SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +7 +over DETROIT
Remember when the Bears not only “played” defense, they actually embodied it? Honestly, if you slap some Cream sickle uniforms on these tackle dummies, one could swear that it was the 70’s Buccaneers out there most weeks and this is a team playing for the playoffs?! We played against the Bears when they were a 5½-point choice over the Buccaneers last week and we’re still trying to figure out how we lost that game. We’re not close to being sold on the Bears because they are weak both mentally and physically. Jay Cutler has a penchant for committing turnovers and the play calling is certainly curious. Chicago has a strong RB in Matt Forte (averaging 4.2 yards per carry) yet they abandon the running game almost as soon as the game starts. That’s what you get when you have an ex-CFL coach calling the shots. Cutler leads the league in giveaways. The Bears are 3-10 during Marc Trestman's tenure when they finish on the negative side of the turnover margin and 1-4 when the turnover margin is equal. That said, Detroit isn’t looking so pretty lately either.
Losing in Arizona says that the Lions would have problems in the playoffs and getting decimated in New England says maybe they do not even belong in the playoffs. Matthew Stafford has been off all year. After their Week 1, 35-14 blowout win over the Giants, it looked like Stafford and company were in a big offensive year but it has been nothing but regression since. In fact, the Lions have not scored more than 24 points in any game since Week 1 and have been held to 17 points or less five times. That includes games against New Orleans and Atlanta, two defenses that can’t stop anyone. Maybe the Lions turn it up this week against another bad defense but do you really want to spot 7 points with a team that has had this much trouble scoring points? Lions Coach Jim Caldwell has always been known for his conservative approach (you can never be too careful, huh Jimmy) and Detroit has not responded. When the Lions win, they win by small margins. They have won by more than 7 points just one time since Week 3 and that came against the brutal Vikings. Furthermore, Detroit goes from a 7½-point pooch in New England to a 7-point favorite this week, which is a swing of 14½-points in one week. That’s too much. We saw a similar scenario last week when the Redskins went from a 7-point favorite against Tampa two weeks to a 9½-point dog in San Fran last week and covered easily. You would have to go very deep into the archives (probably two decades or thereabouts) to find the last time the Lions were favored by this much over the Bears because it hasn’t been warranted for a very long time. It’s not warranted here either.
DALLAS -3½ over Philadelphia
This one is for all the marbles. At least for now. This is the first meeting of these 8-3 teams with the rematch coming up in two weeks back in Philly. You can lay -3 and some extra juice if you like and while that half point is significant on a key number like 3, if we thought it was going to be that close we would not bet it. Instead we’ll lay 3½ with no juice at BET 365 and here’s why. Games like this often come down to turnovers. If you can figure which team will turn it over more, you can almost guarantee yourself a winner. In that respect, we’re almost guaranteed that Mark Sanchez will turn it over while Tony Romo has been stingy in that department. Sanchez has thrown six picks and lost two fumbles in four games since replacing Nick Foles. Yeah, the Eagles are 3-1 in those games but they defeated Houston, Carolina and Tennessee while getting their rear ends handed to them against the Packers in Green Bay. That was against Aaron Rodgers and the Eagles have also lost to Carson Palmer and Colin Kaepernick. The only “good” QB they defeated this year was Andrew Luck back in Week 3. Philly was extremely fortunate to get that win after Luck threw a pick inside the Eagles 20 with under 5 minutes remaining and Indy leading by 7. Had the Colts logically decided to run the ball and kick a FG, we’d be talking about a 7-4 team. Philadelphia’s defense can’t stop a good QB and Romo qualifies as one of the best.
Romo can move around and extend plays, like Rodgers and Kaepernick. He can make all the throws, like Rodgers and Palmer. He has a ridiculous array of weapons at his disposal, including a running game that is leading the NFL right now. The Eagles' defense has not been able to make good QB’s uncomfortable and with just three days to prepare, it figures to be a long day for them. Dallas has faded into mediocrity so many times over the past 10 years that we almost expect another collapse to happen at any time. However, this year’s edition is not like previous years. Dallas is finding ways to win like they did last week against the Giants and earlier in the year against Seattle and St. Louis. It would have been easy to throw in the towel last week after they were down 24-13 and look ahead to this one but they didn’t. Instead the Cowboys have shown a ton of heart, grit and resiliency and now this well-balanced unit gets a chance to thrive on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. With Romo, the ‘Boys are 6-1 on Thanksgiving Day. In the only loss, Romo threw for 441 yards and three scores in a 38-31 loss to Washington when Robert Griffin III was RG3 and not in his current form. Romo has completed 165 of 248 passes for 2,033 yards with 18 touchdowns and six picks on Thanksgiving and we expect more crooked numbers here.
