Brass Balls Picks
FREE PICK RECORD BEGINNING 9/1/13 = 28 - 12
Lost last two picks
10/10/13 PICK: GOTTA TRY THE GIANTS AT + 7
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Arizona/ USC Under 48: The Trojans offense won't correct itself right away and I look for more defensive intensity from them after their melt down last week. The Trojans defense has been very tough at home, allowing just 230.3 ypg and 10.3 ppg, with their 3 home games averaging just 30 ppg so far. The Arizona defense has been tough overall, allowing just 14.3 ppg overall and 22 ppg on the road and they should be able to clamp down on a USC offense that is weak as it is and could be without WR Lee. Arizona runs the ball 66.9% of the time, while the Trojans take to the ground 64.9% of the time. All that running should keep this clock running and the defense's will do the rest to keep the scoring down. Defensive battle in LA tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Rutgers +19 over LOUISVILLE: I like that Louisville is one of the most complete teams in the nation, but they also haven't really faced anyone either. I know that Rutgers isn't a top notch club but they are better than any team Louisville has faced yet. The Rutgers offense has really surprised this year, putting up 40 ppg and they will pose a tough test for a Louisville secondary that just hasn't been challenged yet. On defense the Knights are one of the best vs the run and Louisville does need the run to make their passing game go. Still Louisville will get their points, but I feel that Rutgers can put up points with them as well, while their defense will make that crucial 1 or two stops that will keep this game within 2 Tds.
Nick Parsons
San Jose vs. Vancouver
Pick: Vancouver
On Tuesday I gave out a free play on the +125 Colorado Avalanche over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Today I'll look at another "dog" that I believe offers fantastic value.
Vancouver opened as a -120 favorite, but bettors have been quick to jump on San Jose after it moved to 3-0 with its 9-2 beatdown victory over the Rangers on Tuesday.
Vancouver's only loss of the season was a 4-1 setback on opening night in San Jose, meaning that the "revenge factor" definitely comes into play this evening. Since that loss though, the Canucks have rattled off three-straight victories and are definitely "firing on all cylinders".
Note that San Jose is 6-8 (-6.1 units) the last two seasons after playing three consecutive home games, while Vancouver is 20-7 (+8 units) vs. division opponents in the same time frame.
And to say this is a "revenge spot" for the Canucks would be a huge understatement, as they've lost eight straight to San Jose including last year's first-round postseason sweep.
Vancouver definitely has the right man in net to break the slide to the Sharks as Roberto Luongo is 3-1-2 with a highly respectable 2.09 GAA n his last six vs. them.
San Jose's Antti Niemi has a 1.67 GAA vs. Vancouver over his last eight vs. it, but take note that he'll be without the services of defenseman Brad Stuart tonight who was suspended for three games for an illegal check to the Rangers' Rick Nash.
I think the Canucks offer a lot of value in this matchup.
Bruce Marshall
San Diego St vs. Air Force
Pick: Under
Recent series history between San Diego State and Air Force has been rather low-scoring, with four of the last five meetings falling well beneath the posted "total" in the mid 50s tonight. And while it might not be too late for SDSU to salvage season after slow start in September, especially since juco QB Kaehler (3 TDP vs. Nevada) appears to be getting comfy in starting role, the Aztecs had been scoring barely 20 ppg prior to last Friday's shootout vs. defense-shy Nevada. But it's that series history that suggests another releatively lower-scoring game tonight, especially since San Diego State HC Rocky Long is so familiar with the Air Force option after his 11 seasons at New Mexico and last three on Montezuma Mesa (2010 as d.c., 2011-present as head coach). Falcs also now working on their third QB of the season, and Troy Calhoun's option was grounded last week at Annapolis.
