Jeff Benton
Va. Tech at E. CAROLINA +13
Got my second straight NBA free-play winner Wednesday, as the Magic routed the Suns. For Thursday, I’ll shift gears and head to college football and back East Carolina plus the points against Virginia Tech.
I know this is a big revenge spot for the Hokies, who lost 27-22 to East Carolina as a nine-point road favorite last year (the Pirates got the game-winning points on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown with less than two minutes to play). But does the revenge angle override the letdown angle? Because I cannot imagine Virginia Tech being at all motivated for this game tonight, not after the way its season went down the toilet the last two weeks.
After crushing Boston College 48-14 on Oct. 10 for their fifth straight win, the Hokies were back in the Top 5 and dreaming of a national championship. But then came the big THUD, as Va-Tech suffered heartbreaking upset losses to Georgia Tech (28-23 as a 3½-point road favorite) and North Carolina (20-17 as a 14½-point home favorite). Now, not only are the Hokies’ national title hopes kaput, they’ve got virtually no shot at even reaching the ACC Championship Game. And now they’re supposed to “get up” for a mid-season non-conference road game? I don’t see it happening.
East Carolina comes into this game having won two in a row and four of five, going 3-1 ATS in the last four. The Pirates have hung tough with the Hokies the last two years, too, losing 17-7 as a 27½-point underdog in 2007 prior to last year’s outright upset. Finally, East Carolina has thrived as an underdog under coach Skip Holtz, going 20-7 ATS in its last 27 as a ‘dog overall, 10-3 ATS in its last 13 as a home ‘dog and 8-1 ATS in its last nine as a ‘dog of more than 10 points. On the other hand, the Hokies are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last five as a chalk. Take the points.
4♦ EAST CAROLINA
MTi Sports
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Bulls are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) on the road with at least a day of rest after a win at home in which Kirk Hinrich scored fewer than 10 points and 0-5 ATS (-6.8 ppg) after a win at home in which Luol Deng played more than 40 minutes. The Cavs are 15-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line, as long as they did not win that game by more than 20 points. Lay the number.
Randall the Handle
ANAHEIM -½ +1.01 over Nashville
The Ducks are this year’s biggest underachievers thus far with just 10 points in 13 games and that puts them dead last in the West. That’s just sick for a team of this caliber and they have to know they’re digging themselves a hole that if it gets much deeper will be very difficult to climb out of. These Ducks are not even close to being one of the worst teams in the NHL and in fact, they just might be one of the top 10 in terms of talent. They just can’t afford to lose at home to teams like the Preds and I just can’t imagine them not giving it their all after losing its sixth game in seven contests on Tuesday. With this home game and another one on Saturday against the Coyotes, the Ducks find themselves in as close to a must-win position as a team can be in early November because after Saturday they head out on a demanding four-game road swing that winds its way through New Jersey, Columbus, Detroit and Pittsburgh. Anaheim put forth a tremendous effort against Pittsburgh on Tuesday and deserved a better fate and if they play anything close to the way they did that night, they’ll win and they’ll win going away. The Preds are pesky and determined but they’re just not in the same class as the Ducks. Play: Anaheim -½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
BOSTON -½ +1.04 over Montreal
You know for sure the Bruins are going to extra jacked up here because they and its fans get more pleasure out of beating the Habs than they do against anyone else. The B’s are in an offensive funk right now and that would normally be a concern but this isn’t the Red Wings, Flyers, Rangers or Devils they’re playing. No, this is one of the most beatable teams on ice that is just a game under .500 but by the end of the year they’ll be far below that. Montreal has lost three of four with only win over that stretch coming against the Leafs in OT in a game they had no business winning. They have three good players and the rest, especially the defense, would have trouble cracking the line-up of most teams. Dating back to last year the Canadiens have won just seven of its last 30 road games and there’s very little chance that a hungry Bruins team is going to change that. Boston is a very good team and a great defensive team and it’s only a matter of time before they start stringing some wins together and it all starts here. Play: Boston -½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Columbus +1.19 over ATLANTA
