Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 13

Jim Feist

Rangers vs Tigers
Pick: Under

Texas plays its home games in a great hitter's park, but here in Comerica Park in Detroit it's a different place, a huge park great for pitchers. The under is 4-1 in the Rangers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record and they don't face an ordinary pitcher in this one. The under is 20-7-1 in ace Justin Verlander's last 28 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. With so much at stake, both managers will have their best bullpen arms available, as well. Play the Rangers/Tigers Game 4 under the total.

Brewers vs Cardinals
Pick: Over

A pair of powerhouse offensive teams meet in Game 4 and the over is 9-2-1 in the Brewers last 12 on grass. The over is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Starter Randy Wolf is 35 years old and not throwing well, giving up 7, 4 and 6 runs his last three starts (14 innings). He has a losing road record with a 3.81 ERA away from home and has struggled against the powerful St. Louis offense this season, allowing 5 homers and 32 hits in 32 innings for a 5.34 ERA. Meanwhile the over is 8-2 in the Cardinals last 10 games. Play the Brewers/Cardinals Game 4 over the total.

Charlie Scott

San Diego State vs. Air Force
Play: San Diego State +7

Here's a game where I feel the better Team is the dog and the motivated dog ! This season when Air Force has played bigger stronger teams, they have been pushed all over the field (Notre Dame last week & TCU). Injuries to players on Air Forces defense won't help. SDST's defense has already played against option teams twice this season winning games vs Cal Poly & Army. About 8 yrs ago I attended a New Mexico Booster function in the offseason where Rocky Long spoke, now at the time Fisher DeBerry was the Coach at Air Force, However Rocky came right out and said he despised Air Force and had that game circled every Year.

Rob Vinciletti

Edmonton Oilers vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Minnesota Wild

The Wild return home off a pair of close road losses to The Islanders and the Senators to take on an Edmonton team they they have owned the past 3 seasons. Minnesota has won 9 of the past 12 in the series including all 6 last season and the last 6 home games vs the Oilers. Edmonton is a lousy 1-12 with 3 or more days rest, 11-25 off a non conference game and 14-33 in divisional play the last 3 years. Look for the Minnesota to emerge with the win here tonight.

Seam Murphy

Avalanche @ Senators
PICK: Over 5.5

The Avalanche have seen each of their first three games play 'under' the total this season, which is somewhat surprising considering last year's team didn't record its third 'under' result until November 4th.

This looks like as good a spot as any for that trend to reverse, as the Avs face a Senators squad that has posted a 3-0 o/u record to date.

There's certainly nothing wrong with the Sens offense, as they've scored 11 goals through three games. Their defense has left a lot to be desired, however, as they've given up a whopping 14 goals.

Ottawa continues to play at a break-neck pace, firing at least 32 shots on goal in each of its first three games. The Sens have been lights out on the power play, converting on 5-of-15 opportunities. Their penalty kill hasn't been nearly as sharp, allowing three goals a man short over the last two games.

We finally saw some signs of life from the Colorado offense last night, as they scored a pair of goals in regulation time, and ultimately defeated the Blue Jackets in a shootout. The Avs recorded 32 shots in that contest. Remember, they fired 36 shots on goal against the Bruins on Monday.

It's only a matter of time before the Avs truly bust out offensively. They're absolutely loaded with speed, not to mention young talent. Some of that was on display last night, as first round draft pick Gabriel Landeskog scored the game-tying goal in the final minute, and third-year man Matt Duchene scored the winner in the shootout.

Defensively, the Avs have been solid, but their performance has had a lot do with the play of goaltender Semyon Varlamov. He's not expected to make a fourth consecutive start on Thursday however, that job will likely instead go to J.S. Giguere.

When these two teams met last season, we saw 11 goals in a 6-5 Avalanche overtime win. In their lone meeting two years ago, they combined to score seven goals. No surprise if we see another high-scoring affair on Thursday night in Ottawa. Take the over.

