Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 14,2010

Jim Feist

Panthers vs. Flames
Take: Over 5

Reason: On Sunday, the Florida Panthers dominated host Edmonton but never had a lead and lost 3-2. On Monday, the Panthers gave the Canucks all they could handle but two goals from Daniel Sedin and a stellar old-school performance from goalie Roberto Luongo led to a 2-1 defeat. The coach is upbeat, knowing they haven't played that badly. This is the end of a 3-game road trip for them, and they've had 2 full days to rest. Calgary has good offensive weapons, but ranks 23rd in the NHL in penalty killing. When these teams last met it was a 4-3 final and this total is too low. Play the Panthers/Flames Over the total.

Insider Angles

Kansas St. vs. Kansas

Now, we are normally partial toward hone underdogs in these weeknight games, but the Kansas State Wildcats look like a rare road favorite that actually has some value when they visit their in state rivals, the Kansas Jayhawks, Thursday night.

This line is depressed a bit because the whole country watched Nebraska dismantle this Wildcats team 48-13 last week, handing Kansas State their first loss of the year. Well, Nebraska is one of the best teams in the country and certainly the cream of the crop in the Big 12, and they will do that to a lot of teams this year.

Thus, we are willing to toss that effort with Kansas State dropping way down in class here to face a losing team. The Wildcats’ 4-0 start was accomplished with a powerful running game, as they are averaging an impressive 208.2 rushing yards per game on a very nice 4.9 yards per carry, and after watching Baylor carve up the Kansas defense for 244 rushing yards in their last game, we have little doubt Kansas State can do the same.

The 2-3 Wildcats are simply not a good football team this year. Yes, they had one shining moment by upsetting Georgia Tech despite allowing 291 rushing yards in that game, but their only other win was vs. a New Mexico State team that is one of the worst in the country, and one of their three losses came here at home 6-3 vs. North Dakota State, which is an FCS team!

Kansas is allowing 187.6 rushing yards per game, which plays right into the hands of the Kansas State strength. Look for the Wildcats to rebound from that Nebraska debacle with a rather safe road win here.

Pick: Kansas State -3

Matt Fargo

Kansas St. Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks
Pick: Kansas St. Wildcats

We played against Kansas St. last Thursday night at home and this week we will play on the Wildcats on the road. Last week the situation simply was not a good one for the Wildcats as the team speed simply could not keep up with the Huskers but this week it is a totally different matchup. Kansas St. was undefeated heading into that game and it good a pretty big dose of reality on its home field. Tonight however it is a different story as they will be better prepared for their in-state rival. While Kansas St. got pounded by Nebraska, the Jayhawks are coming off an even worse loss against Baylor. Kansas was defeated by 48 points as it was outgained by a whopping 408 total yards as it lost the yardage battle 678-270. The problem against Baylor was a lack of team speed on defense and it was the second time this year it was exposed. In the loss to Southern Mississippi, the defense again had trouble stopping a dual-threat quarterback who had deep-play capabilities. The Wildcats strong running game still managed 180 yards on 44 carries (4.1 ypc) which is a very solid average against Nebraska. Thursday they will be facing a Kansas defense that is allowing 187.6 ypg on 4.7 ypc and if last year was any indication, Kansas St. will find great success again. The Wildcats ran for 266 yards on 43 carries (6.2 ypc) highlighted by a huge effort from Daniel Thomas who rushed for 185 yards on 24 carries (7.7 ypc). He has been held down the last two games but that changes tonight. The Kansas St. defense was annihilated last week against Nebraska and again, it came down to team speed. It was easily the worst effort of the season as it was only the second time the unit allowed more than 344 yards. Kansas meanwhile has had only one game this season where it gained more than 320 total yards on offense and that was against New Mexico St., the 118th ranked defense in the country. Kansas is ranked 89th in the country in total yards and 100th in scoring as consistency has been lacking. Making matters worse, the strength of the unit, the offensive line, continues to get hit with bad luck. The Jayhawks suffered another injury along the line as during the bye week, starting guard Trevor Marrongelli suffered a knee injury and will be out for the remainder of the season, joining Jeff Spikes on the shelf. Sophomore Duane Zlatnik, a tackle, is slated to step in for Marrongelli, while redshirt freshman Riley Spencer would move up to the sixth spot in the rotation. Kansas St. falls into a solid situation based on last week’s result. Play on road teams that are coming off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season and now playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Head coach Bill Snyder has thrived in a bounceback role as the Wildcats are 10-0 ATS in their 10 games following a loss by three or more touchdowns to a conference foe. 3* Kansas St. Wildcats

ready to hang myself,2 nights in a row i went against what i liked on got cracked. so i figure go with my own pick tonight k state, & over 0-3 on week, not sure on s fl or w vir came some one convince me, please

Ben Burns

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers dominated the Lightning recently, going a perfect 5-0 the last five meetings in the series. They won those games by a combined score of 28-8. With the schedule in their favor, the Flyers should be able to continue that dominance here.

