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Kentucky at Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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John Calipari has put together some powerful teams with "one and done" high-end recruits. While he has done so again this year, he is missing some key upperclassmen ingredients and the pieces are coming together much slower. There are a lot of physical similarities between former Notre Dame star Luke Harangody, and Jack Cooley. What is happening now is that Cooley is starting to play like Harangody, averaging 14.3 points per game and 11.3 rebounds per game. The Irish have seven players that are all contributing significantly, so they can go to the bench seamlessly. The Wildcats are playing well below expectations. Although they are 4-1 they have yet to cover a game, standing at just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 out-of conference tilts including 0-4 ATS vs. the Big East. Play Notre Dame on the moneyline.
Steve Janus
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Miami Heat -5.5
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The Miami Heat should have no trouble beating the Spurs by at least 6 points in tonight's showdown on TNT. The Heat will be playing their first game in five days, while the Spurs are playing the second of a back-to-back set and their fourth road game in the last five days.
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San Antonio may be able to keep up with Miami in the first half, but those tired legs will start to show over the final 24 minutes of this game. The last two visits to Miami have been ugly for San Antonio. They lost 110-80 in March of 2011 and 120-98 in their most recent visit last January.
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Miami is a perfect 6-0 at home this season and are 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last two seasons and 15-5 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
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Miami Heat -5.5
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The Heat get the call as my free play tonight because of the advantage they have in terms of freshness and preparation.
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The Heat have had four days to rest their legs up and to prepare for San Antonio. The Spurs will be playing their second game in as many nights and their fourth in five nights. That's no easy stretch for any team, let alone an older team. The Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.
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The Spurs have been playing well but have been doing the majority of their damage against lesser competition. They are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team that has a winner record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team that has a winning percentage greater than .600. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage that's greater than .600 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall versus teams with a winning percentage above .600.
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It is also worth noting that the Heat are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday primetime games.
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The Heat have buried the Spurs by 30 and 22 points the last two times they've visited. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the points.
John Ryan
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Monroe
Prediction: Western Kentucky
The simulator shows a high probability that WK will win this game by 12 or more points. They return four starters on this year?s edition and the that playing experience and chemistry is a huge advantage when facing an inferior foe in a rebuilding year with just one returning starter. Supporting this graded play further is a proven system posting a 40-13 ATS for 76% winners since 1997. Play against dogs of 10 to 19.5 points that is a poor shooting team from last season that made <=42% of their shot attempts and with just one or fewer starters returning from last year and with the current game being on of the first 10 games of the season. This underscores the chemistry advantage that a seasoned team with four or five returning starters has over a team that was struggling last year and now has to rebuild in the current season. Take Western Kentucky.
Carolina Sports
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: New Orleans Saints
Both defenses are about the same as they stink. Don't be fooled by Atlanta allowing 19.6-ppg. They are allowing 4.8-ypr vs teams that offensively are 4.2-ypr. We all know New Orleans defensive stinks so it is the team who has the ball will probably win. The Saints getting the 3.5 is worth the look for a free pick as they are the more desperate team.