EZWINNERS

Detroit Tigers -135

Its do or die for the Detroit Tigers as they now trail three games to one against the defending American League Champion Texas Rangers. What better person to have on the mound in an elimination game than Justin Verlander who is a certain lock to win the American League Cy Young award. The Rangers got the best of Verlander in a 3-2 win in game one of this series as CJ Wilson pitched extremely well for the Rangers, but Verlander is close to unbeatable at home. I expect this to be a very low scoring game, but look for the Tigers to send this series back to Texas. Play on Detroit.

Matt Fargo

Edmonton Oilers at Minnesota Wild
Pick: Minnesota Wild

We played against Minnesota on Tuesday and won as the Wild lost in a shootout against Ottawa in the Sens home opener. Minnesota heads back home for Thursday's game against Edmonton as it looks to stay undefeated at Xcel Energy Center after defeating Columbus to start the season. The Wild should be ready tonight as they have a bad taste leftover from that Ottawa game as they blew a two-goal lead in the third period as the normally tough and disciplined defense fell apart late. Edmonton got off to a great start with a shootout win over Pittsburgh at home. A win like that can build confidence but it has been four days since then and momentum could already be lost because of the extended time off. This is the first road game of the season for the Oilers after finishing with the worst road record in the league a year ago to go along with the league's worst home record. Their 62 points were the worst in the NHL and there isn't much hope for this young, rebuilding team. "We definitely expect to be better," said the Oilers' Shawn Horcoff. "At the same time, though, we are still really young. I think the rookies that came in last year did well, in Ebs [Jordan Eberle] and Hallsy. Sure, we expect them to grow and become better players, but at the same time they're still only 19 and 20 years old. It's going to take a little bit of time." Minnesota has absolutely owned this series as it has won the last six meetings in this series as well as 16 straight games at home against the Oilers. Goaltending is all about confidence and Wild goalie Niklas Backstrom should have plenty of it entering this game. He 18-2-1 with a 1.74 GAA, a .935 save percentage and four shutouts in career 23 starts against Edmonton and those number are even better on his home ice as he is 14-0-0 with a 1.21 GAA and .954 save percentage. Center Pierre-Marc Bouchard returns to the lineup for Minnesota after serving his two-game suspension. 3* Minnesota Wild

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

California/ USC Over 58.5: This is a bit out of character for me as I am mostly an “Under” player, but I feel this a good spot for me to go the other way. The Cal Bears have a very good passing attack that ranks 19th in the country, putting up 300 ypg. Tonight they get to face a bad USC pass defense that ranks 97th in the nation, allowing 267 ypg, plus they rank 85th in Phil Steele's pass efficiency defense. Overall this USC defense has been nowhere near their normal standards as they come in ranked 61st overall (380 ypg) and 63rd in points allowed (26.4 ppg), plus in their 2 games vs Pac-12 opponents this year they have allowed 42 ppg and 473 ypg, including 324 ypg passing. USC normally has a top 15 defense, but not this year. The USC offense, whoever, is not Bad. The Trojans come in ranked 15th in passing at 318 ypg and 28th overall at 454 ypg, plus they do put up 30 ppg. The will also be taking on a bad pass defense, as the Bears come in ranked 74th vs the pass, allowing 224.8 ypg. What's even worse (or better for us) is the fact that the Bears will be without CB Marc Anthony and that means that True Freshman Stefan McClure will have the unenviable task of try to stop one of the best wideouts in CFB in Robert Woods. Talk about baptism under fire. I look for USC to go after him early and often. Bottom line here is that both of these high powered pass offenses should have a field day vs two weak pass “D” s, as this game reaches 60+ points with ease.

2 UNIT PLAY

USC -3 over California: As mention above, Cal will be starting a true freshmen at CB and he will be guarding one of the best wideouts in the game in Robert Woods. That's a huge advantage for a USC team that is already highly ranked in the passing game. The USC defense has been shredded the last 2 weeks and I do expect a better effort from them vs a Cal team that has averaged just 19 ppg vs Pac-12 foes this year. The Trojan's just have too much firepower in this one and they should win what will be a wild high scoring affair by at least a TD.

