Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 3

Jim Feist

Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers
Play: Chicago Blackhawks

First place Chicago continues to play well, with an offense that is one of the best in the NHL. They've scored 5 goals in each of the last 2 games (both wins). And when they're hot, they stay hot: The Blackhawks are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. They face a weak Panthers team that is just 7-17 in their last 24 home games. Florida is in the middle of the pack in goals scored and 24th in penalty killing, which will hurt against this strong Chicago offense. And the Blackhawks are 9-4-2 in the last 15 meetings. Play Chicago.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Tulsa/ UCF Under 48.5: 2.2 ppg. That's all you need to know. LOL. Just kidding, but it is an important number, as that is how many ppg the Knights have allowed in their 4 home games. Oh sure they haven't played an offense of this caliber at home yet, but this is still a very good defense. The Knights come in ranked 3rd in overall defense (245 ypg) and 5th in points allowed (14.2 ppg), plus tyhey are ranked 5th vs both the pass (160.9 ypg) and the run (84.5 ypg). This is one tough defense that does have the ability to slow down this strong Tulsa offense. The Knights did struggle some with the SMU offense, but that was on the road and this one is at home on national TV. this defense will be fired up. RThe Tulsa defense is no where near as strong, but they have allowed just 15.7 ppg and 332 ypg in their last 3 games and they are off a game where they held a very strong SMU offense to just 265 yards and 7 points. And yes that's the same SMU offense that hit the Knights for 440 yards and 38 poits a few games ago. The Knights though are not great on offense as they have scored 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games and they have put up just 22.1 ppg vs FBS teams this year. This is a team not bent on using their offense to win games as they try and wear you down with the ground game and defense, and that eats clock. There could be some offense in this one, but i keep looking at that 2.2 ppg the Knights allow at home and I just don't see Tuolsa getting many p[oints vs this defense, while the Knights conservative offense will keep them from putting up a tone of points as well. Look for a game in the mid 30's here.

2 UNIT PLAY

Florida State -14.5 over BOSTON COLLEGE: At the beginning of the year i pegged the Noles as one of the 2 best teams in the ACC and they are starting to play like the best. Since the return of EJ Manuel from injury, the Noles have gone 3-0 SU & ATS and have outscoured their opponents by 28 ppg and in those 3 games EJ has hit 70.2% of his passes for 824 yards with 5 TD's and just 2 INT's. Tonight he has the luxury of taking on a bad pass defense as the Eagles come in allowing 252.2 ypg through the air (96th) and they have allowed 64.2% pass completions (96th). The Noles will also look to get their running game going vs a BC defense that has allowed 197 ypg on the ground and 5.1 ypc in their their last 3 games. Ok we know the BC defense is bad, but their offense is just as bad ranking 104th overall, 101st in passing and 107th in scoring. Those are really noyt good rankings when you're about to face the bext defense in the ACC. The Noles are strong in just about every facet of their defense, as they 8th in total defense (276 ypg), 12th in points allowed (16.9 ppg), third in the nation in sacks (3.6 per game), fourth in rushing defense (77 YPG) and sixth in Tackles For Loss (8.0 per game), pus they have allowed just 158 total yards rushing 1.7 ypc in their last 3 games. I just don't see this BC offense putting enough points on the board to keep this one close vs an FSU team that is flat out rolling right now. KEY TRENDS--- BC is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games, while the road team has gone 5-1 the last 6.

FREE NHL PLAY FOR 11/3/2011: We'll fade New Jersey once again tonight, and make a small play on the Philadelphia Flyers on home ice at -160. The Flyers entered this season 13-5 in their last 18 games vs the Devils and already knocked them off 3-0 a few weeks ago in New Jersey. The Devils have been horrible, especially on the road where they've only won two of their last ten contests. The Flyers are averaging 3.73 goals/game while the Devils are averaging just 2.00 goals/game. New Jersey is showing that they no longer have that elite goaltending that enabled them to be a contender even with their dismal offensive production. Brodeur is a Hall of Famer and a class act. But he is now 39 yrs old and 22 years in the crease will take it's toll on any goaltender. He had his first start in over two weeks (shoulder injury) last night vs Toronto and surrendered 5 goals on 28 shots. Both clubs will be in their second game of back-to-back nights. However, New Jersey had its hands full with the red hot Toronto Maple Leafs, while the Flyers were somewhat on cruise control in Buffalo after scoring 3 first period goals off of all star Goalie Ryan Miller. We're not normally big fans of high money lines like this. With a moneyline of -150, you have to win 3 out of every 5 wagers just to break even. But knowing that the Flyers are 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs the Devils, mathematically this line actually holds value on Philadelphia on anything less than -250. Play the Philadelphia Flyers at home. Our Free Picks are documented and are currently 125-66-1, 4-1 L5. Sign up to receive our free plays with in-depth analysis today.