Rocketman
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets travel to Golden State to take on the Warriors on Thursday night. Denver is 8-7 SU overall this year while Golden State comes in with an 8-6 SU record on the season. Denver is starting to pick it up going 4-1 SU their last 5 games overall. Denver is 73-33 SU as a favorite the past 3 years. Golden State is 3-11 SU last 3 years as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Golden State is 1-9 ATS last 3 years after allowing 85 points or less. Denver is 6-2 ATS last 3 years overall vs Golden State. Denver is 5-0 ATS last 5 games overall. Denver is 44-20 ATS last 64 road games. Denver has the better team here. We'll recommend a small play on Denver tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Notre Dame/ Kentucky Over 134: Gonna go with a double dip on this game. Notre dame has been an excellent defensive squad this year, but I do believe that the Cats will get their share of points. Kentucky is a young but talented squad that has averaged 85.2 ppg on the year. Defensively the cats have not been that great as they have allowed 67.6 ppg on the year. The did allow just 49 points to Lafayette, but have allowed 69 points or more in their other 4 games. Defense is where this team will struggle, especially tonight vs an Irish team that has averaged a healthy 73.7 ppg on 49% shooting this year. This should be an fast paced game and a close game that should lead to a FT battle at the end. I expect the Irish to win, and I also expect 140+ points scored in this game.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NOTRE DAME -1.5 over Kentucky: The Cats are a talented squad, but they are young and will struggle in the early season, especially in hostile venues and playing at Notre Dame can certainly be hostile. Kentucky did have a couple of blowout wins of late, but they also have showed their youth in close wins vs Maryland and Morgan State, plus their lone loss to Duke. This is not a normal Cats recruiting class that has a bunch of players that will go 1 year and then onto the pros. This is a youthful team that will go through growing pains. On the other side the Irish are very tough at home and with all 5 starters back from last year they should have enough to eek out a close win over the Cats tonight. KEY TRENDS--- The Wildcats are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games, while the Irish are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games, plus the favorite is 6-0 ATS the last 6 in the series.
Arkansas State -7 over Florida International: The Golden Panthers are off a horrible 8-21 and have fired NBA legend Isaiah Thomas. In to clean up the mess is Richard Pitino (son of Rick Pitino) it will not be easy in his first year as the Panthers must replace all 5 starters from last years horrid team. Their top returning player is Cameron Bell, who scored a mere 4 ppg last year. and he won't be eligible till Jan 1st. On the other side we have a Red Wolves team that is loaded and ready for a bounce back year, after going 6-10 in Sun Belt play last year. The Red Wolves are led by perhaps the best backcourt in the Sun Belt with Edward Townsel (17.8 ppg), Trey Finn (9.5 ppg) and Marcus Hooten (8.6 ppg. All 3 are very good shooters and can knock down the 3 as well. The Red Wolves also have a big edge on the defensive end, where they have allowed just 63.8 ppg, while the Golden Panthers have given up 76.7 ppg. Too many edges for State in this one as they win going away.
Timothy Black
SETON HALL vs. LSU
PLAY: LSU
The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. Also, LSU is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a Big East opponent while Seton Hall is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Seton Hall is just 1-2-1 ATS this season and playing in their first true road game I expect them to continue the slide.
Scott Delaney
After going 2-0 with my free picks last night, my free pick run is now at 42-21-2. Tonight I'm on the West coast with Loyola Marymount, out of the West Coast Conference, laying a slim number to Long Beach State.
Normally this would be an intangible we'd discuss on a Saturday, during the football season, but tonight's basketball game at Gersten Pavilion in Los Angeles will tip-off Homecoming Week. And why not against this team, as these two meet for the 26th time. Though the 49ers hold an 18-7 lead in the series, the Lions won in 2009 and 2010, both in overtime, and are 5-4 at home against the 49ers.
It's no surprising the line is this low, as four of the last 13 meetings have gone to overtime, with three others decided by three points or less. So why am I not worried about this game tonight, and concerned about another close one?
Because I think the Lions are going to embrace being at home, after opening the season 3-3, including going 1-2 at the Carrs/Safeway Great Alaska Shootout to end a 20-day road swing.
And leading the charge tonigt inside Gersten will be upperclassmen Anthony Ireland (23.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.3 apg), a junior who was named Preseason All-WCC after earning First-Team All-Conference a year ago, fifth-year senior Ashley Hamilton (13.5 ppg, 7.5 apg), who averaged over 11 points and 5.6 rebounds a year ago, junior Godwin Okonji (5.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg), who has led the team in blocks the last two years, Ayodeji Egbeyemi (12.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg), a junior who has started all six games this season, and redshirt junior Alex Osborne (3.5 rpg).
I like the makeup of this team, and looking ahead to conference play, I wouldn't be surprised to see Gonzaga and St. Mary's in a heap of trouble when they visit L.A. to face LMU in the Lions' den.
