Scott Delaney
My free winner tonight is out of the NBA, where I'm playing the home underdog Chicago Bulls, catching points from the defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who are laying 2.5 points.
Injured star Derrick Rose is still out, recovering from reconstructive ACL surgery that will have him out until at least after the All-Star break, but the Bulls are playing as if there's nothing wrong with this team whatsoever. Now 3-1 on the young season, the Bulls responded to Saturday's 89-82 home loss to New Orleans with a solid 99-93 win over previously undefeated Orlando on Tuesday.
And even though this is still a team that tends to struggle offensively, without Rose to pace the scoring, the Bulls remain one of the league's top defensive teams, allowing just 88.8 points per game. And that's exactly what we're going to see tonight, as the Bulls will be at their best against an Oklahoma City team that has struggled to figure out whose identity will lead the offense - point guard Russell Westbrook or shooting forward Kevin Durant.
The Thunder look good, and dominating, against weaker competition, I'll give them that. But it's teams like the Bulls that can rattle O-K-C. Look for a strong defensive effort from Chicago as it challenges for the outright win.
3♦ CHICAGO
Chuck O'Brien
Now, for your complimentary play, as I look to make it four in a row after hitting the Golden State Warriors last night, while improving upon a long-term 128-93-3 mark, I'm going to play the Over in the Clippers-Trail Blazers game. That's right, my free winner is the total from the game I have a 20 Dimer, which makes this game even more intriguing if you want to make some easy money.
After last night's rout of the San Antonio Spurs, the Clippers have now gone over in four of their five contests, which should come as no surprise when you look at the fact the they have the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA. Los Angeles is averaging 104.6 points per contest just five games into the season. Last night was the first night the Clips went under, as the Spurs coudn't do much offensively.
Tonight I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting into a shootout with Los Angeles, as they've been off since Monday, when they finished up a three-game road trip through the Southwest, playing in Oklahoma City, Houston and Dallas. In their only home game this season, the Blazers took it to the Los Angeles Lakers, 116-106, on Halloween. Portland isn't too far behind the Clips, as it's ranked eighth in the league with its 98.5 points per game average.
Defensively speaking, the Blazers are allowing 102.7 points per game (fifth-worst in the NBA) while the Clippers are yielding 98.6 points per contest (13th-worst in the league).
Looking at the trends for these teams, the over is certainly at an advantage, as it comes in on winning runs of 4-0 after a Clippers in both SU and ATS, 5-2 when they take on a Northwest Division foe and 5-1 overall. With the Blazers, the over is on winning runs of 4-1 against Pacific Division teams and 7-3 at home. The over is also on a 10-1 run when these two meet in the city of Roses.
2♦ OVER Clippers-Blazers
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Thunder as the road favorite over the Bulls.
Chicago has done a credible job starting the season with Mr. Rose, as the Bulls have won three of four to start the season. I say tonight is a struggle spot for Chicago, as the kings of the West - Oklahoma City pay a weeknight visit.
OKC is still adjusting to their rotation now that James Harden is in a Houston uniform, but they did look solid their last time out with the home win and cover over Toronto.
Granted, Chicago is a step up the competition ladder, but Oklahoma City does own straight up wins over the Bulls in four of the last seven meetings, and the Thunder is a positive 8-3 against the spread their last 11 visits to the Windy City.
Go with the Thunder to take care of business tonight against the Rose-less Bulls.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Chris Jordan
Now, let's talk about my complimentary winner for tonight, as I look to win my fourth-straight freebie and improve on this 12-5 run with comp releases. I'm going to take a look at the total in the added college football game, Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas State, since I really love the Over in this Sun Belt Conference showdown in Jonesboro, Arkansas.
This is tailor-made for a shootout tonight, especially with both of them sitting in a three-way tie atop the Sun Belt Conference with a 4-1 league mark, along with Middle Tennessee State.
We're talking about two of the more impressive offenses in the league, as Monroe ranks No. 1 with scoring offense, while Arkansas State is third-best in the Sun Belt in scoring. Overall, Arkansas State has the No. 2 offense and the Warhawks have the third-ranked offense. Louisiana Monroe has scored less than 31 points just twice over its nine games; similarly, the Red Wolves have scored less than 33 points two times in their nine games.
