sole possession of first place in the NFC East. The key to the success of the Dallas defense has been to stay off of the field. The pace at which the Chip Kelly directed Eagles offense will play in this game will put that Cowboy's defense to the test and quarterback Mark Sanchez has enough weapons around him to keep the Dallas defense off balance and put points on the board. Philadelphia doesn't get a lot of credit for this defense or special teams, but the Eagles have already set a franchise record this season scoring ten non-offensive touchdowns. Dallas has got off to a great start this year, but I still don't trust Dallas as a home favorite. The Boy's have also failed to cover on Thanksgiving the past three seasons and I look for that to continue. Take the points.
San Francisco 49ers -1
This is one of the best rivalries in the NFL right now and the home team has won eight out of the last nine meetings between these two teams. I see no reason to buck that trend in this first matchup of the year between these two teams. Seattle just knocked off the best team in the NFC last week at home with a dominating performance against the Cardinals. San Francisco hasn't been very impressive this season, but they have found a way to get to 7-4 and are still in the playoff hunt. Seattle is not the same team on the road where they have a losing record this season. Also, teams that can run the ball with power will give this defense trouble just like Jamal Charles and the Chiefs were able to do. I expect a heavy dose of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde when the Niners have the ball. The Seattle does not have a scary passing game and their running game has also slipped since center Max Unger went down with an injury. Niners pick up the win here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia / Dallas Over 55.5: The Eagles offense is clicking right now and we all know how fast they want to play, which will create plenty of scoring chances for them and also slow the clock down. The Eagles will also be taking on a Dallas defense that is showing signs of slowing down, allowing 24.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The Eagles have struggled on defense this year, allowing 25 ppg overall, 30.2 ppg on the road and 32.7 ppg in their last 3 games. The Eagles are 30 th in the league vs the pass and that should create plenty of opportunities for big plays from a Dallas offense that has been very good this year, averaging 26 ppg overall, while scoring 31 or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The Over is 13-3 in the Eagles last 18 week 13 games and 5-1-1 in the Cowboy’s last 7 games vs the NFC. 34-31 sounds about right for this one.
San Francisco / Seattle Under 40: Gotta feel this will be a sluggfest with much more defense than offense. The Niners offense has struggled all year and they will be going up against a solid Seattle defense. San Fran has scored 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and they have averaged just 19 ppg at home for the year, while Seattle has allowed just 15.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Niners have been really playing good defense of late, as they have allowed 13 or less in 3 of their last 4 games and have allowed 17 or less in their last 3 home games. The Seattle offense is not all that strong and have put up just 32 total points in their last 2 games and I don't see them getting a whole lot vs this defense. The Last 6 in this series has averaged just 36.3 ppg, with 5 of those games putting up 40 or less. The Under is 6-1 in Seattle's last 7 vs the NFC West and 6-1 in the Niners last 7 games on Thursday. 17-16 sounds about right for this one.
NFL Predictions
Dallas Cowboys -3 -120
I faded Mark Sanchez on the road a couple weeks ago in Green Bay for a big game, and I’ll look to do it again today against the Cowboys. While Dallas escaped the Giants it was done in impressive fashion. Of course not on the scoreboard, it was only a 3 point win, but the way they did it by coming back was impressive in itself. The Cowboys and Tony Romo have been criticized in the past for playing dead after facing a little bit of pressure, but they rose up and came from behind to beat the Giants in the 2nd half. I am sure they were looking ahead to this game as well. After dropping two games to the Redskins and Cardinals, everyone seemed to give up on them. Some people need to understand that Brandon Weeden was at the controls in both of those games. Romo was out with an injury, so we can’t put the blame there. The Cowboys were on a six game roll before Weeden had to take over, so then, the only loss Romo has to his credit was week 1 against the 49ers, where he didn’t look healthy in that one. Sanchez and the Eagles blew past a terrible Titans team at home last week. However, they looked awful in a big game against the Packers prior to then. This is a HUGE game for the Eagles and Cowboys. I know it sounds funny saying I trust Romo in a big game, but I sure as heck trust him more than Sanchez who the verdict is still out on. The Cowboys’ defense has done considerably well despite what was expected of them before the season started. They’re allowing 21.8 point per game and are 16th in yardage allowed. The Titans are 32nd against the run, a part of that game that the Eagles took care of. The Dallas 12th ranked run defense should be able to contain it enough to force Sanchez into winning the game. The winner of this game takes the division lead and I don’t trust Sanchez will be able to do that here. I look for a Cowboys win and cover.