Seattle +106 over SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle has issues but one thing they don’t lack is desire and the ability to win games like this. If there’s one thing the Seahawks love to do more than anything, it’s defeat the 49ers and we’ll put that to the test again. Seattle had a decent performance last week against Arizona. They are coming together and getting healthy again at the right time. The Seahawks have had an extremely difficult schedule with games already against Green Bay, Denver, Dallas, San Diego (in week 3 when the Chargers were rolling) and Arizona. All that said, this one is much more about fading the biggest imposters in the NFL called the San Francisco 49ers.
Both teams sit at 7-4 but one could easily argue that the 49ers are the luckiest 7-4 team in history. San Fran has played five home games this year and they no longer play at Candlestick Park. The 49ers lost to Chicago in their new stadium to open the year before they defeated the Eagles and Chiefs both by five points. San Fran’s next two home games were against the Rams and Redskins. They lost 13-10 to St. Louis and barely got by the ‘Skins last week (17-13) as a 9½-point favorite. Playing at Levi’s Stadium, they are now the Santa Clara Niners. From the press box, you’re looking down upon San Jose, not San Francisco. Atmosphere-wise, fans have been known to disappear in herds to get refreshments and whatever else so there is always movement in the crowd. It just doesn’t have that same “NFL atmosphere” as the other stadiums. We really have to question if this feels like home to the 49ers because they sure as hell aren’t playing like it. In fact, one could argue that the 49ers could just as easily be 0-5 at home as oppose to 3-2. The home-field advantage line is not accurate. Aside from those five home games, the Niners won at New York two weeks ago by a score of 16-10. In that game, Eli Manning threw five picks. When the opposing QB throws five picks you’re supposed to win by 28 points, not six. When San Fran defeated Dallas in Week 1 by 11 points, San Fran held a turnover edge of 4-0. In San Fran’s 11 games overall and seven wins, none of them have been dominant or impressive. San Fran has lived a charmed life but they are not close to being in the upper echelon of the NFL. They’ve been lucky and if they get lucky again here, so be it. Colin Kaepernick's has thrown 3 TD’s and 7 picks in his five career games against the Seahawks and this is by far the worst 49ers team he has played on since he arrived on the scene. The reality is that ‘Frisco, dating back to the first game of the year, never quite managed to build the championship-caliber intangibles or talent it set out to build and it’s all about to come crashing down.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS +7 over TCU
Thanksgiving Day and football go hand in hand. This is even more so the case in the state of Texas. Texas rejoices in Thanksgiving, as a day their beloved Cowboys and Longhorns play in their annual Thanksgiving showdown. It used to be the Lone Star Showdown when former Big 12, now SEC team, Texas A&M would square off with their most bitter rival historically, Texas. Now the Longhorns have established a new tradition with newcomer TCU, in a Big-12 rivalry series for state bragging rights. Regardless of both historical and current records, the Horns are always tough on Thanksgiving and they have the luxury of hosting a TCU team that comes in on a rather tumultuous note. TCU was simply napping in their last game against a pitiful Kansas Jayhawks team. The Horned Frogs were lucky to get out of Lawrence with a win, trailing the Jayhawks by 10 points late in to the third quarter. TCU would win the game (34-30), but Kansas would hang around until the end. While the upset bid was sullied by TCU, they are facing an entirely different animal in a Texas team looking for a signature victory this year.