The Lightning are off an OT victory at Montreal, last night. While that was a solid win, note that they're a money-burning 70-117 the past 180+ times that they played the second of back to back games. Note that TB is also a dismal 14-39 (-17.3) the L53 times it played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5.

The Flyers, who haven't played for a couple of days, were a profitable 20-11 (+6.6) the past two seasons, when playing with two day's off in between games. Consider laying the wood.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Kansas State -3

After 3 straight losses in this rivalry, the K-State Wildcats broke through with a 17-10 win last year. Motivated by a terrible performance against Nebraska last week, I expect the Wildcats to be ready to make it consecutive wins over Kansas tonight. Kansas has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be hungry to avenge last year's loss to the Wildcats, but I'm just not sold on this team. K-State has quality wins over UCLA, Iowa State and UCF, while Kansas has bad losses to North Dakota State, So. Miss and Baylor. It is also worth noting that Kansas is getting outscored by 7.4 points per game on the season, despite playing a much weaker schedule than its in-state rivals. The favorite is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series and the Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two teams. Plus, the Jayhawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Lastly, the Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Take K-State.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +1.65 over PHILADELPHIA

Make no mistake, the Philadelphia Flyers are good, very good in fact and they have to be considered a real threat to go deep into the playoffs. Having said that, this is not about wagering against the Flyers. This one is all about taking back this sweet tag on the Bolts, this year’s most improved team by a country mile. The Lightning looked extremely sharp in its opening night win against the Thrashers and they looked even sharper last night in Montreal’s home opener. Pay no attention to the 4-3 final. The Lightning dominated play and quadrupled the Habs in scoring chances and outshot them 47-27. Only the goaltending of Carey Price made the score close. This is a very strong team with heart, grit and four good lines. They’ve now scored nine goals in its two games and after a horrendous and frustrating season a year ago the Bolts are rejuvenated, they’re working hard and they can’t wait to get back on the ice. They may not win this game but they are tremendously undervalued here and it’s for that reason they’re a must play. Play: Tampa Bay +1.65 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +1.35 over CALGARY

Speaking of undervalued clubs, one need not look further than the Florida Panthers. Florida is 0-2 after opening the year with losses in Edmonton and Vancouver. There is no substitution for watching the games and the Florida/Edmonton game was probably the most lopsided game of the year in terms of dominating play and it wasn’t in the Oilers favor. The Panthers should have been up by about five goals after two periods but luck just wasn’t on their side, as the Oilers scored on three of its first five shots and only had seven shots on net through the first two periods. The Panthers were constantly buzzing around the net. In its next game in Vancouver, they were certainly not outplayed and could’ve easily won that game too. The Panthers are a very good team but they’re not recognized as such and they definitely have a chance to get off the mattress against a very average Flames squad. Calgary’s stock went way up after they beat the Kings in its last game and it was an impressive performance. The Flames lost its opener 4-0 in Edmonton and they have the Oilers on deck Saturday night. This game is sandwiched between that win over L.A. and Edmonton on Saturday and don’t be surprised to see the Flames flat tonight. Even at their very best, Calgary is vulnerable and in no way do they warrant this price. Also note that they seldom see one another and in fact, since ’04, Calgary and Florida have met just five times. The Panthers are winless, they’ll be hungrier, they’re most definitely undervalued and they’re in a much more favorable spot than the Flames. Play: Florida +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +1.02 over NASHVILLE