The Thrashers have not performed well at home with just one win in four games and that could be because of what ails so many other teams this season. Watching NHL games on the tube you see a ton of empty seats in the house and the seats that are empty are the best in the arena. New Jersey is playing to small crowds, as is the Islanders, Nashville, Florida, Tampa, Phoenix, to a lesser extent Colorado and these Thrashers. It’s sad to watch but it just proves how ridiculous it is that Florida has two NHL teams while Winnipeg has none. Anyway, the point is that it’s uninspiring for these teams to come home and play to a half empty arena. They get pumped up to play in places like Toronto, Montreal New York, Detroit, Boston, Chicago or any other Canadian city. Playing at home is anti-climatic and it explains why these teams are playing better on the road. These guys come to the arena in a good state of mind and in the pre-game skate or warm-up, about an hour before game time, the place is absolutely empty. It’s completely uninspiring and it’s disheartening before the game even starts. In Toronto, Montreal, New York, Detroit, Philly and a few more places the rink is filling up in the pre-game warm-ups, the fans are pumped and it in turn gets the players pumped as well. Hell, the WNBA is attracting more fans in some places and it 100% makes a difference and most definitely takes away home ice advantage. Hockey is hockey and players love playing this game but in some cases they need a boost from the crowd and teams like Atlanta just can’t get it. The Thrashers are 5-1-0-1 on the road but were badly outplayed in its last two, especially in Ottawa where they were outshot 51-21. They’ll likely get outplayed again tonight in front of another half-empty, uninspiring joint. Play: Columbus +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Miami (OH) at Temple
This is an overlay and even better is the fact that the public is taking the number in the wrong direction. Temple has had a remarkable turnaround since a season opening loss to FCS Villanova and then a blowout at Penn State by winning each of their last six games to take control of the MAC East. However, only one of their wins have come by more than 15 points, including a close call here at home vs. then-winless Ball State. Miami is off its first win of the year, but was more than competitive prior to that, staying within the number in three of their four previous games. In three all-time meetings, Miami has more first downs and more total yards than do the Owls.
Play on: Miami (OH)
Erik Scheponik
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Play: San Antonio Spurs -1
The Spurs are a definite threat to the Lakers in the West, while its looking more and more like the Jazz should have made an offseason move or two. They blew a big 4th quarter lead at Dallas, and are still beat up with Korver, Miles, and Harpring all still out for this one. Spurs haven't played since Saturday and have won and covered 7 out of 9 in this series. The steal of the draft Dejuan Blair along with Antonio Mcdyess give this team the nastiness upfront they've been missing behind Tim Duncan, and with Ginobili healthy, this team is clearly one of the league's elite. Spurs by 5
John Ryan
Virginia Tech at East Carolina
Prediction: East Carolina
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on East Carolina as they face Virginia Tech set to start at 7:45 EST and can be seen on ESPN. AiS shows a 72% probability that East Carolina will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Just a few weeks ago Virginia Tech thought they were a team that would contend for the National Title. After two poor losses to G-Tech and then last week against UNC even an ACC title is quite slim. It is nearly impossible for any HC to turn this emotional avalanche around and I strongly believe that V-tech will be flat again tonight. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 1999. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and is a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games and now playing a conference member with a winning record. East Carolina HC Holtz is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Take East Carolina.
Tom Freese
New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Under
New York is 9-2 UNDER their 11 road games and they are 13-6-3 UNDER off loss by 3 or more goals. The Rangers are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 games overall and they are 4-0 UNDER when playing with one day of rest. Edmonton is 16-7-2 UNDER vs. an opponent that scored 2 goals or less in their last game and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games overall. The Oilers are 4-0 UNDER vs. Atlantic Division teams and they are 3-0-2 UNDER their last 5 meetings at home vs. the Rangers. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Dave Price
1 Unit on Miami Ohio +17.5
The Redhawks are just 1-4 over their last 5 games but they are 4-1 ATS in those contests. The large majority of the betting public is on Temple and that has me feeling even better about our side. It's going to be hard for the Owls to get up for the 1-8 RedHawks after a big upset road win over Navy. Meanwhile, the RedHawks will be playing with momentum for the first time all season, receiving a huge confidence boost from their first win of the season last week. Here's the key: Miami Ohio is on a 16-5 ATS run when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). I'll take the RedHawks and the points for 1 Unit.