Hollywood Sports

Canucks at Wild
Play: Under

Minnesota (5-3-2-1) comes off two straight wins over the Red Wings in a home-and-home series that concluded with the Wild's 2-1 win in overtime at Detroit. Minnesota has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory. The Wild have also seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 after failing to score more than two goals. And in their last 21 home games, Minnesota has played 16 of these contests Under the Total. They face a Vancouver team that has won two straight games after their 5-1 win in Calgary on Tuesday. The Canucks have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring more than five goals in their last game. Vancouver has also seen the Under go a decisive 24-10-3 in their last 37 games when favored. Take the Under in this one.

Vegas Experts

Tulsa at Central Florida

Tulsa took on perhaps the most difficult non-conference schedule in the nation, facing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. While they certainly took their lumps in those contests, it has prepped them well for the Conference USA slate, where they are a perfect 5-0 straight up with every victory coming by a minimum of 17 points. Central Florida, quite simply, cannot keep up offensively in this matchup as the Knights scored 24 points or less in five straight games before a blowout of hapless Memphis last time out. The better team is getting points Thursday.

Play on: Tulsa

Matt Fargo

Winnipeg Jets vs. New York Islanders
Play: New York Islanders

This is the fourth road game in a seven-game roadtrip for the Jets which are 2-1 through the first three games of this trek. After losing its first three games of the season, Winnipeg has won four games and lost four games so it has been a solid turnaround. The problem has been consistency as the Jets have yet to put together consecutive victories as they are 0-3 following a win this season. Going back to the days in Atlanta it is Jets are 3-13-1 in its last 17 games as a road underdog between +110 and +150. The Islanders meanwhile have dropped five straight games after starting the season a solid 3-1-0. The schedule set up well for a strong start as New York had four consecutive home games to open the season but then three of the next four came on the road and the recent five-game losing streak has come against teams sitting at .500 or better on the year. The Islanders finally catch a break with a break in the slate here but they need to take advantage as the schedule after this gets real brutal. The injury situation for the Jets is not good as upper-body injuries to Toby Enstrom and Mark Stuart could potentially leave the Jets down four of their top seven defensemen. These are two key losses as Enstrom plays big minutes, no one blocks more shots on the team than Stuart. It is possible that Stuart goes as it will be decided during the team's skatearound but it is very unlikely. This has been the Jets weakness to begin with so it is going to make matters much worse. Winnipeg is allowing 3.4 gpg which is second worst in the NHL while its penalty kill percentage is ranked in the bottom eight. Both of these get even worse on the road. The Jets have allowed at least four regulation goals in four of their seven road games. The Islanders have not played since Saturday and that break came at a great time as the four days make a perfect period to regroup. New York is 9-2 in its last 11 home games following a home loss by one goal. 3* New York Islanders

Rob Vinciletti

Ducks vs. Rangers
Play: Under 5.5

This game should be a tight game similar to the earlier meeting that was a tight 2-1 game. Anaheim has played under in 4 of 5 vs teams under .500 and both times this season after allowing 4 or more goals. The Rangers have played under the total in 10 of 12 off 3+ home games, 7 of the last 8 off 3 or more overs and 26 of 38 off a non conference game. When they play teams that are under .500 the have played under all 4 times. In the series 5 of the last here have gone under. Look for more of the same tonight.

David Chan

Winnipeg @ New York Islanders
PICK: New York Islanders

I bet value where I see it and expect the home side to ground the Jets tonight.

