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Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 15,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

(8) Cincinnati (5-0, 2-2 ATS) at (21) South Florida (5-0, 2-1 ATS)

The only two Big East teams ranked in the Top 25 square off in an important league showdown, as Cincinnati visits the Bulls at Raymond James Stadium.

The Bearcats, who are in the Top 10 for the first time in school history, have won four of their five games by double digits, including a 37-13 rout of Miami (Ohio) on Oct. 3. However, Cincinnati failed to cover as a hefty 29½-point road chalk in that contest after coming up short as a 17-point home favorite in a 28-20 home win over Fresno State the previous week. In the win over Fresno, the Bearcats actually got outgained 443-357 and possessed the ball for slightly more than 16 minutes.

After its stunning 17-7 upset at Florida State (14-point road underdog), South Florida managed to avoid the classic letdown with a 34-20 destruction of Syracuse as a 7½-point road chalk on Oct. 3. The Bulls finished on the short end of a 344-333 yardage discrepancy, but the defense forced seven turnovers, picking off Syracuse QB Greg Paulus five times.

Cincinnati has won three in a row and four of five against South Florida, going 5-0 ATS along the way. Last year, the Bearcats rolled 24-10 as a 1½-point home pup, and in their last trip to Tampa Bay, they forced eight turnovers and blocked a punt, but still barely escaped with a 38-33 victory as a five-point ‘dog. Since 2003, the home team is 5-1 SU 4-2 ATS in this rivalry.

Despite losing the yardage battle to Fresno State, Cincinnati is outgaining its opponents by an average of 152 yards per game (468-316), and South Florida has outgained its competition by 150 ypg (413-263). The Bearcats are putting up 42 points per outing and yielding 13.8, while South Florida is averaging 37 ppg and allowing 9.4.

Bearcats senior quarterback Tony Pike has thrust himself into Heisman Trophy consideration by completing 67 percent of his throws for 1,492 yards (298.4 passing ypg) with 13 touchdowns against just three interceptions in 173 pass attempts. Since the start of last season, Pike has passed for 3,899 yards with a 32-14 TD-to-INT ratio. This year, he’s helped by a rushing attack that’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

The Bulls’ ground-oriented offense is churning out 191 rushing ypg (4.8 per carry), with versatile freshman QB B.J. Daniels accounting for 291 total rushing yards (6.1 per carry) and three TDs. Daniels, who took over the offense after senior Matt Grothe suffered a season-ending injury prior to the Florida State win, is also completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 602 yards, six TD passes and just two INTs.

In failing to cover the last two weeks, the Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, and they’re also 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 as a road chalk and 2-5 ATS in their last seven October outings (though one of those October covers came against USF last year). On the flip side, Cincy carries positive pointspread trends of 5-1 in Big East play, 11-5-1 after a bye, 5-2 on Thursday and 15-6-1 against winning teams.

Like the Bearcats, South Florida has failed to cash in five of its last seven in October, but otherwise the Bulls are on ATS surges of 5-1 overall, 3-1 at home, 5-0 as a underdog, 4-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-1 after a bye week.

Cincinnati has topped the total in four straight games after a bye, five of its last seven on the highway and four of its last five in Big East play. However, the ‘Cats are on “under” sprees of 13-3-1 in October and 8-0 when playing in the Thursday spotlight. For South Florida, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall, 7-1 as an underdog and 6-0 against winning teams, but eight of the team’s last 10 lined games at Raymond James Stadium have gone over the total.

Finally, the under is 4-2 in the six meetings between these schools this decade (2-1 at South Florida).

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

NLCS

Philadelphia (3-1) at L.A. Dodgers (3-0)

The Phillies and Dodgers meet for the right to go to the World Series for the second straight year and the fifth time since 1977 as they kick off the best-of-7 National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles will hand the ball to Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79 ERA), while the defending champs counter with last year’s playoff hero Cole Hamels (10-12, 4.39) in a battle of left-handers.

Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 ninth-inning deficit Monday in Colorado, scoring three times with two outs to steal a 5-4 victory and oust the Rockies in four games in the best-of-5 divisional series. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven playoff contests dating to last year’s run to the World Series title, and they’re on additional surges of 5-1 in road playoff games, 7-2 in the opening game of any series, 9-2 as an underdog, 10-2 against the N.L. West and 30-11 after a day off.

The Dodgers pulled off a stunning sweep of the Cardinals in the opening round, defeating the N.L. Central champs 5-3 and 3-2 at home, then rolling to a 5-1 series-clinching road victory Saturday. Los Angeles also won its final two regular-season games and thus enters the NLCS on a five-game winning streak (4-0 at home), which comes on the heels of a five-game losing skid. L.A., which had the best record in the National League this season, has also won seven straight games on Thursday.