I know Long Beach has faced some stellar competition - it lost to North Carolina and Arizona - but this is also a tired and weary 49ers team that may not be able to keep up in the second half once the Lions make their run.
I'm going to side with the low chalk here and play the home team.
2♦ Loyola Marymount
Chuck O'Brien
Swept the free card last night with winners on Temple and Ohio State. Tonight I'm back at it in the college ranks, and am taking the points with Fordham, a home underdog, to Manhattan.
We just watched a battle of the Gotham City with Brooklyn and New York doing battle in the NBA. Tonight it's the annual "Battle of the Bronx" in Fordham's historic Rose Hill Gym, and something tells me the Jaspers are walking into a trap here. Last season Manhattan embarrassed the Rams, as it used a stifling defense to force a season-high 20 turnovers in an 81-47 win.
Though Fordham is 1-4 on the season, make note Manhattan is just 1-3 on the year, and hasn't been any more promising than the Rams. And be aware, this is Fordham's home opener, as it's played two on the road and three on a neutral court.
The home team has won and covered the last three meetings, while the straight-up winner has covered five in a row in this series.
I'm siding with the home dog here.
3♦ FORDHAM
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is Florida at home over Marquette.
Tonight I expect the Gators to rout Marquette as I believe these are two teams headed in opposite directions.
The 7th-ranked Florida Gators are unbeaten so far and face a Marquette team that no one is really sure what to think about. They were a lot better than people thought they'd be last year, but they lose a couple of all Big East players to the NBA and now what?
Granted, Florida lost Bradley Beal to the Wizards, but it hasn't affected Billy Donovan's team whatsoever. They have reloaded and are going to be a force in the NCAA Tournament.
Marquette's lone loss this year was versus Butler (72-71) during the Maui Invitational, but there's a reason Vegas has listed this line at 10 or 11... because they know how good Florida is and how Marquette can get frustrated by good defense. Remember how Indiana was giving 10 points to NOrth Carolina and it seemed a bit high? The Hoosiers rolled to an easy win and cover. I see the same tonight.
Florida is off to a 5-0 start for the eighth time in 17 seasons under head coach Billy Donovan, and every win this year has been by double figures. The Gators are 4-0 at home, and their most recent triumph came against in-state rival Central Florida, 79-66. They will eventually run into someone who will challenge them, but I don't think that's tonight.
Take Florida as your free play of the day.
3♦ FLORIDA
Jeff Benton
42-28 free play run coming into Thursday.
Your Thursday freebie is the Under in Louisville-Rutgers tonight from New Jersey.
Let's face it, this game tonight for the right to participate in a BCS bowl game in January is going to be played close to the vest, and there just won't be many points scored.
Louisville is coming off an overtime Under (how rare is that?) at home against Connecticut, and the Huskies defense is quite similar to the stingy Rutgers defense that the Cardinals will be facing tonight on the road.
Cardinals QB Teddy Bridgewater broke his left wrist in last week's loss, and will have to play tonight out of the shotgun as he protects his dinged non-throwing hand. Expect the Rutgers defense to key on that fact and make their living tonight getting after the compromised Bridgewater.
Louisville and Rutgers played to a 16-14 final last season in Kentucky, and a carbon copy final score is very much in line tonight, as the Scarlet Knights to come into this home finale having played Under the total in three straight games and five of their last seven overall.
The vaunted Knights defense has allowed 15 points or less in eight of eleven games this year, and seven of their ten lined affairs have held Under the listed total.
Expect to hear the crowd chanting "DEE-FENSE, DEE-FENSE" many times tonight, and expect the defense to be bringing the heat on a chilly November night in North Jersey.
Louisville-Rutgers to hold Under..
3♦ LOUISVILLE-RUTGERS UNDER
Chris Jordan
Went 2-0 with the freebies last night, scoring with Kent State and Bradley. Tonight I am back on the hardwood with a free winner on Indiana-Purdue plus the number against Kansas City.