SPORTS WAGERS

Edmonton +148 over MINNESOTA

The Wild get Pierre-Marc Bouchard back after he served his two-game suspension but that’s not going to deter us from backing the Oilers. For one, Minnesota has not proved that they’re worthy of this tag for three years now and counting. They were completely dominated by the Senators in its last game and thus far they’ve played Ottawa, the Islanders and Columbus, not exactly the cream of the crop. The Wild has one win in three games. The Oilers are only going to get better as the weeks, months and years past. This is a very young and talented group that could get on a roll. The Oilers are going to win more games than they won a year ago. They’re also going to make mistakes and lose at least half their games and likely more. However, opening the year with a win over Pittsburgh is sweet for these guys and there’s no reason they can’t get this proverbial monkey off their backs. The bottom line here is value against a Minnesota club that scares nobody. Play: Edmonton +148 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. ISLANDERS +118 over Tampa Bay

The Lightning has given up 10 goals over its last two games and has been outshot 85-54 over those two games. Defensively, this is a team that could be in trouble. The second pairing of Pavel Kubina and Mattias Ohlund offers a veteran presence but at the age of 34 and 35, respectively, the duo is showing the signs of age and wear and tear. The league is now all about speed and talent and this year’s edition of the Lightning lacks the defense to combat it. They do play a frustrating 1-3-1 variation of the trap but this is a team that surprised many last year and they won’t sneak up on anyone this year. The goaltending duo of Dwayne Roloson (age 42) and Mathieu Garon might be this NHL's biggest liability in net. Can you think of a worse duo? The Islanders have not been sharp in two games against the Wild and Panthers. However, New York has its share of impressive youngsters, especially at forward with guys like John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Michael Grabner, Pierre Parenteau, Matt Moulson, Josh Bailey and the highly- touted Nino Niederreiter. Also, the Isles have their No. 1 defenseman back in Mark Streit and it’s only a matter of time before the Islanders start popping in some goals and it could very well begin here. Play: N.Y. Islanders +118 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles/NEW JERSEY Over 5

When you think of the Devils you think defense but that was then and this is now. New Jersey is going to give up goals and plenty of them because they’re not strong behind the blue-line and they’re weaker in net when Marty Brodeur starts. The Kings are coming off two games in Europe to open the year in which they faced the Sabres and Ryan Miller and the Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist. They scored just five times in those two games, which isn’t bad but the going gets a whole lot easier against Brodeur and the Devils. Don’t be surprised to see the Kings score five on their own tonight. The Kings have four potential prolific point getters in Anze Kopitar, Simon Gagne, Mike Richards and Dustin Brown. Justin Williams is a 60-point guy and Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson can get them the puck. This is a low number with small juice and one that should not be missed. Play: Los Angeles/New Jersey over 5 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

St. Louis –104 over DALLAS

The puck line strongly suggests that the Blues will not lose this game in regulation and therefore we’ll play it that way. On the puck line, the Stars are -½ +159 while the Blue Notes are +½ -173 and that’s a strong enticement to sway any money off the Blues and onto the Stars. You can break it down all you want and analyze even more. It really does not matter, as there’s nothing to analyze. The line says it all and sometimes “reading between the lines” is all the info one need’s to make an intelligent bet. Play: St. Louis –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Passing MLB

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Brewers/Cardinals UNDER 8.5

Some strong trends in favor of the Under can't be ignored this evening. First off, consider that the Under is 14-3-4 in the last 21 meetings between these two in St. Louis. In addition, the Under is 4-0-2 in Lohse's last 6 starts vs. the Brewers and 5-0-1 in Wolf's last 6 road starts vs. the Cardinals. Dating back to last season, the Cards and Brewers have been Under tonight's number in 13 straight games played at Busch Stadium. Also, the Under is 9-3-1 in the Cardinals' last 13 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-1-1 in the Brewers' last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. We'll take the Under in this one.

Steve Janus

St Louis Cardinals -134

St Louis a great shot at taking a 3-1 series tonight. With the Cardinals 4-3 win in game 3, the Brewers are 0-3 on the road in the playoffs. St Louis has all the momentum and I give them the advantage on the mound in game 4.

St Louis will give the ball to Kyle Lohse for the first time since losing in game 1 of the Phillies series back on Oct. 1. Lohse gave up 5 ER in just over 5 innings of work. I expect a much better effort in this start, as he takes on a Brewers offense that is lacking confidence away from home. Lohse was 14-9 with a 3.53 ERA in 31 starts this season. In his last two home starts against the Brewers, he allowed just 1 ER in 14 innings.