The Phillies ousted Los Angeles in five games in last year’s NLCS, but the run differential was only 25-20. Going back to last August, Philadelphia is 11-5 against L.A. (4-3 at Dodger Stadium). However, this season, Joe Torre’s squad won four of the seven meetings (2-2 at home). In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.

Hamels, who on the 2009 NLCS and World Series MVPs, struggled in a 5-4 Game 2 loss at home to the Rockies last Wednesday, allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings. Hamels is 0-3 in his last three starts and the Phillies have dropped four straight behind the San Diego native, who has allowed 17 runs (all earned) over 21 2/3 innings (7.06 ERA) during this four-start stretch. In addition to coming up empty in Hamels’ last four outings overall, the Phillies are 1-5 in his last six on the road, 1-4 in his last five as an underdog and 1-6 in his last seven against opponents with a winning record.

Hamels was just 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 15 road efforts this season, but one of those victories came at Dodger Stadium on June 4 when he pitched a complete-game three-hitter in a 3-0 decision. Hamels has owned the Dodgers in his career, going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six starts, giving up two runs or fewer in each outing while pitching exactly seven innings in the first five contests prior to the complete-game win on June 4. Hamels, who beat the Dodgers in Games 1 and 5 last year in the NLCS, has 39 strikeouts and eight walks allowed in 44 innings versus Los Angeles.

Kershaw got a no-decision in his first-ever postseason start in Game 2 of the NLDS, holding the Cardinals to two runs in 6 2/3 innings, with the Dodgers eventually rallying for a stunning 3-2 walk-off victory. While Kershaw surrendered nine hits, he only walked one and pitched out of trouble on several occasions. Going back to Aug. 25, Kershaw has made six starts, giving up two earned runs or fewer each time out while posting a 2.25 ERA with 38 strikeouts against 11 walks in 36 innings. Still, L.A. is just 3-9 in his last 12 trips to the mound overall, 2-5 in his last seven at home, 2-8 in his last 10 as a favorite, 1-4 in his last five as a home chalk and 0-5 in his last five when opening a series.

Including his outing versus St. Louis last Thursday, Kershaw now has sparkling 1.89 ERA in 17 home starts this year, giving up just two home runs in 95 innings. However, he has just a 3-4 record to show for his home efforts, with the Dodgers going 9-8 as they’ve supported him with an average of just 3.3 runs per outing. The 22-year-old faced the Phillies twice each of the last two years, going 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA. In the two outings this year, Kershaw allowed six runs (all earned) on eight hits with seven walks and 10 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings, losing 5-3 at home and 3-0 in Philly.

Behind Hamels, the Phillies are on “under” stretches of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 12-3-2 on Thursday. Likewise, with Kershaw toeing the rubber, the Dodgers are on “under” tears of 7-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 on Thursday and 17-5-1 against teams with a winning record.

As a team, the Phillies carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 12-3-2 overall, 12-2 on the road, 4-1 following a victory and 4-1-1 in the opening game of a series. For the Dodgers, the over is on runs of 5-2-1 at home, 3-0-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1-1 after an off day, but the under is 5-2-1 in their last eight overall and 3-1-1 in their last four on Thursday.

In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 3-1-1 overall and 4-1 at Dodger Stadium. However, in last year’s playoff series, the over was 3-2 (1-1 at Dodger Stadium).

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 6:23 am
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DUNKEL INDEX

NCAA Football

Cincinnati at South Florida
The Bulls look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road favorite. South Florida is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+3)

Game 105-106: Cincinnati at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 97.788; South Florida 103.472
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 5 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+3); Over

NHL

Tampa Bay at Ottawa
The Lightning look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is coming off a 4-1 loss to Pittsburgh and is just 3-7 in its last 10 games following a home loss by 3 or more goals. Tampa Bay is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135)

Game 51-52: San Jose at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.414; Washington 11.468
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+120); Over

Game 53-54: Colorado at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.684; Montreal 11.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Under

Game 55-56: Tampa Bay at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.663; Ottawa 11.101
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135); Under

Game 57-58: Los Angeles at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.576; Detroit 12.144
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+180); Over

Game 59-60: Chicago at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.340; Nashville 10.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Under

Game 61-62: St. Louis at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.358; Phoenix 11.727
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Over

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 6:50 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati U vs. South Florida
Play: Under 49

The Bearcats have gone under in 16 of 19 October games over the years and have several solid under indicators that apply to them tonight. On Thursday nights Cincinnati has been an under team going under all 8 times. When installed as road favorites of 3 or less they have cashed 5 of 6 unders and 12 of 15 times when the line is +3 to -3 overall. Both teams have solid defenses. This should be a lower scoring game.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 6:51 am
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LT Profits

Los Angeles Dodgers Series

The Los Angeles Dodgers surprised us by going through the great St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff so easily, and they are now our choice to advance to the World Series by defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS.