Dave Price
Louisville -19
You want to fade road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that check in off a close win of 7 points or less over a conference rival when they're matched up against an opponent that's coming off a win against a conference rival. Doing so has produced a 40-14 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average score of 37.0 to 14.9. Louisville has smoked its last two opponents by 72 and 23 points, respectively, and the numbers tell us to keep riding the Cardinals. They are 12-3 ATS in home games after two consecutive wins by 17 or more points since 1992. They have won by an average of 28.5 points in this spot. Also, Louisville is 7-0 ATS when matched up against a team with a winning percentage above 75% under coach Strong. Rutgers is not the same team that it was last season when it played Louisville to a three-point game. It returns just 10 starters from that team while the Cards return 16. The Scarlet Knights had no answer for Fresno State's offensive attack or SMU's, and I don't see them being able to slow down Louisville either. Rutgers was able to trade punches in those games but will have trouble doing so here against an experienced Louisville defense that ranks No. 1 in the country with 6.8 points allowed per game. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
Rutgers +19
Louisville hasn't been tested all season, but Rutgers has the potential to give the Cardinals a game tonight. The Scarlet Knights have played Louisville to two and three-point games each of the past two seasons, and they have been a tremendous investment lately against quality competition. The Scarlet Knights are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Rutgers nearly beat Fresno State, a pretty good 5-0 team, on the road. It also defeated an Arkansas team that had enough talent to hang with Texas A&M. I think the books are giving Louisville a little too much respect tonight. We'll take the points.
Bill Biles
Giants / Bears Under 48
I think this game will be a low 40's game. The Giants are struggling putting up points this year. The Bears should be able to score points, but i think 28 will be the most they score. The only thing that concerns me is if their are defensive Touchdowns that occur, but you cannot account for that in a given game. Look for a final of 28-17.
Jack Jones
San Diego State -3½
After an 0-3 start that included losses to Ohio State and Oregon State, the San Diego State Aztecs were clearly battle-tested. They would rebound nicely with back-to-back victories over New Mexico State and Nevada to get back on track. Remember, this is a team that won nine games last year and returned 15 starters and 50 lettermen from that squad. There is still a lot to play for with the Mountain West Title within their grasp.
I really like what I’ve seen from the offense in the last two contests. The Aztecs put up 441 total yards against New Mexico State, and a whopping 541 total yards against Nevada last week. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime against Nevada. Running backs Adam Muema (134 yards, 2 TD) and Donnel Pumphrey (112 yards, 1 TD) also had big games against the Wolf Pack.
Air Force is clearly in rebuilding mode in 2013 with a 1-5 start after bringing back just 10 starters from last year’s team. The Falcons are only averaging 25.5 points and 379.5 total yards per game, while giving up a whopping 39.3 points and 493.0 yards per game to rank 119th in the country in total defense. They were beaten by 32 against Utah State, 22 against Boise State, 33 against Wyoming and 18 against Navy. They really haven’t even been all that competitive this season.
San Diego State will have one extra day than Air Force to prepare for this contest. It last played on Friday, October 4, while the Falcons last played on Saturday, October 5. That extra day is huge in these Thursday night games on short weeks. Air Force is 5-14 against the spread in its last 19 games overall. The Falcons are 3-13 against the number in their last 16 home games. The Aztecs are 4-0 against the spread in their last four conference games. San Diego State is 4-0 against the number in its last four meetings with Air Force. Bet San Diego State Thursday.
Eddie J
Rutgers at Louisville
Pick: Rutgers
4-1 Rutgers takes on #8 ranked Louisville. Louisville's schedule is very soft and this may be their toughest challenge of the year.The last 6 meetings have come within 3 points between these 2 schools. Rutgers has a very potent offense scoring 40 PPG and have scored 50+ twice this year against Fresno State and SMU. QB Gary Nova has 13 TD's which is second to Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater's 16. We know Louisville will put up points and Rutgers will score their fair share.
LT Profits
Rutgers vs Louisville
Pick : Under 56
The Louisville Cardinals are ranked eighth in the country at 5-0 but could use a win over a quality opponent to be taken seriously, which they now get to do vs. the 4-1 Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who are a missed two-point conversion at Fresno State in overtime away from being 5-0 themselves. What may get lost in the shuffle here though is the performance of these two defenses this season. Louisville leads the country in scoring defense allowing an obscene 6.8 points per game while ranking third in total defense and fourth in both rushing defense and passing defense. Rutgers meanwhile is allowing just 376.8 total yards per game and even that figure is skewed by two overtime games. The Knights are actually ahead of Louisville in rushing defense, ranking third at just 70.6 yards per contest. The ‘under’ is 8-1 in the last nine Rutgers road games vs. teams with winning home records.
Detroit vs Oakland
Pick : Under 6.5
The fifth and deciding game of the ALDS between the Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics is a rematch of Game 2 with Justin Verlander facing Sonny Grey, and that was a scoreless game until the ninth inning when the Athletics prevailed 1-0. The former Cy Young winner Verlander may have not lived up to his usual lofty standards during the course of the year, but he is in vintage form currently having tosses 19 scoreless innings over his last three starts while allowing just 13 hits with 33 strikeouts vs. five walks! He allowed four hits and stuck out 11 in seven innings in Game 2. Gray also allowed just four hits in his eight scoreless innings in Game 2 while striking out nine and the rookie posted a 2.67 ERA over his 12 regular season games. The ‘under’ is 7-0 in the Tigers’ last seven road games vs. right-handed starters.
