Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, November 7

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

BAYLOR -14.5 over Oklahoma: I will be going with the Baylor Bears in this one. Pretty much this team has a very slim shot at a BCS Title game, but if they want to keep that slim hope alive they will need to win this one big. This will be the best defense that the Bears will have faced this year, but still Oklahoma did allow 30 points to Texas tech and 36 to Texas, so they can struggle vs good offenses and they bears d have one, especially at home, where they have averaged 768.6 ypg and 70.6 ppg this year. The Oklahoma Offense has been inconsistent this year as they have averaged 31 ppg overall, but have also scored 20 points or less in 3 of their games and this Baylor defense is no slouch, especially at home where they have allowed just 292 ypg and 14.4 ppg on the year. Baylor has a ton to play for and are seeking revenge for last years loss. They need to win this game big and have the edges on both sides of the ball, plus the home field edge. I see them winning this one by 24 or more points.

1 UNIT PLAY

UL Lafayette/ Troy Over 67: Troy can score a bunch as they have averaged 34.4 ppg, but their defense has just been awful this year ranking 111th overall, while allowing 34.6 ppg. The ULL offense has been on fire during their 6 game win streak as they have averaged 43.7 ppg over that stretch, plus they have averaged 557 ypg and 57 ppg at home this year. They should be good for at least 42 in this one, while the Trojans should put up at least 30 of their own. This one should be played in the 70's.

Jim Feist

Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Play: Oklahoma +15

The Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. They are a big dog to Baylor, but the Sooners are 4-1 in the conference and have great balance on offense, along with a powerhouse defense: Oklahoma is 14th in the nation allowing 18.8 ppg. This is their third game against a Top 25 team and they are 2-0 in the others, beating Notre Dame on the road and Texas Tech two weeks ago. Baylor has played a super-easy schedule and gave up 42 points to West Virginia. The road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings and the Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Baylor. Play Oklahoma.

Dave Mathews

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins -2.5

This is a huge game for Washington. They are coming off an overtime win over San Diego and now must face a 1-7 Minnesota team that is playing for pride. The good news for Washington is that Christian Ponder is back at quarterback. One of his best weapons-TE Kyle Rudolph-is out for a month with a fractured foot. Washington will load the box against Adrian Peterson and force Ponder to beat them. Minnesota allows 292 yards through the air, which is good news for Robert Griffin III, who threw for nearly 300 yards last week and appears to be hitting his stride. That's bad news for the Vikings.

Doug Upstone

Vancouver Canucks vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks -168

San Jose played unfocused hockey verses league worst Buffalo on Tuesday night. Look for a determined school of Sharks Thursday in the Tank. San Jose hasn't lost a regulation game at home this season and should continue. Price is right to back the home team here.

Matt Fargo

Dallas Stars vs. Detroit Red Wings
Play: Detroit Red Wings -147

We are laying a rather large number on Detroit here but I think it is well within reason and could even be higher for that matter. Taking a look at what Detroit has been favored by in the past at home in this series will also give you an indication of the value here. The Red Wings are coming off a four-game roadtrip where they went a solid 3-1 and that last defeat came in the series finale at Winnipeg on Monday. Detroit has had a good amount of time to rest up and it will be anxious to bounce back from that loss as well as get back to winning at home where it has lost three straight games, two of which came in extra time. The Red Wings were 3-1 at home prior to that. Dallas meanwhile has won two straight games, both coming in a shootout including a big win at Boston on Tuesday. The Stars have now won three of four on the road after a 1-4 start so that is also playing into this number as well. Dallas is just 6-12 in its last 18 games following two consecutive wins that went into overtime while going 2-8 in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Red Wings have won six of the last seven meetings in this series and I expect a big effort from them in stopping the home bleeding.

Jack Jones

Baylor Bears -15

The Baylor Bears have just been destroying teams this season en route to a 7-0 start. That has especially been the case at home, but their smallest margin of victory came by 10 points at Kansas State on October 12. Their other six wins have all come by 31 or more points.

Baylor is scoring 63.9 points and averaging 718.0 yards per game to rank 1st in the country in total offense. Both quarterback Bryce Petty and running back Lache Seastrunk have entered the Heisman Trophy race. Petty is completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 2,463 yards with 18 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for six scores. Seastrunk has rushed for 869 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 9.1 per carry.