While it doesn't show up in the box score, Lohse had a ton of pressure to perform at a very high level in game 1, as he was going up against Phillies ace Roy Halladay. Tonight Lohse faces Randy Wolf, who has a 10.28 ERA and 2.318 WHIP in his last three starts. He had a 4.27 ERA in 18 road starts in 2011, and was torched for 7 ER in just 3 innings in his only playoff start at Arizona.

St Louis is 8-3 in their last 11 League Championship home games, 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and 5-1 in Lohse's last 6 starts vs. National League Central. BET THE CARDINALS!

Jack Jones

St. Louis Cardinals -134

The Cardinals take a huge 3-1 edge in this series with a home victory in Game 4 Thursday over the Milwaukee Brewers. I'll gladly back the better starter in this one at a very generous price at home.

Kyle Lohse is 14-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.117 WHIP this season, including 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in his last three starts. Lohse pitched six shutout innings in a 4-2 victory over Milwaukee on 9/6/2011 in his last start against them.

Like Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf has completely blown up in the postseason. In fact, he had been terrible at the end of the regular season as well. Wolf is 0-2 with a 10.43 ERA and 2.318 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 17 runs, 3 homers, and 34 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.

The Brewers are hitting just .245 and scoring 4.1 runs/game on the road this season, where they are 39-45. Milwaukee has lost four straight road games, and they are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. In fact, the Brewers are 11-24 in their last 35 games as a road underdog overall.

The Cardinals are 8-3 in Lohse's last 11 starts overall, 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a favorite, and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite. St. Louis is also 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite, and 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

MLB PREDICTIONS

Detroit Tigers -159

The Rangers took Game 4 going up 3-1, but the Tigers are hoping to head back to Texas, and have their ace on the mound in Game 5. Justin Verlander is back on the mound after 4 days rest and looks to give his team a chance at forcing a 6th game. Of course Verlander always gives the Tigers a chance at winning, as they are 50-23 in his last 73 starts, 40-14 in his last 54 starts as a favorite, and 39-12 in his last 51 home starts. Like mentioned in my 5 Star write up, the Tigers do a good job bouncing back from losses as they are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a loss. Note that the Tigers are also 45-12 in their last 57 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. There isn't much negative to say about CJ Wilson, who will be on the mound for the Rangers, but he is just 6-13 in his last 19 road starts vs a team with a winning record, and 2-5 in his last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Rangers are 5-17 in their last 22 meetings with Detroit at Comerica Park. Detroit's manager Jim Leyland seemed to have a positive attitude in post game and I expect him to bring that into the locker room to keep the spirits up. Detroit knows that they send their ace to the mound in front of their home crowd, where he is lights out, and if they can force another game anything can happen. I don't see the Tigers going down easily especially with Verlander on the mound. I'm laying some chalk here on the home team, but I like the price we are getting - I'm making this a 2 unit play.

Black Widow

1* on Detroit Tigers -141

Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers are not going to go down without a fight. Look for one of the most dominant performances of the entire season today from Verlander as he keeps his team alive with a Game 5 victory at home. Verlander is 25-6 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in 37 starts this season. He'll be up against C.J. Wilson, who came into the postseason as the Rangers Ace but has pitched anything like it. Wilson is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA in two postseason starts, allowing eight earned runs, three homers, and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings. Verlander has had success against Texas, while Wilson has not been effective when facing the Tigers. Verlander is 6-3 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Texas, and Wilson is 0-0 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.852 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus Detroit. Both of Wilson's starts against the Tigers came this season. In his last home start against Texas on 4/11/2011, Verlander pitched a complete game while allowing just two earned runs and seven base runners in 9 innings. Verlander is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit is 7-0 in Verlander's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Detroit on the Money Line.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -133

With back-to-back wins, the Cards have seized control of this series. They have now won 8 of their last 10 against the Brewers, who are now 0-3 on the road in these playoffs. It's also worth noting that the Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog and 11-24 in their last 35 games as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 5-1 in Lohse's last 6 home starts. Look for the Cards to take a commanding 3-1 lead tonight.