The Longhorns are 6-5. This game will serve as their finale to their regular season before they move on to what will likely be a low-tier bowl game. For all intents and purposes, this is the game that the Longhorns have been waiting for all year. Texas is riding a three-game winning streak and they have smashed competition the en route to this game. The victims consist of Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Most notably, all three of these teams at one point this year received some sort of media attention, exclaimed to potentially be a Big 12 dark horse that will steal the conference from the anticipated contenders of Baylor and Oklahoma. The Horns have put those theories to rest, decimating all three opponents by an average margin of 19.6 points per game. TCU is the fifth-ranked team in the country. On the year against top-fifteen ranked opponents, such as Oklahoma and UCLA, the Longhorns lost both games by a combined 8 points and thus markets their ability to be competitive in spotlight match-ups against elite opposition. With the TCU "Superfrogs" showing that they are anything but invincible and a Texas Longhorns team searching for a benchmark win at home, it is hard not to roll with the points in this Thanksgiving showdown.
Pass NHL & NCAAB
Richard Witt
Philadelphia Eagles +3
Eagles are resourceful in terms of tapping sources of multiple means to score, which translates into the Dallas' defense not getting much time to rest not good, given the relatively-modest level of overall talent possessed by the Cowboy "D". Is Mark Sanchez turnover-vulnerable? You bet. But in the broad desperation that is the NFC playoff chase, plus-points is a powerful inducements.
OC Dooley
LSU -3
At the bottom of this analysis details on an incredible "31-4" SYSTEM that in the past couple of decades has been near automatic. One can argue that the ODDSMAKERS have made a major statement casting LSU as a substantial road favorite even though the Tigers have lost consecutive games outright while the offense has put up just 23 points combined on the scoreboard spanning the past three outings. Both sides in tonight's contest have identical records and both will be relegated to "lower tier" Bowls in the postseason. Texas A+M is a sizeable underdog even though earlier this month they pulled off an enormous upset at Auburn cast as a 23-and-a-half point underdog. This is the same Aggies contingent that began the regular campaign pulling off another road upset at South Carolina but what looked promising back in September eventually fell apart due to youth especially at the quarterback position. Most reading this analysis will remember the last game involving LSU who walked into a ambush of sorts on the road against an opponent (Arkansas had lost seventeen in a row in conference play) who was desperate for a victory. My research indicates that in the past two-plus decades when off a game where the offense rushed for "75 or less" yards on the ground LSU when taking the field on the ROAD (10-2 against the spread) has been an excellent investment. Here is a "31-4" SYSTEM (88-percent since 1992) which plays ON road favorites like LSU after gaining "225 or less" total yards in the previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning. That amazing system supports the visiting Tigers
The Real Animal
LSU -3
Texas A&M scored just 21 points against UL-Monroe, were shutout by Alabama, and had 20 against Ole Miss. They can be shut down and LSU is capable of doing it. The Tigers have had four games yielding 20 points or less. But the LSU offense is borderline lousy. In their last three games a total of 23 points scored and shutout last week at Arkansas gaining just 36 yards rushing on 32 carries plus a lackluster 12-of-22 for 87 yards in the air. But the A&M defense is deplorable. Last week they allowed Missouri a season-high 587 yards. They are abysmal trying to stop the run allowing 698 rushing yards in their last two games. LSU is capable of posting big rushing #’s. They had 303 against Kentucky and 265 versus Ole Miss. Also the Bayou Bengals posted 183 rushing yards against that tough Alabama defense. LSU is very stingy against the pass. There is too much of a disparity in these stop units for me not to get involved with LSU -3.
Tony Stoffo
Washington vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State +3.5
Reverse money action move setting up here as the public all on the Huskies in this spot with close to 70% of all bets placed - however this line has started moving the other way meaning the sharps have landed on the Cougars here. And I totally agree as this new Washington State Falk is the real deal. The Cougars the very live dog here tonight. The Underdog is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
Lee Williams
Edmonton Oilers vs. Nashville Predators
Play: Edmonton Oilers +199
This is a perfect spot for Edmonton to break losing streak as we simply cant see Preds bringing a lot of intensity to Arena tonight.Edmonton has also won 3 of last 5 meetings between these 2,s o obviously have some match ups they can exploit as they played a very close game in last meeting Nov.11th. Nashville off tough win over Kings and to underscore our point about possible lack of motivation, Preds are 4-9 last 13 vs team with winning % .400. Oilers look like a solid value here