This is a rematch of the 2008 NLCS, when the Phillies advanced in five games, but there is a big difference between last year and this season. Remember that Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Joe Blanton were all pitching out of their minds last year, and Brad Lidge did not blow a save all year.

However, this Philadelphia staff is simply not that intimidating. Hamels had a very disappointing season, and he was the only Phillie to lose a game in the NLDS vs. the Colorado Rockies, and Lidge went from not blowing any saves to leading the Major Leagues in blown saves this season. Other than the newly acquired Cliff Lee, who is truly a stud, the rest of the Philadelphia staff does not really impress us.

As for the Dodgers, sure, their starters do not look as good as they did earlier in the year, but Clayton Kershaw has looked great since returning from his injury, Vicente Padilla has been a pleasant surprise and opening day starter Hiroki Kuroda should be back for this series. On top of that, the Dodgers excellent bullpen ERA of 3.18 was the best in the Major Leagues by a wide margin, as the San Francisco Giants finished well back in second at 3.50.

Remember that pitching means everything in a short series and the Dodgers appear to be better equipped at this time, unless Hamels suddenly rediscovers his 2008 form. Game 1 of this series this becomes more critical that usual, and if the Dodgers can prevail at home vs. Hamels, we will love our chances of cashing this ticket.

Dodgers in 6

Pick: Dodgers -120

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 6:53 am
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EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -$137

I'm not sold on Philadelphia starting pitcher Cole Hamels. Hamels has hardly pitched like an ace of the staff this season. I would not be surprised at all to see the Dodgers get to him early and often. The Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw has been lights out at home this season and should do a good job against all of the left handed hitting of Philadelphia. The Phillies hit just .214 against the Dodgers in seven games this season which was Philadelphia's second lowest average against any NL team this year. I look for the Dodgers to take game one of this NLDS. Play on Los Angeles.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 6:56 am
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HENTAI SPORTS

Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls
Prediction : UNDER 48.5

The Bearcats have gone under in 16 of 19 October games over the years and have several solid under indicators that apply to them tonight. On Thursday nights Cincinnati has been an under team going under all 8 times. When installed as road favorites of 3 or less they have cashed 5 of 6 unders and 12 of 15 times when the line is +3 to -3 overall. Both teams have solid defenses. This should be a lower scoring game. For those interested in the side I have a Double Angle Power stat that applies to tonights game,plus a big bases sequence scenario side. Jump on and cash out big tonight in Big east Play.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 6:57 am
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JIM FEIST

LOS ANGELES KINGS / DETROIT RED WINGS
TAKE UNDER

The Kings have had their defense going during their recent 4-game win streak, allowing 9 runs those 4 games. That included a 2-1 road victory at the New York Islanders. Detroit is getting back to basics, winning 2 of the last 3 games with defense, allowing 2 goals apiece in the 2 wins (both under the total). This shapes up as a defensive duel, as well. Play the Kings/Red Wings Under the total.

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:04 am
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Jeff Benton

Cincinnati -2 at SOUTH FLORIDA

For Thursday’s free play, I’ll head to college football and play the Cincinnati-South Florida game UNDER the total.

The first two college football contests this week have played to the under … and all three midweek games last week stayed low … as did four of the five midweek games the previous week … as did both midweek games the week before that … as did one of two the week before that … as did both games the week before that … as did five of the six midweek games way back in Week 1.

That’s right: The under is 19-3 – 19-3! – in midweek college football games this season. Astounding. Why will tonight’s Big East battle between the Bearcats and Bulls keep that “under” streak going? Because as prolific as both offenses are, the defenses are better. South Florida is giving up just 9.4 points and 263 total yards per game this year, and the Bulls have surrendered a grand total of five touchdowns in five games (and one of those came in the fourth quarter of a 34-20 blowout at Syracuse two Saturdays ago when South Florida was already up 34-13). Before that game, the Bulls had held seven straight opponents to 14 points or less.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati has held all five of its opponents to 20 points or less, giving up averages of 13.8 points and 316 yards per game, including just 2.8 rushing yards per carry. Going back to the start of last season, the Bearcats have allowed more than 21 points just four times in 19 games.