The Islanders have lost five straight and are desperate to say the least.

New York started 3-1 but has since gone 0-3-2 to fall back into the cellar.

But the Isles have been off since a 3-2 setback to San Jose on Saturday, coming into this contest well rested.

“Our game has come a long way,” John Tavares commented on his team's comeback from a 3-0 deficit to the Sharks, coming up just short. “If we continue to play like that … we’re going to win a lot more hockey games than we lose.

“We need a win and we need to get back on track, but we’ve got to stay positive. It’s early in the year, and if we keep playing that way I like our chances.”

Winnipeg has alternated wins and losses over its last five games, and is coming off a 4-3 shootout victory on Monday at Florida; this marks a stretch of four games over the next six days for the Jets.

Expect home starter Rick DiPietro to outduel his counterpart Ondrej Pavelec in net and for the Isles to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; great line value here!

EZWINNERS

Florida State Seminoles -14.5

Florida State has followed up their three game losing streak by winning three straight games against the bottom feeder of the ACC and this is another one of those games. Boston College picked up their first FBS win last week at Maryland in a sloppy game where the weather didn't expose their lack of team speed. That lack of speed will be on full display in this game against a very fast Seminoles team. FSU has some of the best defensive numbers in the nation as they are allowing just 277 yards per game and should have no problem with the Boston College offense that ranks 104th in the nation in total offense. The FSU offense has put up 29 points or more in nine out of their last ten road games and they will be too much for an overmatched BC team. Lay the points.

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best NCAA CFB Bets

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (+14.5, 44)

We have to give FSU some credit. The team could have given up on its season after dropping three straight games after winning three in a row at the outset. The Noles lost all three of those games without QB EJ Manuel for at least pieces of all of those games. However, since that point, the garnet and gold have scored three wins by at least 25 points. Manuel is still battling nagging injuries, but he is getting the job done as a whole, and now, the team is sneaking around near the Top 25 again, and perhaps even a spot in the BCS isn’t totally out of the question if the squad can win out and get some help along the way. Defensive Coordinator Mark Stoops has done a heck of a job with this unit this year. Sure, the two defeats against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Clemson Tigers were bad, but this unit still ranks No. 8 in the land in total defense at 277.1 yards per game and No. 12 in scoring at 16.9 points per game. If this unit can keep it up, the offense has enough talent to make the Seminoles a legitimate force again.

The Eagles are probably one of the worst teams in the AQ conferences. The good news is that they are coming off of a big win over the Maryland Terrapins, but the bad news is that the schedule is still brutal from here on out. Last week was the first time that BC scored more than 26 points in a game against an FBS team in almost three full years. Head Coach Frank Spaziani and the crew rank No. 104 in total offense and No. 89 i in total defense, not a good combination for a team that really hasn’t played the meat and potatoes of its schedule at this point. QB Chase Rettig was more or less thrown into the fire last year with the Eagles desperately looking for a signal caller. His stats are improving just a bit, but they’re still nothing to write home about. He has thrown for just 1,418 yards and seven TDs against seven picks, and he is only completing 51.5 percent of his passes. That being said, the ground game is at least suitable, as RBs Rolandan Finch and Andre Williams have combined for 914 rushing yards.

Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles Pick: In the end, we just don’t see the Eagles being able to put up all that much of a fight in this game. The Noles are just the clearly superior team, and by the second half, it should really start to show. Don’t be shocked if this ends up being a four touchdown game when it’s said and done.

PICK: Florida State -14.5

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UCF Knights (-1.5, 48.5)

Conference USA is about to be shaken up by the Big East, as a number of teams are about to head to the BCS conference. That being said, the UCF Knights are going to be shipping out in all likelihood after this year, but they are going to want to make one more big time push in Conference USA before departing, and that means that they are going to have to take down the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Thursday night in NCAA football betting action.

