Sean Murphy
Kansas St. @ Kansas
PICK: Kansas +3
I've been considering this game all week, but was waiting for the best possible line value to pull the trigger. I think we have that now, with 3's widely available. You probably won't do worse than that number by waiting it out even longer, and may even be able to find a plus money return on it before kickoff.
This is a tough spot for Kansas State. The Wildcats were jacked up for last Thursday's national spotlight game against Nebraska, but fell flat in a 48-13 beatdown. Now they make the short trip to Lawrence to face a Jayhawks squad that has been wildly inconsistent at times, but has shown that it can win a big game at home, taking down Georgia Tech earlier this season.
Turner Gill's Jayhawks have an extra advantage here in that they're coming off a bye week. A little extra time to prepare for what has become a fairly one-dimensional Wildcats offense can't hurt.
On paper it doesn't appear that either team has a significant advantage over the other at quarterback, but I'll gladly take Jayhawks redshirt freshman Jordan Webb over Wildcats QB Carson Coffman.
Over the last three weeks, we've seen significant regression from Coffman, as he's thrown for just two touchdowns and three interceptions. His overall numbers were padded by a 280-yard, three touchdown day against FCS squad Missouri State earlier this season.
The fact is, the Wildcats have to pin their hopes almost entirely on RB Daniel Thomas. He an exceptional talent - most believe he's NFL-ready - but can he win a game for an otherwise mediocre Kansas State squad in its first true road test of the season? I'm not so sure.
Kansas State hasn't won a game in Lawrence since 2002, and it's not as if the Wildcats haven't had their opportunities. They were a three-point favorite here back in 2004, but fell by a 31-28 score. Their last two meetings here have been no contest, with the Jayhawks winning by 31 and 19 points.
There are worse things you can do than back a desperate home underdog in a nationally-televised weeknight rivalry game. Look for a close one all the way, and don't be surprised if the Jayhawks are able to pull it out. Take Kansas.