Bruce Marshall
Vancouver vs. San Jose
Pick: San Jose -1.5
This has been a one-sided series lately favoring San Jose, which shoots for its tenth straight win over Vancouver tonight at the Shark Tank. Included in the recent series domination is a sweep in last spring's playoffs as well as a pair of 4-1 wins earlier this season. The Sharks could use a boost after three straight defeats, but expect an ultra-focused effort tonight after the shock 5-4 home loss to the Sabres on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Vancouver ranks near the bottom of the league having converted just 10.9 percent of its power-play chances. Edge in goal perhaps to San Jose as well, as the Canucks' Roberto Luongo has a 3.21 GAA while losing his last four starts against the Sharks, who likely will counter with Antti Niemi, who has a 1.60 GAA while starting each game during San Jose's winning streak against Vancouver.
Mike O'Connor
MINNESOTA (+2.5) 26 Washington 25
The Vikings come into this game after blowing a late lead to the Cowboys last week and eventually losing the game 23-27. They outgained Dallas with 393 yards at 5.8 yppl to 350 yards at 5.6 yppl and dominating in the rushing game (169 yards at 5.8 ypc to 36 yards at 4.0 ypc for the Cowboys). That is usually a strong indicator of point spread success and that was the case here as well as the Vikings easily covered the number. Adjusted season numbers show the Vikings to be a team with a good rushing offense and a poor pass offense (5.47 yps to teams that allow 6.34 yps). Defensively, they are a bit below average overall with a pass defense that has not been good and should continue to struggle with multiple injuries in the defensive backfield. The Redskins were fortunate to win last week as the Chargers had several chances to win the game with a first and goal at the Redskins 1 yard line with time running out but couldn’t punch it in. The Redskins went on to win 30-24 in OT. Season numbers show the Redskins to be an about average team from the line of scrimmage and after staring 0-3 they have crept back into the equation in the soft NFC East winning 3 of their last 5. They are in a tough spot here as they travel on a short week to Minnesota after winning an OT game at home and with division rival Philadelphia on deck. They also have not been good away this year (1-3) where they have faced tough competition (Green Bay, Oakland, Dallas and Denver) but this is a step down in class. The Vikings are also really banged up at the moment with injuries all along their offensive line and secondary (two key areas) and now are dealing with players questioning coaches and some rumblings of internal strife. This game is really a toss-up to me but I will lean with the Vikings based on a match-up indicator that I use, the short travel week and maybe a flat spot for the Redskins as they look ahead to the Eagles.
LT Profits
Oregon vs Stanford
Pick: Oregon -10
There is a Thursday night treat for college football fans with undoubtedly the Pac-12 Game of the Year taking place with the Oregon Ducks visiting the Stanford Cardinal. Now normally, it would be difficult to resist a great team like Stanford that is 7-1 and ranked fifth on the BCS Standings as a double-digit home underdog. However, these are not normal circumstances as the Ducks have not forgotten when happened last season when the Cardinal handed them their only loss in Oregon costing them a spot in the BCS Championship Game. Furthermore, 8-0 Oregon dropped from the coveted second spot to third behind Florida State after not playing on Saturday while the Noles blew out Miami, so the Ducks will not hesitate to run up the score. And they certainly can, averaging 55.6 points and 632.2 yards per game! Oregon is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games overall.
L.A. Lakers vs Houston
Pick: Lakers +13.5
In Dwight Howard’s first game vs. his former team the 4-1 Houston Rockets host the 2-3 Los Angeles Lakers, and while Houston appears to have the edge, this still seems like a big spread vs. a Laker team that is 3-2 ATS, as besides its two covering wins, the Lake Show covered in a six-point loss to the Spurs. While no Laker starter scored more than 10 points in an ugly 123-104 loss at Dallas Tuesday, they may have been looking ahead and are quite capable of a bounce-back effort. The Rockets come off of a 116-101 win at Portland on Tuesday the night after getting blown out by the other LA team the Clippers, but none of their previous three wins would have covered this spread and Houston is still allowing 103.8 points per game despite Howard’s presence. The Rockets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.
Dave Price
Oklahoma/Baylor Over 73
Oklahoma has a top-notch defense, but history suggests that defense won't be enough to keep this one under the total. Consider that playing the over when the total greater than or equal to 63 with an excellent offensive team that averages 34.0 ppg or more against a good defensive team that allows 16.0-21.0 ppg, provided it is a conference game taking place 7 games or more into the season, has produced a 26-6 mark the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average of 78.1 total points scored in this situation. You also want to take the over when the total is greater than or equal to 70 in a conference game taking place 7 games or more into the season between very good teams that outscore the opposition by 10.0 ppg or more. That's because doing so has produced a 32-8 record the last 10 seasons. We've seen 81.5 total points scored on average in this situation. We've seen combined scores of 77, 83 and 76 the last three times these schools have met. Take the over.
