LT Profits
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Look for a good old fashioned pitching duel this afternoon when Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants take on Dan Haren and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The reining Cy Young Award winner Lincecum is having another great season, as he is 14-7 with a sparkling 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, with an amazing 254 strikeouts in 218.1 innings. Furthermore, he has been almost unhittable at home, where he is 9-2 with a minuscule 1.84 ERA. As if that is not enough, he has totally dominated this Arizona lineup, going a perfect eight for eight in Quality Starts while posting at least 12 strikeouts in four of those outings..
Not to be outdone, Haren is 14-9 with a 3.02 ERA in his own right, and believe it or not, he has a lower WHIP than Lincecum does, at an amazing 0.99 in 223.1 innings. Haren also gets his share of strikeouts with 216, and he has allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts vs. the Giants.
Not only are these two of the best pitchers in the National League that have had a lot of success vs. their respective opponent today, but also both offenses are in a funk right now. The Diamondbacks are hitting just .249 vs. right-handed pitching over the last 10 games while the Giants have been even worse against them, batting .236 over that same span.
We see no reason why each pitcher should not dominate the opposing team today, and although his total is set very low, this game has 3-2 written all over it.
Pick: Diamondbacks/Giants Under 7
EZWINNERS
Colorado Buffalos @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Play: West Virginia Mountaineers -16.5
Colorado is a very bad team especially on the offensive side of the ball where the Buffs offense is horrific. Colorado can't run the ball (109th in the nation), their quarterback play is shaky at best with Hawkins under center and they lack big time playmakers. West Virginia will be seeking revenge for last year’s loss at Colorado and they have several homerun threats on their team led by running back Noel Devine. The Mountaineers could easily be 3-0 right now, but six turnovers killed them in their loss to Auburn despite outgaining the Tigers by over 100 total yards. Colorado is only 2-11 against the spread in their last thirteen games as a road underdog. Lay the points.
BIG AL
Pittsburgh at Chicago
Presumably Pittsburgh doesn't have anything against the city of Los Angeles, however the Pirates recently spoiled the Dodgers party and caused them to keep the champagne on ice by taking three of four games from L.A. at PNC Park over the weekend, culminating with Pittsburgh 11-1 embarrassment of the Dodgers in the Monday afternoon finale. But as competitive as the Pirates have been at home this season (almost reaching the .500 mark there) they've been just the opposite on the road, as their 19-55 record away from PNC is the worst road record in the Majors. The Pirates will go with lefty Paul Maholm, who looked like he would easily get to at least 10 wins on the season after the first half as he went 6-4 prior to the all- star break. But since then, Maholm has gone 2-5 in 13 post-break starts and can't seem to buy a win lately. He is 4-1 lifetime against the Cubs but with an unsightly 7.06 ERA. Chicago will counter with young two-sport star Jeff Samardzija (he was a pretty highly-touted receiver at Notre Dame) and although Samardzija has twenty appearances for the Cubs this season, this will be only his third start. He is no-doubt auditioning for a spot for their rotation in 2010 and his last start on Sept. 23 against the Brewers really was not that bad. He will be getting innings in Mexico this winter and there is no better way to impress his manager before heading south than a strong outing tonight against a lineup that he should be able to handle.