What may be most impressive about this Baylor team is how improved they are on the other side of the ball. They are allowing just 15.9 points and 316.0 yards per game to rank 11th in the country in total defense. Oklahoma only managed 20 points in games against both Texas and TCU, and 16 points against West Virginia in three of its Big 12 games this season. It won't be able to match the Bears score for score with that kind of offensive performance tonight.

Baylor is 6-0 ATS against good offensive teams that average 425 or more total yards per game over the last two seasons. Baylor is 7-0 against the number as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992. The Bears are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Baylor is 9-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Bet Baylor Thursday.

Ray Monohan

Washington Redskins vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Washington Redskins -1-120

The Minnesota Vikings are getting way too much respect in this one. Sure they are at home but this team has just one win this season and has shown little to think that improvement is around the corner. Washington has won two of its last three and have to be invigorated by the fact that they are still alive in the NFC East. QB Robert Griffin is looking better and better each week two which is a very good sign. Take the Skins on the road in this one as a short favorite.

Rob Vinciletti

Vancouver Canucks vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks -168

San Jose comes in to this one having lost 3 straight and their last 2 here on home ice. They have won 5 of 7 after scoring 4 or more goals which they did in their hideous loss here to league door mat Buffalo Sabres as a favorite of over 4-1. Vancouver comes in this this game slumping as well and things don't figure to get much easier as they have already lost a pair of 4-1 decisions to San Jose this season and have not lost 9 straight in the series. Look for the Sharks to take another from Vancouver.

Red Dog Sports

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +13½

Houston is back home playing their third game in 4 nights after playing on the road and just winning in Portland. Harden, Lin, Howard, Parsons, Asik and Beverly are key Rockets but they are not real deep. The Lakers have been beaten badly on the road but are off a loss at Dallas on Tuesday so they had a day off to rest and prepare for a game against Dwight Howard and company.

Steve Nash, Steve Blake, Xavier Henry, Pao Gasol, Nick Young, Jordan Farmar, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Hill and Chris Kaman will need to step up. The Rockets should win ahigh scoring game but I think we see the Lakers cover.

EZWINNERS

10 Point Teaser: Redskins +8, Colts +1 & Bucs +12.5

The Skins are starting to get their act together. Washington has been able to run the ball and RGIII is also not only making plays in the passing game, but also making plays with his legs once again. The Redskins defense is the group that was most concerning, but they also look like they have turned the corner after making a goal line stand against the Chargers to force overtime. Minnesota put up a fight in Dallas last week, but the Cowboys are never a good gage of how well a team is really playing. Minnesota's offense is still a work in progress and their defense just can't get of the field on first down. I like backing Washington in this spot getting more than a touchdown for the first leg of the three team ten point teaser.

Oklahoma Sooners +15

I really love the Baylor Bears and would love to see them beat Stoops and company, but a more than two touchdown favorite against the Sooners i don't see. Baylor is putting up 64 points per game, but they have only played two teams with winning records this season (Buffalo and K-State) and K-State held the Bears to a season low 35 points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning twenty out of the last twenty one meetings and this is the first time that Baylor has been favored in any of them. The Sooners have the running backs and a physical quarterback that can run the ball in Blake Bell to help control the clock and keep the Baylor offense on the sidelines. Take the points.

Stanford Cardinals +10.5

There are not many people who are giving Stanford much of a chance to knock off the Ducks two years in a row, but this one should be close all the way. The Stanford defense has shut down quarterback Brett Hundley and UCLA (10 points) and quarterback Sean Mannion and Oregon State (12 points) in back to back victories. Stanford has also forced a turnover in 33 straight games which is the second longest streak in the country. The Cardinals defense will also get a boost with the return of defensive end Henry Anderson who has been out since mid September. A home underdog with the better defense on a Thursday night. I'll bite and take the points.