The Golden Hurricane have had themselves a heck of a whirlwind of a season. They started off the year at 1-3, but in fairness, they played three Top 5 teams in the country in the Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and Boise State Broncos. Aside from that, the team is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, and it has put up at least 31 points in all of its games. Remember though, that that isn’t the end of the distraction that this team has had. WR Damaris Johnson, one of the top all purpose yardage men in the history of college football was booted off the team at the start of the year, and Head Coach Todd Graham left for the University of Pittsburgh well after most of the coaches were already signed thanks to the off the field problems of Mike Haywood. Sure, the Tulsa defense stinks, ranking No. 80 or worse in virtually every major defensive category, but the offense has done it all this year. QB GJ Kinne has thrown for 1,895 yards, and both RBs Ja’Terian Douglas and Trey Watts have over 500 rushing yards. This is a dangerous, dangerous team.

The Knights have reached their turning point and potentially a crossroad of their school’s history. They are likely headed to the Big East after this season is over, and they are doing so after a year which could be classified as a disaster, or a reasonable accomplishment. Head Coach George O’Leary led this team to the Conference USA championship last year, and the expectations with a team that largely came back, especially on offense, were very high. Instead, the offense has been lackluster, and the team is just 4-4 to show for its first eight games. That being said, winning out would still send this team to the Conference USA Championship Game once again. This is a tough, tough road ahead though, as these next two games come against the Golden Hurricane and the East Division leaders, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. If those two games are lost, any further slip would take UCF out of bowl eligibility. If the Knights are going to win this game, they’re going to have to play well defensively. The team is the only one in America, including the Alabama Crimson Tide, that rank in the Top 5 in the land in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and scoring.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ UCF Knights Pick: In the history of UCF’s brand new stadium, there haven’t been all that many primetime games. That being said, the Knights just aren’t the better team in this game. Tulsa is going to come on the road and crush the Bright House Networks Stadium crowd, one which should be raucous.

PICK: Tulsa +1.5

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +126 over SAN JOSE

Lots to like about the Pens here and it starts with goaltending. Marc Andre Fleury has been brilliant while Anti Niemi is average, always has been and always will be. Niemi is often down on his knees and deep in the crease before a shot is even taken and that puts him in an extremely vulnerable position over and over again. Furthermore, the Sharks return home from a grueling six-games in 10 nights road trip. Fatigue is an issue and the Penguins are about the last team anyone would want to see upon returning home from a long trip because they’re physical, disciplined and they’ll methodically wear you down. Pittsburgh has won five of six and they come in here well rested after playing in Toronto on Saturday night. The Sharkies are solid and they’re always going to be tough to beat but this is not a favorable spot for them. The Pens are always a live dog and with a big edge in net and with a strong situational edge too, the Pens are certainly worthy of a close look here. Play: Pittsburgh +126 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. ISLANDERS -½ +120 over Winnipeg

Winnipeg has won two of its last three and three of its last five but that’s somewhat of an illusion. They beat Philly only because they scored nine goals on 25 shots otherwise they may have lost 8-1 after Philly scored eight goals on 45 shots. The Jets caught the Panthers returning home from a trip and scored a late goal to send it into OT and subsequently win it in OT. No team in the NHL gives up more scoring chances and with Tobias Enstrom and a couple of other regular D-men on the rack, things aren’t about to get better anytime soon. The Islanders stock is low after five straight losses and that provides us with a “buy low” opportunity. A close look reveals that the Islanders last three losses came against the Pens twice and the Sharks and two of those three games went into OT. Now the Islanders, a team in a foul mood, will take a big step down in class against these Jets. Reports are that their practices over the past few days have been upbeat and spirited and they’ll take that to the ice against a beatable Jets team playing their fourth straight on the road. Play: N.Y. Islanders -½ +120 (Risking 2 units).

