DEREK MANCINI
For tonight's Free Play, I'm making a small, but solid play on Boston College to keep their game within the number hosting Florida State. It's not so much that I think the Eagles are any good, but rather the tremendous public backing of the obvious favorite here that has me fading the Seminoles.
Oddsmakers aren't stupid. They know everyone in the betting world will be playing the surging 'Noles here, so why in the hell would they give away money by setting a line that would reward all their backers?! In other words, this line is big enough for BC to cover, but not big enough to scare away a public that's all hot and heavy for FSU.
All we've heard about in the media is how the return of EJ Manuel has saved the FSU season, but let's not get carried away. Yes, the 'Noles are clearly a better football team with Manuel at the helm, but he's been back for a while now and his presence is fully factored into the line. Don't get caught up in the media hype surrounding the Noles tonight, that is exactly what the guys in Vegas want.
Finally, if you ever needed any proof of this game staying with the generous number consider their past meetings. 11, 5, 10, 10, 7, and 5... Those are the margins of victory in this series in their last 6 meetings, as you can see all well within the two+ touchdowns we're getting here. Of course, this is a better FSU team than we've seen in a while, but regardless these two teams are familiar with one another, and BC knows they must win here to keep their slim bowl hopes alive. Between motivation, home field, familiarity and a generous number look for the Eagles to deliver the cash tonight. Take Boston College plus the points over Florida State Thursday.
2♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Boston College +15.5
Boston College always seems to get up for Florida State. On the road as a 22.5-point underdog last year, the Eagles played the Noles to a 5-point game. As a 3.5-point home dog in 2009, BC pulled out a 28-21 victory. As a 6.5-point road dog in 2008, BC shocked FSU with a 27-17 win. These teams have met 6 times dating back to 2005. BC has won 3 of them and hasn't gone down by more than 11 points in its 3 losses. In addition, history suggests this is a good spot to back the Eagles. Consider that home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points, provided they are coming off 1 or more consecutive straight up wins and it is after the first month of the season, are 71-35 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have only lost by an average of 10.7 points while facing an average line of 14.5. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or more points. The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points tonight.
Jack Jones
Florida State -14
After a slow start to the season with several key injuries along the way, the Florida State Seminoles have finally gotten healthy and turned things around. Remember, this was a national title contender coming into the season before three early losses set them back.
Florida State is still one of the most talented teams in the country, and they have been proving that over the last three weeks. FSU is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning each by at least 25 points, and outscoring their opponents 116-32 in the process.
This is clearly a rebuilding year for Boston College, which sits at 2-6 on the season with their only wins coming against Massachusetts and Maryland. Their offense is one-dimensional, and their defense is clearly not as dominant as it has been over the last decade.
BC only averages 179 passing yards/game this season and 146 rushing yards/game for 326 total yards/game. They give up 422 yards/game defensively. BC hasn't thrown for more than 196 yards in any of their last five contests, and they've clearly been relying a lot on their running game.
This is a perfect match-up for Florida State as they give up just 16.9 points/game while ranking 7th in the country in total defense (277.1 yards/game). FSU is extremely tough against the run, ranking 4th in the land in run defense (77.0 yards/game) while giving up just 2.2 yards/carry.
BC did manage to keep last year's game close against Florida State in a 19-24 loss. But the Eagles only gained 266 total yards in that game, 191 of which came from Montel Harris in the running game. The senior star Harris has been battling a knee injury this year and he's out for the season.
Quarterback Chase Rettig is back at the helm this year, and he went just 9 of 24 passing for 95 yards against the Seminoles last season. FSU allowed the Eagles to keep it close because they committed four turnovers, while BC didn't give it away once. I look for FSU to take care of the football tonight, and when they do they will run away with this one because this is about as big of a mismatch as you will find.