Dave Cokin

Atlanta at Denver
Play: Atlanta

’ll usually try to come up with some kind of actual data to support my opinions. I think that’s a reasonable procedure for anyone betting games. Numbers don’t always tell the entire story, but more often than not they’re excellent barometers, particularly if you’re focusing on the ones that mean the most. Opinions, meanwhile are like…well, you know the rest of that axiom that ends with everybody’s got one.

But tonight I’m going strictly on the eye test for a play on the Hawks-Nuggets NBA hookup. I can’t say what Denver will look like at the end of the season, or for that matter, even two weeks from now. But it’s pretty clear from viewing them in action that the new scheme is not exactly paying dividends just yet.

George Karl might not have been much come playoff time, and that’s clearly why the Nuggets have a new head coach in Brian Shaw. The long time player and subsequent assistant is very highly regarded amongst his peers, and I’m absolutely not crushing his philosophy here. Fact is, Karl won in the regular season but not when it counted. Maybe it was indeed time for a change.

But what’s also clear is that at least for the time being, the Nuggets are having difficulty acclimating themselves to Shaw’s half court style of play. Personally, I always liked the idea of the Nuggets utilizing the altitude in Denver to their advantage as they tried to run the opposition into the ground. They’re not going to do that playing this style, at least in my view.

So I’m basically in fade Denver mode right now. That doesn’t mean I’m going to play against them every night, but if the number isn’t an obstacle, it’s going to be a consideration until I see some evidence they’re figuring things out.

The Hawks aren’t a team that I’m going to call reliable. They miss way too many free throws and they haven’t exactly been glass cleaners out of the gate, either. The 2-2 start could be a true harbinger of things to come. If ever a team looked like it’s strictly middle of the pack material, it’s these guys.

Down the road, if the Nuggets get it together under Shaw, tonight’s line might actually be on the cheap side. But at least for the time being, I’ve got to take my chances getting points with what as of right now looks like the better entry. That means a play on the Hawks plus the points tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

San Jose Sharks -168

Neither of these teams has played well recently. The Canucks have lost two of their last three games, and I think the advantage has to be with San Jose for today's matchup. The Sharks will have home ice advantage and have won nine consecutive games against the visiting Canucks.

Vancouver is 2-9 in their last 11 games against Pacific division opponents. They face a Sharks team that is 9-2 in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Sharks are also 21-7 in their last 28 games when playing on one day of rest and 46-19 in their last 65 home games. The Canucks have struggled against good teams, posting a 4-9 record, and that is a trend that will continue today.

SPORTS WAGERS

HOUSTON -13 over L.A. Lakers

The Lakers have played two road games. They lost in Golden State by 29 and followed that up with a 19-point road loss in Dallas. Mike D'Antoni has the Lakers playing his gunning way by launching triples, spacing the floor and playing up-tempo basketball. That’ll work and has worked at home in two games but this is a hodgepodge Lakers roster that is going to get buried on many nights and the Rockets will show no mercy here.

Things are going exactly as planned in Houston. James Harden looks like the best shooting guard in the league. Dwight Howard is playing with a gigantic chip on his gigantic shoulders and rebounding everything in sight (career-high-tying 26 on opening night); and the Rockets are getting contributions not only from the likes of Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons but also Francisco Garcia, who has made 14-of-28 three-pointers. Every player on this Rockets’ team knows precisely what Howard is feeling. No words need be spoken. Howard wants to stick it to this team so badly that it hurts. The guy is going to be a maniac out there tonight with more focus and determination than he’s had in a long time. Howard hates the Lakers, he hates D’Antoni and every one of his teammates knows how important this game is it too him. Only a 15 to 30 point win will satisfy Howard and the Rockets and it says here they will get it.

Minnesota -½ +150 over WASHINGTON

Regulation only. A tie loses. This is either an alternative puck line wager or a three-way betting line wager and can be found at every book. We played against the Capitals on Tuesday upon their return home from a five-game trip and it didn’t work out well, as they defeated the Islanders 6-2. If a team isn’t flat in their first game back from a trip, they are often flat in the second game back. The Caps have now won three straight and have scored 16 goals over that stretch. However, this isn’t Philly, Florida or the Islanders with Evgeni Nabokov. That’s the three teams the Caps defeated but things get a whole lot tougher here.

