Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 4,2010

Tom Freese

Columbus Blue Jackets at Atlanta Thrashers
Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus is 4-0 their last 4 meetings with Atlanta. The Blue Jackets are 14-3 their last 17 games vs. Southeast Division teams. Columbus 4-1 their last 5 games and they are 4-1 their last 5 Thursday games. Atlanta is 10-41 their last 51 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Thrashers are 37-78-7 their last 122 Thursday games. Atlanta is 0-5 vs. Central Division teams. The Thrashers are 2-6 of a win.

Frank Jordan

Buffalo U vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -16

Buffalo University isn't playing much better then the pro football team, but at least they have a couple of wins as they sit at 2-6. It was a good start with a win in their opening game, but since have lost six of seven all by double digits. Ohio is tied in conference record with Temple in the MAC's East division and just a game back overall record wise. Ohio has reeled off 5 wins in a row after dropping three of their first four games. At home this season Ohio is 4-1 and in those wins scored over 30 points in each. Look for Ohio to continue to play well and win at home as they dominate Buffalo.

Jim Feist

New York Knicks vs. Chicago Bulls
Take: New York Knicks +7

The NY Knicks have an uptempo offense and they are improved this season with Amare Stoudemire teamed with guard Raymond Felton. They are averaging 98 ppg and allowing 99 ppg (2-0-1 ATS). They were a big dog at Boston and made it close in a 105-101 loss and won at Toronto as a dog. Chicago has played one uptempo team this season and lost to Oklahoma City, giving up 106 points. This shapes up as a close one, grab the dog. Play the NY Knicks.

Ross Benjamin

Buffalo vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -15.5

Any conference home favorite of 17.0 or less that has a winning percentage of .454 or better, they are facing an opponent off BB conference home underdog ATS losses, and they failed to cover their previous game by 9.5 or more is 12-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 12 games by an average of 21.9 PPG.

Any away underdog of 23.0 or less that's coming off of BB home underdog ATS losses, they scored 9 points or less in each of their previous two games, and has a winning percentage of less than .500 is 0-4 SU&ATS since 1980. The favorite has won those 4 games by an average of 24.3 PPG.

James Patrick Sports

Sharks vs. Blues

With San Jose on the road making a Midwestern swing and St. Louis idle since last Saturday Night, Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection on the NHL ice is #57 San Jose - St. Louis Under the Total. These teams have played Under the Total in (5) of (6) meetings and the Blues are Under the Total in (5) of (7) when they are off for three or more days.

Larry Ness

New York @ Chicago
PICK: Chicago -7

The Knicks have to be happy with the new additions of Stoudemire (21.3-7.7) and PG Felton (16.0-5.7 APG) plus rookie Fields (11.0-7.3). However, just how much better will the team be this year? New York travels to take on the 2-1 Bulls, who are led by former New York assistant Tom Thibodeau. Despite the loss of Carlos Boozer to a broken right hand, the Bulls look as if they may be a legitimate contender in the East's Central Division. Rose (27.7-5.0-8.7) is a MAJOR star plus Deng (20.7), Noah (14.3-15.3) and Gibson (13.0-4.7) will all benefit when Boozer returns (numbers may decrease but all will be better players). The home team went 3-0 SU and ATS in this series last year but the Knicks haven't had any success in Chicago for a very long time. In fact, New York will be trying to win for just the THIRD time in its last 19 visit to Chicago, tonight (note: we are NOT talking about the MJ-led Bulls, either!). Lay the points.

ROCKETMAN

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -12.5

Virginia Tech is 13-4 ATS last 3 years and 4-0 ATS this year after 2 or more consecutive wins. Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS last 3 years in Weeks 10 to 13. Virginia Tech is 18-7 ATS since 1992 and 5-1 ATS last 3 years when playing on Thursday. Virginia Tech is 12-3 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. Virginia Tech is scoring 37 points per game overall this year and 41.2 points per game at home this season. After losing their first two games of the season, Virginia Tech has won 6 games in a row heading into tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Virginia Tech tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech OVER 56

Right away I like the fact that plays Over on any team (VA Tech in this case) in a game involving two average defensive teams (allowing 330 to 390 ypg), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, are 49-18 the last 10 seasons. This system is an impressive 19-5 Over the last 3 seasons and 4-1 already this year. It is also worth noting that we are seeing an average of 66.8 total points scored in this situation.