Both these teams are 2-0 but the difference is that the Preds played last night in Chicago. Normally that wouldn’t be such a big deal but the whole Nashville team stated before the game how they wanted to put forth a strong effort and after they won they stated how badly they wanted revenge on the Blackhawks after Chicago eliminated them from the playoffs last April. The Preds played hard like they always do and they’re never an easy out but the Blue Notes are well-rested and they’ve looked very sharp thus far. In its 5-1 win over Anaheim they dominated play from start to finish. They also looked very good in its season opening victory over Philly. The Blues have allowed a total of 44 shots through two games -- they've taken 79 themselves -- but the quality scoring chances have been limited to a handful at best. The Blues are making life very tough for opponents in their end of the ice with strong back-checking from its forwards and clean, crisp passes out of the zone. Jaroslav Halak in net has really solidified this team defensively and has given the whole club a big boost of confidence. Said Alex Steen, “We've got a good buzz. Good pace, good energy to our game. That's the key for us; moving our feet, keeping that pace high during the course of a game." We couldn’t agree more. Play: St. Louis +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

Tony George

Kansas / Kansas St. Under 50

KU at home tonight in the Battle of the Sunflower State is a VERY SMALL LEAN on the side. This is a tough call but the last time the Jayhawks back was against the wall, they beat up on then ranked Georgia Tech in here. K State has issues stopping the run and although neither QB is all that good, I like frosh Jordan Webb at home in this one and for Turner Gill's boys to somehow eek out a win in what might be a lower scoring game than you think. The Under 50 also looks a little tasty here because both teams strength is running the ball, and that eats clock.

Doug Upstone

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Play: Kansas State Wildcats -3

Last Thursday, Kansas State ran into Nebraska juggernaut and was whipped 48-13. That was the Wildcats first loss of the year and next up is in-state rival Kansas. K-State coach Bill Snyder has always placed a great deal of value on this matchup and is perfect 10-0 ATS after losing by three or more touchdowns to a conference rival. The Jayhawks are struggling in their transition with new coach Turner Gill and are 2-3 on the season after being buried by Baylor 55-7.

For Thursday night, Play On a road teams off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team. (27-6 ATS L10Y)

Jack Jones

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Play: Kansas State -3

I'll back the better team tonight in this in-state rivalry between Kansas State and Kansas. Sure, the Jayhawks are playing at home, but this is a Kansas team that is clearly in rebuilding mode. Kansas is 2-3 this season, with a 3-6 home loss to North Dakota State, a 16-31 road loss at Southern Miss and a 7-55 road loss at Baylor last week. Kansas State is 4-1, with impressive wins over UCLA, Iowa State and UCF. Their only loss came to Nebraska, a national title contender.

K-State is 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS in their last 18 meetings with Kansas. The Wildcats are built to win now, with a team that is capable of challenging Nebraska and Missouri for tops in the Big 12 North. They have a Heisman Trophy candidate at tailback in Daniel Thomas. He is in line for a huge game against a Kansas defense that is allowing 188 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. The Jayhawks have allowed more than 200 yards rushing in three games thus far. Kansas is 1-8 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. K-State is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Kansas State Thursday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on S. Florida/W. Virginia UNDER 45

South Florida has played to the Under in 3 straight, and I expect this trend to continue. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Both games played at West Virginia have finished Under the number during this span. Diving into the numbers, we find that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (W VIRGINIA) after a cover as a double digit favorite, in October games, are 47-12 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing 39.9 points scored on average in these contests. Also, plays Under on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (W VIRGINIA) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, in October games, are 35-7 the last 5 seasons, including 4-1 already this year. We are seeing an average of 39.2 points in these games. I'm taking the Under tonight.

Tom Freese

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia is 24-8 their 32 games as home favorites. The Flyers are 5-0 their last 5 meetings with the Lighting. Philadelphia are 9-1 their last 10 games vs. Eastern Conference teams. Tampa Bay is 54-112-11 their last 177 games with no rest. The Lightning are 25-63 their last 88 games as underdogs. Tampa Bay 38-80-7 their last 125 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%.

Wunderdog

Lightning vs. Flyers
Play: Under 5½

The Flyers are very tough defensively, particularly at home. In their last 13 home games last season, the Flyers allowed just 2 goals per game on average. Through three games this season, no one has penetrated the net more than twice against them. Dating back to last season, they are 29-18 UNDER at home when coming off an OVER as they are here. I like the UNDER in this one.

Dave Price

1 Unit Kansas Jayhawks +3

his is K-State's first true road game of the season, and we won't soon forget that a perhaps better Wildcats squad went 0-5 in true road games last season. This is a big rivalry game, and the Jayhawks certainly have the edge playing at home and off a bye week when you consider that the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and Kansas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a bye week. It is also worth mentioning that the Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Take Kansas and the points.