IUPUI comes in after a dominating performance against IU-East, as the Jaguars used a 19-0 first half blitz en route to an 87-54 win on Monday night. Junior P.J. Hubert came off the bench to score a career-high 22 points and senior John Hart added 15 points in limited minutes.
Coach Todd Howard has his troops playing well to start the season, and now in opening up Summit League play, I think he's going to lead his team to a road win behind his staunch defense. The Jaguars limited IUE to just 31.1 percent shooting and 2 of 17 (11.8 percent) from 3-point range, while they also won the glass 51-41, improving to 3-0 this season and 13-4 all-time under Howard when outrebounding the opposition.
The Jags should be fired up to outplay IUE, as they're 19-14 all-time against the Kangaroos. The Jaguars lost 64-62 in Kansas City last season, but could've won the game on the merits of Alex Young's 26-point effort.
Let's take a shot here with IUPUI here.
3♦ IUPUI
My second freebie for Thursday night is going to be out of the NBA, as I'm laying the points with the Denver Nuggets in Oakland, against the Golden State Warriors.
Just because the Nuggets stroll into Oaktown after a loss doesn't mean they won't be able to pull off a win on the road. Prior to losing Monday in Utah, the Nuggets reeled off four straight wins. And for some, those fans in Denver, I'd venture to say they think they should've won in Salt Lake City after building a 16-point lead. Denver also shot a season-high 54.8 percent and outrebounded the Jazz 38-31.
Because the Nuggets lost, I wouldn't be surprised if they're in avenge-mode, looking to take their collapse out on Golden State. They won't be short of confidence, as they've taken 11 of 14 in the series, including the last three by an average margin of 18.7 points.
That doesn't bode well for a Golden State team that has yielded a league-high 106.8 points per game over the last three seasons. The Nuggets roll in on ATS win streaks of 7-2 in this series overall and 4-1 the last five times they've visited Oakland.
Lay the points with Denver.
3♦ DENVER
Matt Rivers
Thursdays comp play will be to back the Denver Nuggets as the small road favorite tonight at Golden State.
Already the third meeting of the young season for these teams, and the Nuggets have been able to both win and cover the first two showdowns.
Denver taking it 102-91 on the 23rd at the Pepsi Center, and winning a double-overtime affair in Oaktown back on November 10th. Those wins put the Nuggets at 7-3 straight up the last ten series meetings, and also pushes George Karl's club to 7-2 against the spread the last nine meetings.
The Nuggets have been starting to find a rhythm here at the end of the first month, as they come to Golden State having won four of their last five, and they have covered in all five of those games.
With Bogut still missing for the Warriors, decided paint advantage tilts towards the visitors tonight.
Nuggs to make it 3-for-3 both straight up and against the spread this year versus the Warriors.
4♦ DENVER
Anthony Redd
Today's Complimentary Winner
Early season showdown in Miami tonight as the Heat (-5') host the Spurs.
Miami has won four in a row since falling in LA to the Clippers two weeks ago, but the foes have been less than stellar as they've downed the Nuggets, Suns, Bucks and Cavaliers. In fact when I look at the Heat's schedule this year, I see losses to the Knicks, Grizzlies and Clippers in their three biggest games of the season.
San Antonio arrives with a five-game winning streak dating back to its own loss to the Clippers two weeks back. But all five wins have come on its current road trip, which ends tonight as they've defeated the Celtics, Pacers, Raptors, Wizards and Magic to improve to 9-1 on the season.
Now I know the Heat are 5-0 at home this season and have won 28 of their last 30 in Miami in regular season play, but this is too big of a number against a hot San Antonio squad that's remembers getting pounded in each of its last two visits to South Beach, losing my 30 in March of 2011 and 22 last January.
Miami is averaging 104.8 points a game, second best in the league, but the Spurs are only giving up 95.1 an outing.
This is a three-point game, so cast your fate with the hot road dog.
1♦ SAN ANTONIO