VA Tech has been an Overs machine this season, playing to the Over in 5 of 7 lined games. Georgia Tech has played to the Over in 4 of 7 lined contests. The fact that Georgia Tech has played to the Under in back-to-back games has brought this line down. With this in mind, it is certainly worth noting that the Yellow Jackets are a perfect 9-0 Over in their last 9 games off 2 or more consecutive unders. We are seeing 57.5 total points scored on average in these games. Bet the Over tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Columbus +1.11 over ATLANTA

The Jackets have quietly won four of its last five games and only has one road loss this year in four trips. They’re getting some solid play from G Mathieu Garon and he’ll be back in the net tonight. He’s 3-0 with a .968 save percentage and a 0.86 GAA. Columbus is coming off a near flawless win over the Habs in a game in which all four lines contributed significantly. The Jackets are blocking a ton of shots and that’s a strategy that new coach, Scott Arniel is putting a lot of emphasis on. It’s working. The Thrashers are a talented group that plays a much more wide-open style than the Jackets. They played last night in Florida and won 4-3 despite being dominated the whole game and being outshot 55-23. Atlanta is a team that is careless in its own end and that continues to cause problems for them. Thrasher games have had seven or more goals in six straight games and that’s something you don’t see too often. This is a team that’s very beatable because of its poor defensive play and they’re simply much more appealing as the pooch than they are as the chalk. Columbus is rested and playing well while the Thrashers somehow managed to survive a barrage of fire last night. The Jackets have a lot more sharp-shooters than the Panthers and some of those pucks are going to find the back of the net. Play: Columbus +1.11 (Risking 2 units).

NY Islanders +1.72 over Ottawa

The Islanders are coming off consecutive blowout losses to Philly and Carolina and its stock took a dramatic plunge in the process. They’ve been outscored 13-3 in those two games and have now lost five in a row after only losing once in regulation in its first seven games. What’s interesting is that Rick DiPietro has been in net in those two losses and while they were badly outplayed last night they certainly were not outplayed in Philly in that other loss. Fact is, DiPietro is a stiff and had they not signed him to a ridiculously huge contract they would not play him. These soft goals take the steam right out of a team and DiPietro can’t stop anything. It was 3-0 last night in the first 10 minutes and once that third goal occurred it was game over. The Isles will go with Dwayne Roloson tonight and they’ve either won or been in every game he’s played. After two embarrassing losses they get a quick return to the ice and win or lose here, you’re going to get a good run for your money. Besides, the Sens are not much at all. They’ve won three of its last four but the wins came against Toronto, Phoenix and Florida, all struggling teams and the Sens were not the better team on the ice in any of them. This a game in which the favorite is way overpriced based on the past two or three games and playing the Sens here is a huge risk because they’re not close to being a strong club that warrants a tag like this. Overlay. Play: N.Y. Islanders +1.72 (Risking 2 units).

Lenny Del Genio

Ohio -16 vs Buffalo

Perfect trends on both sides of the spectrum here at Buffalo is 0-10 ATS when the betting total is between 42.5 and 49 while Ohio U is a perfect 9-0 ATS if they went Over the total in its previous game. Buffalo is a horrible 2-6 SU with one of those wins coming against non-lined Rhode Island. Their only other win came by two over Bowling Green. They have failed to cover the spread in every loss this season and over the last three weeks its gotten positively ugly with opponents outscoring them 108-23! The Bobcats are heading in the other direction with five straight victories (4-1 ATS) with four wins coming by double digits, all vs. MAC opponents. Take Ohio.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Ohio Bobcats -15.5

With this being the last home game of the season for the Bobcats, I expect them to leave it all out on the field tonight. If they do that, they should be able to cover this number against an inferior Buffalo squad. The Bobcats have been running up the score on the opposition. In fact, they have won their last 5 games by 18.6 points on average. Buffalo has lost 6 games straight up this season, and those six losses have also been ATS defeats, coming by 25.2 points on average. Ohio is 11-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and 9-1 ATS when playing against a poor team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

Info Plays

3* on Buffalo +16:

Reasons the Bulls cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (BUFFALO) - after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. This is a 36-14 ATS System hitting 72% over the last 5 seasons. The clear value in this game is with the big underdog. Bet Buffalo on the road.

Info Plays

3* on Buffalo +16:

Reasons the Bulls cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (BUFFALO) - after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. This is a 36-14 ATS System hitting 72% over the last 5 seasons. The clear value in this game is with the big underdog. Bet Buffalo on the road.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Buffalo Bulls +16

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BUFFALO) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has covered the spread in 2 out of its last 3 games, are an awesome 104-50 ATS the last 10 seasons. Team fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 15.2 points on average, but they have only lost by an average of 11.8 points. Take the Bulls and the points.