Dr Bob
Oregon (-10½) 34 STANFORD 27
Oregon is certainly one of the elite teams in the nation and my ratings have this year’s Ducks rated considerably better than any of the great recent teams under former coach Chip Kelly. Stanford ruined Oregon’s season last year with a 17-14 win in Eugene and the Ducks are likely to get their revenge. However, the situation actually favors Stanford. Oregon applies to a negative 17-61-3 ATS situation that plays against elite teams going on the road against a very good team and Stanford has been tough to beat in Palo Alto in recent years. The Cardinal have gone 34-3 straight up in their last 37 home games and while one of those losses was to Oregon two years ago, Stanford also upset the Ducks as a 7 point dog with a 51-42 win on the Farm in 2009. The Cardinal have generally been good in their home games against other good teams, as they are 11-1-1 ATS at home when not favored by 7 points or more, including 6-0 ATS as a home underdog with 5 of those 6 games being straight up wins (5-0 SU as a home dog of 14 points or less).
Stanford is known for their great defense, and that unit is great once again (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team) but Oregon’s stop unit is just as good, allowing 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. The Ducks’ defense is actually 1.4 yppl better than average with their starters on the field, which is the same rating as Stanford’s defense. The Cardinal will be without one of their best defenders in DE Ben Gardner, but DE Henry Anderson is finally returning to the lineup after missing 6 games and Anderson is nearly as good as Gardner (he had 13 tackles for loss last season to Gardner’s 14.5 TFL).
Offense is where Oregon separates themselves from Stanford and just about every other team in the nation. The Ducks have averaged 54 points per game and over 600 total yards at 7.7 yppl and I rate that unit at 2.4 yppl better than average with quarterback Marcus Mariota in the game. Stanford does have a very good offense, averaging 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team but that’s not really close to as good as the Oregon attack. Overall the math favors Oregon by 9 ½ points, so there is not really much of an edge here based on line value. However, the 17-61-3 ATS situation that applies to Oregon will have me leaning with the Cardinal, who have a recent tradition of playing well in these showdown games. As far as Oregon’s revenge motive is concerned, that is not really a factor. In fact, teams that lost just 1 game the previous season are below 50% ATS against the lone team that beat them the previous year, including 5-18 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 3 points (0-5 ATS after a bye week, so rest makes no difference). If the opponent has a win percentage of .400 or better, the record is just 2-16 ATS for the revenging team. So, if your reason for liking Oregon was revenge then you should come up with another reason. I can really see this one going either way, but the situation favors Stanford.
Wunderdog
Oregon at Stanford
Pick: Stanford +11
This is one of the biggest games of the season as the winner here has life to play for the BCS Title. If there is one team that has been able to slow down the "Quack Attack," it has been Stanford. Two years ago the Cardinal lost to Oregon 53-30, but that final score was very misleading. Stanford committed five turnovers in that game, but held Oregon to 387 total yards at 6.1 yards per play. Last year on the road, Stanford held the Ducks to just 14 points in a huge 17-14 upset, with the Ducks averaging just 5.26 yards per play. Given that Oregon averages 8.1 yards per play, those numbers are very good. The Stanford defense has allowed fewer yards per game this year than the defense from a year ago, while the offense is also a bit better. Stanford is on a 10-1 ATS run vs. unbeaten teams and they are 20-7 ATS under David Shaw following a win. Take the points and play on Stanford in what should be a close game.
OC Dooley
Troy State +14
Most reading this analysis remember exactly one week ago when Troy State in what was a very rare appearance in front of their home fans lost outright by a 49-37 count in a contest where the Trojans were actually cast as a favorite. Due to that poor effort it should come as no shock that the money-line for this particular contest has risen from an opening offshore figure of thirteen points. One of the keys to this selection has to do with FAMILIARITY as this will mark the third time this campaign that Troy State is taking the field on a THURSDAY which has given the coaching staff experience for preparing their troops for weeknight action. More importantly with an upset this evening the Men of Troy also would become BOWL ELIGIBLE which is very big news considering that this school based in the football-crazed state of Alabama has “failed” to qualify for the postseason each of the past two years. Admittedly tonight’s host Louisiana-Lafayette has been the class of the Sun Belt Conference and is armed with a current 6-0 winning tear. But my research indicates that Troy State is ranked way up at #2 in the conference in the critical category of rush DEFENSE as they are holding the opposition to an average of just 136 yards per contest on the ground. Here is an outstanding 83-PERCENT SYSTEM (34-7 the past five years with at least 7 regular season games already played) that goes ON road underdogs like Troy State with a quality offense (5.6 to 6.2 average yards per play gained) going up against an opponent with a shaky defense (5.6 to 6.2 average yards per play permitted). That system favors Troy State who according to their head coach are out to make a “statement” this evening
Harry Bondi
OREGON (-10) over Stanford
Last year, Harry Bondi released Stanford (+20) in a outright stunning upset of the Ducks as our 2012 College Football "Underdog Lock of the Year." Tonight, in the rematch we'll lay the points with Oregon, which is obviously playing with monster revenge. The Ducks have too much firepower for a Stanford offense that has regressed this season. The Cardinal hasn’t scored more than 24 points in any of its last three games, including a 27-21 loss to Utah. Meanwhile, Heisman hopeful Marcus Mariota and the Oregon offense hasn't been held to under 42 points this season will take advantage of a Stanford defense that will be without star defensive end Ben Gardner. Oregon has covered seven out of eight this season, 23 out of its last 34 and is a perfect 11-0 ATS on the road the last three seasons. Lay it!