Steve Janus
Clippers/Heat Over 208
I'm not huge on playing the OVER on TNT Thursday night games, but I believe oddsmakers came out with an extremely high total to try and get action on the UNDER. The total opened at 211.5 and has quickly dropped to 208. It appears oddsmakers have got what they hoped for, as I'm showing close to 60% of the bets coming in on the UNDER.
Both of last year's meeting between these two teams finished below 207 points and each had a total set below 200 points. While that could be a sign to take the UNDER, you have to take into consideration that both of these teams have improved over the offseason.
You also have to keep in mind the Clippers have been very poor defensively this season. They are allowing opponents to shoot 48.3% from the field. Miami comes into this game shooting 52.6% from the field and a sizzling 44.4% from behind the arc. When the Heat are interested and you have to believe they will be against the Clippers, their offense typically shines. The Heat have had their ups and downs defensively and you have to remember they are very weak inside. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan should have a field day in the paint. Both teams also love to push the pace an attack in transition, which should create a lot of easy points.
Brandon Shively
Troy vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Play: Over 67
We are seeing a posted total of 67 for this game for a good reason. Troy does not like to play defense as they are giving up 34 ppg, while averaging 34 ppg on offense. Troy is led by senior quarterback Corey Robinson who has a trio of speedy receivers who can make defenders miss in the open field. Louisiana is led by Houston transfer quarterback Terrance Broadway who has a 64% completion rate on the season with big 6'4" WR Jamal Robinson as his go-to-man along with workhorse Alonzo Harris coming out of the backfield. Both offense's are dynamic and will be marching up and down the field tonight. Both teams are ranked in the top 25 in the nation in number of 3rd down conversions per game, which further tells me that the chains should keep moving tonight and the scoreboard will be lighting up.
Troy has scored 30+ points in 8 of 9 games this season and the OVER is 8-1 overall in Troy games. Louisiana has played only 2 home games vs. Division I opponents this season, but they have scored 49 and 48 points respectively in these games. Look for this one to finish 9-14 points higher than the posted total of 67 tonight.
Trends:
Over is 14-2 in Trojans last 16 games overall.
Over is 12-4 in Trojans last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 6-0-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 7 home games.
Over is 6-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Brady Kannon
Redskins / Vikings Over 48
A match up between two below average teams that have played relatively difficult schedules, meaning they should see some success tonight against a lessor opponent. The Vikings gave The Cowboys a good run last week, a team with a very poor defense and they meet up again here tonight vs. Washington, another team with a poor defense. On the flip side, The Redskins have a very good offensive unit and they too will likely feed off of a very weak Minnesota defense. Looking further, the weakest aspect of these defenses is against the pass and if each coach is going to game plan to attack that weak spot, going through the air will slow the game down, giving us more opportunities for points. Both teams run the ball well too with Peterson & Morris, so this approach ought to yield some points as well. Christian Ponder is now in his 3rd game back with the team and is showing signs of improvement each week in moving the offense. As for the situation, the last 5-Vikings home games have gone Over the total and the last 4-times these two teams have met, the Over is 3-and-1. The numbers pan out and so does the situation. Points a plenty in Minneapolis tonight under the Thursday Night Lights.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Minnesota/ Washington Over 49: The Vikings defense has been atrocious this year, especially at home where they have allowed 36.7 ppg and 413 total ypg on the year. Overall Minnesota has allowed 31.5 ppg and this Washington offense is starting to get it going, as they have put up 32 ppg in their last 3 games. Overall the Skins are 5th in total offense putting up 407.6 ypg, while ranking 12th in scoring at 25.4 ppg. Defensively the Skins have been bad all year, as they rank 30th n total defense (398.8 ypg), 28th vs the pass (282.1 ypg) and 31st in points allowed (31.6 ppg). That defense has been even worse since their bye week, allowing 35.3 ppg in their 4 games post bye. Now they take on a resurgent Minnesota offense that has looked good the last 2 weeks, putting up 54 total points. Ponder does make this offense better and the benching in favor of Josh Freeman may have woken him up. This game will be on the fast track of Mall Of America Field and with two hot offenses and two poor defenses we should she a game in the mid 50's at least here.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Clippers +4
When not outscoring the Chicago Bulls 31-5 in the first half of the opening game (how good does that look now?), the Heat have been sleep walking through the first 5 games of the NBA schedule at 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS. They may be able to flip the switch against the high-profile Clippers. But LAC was clearly looking forward to this meeting tonight in dropping a 98-90 decision in Orlando. Clippers actually playing better ball right now than the defending champs making them the percentage side as the underdog.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Miami Heat over the defensively struggling Los Angeles Clippers. After the Clips took it on the chin last night in Orlando, now they have to deal with a Miami team that hasn't had any problem finding the basket, and topping 100 points in each of its first five contests, which happens to be a franchise record to start the season.
