Dave Price
1 Unit on SDSU/Air Force UNDER 59.5
We haven't seen these teams combined for more than 52 points in any of the last 3 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue as these run-heavy offenses keep the ball on the ground and the clock moving. SDSU is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 road games against a team with a winning record. We are only seeing an average of 48.5 total points scored in these games. SDSU is also 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 road games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points. We have seen just 49.6 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.
Rocketman
Milwaukee @ St Louis
Play: St Louis -133
Milwaukee is 1-6 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. St Louis has won 4 of their last 5 games. St Louis bullpen has a 3.38 ERA at home this year. Randy Wolf is 0-2 with a 10.43 ERA his last 3 starts. Wolf is averaging less than 5 innings pitched his last 3 starts and has gotten rocked allowing 27 hits and 17 earned runs in less than 15 innings. Kyle Lohse has a 2.75 ERA his last 3 starts. He has 17 strikeouts and only 2 walks during that time. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
WEST CAPPER
RANGERS @ TIGERS
I don’t give the Tigers much chance to come back from a 3-1 hole and win this series, but tonight’s game is squarely on Justin Verlander’s shoulders. Relievers Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit are unavailable for tonight’s game, so the season rest’s on the shoulder’s of the best pitcher in baseball. If there is an over/under bet on the amount of pitches Verlander will throw tonight, it wouldn’t matter the number, the bet would be over.
Verlander has been allowed 13 runs over his last 20 innings, but I don’t put much value in those recent numbers. He also didn’t have a single 1-2-3 inning in game one of this series, but with the rain delays he had trouble finding a routine. Some people are speculating it’s because he threw a MLB leading 251 innings during the regular season, but Justin Verlander is the best arm in the game for a reason. There is a reason this guy makes $12.75 million this year and will make $20 million next season, it’s to win a game just like tonight. I didn’t think Verlander would lose this entire postseason, and I certainly don’t think he will allow the Tigers to lose two consecutive starts.
The only knock on the Tigers for today’s game is the health of their hitters. Delmon Young has gone 0-for-8 since straining his oblique, Victor Martinez didn’t have good swings last night and only managed a groundball single in five trips. Alex Avila is hurting, and Dirks and Kelly are lefty bats that should be neutirilized by Wilson.
CJ Wilson threw a gem in game one against the Tigers, until the rain delay took him off his game. Wilson was very effective using his cutter to perfection to dominate the Tigers hitters in Arlington. His road numbers were much better than his home numbers, with his ERA much lower (2.31 opposed to 3.69 at home) and only allowing six homeruns on the road all season. He had a 2.56 ERA post all-star break and has been one of the best in the game down the stretch. He has struggled lately with command of his curveball, so getting ahead in the count with his cutter will be key.
I don’t see either offense scoring much today. The Tigers hitters are so banged up, and nobody has had great success in their career against Wilson. Delmon Young (3-for-15), Johnny Peralta (1-for-14), Victor Martinez (3-for-17) all have struggled. On the other hand, I think Verlander shows today why he is the best pitcher in baseball and limits the Rangers hitters. Kinsler (3-for-18), Napoli (3-for-15) have struggled historically against Verlander, while Hamilton and Beltre have enjoyed some decent success.
I love playing the Tigers at home in day games against lefties, and that’s the exact situation we have today. Verlander will throw 120+ pitches as the Tigers try to use him and Coke today, and we’ll be headed to Arlington. The public is all over the Tigers because it’s Verlander and a “must-win” situation, so the value isn’t completely there. Verlander hasn’t lost back-to-back starts since April, and he hasn’t lost at home since July. I expected this line to be around -120 (and if it was we would be going larger), but take the Tigers at -150 for 3***. Also take the under 7 runs for 1*.
BREWERS @ CARDINALS
The Brewers are in desperate need of a well pitched game on the road this series, and that falls into the hands of Randy Wolf. Wolf was awful in game four against the Diamondbacks, and has allowed 17 runs in his last 14 innings. Wolf went 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA on the road, but his strikeout and walk rates were much better on the road. He’ll need to mix his pitches early, and Wolf will be on a short leash tonight.
Kyle Lohse will be looking to provide a big win for the Cardinals, whose bullpen saved the game last night in a huge effort. Lohse had a solid year, posting a 3.39 ERA and was very effective early against the Phillies last round. In two home starts against the Brewers this year, he allowed just one run in 14 innings and has kept Prince Fielder quiet (6-for-26 with no home runs). Lohse doesn’t have dominating stuff, but relies heavily on his defense and throwing strikes with his changeup. He hasn’t pitched in 12 days, so his command could be off early.
Albert Pujols has absolutely dominated this series, and expect the Brewers to pitch around him the rest of the series. Holliday has eight strikeouts this postseason, and Berkman is hitting .214 this postseason. Essentially Pujols and David Freese have beaten the Brewers this series.
The Cardinals are playing with such high confidence and are at home, so generally I would lean toward the home team facing a soft lefty in this game. But something tells me this entire series changes hands tonight and Wolf surprises everyone with a solid performance. He hasn’t pitched in eight days, and the veteran lefty is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last two starts at Busch. Loshe is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts at Busch Stadium, so I think both pitchers surprise tonight and hold the offenses to less runs than expected. Both guys gave up 5+ runs in their last start, so this total is a little inflated due to public perception. We are going to play the Brewers (+120) for 1* unit and the under 8.5 runs for 1* unit. If the total goes to 9, then we’ll play the under 9 for 2** units.
Bettorsworld
3* San Diego State +7 over Air Force
San Diego State has cost us twice this year to the tune of two regular units (3* plays). We used them against TCU and lost, and we used them against Michigan, breaking the play up into three 1* plays, all of which lost.
The Aztecs didn't play up to the level we expected against Michigan and TCU. But things figure to get better tonight. SD ST is a NOW team. If they're going to do any damage in the Mountain West it had better be this year as Ryan Lindley will be gone and Ronnie Hillman is likely to follow, on to the NFL.
We were on the fence. So, what put us over the top? Lindley's seen his NFL prospects damaged the past two games against Michigan and TCU. Those were the quickest defenses he has seen this year and that's what NFL scouts are looking at.
But this week he gets an Air Force defense that's been hit by the injury bug. Air Force has 3 defensive linemen that started the year who are now injured with only one having the chance to come back this week, though it looks like he will sit (Ben Kopacka). Linebacker Patrick Hennessey is questionable with an injured thumb. They lost defensive back Chris Miller and they also lost a safety who was on the field opening day as a starter.
How hot of a prospect will Ryan Lindley be if he can't pick apart a depleted Air Force defense that was giving up big plays BEFORE the injuries?
The injury bug also hit the offensive side of the ball for Air Force. Tailback Darius Jones is likely OUT tonight and his two likely replacements have a total of 11 carries between them.
Despite the inexperience at Tailback, Air Force is going to get their yards. They always do. Yeah, San Diego State has had success against the option and coach Rocky Long had some success against Air Force while at New Mexico, but they'll get their yards and will put points on the board.
But numbers we like to use suggest this one to be a close game that comes down to the wire, and that's with both teams at full strength. The Air Force injuries put this play over the top. They should be the obvious better team on the field tonight and we're hoping we don't need the +7, but it's a nice cushion.
Grab it now because this line will drop. 3* San Diego State +7