Glenn McGrew
Spurs at Jazz
San Antonio is not the powerhouse defensive team of years past, sitting at 2-1 over the total on the young season. Their defense has been good enough, but not great. Utah is a young, athletic team that loves to push the tempo under electric guard Deron Williams. They are 3-1 over the total with a terrific offense, but the defense has been a problem. They allowed 44 points in the fourth quarter alone of the last game, a tough loss at Dallas. Play the Spurs/Jazz Over the total.
Yankee Capper
Northern Illinois -21
Miami-OH +17.5
Pittsburgh Penguins +110
King Creole
CLE / CHI Under 191.5
Cavalier division home games have been money in the bank for UNDER players recently. In the last 5 years, Cleveland home games are 4-16 O/U when facing division opponents… and the OU line is LESS than 190 point. If playing off an "Under" result in their last game, the numbers improve to 2-10 O/U.
Cavs have put the hammer down on DEFENSE thus far in 2009. After going Over in Game One, they've now gone 0-4 o/U in their last 4. They just held explosive Washington to 90 points in their last game.. .and are allowing only 83.0 PPG in their last three. Meanwhile, the Bulls come in having yet to shoot higher than 42% in any game this year.
Running a query in our NBA database for Thursday night NATIONAL TV action provides us with some more OU 'ammo'. 3-14 O/U since 2001: All THURSDAY night Eastern Conference home favorites of > 4 points (Cavs)… with a fairly low OU line (193 6 points (Cavs) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in that same time span.
Stephen Nover
San Antonio at Utah
Things are not well right now with the Jazz. Their defense remains bad, Carlos Boozer is shooting 35 percent from the floor and depth is lacking with Kyle Korver and C.J. Miles out.
These have all factored in Utah opening 1-3 straight-up and against the spread, its worst start in seven seasons.
The Jazz blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead in their last game, a 96-85 road loss to the Mavericks. Dirk Nowitzki scored a mind-boggling 29 points in the fourth quarter.
Maybe Jerry Sloan gets things turned around, but until there's tangible evidence of that I'm going to be looking to fade the Jazz.
Utah is playing for the third time in four days. San Antonio has been idle since Saturday. Few if any coaches are better than San Antonio's Gregg Popovich in game-planning with extra days to prepare. The rest keeps Tim Duncan and other San Antonio veterans fresh for this matchup.
This is the game the Spurs want because they have a more difficult road matchup on Friday night against Portland.
San Antonio has won 29 of the past 35 times against Utah, including winning and covering in the last four meetings. Utah is overrated at home, covering just four of its last 14 home contests. The Jazz also are 5-16 against the spread the past 21 times they've face a team with a winning mark.
The Jazz haven't been good as an underdog either going 5-18 against the spread the past 23 times in that role.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Rocketman
Nashville @ Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim -165
Anaheim is 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS at home vs Nashville since 1996. Predators are 4-10 in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Predators are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Ducks are 5-2 in their last 7 Thursday games. Ducks are 11-5 in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. Favorite is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. Home team is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings. Predators are 4-16 in the last 20 meetings in Anaheim. We'll recommend a small play on Anaheim tonight!
Brian Graves
Nashville vs. Anaheim
Pick: Anaheim -160
The Ducks have been a disappointment so far this year, but they played and excellent game in a 4-3 loss to the Penguins on Tuesday and I expect them to build off that game and win easily tonight against the Preds. Corey Perry has been the one constant for the Ducks and he'll have another big game tonight as Anaheim wins 5-2!
Triple Threat Sports
Va Tech at East Carolina
Pick: ECU (+)
Pirates have matched up well against the Hokies of late and are catching a big number here, and while they have lost by double digits to both BCS teams they have faced, both were on the road and this one is at home on national TV. Also, note that Hokies are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS away from Blacksburg this season. Take the points in this one.