I could say the same about Los Angeles, which lit up the scoreboard through its first four games, but then it went cold against the Magic last night. The Clippers went 3-for-19 from 3-point range and shot 37.9 percent overall. And the defense has allowed 109.6 points per game over the team's first five contests.
I just don't see this being the right time to take this team into Miami, where the Heat have won four straight in this series.
Take the Heat as your free winner tonight.
1♦ MIAMI
Jeff Benton
Thursday freebie is the Clippers plus the points at Miami.
As expected, Los Angeles got caught peeking ahead last night as the Clippers were blindsided by the Magic in Orlando.
You don't think for one minute LA had tonight's meeting with the defending champion Heat on their minds last night? I sure do, and I think we are going to see a very entertaining affair in South Beach tonight.
The Heat have split their first pair of home games against the spread this season, and while they did win last year's home meeting versus the Clippers by double-digits, Miami is just 2-3 against the spread the last 5 times these teams have faced one another.
Look for Los Angeles to bring their "A"-game to the champs tonight after getting caught asleep in Orlando last night.
Clips plus the points to take the Heat right down to the wire.
1♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Atlanta Hawks over the Denver Nuggets in an early season clash of playoff teams from last year.
Basically, for me, it comes down to the fact I've seen some really good things thus far from the Hawks and I have yet to see many good things in the Denver camp.
True, the Hawks have historically struggled to win in Denver, but like I said, this is a different Hawks team with new leadership and definitely a new Denver team that's on the brink of its worst start in 15 years.
Atlanta mounted a late rally in Los Angeles vs. the Lakers two games ago, but fell up a big short in a 105-103 loss. They followed that up, however, with a 105-100 win over the Sacto Kings the following night on this current west coast road trip.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, are off to an 0-3 start and have to figure out how to stop falling apart in the 4th quarter. In their most recent 102-94 home loss to San Antonio, the Nuggets were leading the game heading to the final 12 minutes, but got outscored 30-16 in the 4th. Ouch.
I understand why the Hawks are getting the points, but I don't think they're going to need them.
Take Atlanta as your free play of the day.
2♦ ATLANTA
Scott Delaney
I really don't care what point anyone has to prove tonight with this game between the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers, this is way too many points for the Rockets to lay to anyone.
Houston hasn't proven anything to me yet, even laying -13 points to the Charlotte Bobcats in the season-opener, and pushing that game with a 96-83 win. So now the Rockets are laying the same number to the Lakers in Houston. So are we to believe the Bobcats and Lakers are the exact same?
I don't think so.
I'm basing this on straight numbers here, as I simply don't believe the Rockets win this game by more than 10, let alone 13. Take the road dog.
2♦ L.A. LAKERS
Brad Wilton
Let's grab the points tonight with Oklahoma as this evening's free play winner.
Things have been way too easy for the Bears this season, especially at home where they seem to average like 80 points per game. I have a feeling that OU will give the Bears a stiff challenge tonight in Waco, as the Sooners were the last team to actually hand Baylor a straight up loss last season in Norman, as the Sooners won that one 42-34.
The key to staying close for the Sooners this evening will be to control the clock, and Oklahoma does have the ground game needed to move the chains and control the clock.
Not saying the Sooners win this one outright, but with the generous double-digits (they have not been a double-digit dog since 2005 season!), I look for OU to keep things within earshot in Waco versus the mighty Bears.
Thriller tonight as Baylor stays unbeaten, but tonight's win does not come easily.
2♦ OKLAHOMA
Brett Atkins
I'm not sure what is wrong with the Denver Nuggets, but last year they were the best home team in the NBA. They lost a mere three games in their own building. Tonight they'll be looking avoid matching that mark just three home games into the seaason.
I know coach Brian Shaw is better than this, and I know he will have his team better prepared after exhibiting frustration with his teams’ effort following Tuesday's 102-94 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
Tonight the Nuggets catch an Atlanta team that will be playing its third road game in five days, during a three-game road trip on the West coast. The Hawks lost to the Lakers on Sunday, defeated the Hawks on Tuesday and finish up the road trip tonight. And playing in Denver is never easy.
Remember, the Nuggets were the highest scoring team in the NBA last season with 106.1 points per game, and they've yet to reach the century mark this season. Tonight could be the night we see them break out. Play the home team here.
2♦ DENVER