The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. FSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Boston College is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Florida State Thursday.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Vancouver -129 over MINNESOTA: The Canucks seem to have their swagger back a little. A couple of days after beat Washington 7-4 they went to Calgary and won 5-1. They are beginning to look like the team that lead the NHL in scoring last year. Now they head to Minnesota to take on a Wild team that has played very well in the early going, but still a team that has lost the last 4 in the series. Minnesota has played great defense this year so far (2.09 GAA), but this team can't score as they have averaged just 1.9 gpg on the year so far and you need to score when playing the Canucks. I just don't see Minnesota having enough offense to win this one.
3 UNIT PLAY
NY ISLANDERS -130 over Winnipeg: The Isles had a nice start to the year, but closed out October with 5 straight losses. Well they have had 4 days rest to think about that and they will come into this one rejuvenated and and on fresh legs. They had played well in heir last 2 games vs NHL Powers San Jose and Pittsburgh as both games needed OT or a shootout to settle the score. Winnipeg has played good of late, winning 2 of their last 3 after a horrible start, but they have struggled at the defensive end on the road as they have allowed 33 shots per game and 3.86 gpg. That poor play at that end of the Ice should help a struggling Isles attack get going. NY was robbed in their last game vs the Sharks as a blown call allowed San Jose to tie the game late and win it in OT, so you know the Isles are very anxious to get back out their with a good showing. Look for a complete game by NY here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Chicago -130 over FLORIDA: The Blackhawks are off to a fine start this year as should be able to take care of a Florida team that they have gone 9-4-2 vs over the last 15 meetings. We also note that Florida is just 5-22 in their last 27 games as a home dog of +110 to +150. Chicago should roll here.
Steve Janus
Florida State/Boston College UNDER 46
Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER the total of 46 set for this game. The one game that didn't only saw 49 points put on the scoreboard. Both of these teams pride themselves on the defensive side of the football, and I except a very defensive minded game tonight.
Boston College isn't as strong defensively as they have been in years past, but are only giving up 22 ppg at home this season. With this game being played on ESPN I expect to see maximum effort from the Eagles defensive players, as they feed off playing one of the top teams in the conference in front of what should be a rowdy home crowd.
Florida State comes in riding a three game winning streak, and the main reason has been the outstanding play of their defense. The Seminoles have allowed just 32 points during that stretch and are coming in off a shutout over NC State. In order to have success against Florida State's defense you have to be able to throw the football, as they come in allowing just 77 ypg on the ground. Boston College's passing game is one of the worst in the country, averaging just 176.4 ypg.
The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Seminoles last 22 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater and 12-3-1 in Eagles last 16 conference games. BET THE UNDER 46!
Dave Price
1 Unit Florida State/Boston College Under 46
The Key: B.C. has been an unders machine since coach Spaziani came aboard. Under Spaziani, the Eagles are 24-9 UNDER in all lined games, including 7-1 UNDER this season. In addition, the Eagles are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games as an underdog. We've seen just 39.8 total points scored in these 16 contests. Bet the Under.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Akron +14.5
Akron has lost 4 in a row but has covered the number in 3 of those games. The books will continue to make money with Akron until the public starts backing the Zips. As expected, the public is all over Miami Ohio following its 41-13 win over Buffalo. That blowout win actually bodes well for us as the Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. They are also 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Akron played Miami tough last season, only losing by 5 points as an 8-point dog to get the cover. We'll take the points with Akron tonight.
Rocketman
Pittsburgh @ San Jose
Play: San Jose -130
San Jose is 27-11 last 3 years after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game. San Jose has won 5 of their last 6 games overall. San Jose is 8-2 at home vs Pittsburgh since 1996 and swept Pittsburgh last year winning both meetings. Pittsburgh is 1-4 last 5 games after 3 or more days rest. Pittsburgh is 1-7 last 8 games against a team with a winning record. San Jose is 38-13 last 51 after a loss by 3 goals or more. San Jose is 25-10 last 35 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. San Jose is 21-9 last 30 home games. Favorite is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Home team is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. Penguins are 3-13-1 in the last 17 meetings. Penguins are 0-8-1 in the last 9 meetings in San Jose. We'll recommend a small play on San Jose tonight!