Joe Gavazzi
TCU -6.5
Interesting to note that TCU has moved into the schedule spot once occupied by Texas A&M in what has long been a battle between the Longhorns and Aggies on Thanksgiving when they shared a conference affiliation. It is a clear indicator of the respect accorded to this TCU program, which has in recent years, under the guidance of 14th year HC Patterson, moved upward in the college football landscape hierarchy through the ranks of the WAC, to the Mountain West till their final ascension to the Big 12. There they have resided for the previous 2 years with mediocre results of 11-14 SU, 8-15 ATS. While the Horned Frogs have been ascending up the ladder of CFB respect, the Longhorns have headed opposite direction, under the guidance of former HC Brown. In fact entering this season, Texas was on a not so impressive 4 year slide of 30-21 SU and 22-29 ATS.
This year, with 15 RS for 1st year HC Strong, improvement was expected. As a defense first coach, Strong made his way through the ranks as Asst. Coach at Florida to the head position at Louisville, where the Cardinals soared to national recognition. Much was expected upon his arrival. A 3-5 SU ATS beginning left the Longhorn faithful wary. Since that beginning, however, the Longhorns have turned it around by going 3-0 SU ATS, albeit vs. TTRR, WVU and Oklahoma St. In their previous contest, a 28-7 win vs. the Cowboys, Texas had a 430-192 yardage edge. The Longhorn faithful are of the belief this has offered a buy sign for the program. This bureau is not convinced! For, when stepping up in class against the elite of the Big 12, the Longhorns were smacked down 23-0 by Kansas St. and 28-7 by Baylor. Much the same could be in store this Thanksgiving evening in Austin.
The coming out party for TCU has resulted in a 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS YTD record, including 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in the Big 12. In those games, they have covered the number by a net 113 points. It is a main reason why this line has swung 10-14 points from where it would have been opening week. Yet, the adjustment is well deserved. Following a 41-20 high-profile win vs. Kansas St. on November 8th (their 4th victory in a row), TCU had an inevitable letdown in a 34-30 survival vs. outmanned Kansas. With 2 weeks to prepare for this primetime showcase, look for the Horned Frogs to be stepping it up a notch. The defensive statistics for these teams are relatively even. But, on the offensive side of the ball, led by QB Boykin, the Frogs are doubling the Horns' 23 PPG output, while ascending to 200 Club status with an attack that averages 542 YPG and 6.7 YP play.
Offense the difference, as TCU proves to the nation that their inclusion in the Big 12 is well warranted!
DAVE COKIN
CAL STATE FULLERTON VS WRIGHT STATE
PLAY: CAL STATE FULLERTON +6.5
If you look at the pre-season projections, Wright State is much more highly thought of than is Cal State Fullerton. The Raiders figure to reside in the upper half of the Horizon, while the Titans are projected to be at or at least near the bottom in the Big West. That might well be the case, but thanks to the matchups we’ll see today in this game, I believe the underdog has a decent chance to get the mild upset.
Wright State coach Billy Donlon’s game is pressure. Wright State was one of the best teams in the country last season at forcing turnovers. But the current edition of the Raiders has zero starters back from last season, and the defense is not where it needs to be just yet. That’s key here. Fullerton has definite shortcomings, but the strength of the team is its backcourt tandem of Alex Harris and Lanerryl Johnson, and that combo should be able to handle whatever Wright State throws at them.
Harris is off an especially awful game by his standards, so I would expect him to enjoy a bounce back to at least some extent today. Johnson is a jaycee transfer who has stepped right into the lineup and is playing well. I believe they can neutralize the Arceneaux/Hopkins combo and if that’s the case, I don’t know where the big advantage is for Wright State.
The Raiders are off to a 3-1 start that includes a win over a respectable Belmont entry plus a good road win at Charleston Southern. That’s not bad, especially considering that Wright State is without a couple of key bench guys, so their depth chart is a bit depleted.
If you’re just playing off the power rankings, Wright State is definitely the chalk here, so no argument with the number being where it is. But when breaking down the personnel and the team tendencies, I expect the Titans to take away what the Raiders want to implement defensively, and that should out this game into the coin flip category. That being the expectation, Cal State Fullerton plus a fairly generous spot looks like the right side to me.
LT Profits
Chicago vs Detroit
Pick : Detroit -7
It may seem strange seeing the Detroit Lions favored by a touchdown on Thanksgiving over the Chicago Bears given that the Lions have looked terrible while not scoring a touchdown in back-to-back losses while the Bears come off of back-to-back wins. However, those two Detroit losses both came on the road to the teams with the two best records in the NFL in Arizona and New England, while the two Chicago wins both came at home vs. a couple of lightweights in Minnesota and Tampa Bay with neither win being impressive as both opponents had chances to tie those games and force overtimes on their final possessions. The Lions now return home to their indoor turf where they are 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 ATS and Matthew Stafford should have a field day vs. Chicago’s 28th ranked passing defense. The Bears are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games overall.