The under is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools, with those three “unders” featuring point totals of 47, 29 and 34. Throw in the fact that the under is 8-0 in Cincinnati’s last eight Thursday night games, 13-3-1 in its last 16 in October, 5-1 in South Florida’s last six overall and 7-1 in South Florida’s last eight as an underdog, there’s only one way to look at this game, and that’s UNDER the total.

4♦ UNDER

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:13 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Cincinnati -2 at SOUTH FLORIDA

Cincinnati and South Florida are pretty evenly matched, but there is one big difference between them.

Bearcats senior QB Tony Pike is one of the nation's best, completing 67 percent of his passes for 1,492 yards and 13 touchdowns with just three interceptions.

South Florida, on the other hand, is relying on freshman QB B.J. Daniels to head its attack after senior Matt Grothe went down for the season earlier this year. Daniels has led the Bulls to wins over Florida State and Syracuse, but his inexperience is going to prove costly against a talented Bearcats team.

The Bulls possess one of the best defenses in the nation, but they did last year as well, and Pike shredded them for 281 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-10 Cincinnati victory on Oct. 30.

The Bearcats, who are third in the nation in scoring at 43.2 points per game, haven't scored less than 28 points in any game this season, and they haven't allowed more than 20.

Cincinnati is 15-6-1 ATS against teams with winning records, while South Florida is 3-9 vs. winning teams.

The Bearcats have covered the last five times these teams have met, with straight-up wins in the last three. With the experienced Pike at the control of Cincinnati's offense, a fourth straight win over the Bulls is going to happen. Take the Bearcats to win and cover the points.

4♦ CINCINNATI

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:14 am
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Philadelphia at LOS ANGELES

Comp play UNDER in the college football game last night, 45-33-4 free play run.

Very interested in the pitching matchup in this first game of the NLCS, as we feel you are going to see a pair of southpaws just mowing the hitters down.

Cole Hamels beat LA twice in last year's championship series, and he did so by working 14 innings of 3 run ball. During the regular season Hamels is 2-0 in 4 starts against Los Angeles with just 5 runs allowed in 30 innings of work.

Could be hard for the Dodgers to muster some runs this evening, even at home!

As for the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw sports a season ERA of 2.82, and a home ERA of 1.89.

Los Angeles is on a 6-1-1 UNDER clip their last 8 games dating back to the regular season, and we have a strong feeling that run will be 7-1-1 after this baseball game is finished.

Play on the UNDER in Game 1 of the NLCS.

4♦ UNDER

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:14 am
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Karl Garrett

Philadelphia at LOS ANGELES

I have to believe that the runs are going to be at a premium at Dodger Stadium this Thursday night as Cole Hamels opposes Clayton Kershaw.

Hamels has been a "Dodger-killer" in his young career with the Phillies, as he is 2-0 over his last 4 regular season starts against LA, allowing just 5 earned runs in 30 innings of work.

Hamels also dealt the Dodgers a pair of postseason losses last October, working 14 full while allowing 3 runs. Clearly, Hamels has something going on against Los Angeles.

As for Kershaw, all he did was hang a 2.82 season ERA on the board, and an even lower 1.89 ERA at home this year.

The Dodgers played 2 of their 3 opening round games UNDER the posted total, and are on a 6-1-1 UNDER clip their last 8 games overall.

These teams did stay UNDER in 3 of the 4 regular season series meetings in the City of Angels, and will stay LOW here tonight.

2♦ UNDER

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:16 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Philadelphia at L.A. DODGERS -135

I've nailed six straight FREE winners for my clients and today I'm making it seven in a row as I play the Dodgers at home in Game 1 to get the win against the Phillies in this NLCS.

It’s been a little wild for the Phillies who have been on the road a lot lately. They went to Colorado after dropping Game 2 of that series and had a game postponed on Saturday only to have to play late into the night on Sunday and then again on Monday.

Now they are in Southern California to take on the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Los Angeles has coasted down the stretch of the regular season and even in their three-game sweep of the Cardinals, it looked like the Dodgers weren’t really putting 100 percent into it.

This Dodgers’ squad is scary good. If everything is going well in the batting lineup and the bullpen, they might be the best team in baseball. They get great contribution from everyone in the starting lineup and each night it seems like somebody new is stepping up in a big way. Plus throw in the experience they gained in last year’s playoff loss to the Phillies, and they are ready to pounce.

Los Angeles has a little revenge on its mind after last year’s NLCS saw the Phillies oust the Dodgers in five games. So today the Dodgers are going with young lefty Clayton Kershaw (10-12, 4.39) over veteran Randy Wolfe.