Edmonton +154 over LOS ANGELES

Despite a very decent 6-3-2 record, The Kings have not looked that sharp and have now dropped three of their past four games. They could snap out of it at any time and but until they do, they’re a good fade as a big fav. What’s really appealing about the Oilers, aside from the tag, is they embark on a six game trip beginning here and will play 10 of its next 12 on the road. This is a crucial stretch for them and the first game of said trip sets the tone. Regardless of whether they win or lose, the effort and will to win will be present. Also, the Oilers lost all four games to the Kings last season and they have to be sick of losing to them. This is a different Oilers team this season. They’re finding ways to win whereas a year ago they were finding ways to lose. That’s a huge change in mindset and let’s not ignore that the Oilers have won five in a row and they didn’t beat a bunch of cellar dwellers either. The Oilers five wins came against the Blue Notes, Rangers, Caps, Canucks and Avalanche and that’s a serious group of playoff contenders. It’s a good spot for the Oil at a great price, as a young and talented club that gets on a roll is a dangerous team. Play: Edmonton +154 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO +110 over Hamilton

Final game of the season sees the Ticats playing for nothing while awaiting their playoff opponent. In a similar situation last week, an uninterested Saskatchewan club soundly beat the Tabbies and there’s no reason to believe this one will be any different. Hamilton’s only concern after 18 long weeks is to stay healthy. This is an erratic Ticat team to begin with and when you add in no motivation, one really has to wonder why they even care. An argument could be made that they don’t want to go into the playoffs cold but we’re not buying that. They want to go into the playoffs healthy and give themselves the best possible chance of winning. Perhaps Hamilton will try and stay sharp for a half or less but the second half will likely see them going through the motions only with a lot of second stringers in there. For the Argos it’s too little too late but they’re playing their finest football of the year and they’re also playing as good as anyone. The Argos special teams keeps putting them in great position and the defense is far superior than that of the Ticats. This is the Argos farewell message to the rest of the league that they’re going to make some noise next season and they’ll stamp that with a convincing win over a team that would rather be elsewhere. Play: Toronto +110 (Risking 3 units).

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Florida State Seminoles to cover on the road against Boston College.

After a little bump in the road, Florida State has put three impressive wins together as it routed Duke, Maryland and N.C. State. Boston College has lost three of its last four games.

Florida State is averaging 35.6 points a game and 433 total yards and the defense is doing the job, allowing only 16.9 points a game. Quarterback E.J. Manuel leads Florida State. But running back Devonta Freeman has two 100-yards games in the past three games for Florida State.

Being home has not been a big advantage for Boston College. It is 1-3 at home and averaging only 19.9 points a game.

Boston College will rely on Sophomore running back Rolandan Finch, who had 243 yards and two TDS against Maryland last week.

Florida State will stack against the run and slow down Finch and dare Boston College to pass the ball, which it does not do very effectively.

2♦ FLORIDA STATE

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday night freebie is to grab whatever points you can get with the streaking Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

Bill Blankenship has done a wonderful job at Tulsa in his first year, as he has his team on a four game winning streak, and 5-3 overall this season. A closer look at those three losses shows heavyweights Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State as the teams that Tulsa has dropped decisions against. There is no school on Central Florida's schedule that can match that kind of caliber of play, and the Knights are just 4-4 to show for their body of work this season!

Central Florida snapped a two game losing streak with a satisfying 41-0 blanking of Memphis, but the Tigers aren't exactly the "cream of the crop" now are they? Prior to that win, the Knights had lost four of five straight up, and ALL five against the spread.

Tulsa is 5-2 their last seven tries as the road underdog, and they have been scoring over 38 points per game their last four games, so expect the Knights to have trouble contending with that kind of firepower tonight.

These schools have not met since 2008, and that was a 30-point win for Tulsa at home over UCF. The linemakers have this one priced near a pick, but I think the Golden Hurricane are going to take this game by at least a touchdown.

Tulsa your freebie for Thursday night.

3♦ TULSA

MATT RIVERS

Your Thursday free play is Tulsa as the small road underdog at Central Florida.

This game is a matter of hot-and-cold, and Tulsa is your "hot" team tonight boys.

The Golden Hurricane comes into this contest with wins in four in a row, and covers in three of their last five. Tulsa has been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging 38.5 ppg during their four game winning streak, while UCF is averaging just under 21 ppg their last six games, and that average would be lower had the Knights not padded their stats with a 41-0 win over lowly Memphis their last time out.

Tulsa has already faced Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State this year, and they do bring a 5-2 spread mark their last seven tries as the road underdog into Orlando this Thursday night.

Go with streaking Tulsa to come through on the road against a Central Florida team that is on a 2-4 straight up slide.

4♦ TULSA