Wunderdog
San Jose at Vancouver
Pick: Under 5.5
These clubs are both off to good starts with 6 wins and just 1 loss between them. The Sharks have been great on the back side of the ice, as they have allowed three opponents a grand total of 4 goals on the season. They will head to Vancouver, and the Canucks have been doing some defending of their own, as they have killed all 15 power-play opportunities this season. The Sharks have packed their "D" for road games, as they are 8-1-3 to the UNDER in their last 12. The Canucks have played defensive at home where they are 6-1-1 to the UNDER. This series has seen just one of the last six make it over the total, and this one isn't likely to get there either. Make the play on the UNDER.
Playersbet
Colorado / Boston Over 5½
Colorado is on a roll to start this NHL season, winning their 1st 3 games. We expect plenty of offense in tonight’s matchup. Both Boston and the Av’s are playing great hickey right now. The avs are coming into tonight’s putting up 11 goals in their past 3 games and we look for them to get a couple more tonight. Both teams come into tonight’s match up averaging over three goals per game. Take the over as this should be a great hockey game.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie comes in baseball as I side with the Oakland A's to advance to the ALCS with the Game Five win over the Detroit Tigers.
I think Jim Leyland made a mistake when he used likely Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer in relief on Tuesday night at Comerica Park. Yes, the Tigers were able to dodge the bullet in their 8-6 win, but I feel the momentum really is with the Athletics tonight, as Oakland is still very confident they can take care of business here on their home diamond.
Velrander pitched a four-hit shutout over Oakland last October in the decisive Game Five of this round, but that was then, and this is now. Verlander is still very tough to beat, but he is not his old invincible self this season, and he is matched against a young gun in Sonny Gray who was masterful in outdueling Verlander in Game Two, as Gray handcuffed the Tigers over 8 scoreless innings while allowing just 4 hits and striking out 9.
Miguel Cabrera is clearly hurting, and with his big bat silenced, I can see Gray keeping the other Detroit bats just as quiet.
Going with Gray to edge Verlander in the clincher tonight.
2♦ OAKLAND
Craig Davis
Thursday's free play is the Arizona Wildcats.
Free play of the day on the Arizona Wildcats plus the number vs. a team welcoming in the Coach Orgeron era.
Less than two weeks after losing HC Lane Kiffin to firing (after an embarrassing loss to Arizona State), the USC Trojans (3-2, 0-2) are fairly confident they can get their first Pac 12 win of the season.
The Arizona Wildcats, on the other hand, are also coming in off a bye, licking their wounds after a big loss to the Washington Huskies.
Something's gotta give, and while I believe the Trojans have more talent, the coaching change (and possibly a philosophy change) is all happening too fast and the Wildcats have enough talent to stay in this game.
New OC Clay Helton will be calling plays for the first time all season, and there's a feeling in Los Angeles that QB Cody Kessler will be learning how to keep the tempo up and throw to a bunch of different receivers. Eventually he'll "get it", but in the early going I have a feeling it will be a lot of pressure on him that he's not used to dealing with.
Arizona's ground game (55th in the nation) should keep the ball out of Kessler's hands enough to frustrate him, as the Trojans obviously want their offense on the field more than not.
If Marquise Lee doesn't play (which I don't think he will) it only helps our cause.
Take Arizona plus the points as your free play of the day.
2♦ ARIZONA
Brad Wilton
My free play goes on Thursday night as I will side with the Under in the San Diego State-Air Force contest from Colorado Springs.
The Aztecs are coming off a 51-44 overtime win over Nevada that obviously sailed Over the total, but Rocky Long's team has played both of their road games this season Under the total, and Long is quite familiar with the option attack the Falcons like to run on offense over the years.
Air Force just held Under the total in their service battle with Navy, and they have held Under the total in this series 4 of the last 5 times these schools have tangled.
Weather expected to be a little gusty on Thursday night, so look for the ground game to chew up clock.
Take San Diego State and Air Force to hold Under the total on Thursday in this Mountain West meeting.
2♦ SAN DIEGO STATE-AIR FORCE UNDER