Kershaw pitched Game 2 of the NLDS and allowed two runs in 6.2 innings, getting a no-decision in the Dodgers 3-2 victory. He’s allowed two runs or less in each of his last six starts and this guy has a 1.89 ERA in 17 home starts.

Cole Hamels (10-12, 4.38 ERA) is on the hill in the opener for the Phillies, but he took the only loss for them in the NLDS against Colorado, giving up four runs on seven hits in five innings of work. The lefty was just 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA away from Philly this season. And yes, I know he dominated the playoffs last year, but this isn’t last year’s Los Angeles team.

I think there is a reason the Dodgers basically led wire to wire. This team can play and do everything else to frustrate and eventually beat the opposition. Good pitching, timely hitting, great bullpen and great defense. I’ll play Los Angeles at home in this one.

4♦ L.A. DODGERS

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:17 am
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Chris Jordan

Philadelphia vs. Los Angeles, Series

Take the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

Alright, so in talking with a national reporter for the largest sports-entertainment network, we agreed on just one thing (she likes the Phillies) ... if the Dodgers did what they did to St. Louis' Top 3 hurlers in the rotation, what happens when Philly can't send Lee 'til Game 3, and has to use a struggling Cole Hamels in the opener?

Honestly, I'd much rather depend on a team that dominated arguably the hottest team on the junior circuit in the first round, than a team that needed to bail out its starters in the divisional series round.

The Dodgers, however they've found a way to do it, looked like the team from the first half of the season, dominating the Cardinals in every aspect.

And when you have a manager like Joe Torre, who knows how to work the rotation and knows how to utilize a bullpen - per hitter, I might add, not just per inning - it's really difficult to argue against him with the talent the has.

It almost seems like destiny to find the Dodgers and Yankees one series from the World Series, but sure enough it looks like it will happen to me.

I'm going to bank on the Dodgers to do their part, based on a balanced lineup that includes a solid middle pack of hitters, based on a rotation that is solid up and down and based on a much better bullpen and based on a tremendous bench that is deeper at the plate and that has much flexibility defensively.

Dodgers win this series, likely in 6 or 7.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS - SERIES BET

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:17 am
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Stephen Nover

Philadelphia vs. Los Angeles

I'm siding with the gritty Phillies to win this series. The Phillies beat the Dodgers in the NCLS last year to reach the World Series.

Nothing has changed. The Phillies still are the superior team. They know how to win and have proven big-game experience having captured the World Series.

Philadelphia tied with the Angels for the best road record in baseball at 50-33. The Phillies have a huge home edge playing this late in the year against a Southern California opponent.

The Dodgers lack the starting pitching to offset the Phillies' strong offense. The Phillies had four of the league's top 15 home run leaders and also have several base-stealing threats. The Dodgers' big bat is Manny Ramirez, and he hasn't been nearly as good since being suspended for 50 games.

Cliff Lee gives the Phillies the best starting pitcher.

The Dodgers do have a strong bullpen, but I don't think it's as great an edge as being made out. It was a huge confidence boost for Brad Lidge getting the final out against the Rockies.

3♦ PHILLIES IN SERIES

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:18 am
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Tony Weston

Bad call with Boise State last night, barely. The Broncos give up a 55-yard TD pass in the fourth quarter to Tulsa and that’s the end of that.

Well, luckily it’s over and I can focus on tonight’s winner. In a battle of Big East unbeatens I’m taking Cincinnati on the road at South Florida.

The Bearcats are laying about 2 1/2, 3 points tonight and will win by at least a touchdown.

Coming into this game Cincinnati has beaten its opponents by an average of nearly 30 points per game (28.2), outscoring teams on average 42-13.8. On the road this year the Bearcats have beaten their opponents by an average of 22 points per game.

Also keep in mind that the Bearcats have gone 5-1 ATS their last 6 games in conference and have gone 11-5-1 ATS their last 17 games coming off a bye week. The team has also gone 15-6-1 ATS its last 22 games against teams with winning records.

The Bulls, on the other hand, have covered in just 2 of their last 7 games in October and are just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games against teams with winning records.

Most importantly, however, is what these two have done against each other. The Bearcats are on a 5-0 ATS run against South Florida, having beaten the Bulls in 4 of those meetings SU. Cincinnati is also on a 3-0 SU run against the Bulls, beating them by an average of 12 points per game, including last year’s 24-10 win as a 1 1/2 point underdog.

The Bearcats will do it again tonight and make it 6 straight covers against South Florida.

3♦ CINCINNATI

 
Posted : October 15, 2009 7:18 am
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