The Wild have also won three straight and have scored four goals or more in all three. They’ve also won five of six with only loss occurring against the Blackhawks. Two days prior to that loss, they defeated the Blackhawks 5-3. There is no shame in splitting two games with Chicago. The Wild have an Eastern Conference-heavy schedule coming up, with eight of their next 11 against teams from the East and it all begins here. The Wild are well aware of this important stretch that could see them shoot up the West standings, as the West has dominated the East in the first 5½ weeks of the season. Minnesota is in peak form right now and they figure to be sharp again in this favorable spot.

Florida +237 over BOSTON

OT included. We have no interest in the Bruins right now and we especially have no interest in them laying 2½-1 in a game they may show up in body only. The Bruins have played a ton of big games over the past three years but this season they have taken some nights off. This is another one of those games in which Boston may just show up. One shootout victory and one shootout loss is all the Bruins have to show for their last five games and it's getting harder to produce consistent results with only one line producing offensively. Boston is not in good form right now. With a game in Toronto on deck Saturday on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, the Bruins could be caught sleepwalking through this game.

The Florida Panthers may be the least followed or least watched team in the NHL. They play to a ¾ empty arena on most nights and they have just one win over their past 10 games. So what is there to like about them? Well, for starters, five of the Panthers past seven games have gone to OT so any or all of those could have been wins instead of losses. They took Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Chicago to OT before falling in OT to Washington and Edmonton over their past two games. It’s not showing up in the win column yet but the Panthers are getting progressively better each week. They have a plethora of young talent that plays with energy and enthusiasm. The Panthers are not demoralized in any way. They are having fun out there and they appreciate where they are playing and the group that the organization has assembled. The Panthers are not pushovers and as a huge pooch they are going to offer value on many nights this season. This is one of those nights.

N.Y. Rangers +119 over COLUMBUS

OT included. After traveling extensively for well over a month (including the preseason) we highly doubt a back-to-back scenario is going to bother the Rangers. After a rough start, the Rangers look as sharp as anyone right now. They blew away the Penguins last night 5-1. New York has now won four of five with only loss over that span occurring against the red-hot Ducks. The Rangers have not allowed more than two goals against in eight straight games and that should bode well here against the offensively challenged Blue Jackets.

The Jackets were projected to be relevant this season but their losing ways have once again become contagious. Columbus is coming off back-to-back losses to the Penguins followed by a 4-1 loss to the then struggling Senators. In last weekend’s home and home series with Pittsburgh, Columbus scored two goals combined. Over their last three games, they have scored three goals. Bob Bobrovsky’s even-strength save percentage actually shows that his season last year was good-but-not-great. As it turns out, Bobrovsky has gone back to being the below average goaltender he’s always been. The most overrated player in the league, Jack Johnson (-8 this year), has ensured that Bobrovsky will not shine. Marian Gaborik is in the process of giving up the other half-step off his speed of old (to make it a full step), and after that we’re turning where for offense? R.J. Umberger? Ryan Callahan? Further down the depth chart to Jared Boll or Blake Comeau? This team had jacked expectations so far beyond reality that it’s almost laughable. The Jackets have less talent than any team in the NHL and should not be favored over the surging Rangers.

Pass NFL & NCAAF

Sean Murphy

L.A. Clippers vs. Miami
Pick: Miami

I'm just not convinced the Clippers are ready for primetime just yet.

Last night's ugly loss in Orlando was evidence of that.

All most bettors can remember is their 137-point effort against the Rockets earlier this week, or perhaps their double-digit win over the Warriors one week ago tonight.

How quickly everyone forgets that this is a team that got beat down by the Lakers on opening night.

The Heat haven't exactly been dominant in the early going, but they've been good enough to post a winning record through five games, and there's little question, they're only going to get better.

Tuesday's win in Toronto was more impressive than it looked on paper, as the Heat were without Chris Bosh, who was back home with his wife for the birth of their daughter. He's expected to be back in the lineup on Thursday. Note that the Heat were without Bosh for their matchup with the Clippers here at home last season, but still won by 22 points.

The home team has simply owned this series, winning and covering the spread in each of the last nine meetings. Perhaps the next matchup between these two in February will play out a little differently, but tonight, I look for the Heat to have the upper hand.