Harry Bondi
SAN DIEGO STATE (-3) over Air Force
After a sluggish 0-3 start to the season, San Diego State is getting healthy and has now won two in a row. Yes, those wins came against inferior competition (New Mexico State and Nevada), but at 1-5 with its only win of the season coming against Colgate, the Fly Boys fit the profile of another lowly opponent for the Aztecs. New starting QB Quinn Kaehler has re-energized the San Diego State passing attack and must have been licking his chops in preparation for this game as the Air Force defense has allowed 44.6 points per game the last five weeks. Aztecs Head Coach Rocky Long is quite familiar with the Air Force option attack having spent 10 years with New Mexico before joining the San Diego State staff three seasons ago so it won't take much to limit the Fly Boys tonight, especially since they are on their third starting QB this season. Air Force is a dismal 3-13 ATS at home the last three-plus seasons and that trend continues tonight. Lay the field goal.
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LOUISVILLE (-19) 41 Rutgers 17FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I almost pulled the trigger on this game and would have had the line stayed at -17 or less. Louisville is not just an elite offensive team with Heisman Trophy candidate Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, but the Cardinals also have a very good defense that’s allowed just 4.0 yards per play and 6.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl and 19 points per game against an average defensive unit. Rutgers has a better than average offense that has averaged 5.9 yppl and rates at 0.3 yppl better than average with quarterback Tom Savage under center but my math model projects just 293 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Scarlet Knights in this game and the Cardinals held a better than average Kentucky attack to just 13 points.
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Rutgers also has a slightly better than average defense that’s yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive unit, but Bridewater and company have averaged 7.9 yppl and 44 points per game (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team). The absence of top target WR DeVante Parker is a concern but the Cardinals have good depth at wide receiver with 5 other receivers with 12 to 16 catches on the season. My math model projects 521 yarsd at 7.4 yppl for Louisville in this game and Bridgewater should have a huge game against a sub-par Rutgers pass defense. However, when the Cardinals build a big lead they aren’t as likely to extend it by simply running the ball because Rutgers has a very good run defense that’s given up just 3.3 yards per rushing play this season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average defense).
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My math projects a 24 point win by Louisville if they run their normal offense the entire game but they are likely to run more if they build a comfortable lead and I get Louisville by 22 points as a fair line in this game. I’ll still call for a 24 point win because the Cardinals apply to a very good 72-19-2 ATS situation while Rutgers applies to a 26-72-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s overtime win against SMU. The only thing that kept me from making this a Best Bet was a 63-18-2 ATS statistical profile indicator that applies to Rutgers that is based on their great run defense (teams that control the line of scrimmage are usually good bets as underdogs). But, I still like the Cardinals.
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San Diego State (-3½) 30 AIR FORCE 26SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego State has a better than average run defense (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) and Aztecs coach Rocky Long is well schooled in defending the option after many years as a defensive coordinator and head coach in the same league with Air Force (Long was at New Mexico prior to coming to San Diego). Air Force should move the ball at a decent clip (I project 5.2 yards per play) but San Diego State should have even more offensive success against a bad Air Force defense that’s given up 6.7 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. San Diego State is better now that Quin Kaehler has started the last 3 games in place of the horrible Adam Dingwell (39.7% completions) but that Aztecs have still been 0.7 yppl worse than average in Keahler’s 3 starts. That’s still better than the Air Force defense and my math model projects 409 yards at 5.7 yppl for the Aztecs in this game. Overall the math favors San Diego State by 4 points so this game is priced about right.
Joe Gavazzi
Oakland -105
It was nearly 1 year ago today that from this mound Verlander pitched a 4 hit shutout to win the playoff series from the As. After pitching brilliantly in an eventual 1-0 loss to Oakland Saturday night, Verlander goes to the mound for the finale with a 22IP scoreless post-season streak vs. the As. Though Verlander is a solid choice to start this game because of his vast experience, please note that he was just 13-12 this season with the As winning just 7/16 road starts where he posted a 3.73 ERA. Oakland counters with Gray who has been brilliant since his second half call-up. The year to date ERA for Gray is 2.38 with Oakland going 4-2 in his home starts where he posted a 1.99 ERA. Though Gray was not around for Oaklands 1-0 victory last Saturday night, he clearly proved he was not shying away from the bright lights. More importantly than this pitching matchup for the purposes of our selection, are Oaklands home field and their current form. While Detroit was 43-40 on the road this year, Oakland had a record of 53-30 at home including 40-19 recently and 32-15 following a defeat. The As have played the most consistent baseball of any team in either league. Since mid-May Oakland is 79-46, a .632 winning clip including 26-11 of late. That holds significance because NO TEAM IN MLB FINISHED THE YEAR PLAYING .600 BALL OR BETTER.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Giants +8 over CHICAGO: I have to feel that the Giants pride will show up in this one and that they will look to try and get a win before their break. The Giants have had major turnover problems this year that has really cost them at the wrong times, but take away the miscues and the team really isn't all that bad. They still have a very good QB behind center and a solid group of WRs. Their defense isn't all that bad it's just been put in bad spots by its offense. The Bears are a solid team, but they still have some issues on offense and their defense isn't the greatest, ranking 28th in points allowed (28 ppg) and 24th vs the pass (278.8 ypg). A nice trend here to support this play as QB Jay Cutler is 2-15 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite when his team has a winning record. The Giants will be pumped up here an no matter how bad they I have played I don't feel that the Bears should be favored by this much over a quality for. This game will be decided by a FG.