PLAY CHICAGO
Randall the Handle
SEATTLE +1.10 over Oakland
The M’s have won the first two games of this series and there’s no reason why they can’t complete the sweep. They’re an impressive 45-32 at home and the A’s are 10 games under .500 on the road. If momentum means anything at all, the M’s have it and the A’s do not. Doug Fister has labored in his past few starts but this guy has some very decent stuff indeed. His last three games were against the Yanks, Rangers and the suddenly hot Blue Jays and that’s a tough stretch of starts. He’ll now take a step down in class against the A’s and the last time he faced them less than a month ago he went five full and allowed just one earned run. Fister also has solid starts against the South Side, the Angels and Cleveland. The A’s have dropped three in a row and after today they’ll wrap up the season in Anaheim. They’ve pretty much thrown in the towel and have no interest in the last few games. At least the M’s are at home and they’ll finish at home against the Rangers this last weekend. When you’re playing for nothing and wrapping the season up on the last weekend of the year, the home side has to have an advantage and frankly, the A’s have none here. Play: Seattle +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Boyd
So Mississippi vs. UAB
Play: UAB +9.5
The UAB Blazers have been one of the most dangerous dogs in college football of late with a 10-1 ATS mark in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. After back-to-back losses on the road, expect the Blazers to be jacked up for this home contest against a So. Miss team that drilled them 70-14 last season. The public is all over So. Miss because of last year's result, but the Blazers return all 11 offensive starters, including versatile QB Joe Webb, and the offense has looked good in each of UAB's home games. Plus, So. Miss enters with major health concerns. Running back Damion Fletcher and wide receiver DeAndre Brown are both listed as doubtful for tonight's contest. The last thing to consider is that So. Miss hasn't been nearly as good away from home. Last season, the Golden Eagles outscored their six road foes by less than one point per game on average. Also, the Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. I like the Blazers to give the Golden Eagles a scare tonight. Take the points.
Ben Burns
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have dominated the Washington Nationals in recent games. In fact, the Braves are a perfect 5-0 the last five meetings in this series. They won those games by a combined score of 35-12. Here, they should have a major advantage on the mound. Hanson is 11-4 with an excellent 2.98 ERA. Mock is 3-10 with a 5.91 ERA. Hanson is also 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA vs. the Nationals. On the other hand, Mock is 0-2 with a terrible 6.43 ERA this season vs. the Braves. Mock is also 0-3 with an ugly 6.50 ERA in his last three starts. Given the pitching mismatch and the Braves recent overall dominance in this series, consider laying the wood with ATLANTA
Tom Freese
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Over
Boston is 28-11 OVER their last 39 games as favorites and they are 10-1-1 OVER as favorites of -201 or higher. The Red Sox are 27-11-1 OVER vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 5-2-1 OVER with Jon Lester at home vs. losing teams. Cleveland is 6-1 OVER their last 7 games vs. teams with a winning record and they are 14-6-2 OVER vs. lefty starters. The Indians are 36-16-6 OVER their last 58 games as road dogs. Starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has allowed 31 runs in 19.1 innings of work. PLAY ON 'OVER'
John Fina
Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (+140)
Today we will side with the Pittsburgh Pirates (as underdogs) as they battle with the Chicago Cubs. One reason why we like the Pittsburgh Pirates in this spot is because they will be sending to the mound the much better starting pitcher. This tells it all... The Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Pitcher (Paul Maholm) has a 2.14 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Chicago Cubs Starting Pitcher (Jeff Samardzija) has a 10.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a proven winner when they battle the Chicago Cubs (when Paul Maholm is on the mound). In fact, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-2 in Paul Maholms last 9 starts against the Chicago Cubs. The fact that we are getting the much better starting pitcher at an underdog price, is pure value. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates!
Rocketman
Pittsburgh @ Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh is 61-97 on the season while the Chicago Cubs are 82-76 overall this year. Pittsburgh is 21-56 on the road this year. Pittsburgh is scoring only 4 runs per game overall this year, 3.5 runs per game on the road and 4.1 runs per game against right handed starters. Cubs bullpen has a nice 3.59 ERA at home this year. Paul Maholm is 4-6 with a 5.54 ERA on the road this season. Chicago Cubs are 32-15 overall vs Pittsburgh last 3 years and have won 10 of 14 against Pittsburgh this year. Pirates are 11-41 in their last 52 games as a road underdog. Cubs are 56-21 in their last 77 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Cubs are 36-16 in their last 52 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Cubs are 18-8 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cubs are 57-26 in their last 83 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Cubs are 23-11 in their last 34 vs. National League Central. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!
Vegas Experts
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
The last two games of this series have both gone Under and we see the same thing happening this evening as the Rangers are a perfect 7-0 Under this season following a game where they had at least 10 less hits than their opponent. Texas remains a strong Under team overall (91-59), particularly after scoring two runs or less (29-9). Meanwhile, the Angels have allowed four runs or less in four straight games and are 12-2 Under in that role. Starter John Lackey owns a perfect 9-0 Under record in the month of October.
Play on: Under