Tossing out those two lower-scoring games for both teams, they both are averaging 40 points per game. With this one being televised on ESPNU, you best believe they'll be out to put on a show for several bowl game committees, looking to show what an exciting brand of football they could bring to the postseason.
Checking a sampling of the betting trends with this total, the Warhawks roll in on over runs of 9-0 on turf, 5-1 after losing on the field, 4-1 after losing at the books, 21-7 against winning teams and 7-2 overall. Arkansas State, meanwhile, has gone over in two of its last three games.
Play this one high, as these rivals are going into the 60s.
5♦ OVER UL Monroe/Arkansas St
Matt Rivers
My Thursday night comp play is the Under in tonight's Colts-Jags AFC South battle.
Second go-round for these two teams, and the first meeting in Indy did stay Under the total to make it three straight series meetings having held low.
Indianapolis has been playing them on the low-side of late, as each of their last three games, and five of their last seven have stayed Under the posted price.
As for Jacksonville, the Jaguars have been held to 15 points or less in five of their last seven games, and the Under has cashed in in four of those seven - including the first meeting with the Colts.
I think this game is going to be a ball control type of a game, and I do not see a whole lot of scoring going on.
Make it four straight series Unders for the Colts and Jaguars.
2♦ INDIANAPOLIS-JACKSONVILLE UNDER
OC Dooley
Virginia Tech +13.5
It is easy to see why Florida State has been cast as a prohibitive favorite this evening even though host Virginia Tech has won seven of the most recent eight games played in front their own fans. The Seminoles are the only squad with a Top-10 ranking in ten national categories and the only school with a top-eight ranking in both total offense and total defense. A suffocating Seminoles stop-unit has held the opposition to a grand total of 60 different “three and out” possessions which is tops in Division I-A. On the flipside the entire country in an ESPN Thursday telecast last week saw Virginia Tech lose a 30-12 final verdict on the road at Miami. However it is worth mentioning that the contest was not that one-sided considering that the Hokies WON the statistics in four different categories (first downs, third down efficiency, totals yards, time of possession). It was a few weeks ago in a nationally televised Saturday telecast when Georgia’s defense responded to criticism by one of their players in what resulted in an outright upset versus Florida. Earlier this week Virginia Tech wide receiver Marcus Davis was also vocal calling out his team for a lack of leadership. A Washington Post interview quotes Davis as saying that the Hokies do not quote “have the same attitude as we used to have” which in my opinion should fire up the troops. The last time these two schools met was in the 2010 ACC Conference championship game which was won by the Hokies whose offense responded in a 44-33 spread triumph. I am aware that Virginia Tech is 1-4 straight up in the past five games and has their worst record this deep into the season since way back in 1992. But dating back to that 1992 campaign Virginia Tech has always responded where it counts (15-5 ATS) when shaking off consecutive losses in part due to a veteran coaching staff that does not hit the panic button
ASA
Colts / Jaguars Under 43
Last weekend the Colts got a huge 23-20 emotional win over the Dolphins at home with rookie QB Andrew Luck putting up some monster numbers of 30/48 for 433 yards passing and 2 TD's. Jacksonville was at home getting thumped by the Lions 31-14 and both of their scores came in the 4th quarter when the Lions D had called quits. Jacksonville managed just 279 total yards against Detroit which isn't a big surprise as they have the worst offense in the NFL. The Jags averaged just 14.6 ppg overall (32nd in NFL) and only 8.5 ppg (worst) at home. Jacksonville is 0-4 SU at home this year and have been outscored by a combined 34-126 margin (40 total ppg). We could go on and on about how bad the Jags offense but we think you get the picture. What you probably don't know is this. The Colts with Luck have become a public team and they've moved the chains on offense but it hasn't translated to points. Indianapolis averages just 5.5 yards per play which is below average (19th in NFL) and just 19.7 yards per point which is 29th in the NFL. On the road this year the Colts are averaging just 16.3 ppg for the season. In their last four games overall the Colts have managed 9, 17, 19 and 20 points. Two weeks ago they put up 19 points against the Titans but that was with 6 of them coming in OT. The last three meetings between these two teams have resulted with 39, 32 and 20 total points. In the first clash this year they managed 39-points and that was with Jacksonville scoring an 80 yard TD in the final minute of the game. Any way we cut it this game comes up an UNDER bet!