Craig Davis
Tonight's free play winner, just like last night's free play winner, is on the Dodgers to win the series with Philly. The defending champs looked good in cleaning up the Rockies in four games, but their pitching (especially Cole Hamels) needs improvement. That's where I think the difference is in this series. Los Angeles completely outpitched the Cardinals (including Wainwright and Carpenter) and cruised to a three-game sweep. Their top five hitters are hitting everything right now, the defense is playing top notch, and the starting pitching is on fire. Even closer Jonathan Broxton looks untouchable. Los Angeles was very close to getting to the Series last year, so it's not like they're coming into this never having faced this type of pressure. They know all too well how much is at stake here, and I think they finally have the confidence to get it done. We're either going to see an All-California World Series or a classic Dodgers/Yankees World Series... either way, it's going to be a good one. Play the Dodgers to win the series with Philly.
2♦ DODGERS SERIES
Hollywood Sports
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game 1 of the NLCS brings two of the upper tier offenses in all of baseball. The Dodgers average 4.81 runs per game along with a .758 OPS that both rank 11th in all of baseball. The Phillies average 5.06 runs per game with a .781 OPS -- ranking 4th and 7th in all of baseball. With a run line installed at 7.5, there is just too much offense between these two teams for that number to stand. The Dodgers are coming off a 5-1to close out their series with the Cardinals and the Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight Dodgers' games where they held their opponent to two or less runs. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Dodgers' last eight home games as well 8-3-1 in the Dodgers last twelve games versus teams with winning records. The Over is 4-1 the last five road games when the Phillies were the underdog as well as 4-1-1 in the last five playoff games when the Phillies were the underdog. Finally, the Over is 12-3-2 in the Phillies last seventeen games overall.
Play on: Over
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cincinnati at South Florida
The Bearcats have gone Under the total in eight straight Thursday games and are on a 16-3 Under run in October games. Three of the past four meetings between these teams have gone Under the total. Cincinnati has gone Under in its last three games Overall and neither of these teams allow opponents to run the ball as USF has yielded just 147 yards overland in its last three games. The Bearcats have also held three opponents to 54 yards or less in three of five games this season.
Play on: Under
LT Profits
St. Louis Blues @ Phoenix Coyotes
The Phoenix Coyotes have actually exceeded expectations with their 3-2 start, and they have done so with a trapping, defensive style that has been conducive to Unders. Look for that to continue when they host the St. Louis Blues tonight.
In fact, since opening the season with a 6-3 victory over the Los Angeles Kings, the Coyotes have now gone Under in four consecutive games, and they have give up two goals or less in all four of those contests. Yes, goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov has been sharp with his microscopic 0.98 GAA and .960 save percentage, but it also helps that the suffocating Phoenix defense has allowed 26 shots or less in three of the last four games.
Now one would think that this major focus on the defensive end could result in offensive struggles, and that has indeed been the case, as the Coyotes are averaging only 2.00 goals per game with six of their 10 total goals in regulation time coming in that season opener. However, the fact is that the Phoenix roster is devoid of snipers anyway. Thus, the style they are playing now gives them the best chance to win, so do not expect them to change their stripes soon.
Now the Blues are averaging 3.00 goals per game, but after scoring nine goals in two overseas games vs. the Detroit Red Wings to begin the year, St. Louis has scored just three goals in their last two games stateside. Do not expect them to rediscover their offense tonight vs. a team that will not allow them to get much space.
This may not be the most exciting game in the world to watch, but that does not mean that we cannot benefit by cashing a safe Under ticket.
Pick: Blues/Coyotes Under 5.5
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Ottawa Senators
Ottawa is 11-2 their last 13 home games and they are 9-4 vs. an opponent that allowed 2 goals or less in their last game. The Senators have had their way with the Lightning going 20-4 their last 24 home games against them. Tampa Bay 13-43 their last 56 road games and they are 34-74-7 their last 115 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of over 60%. The Lightning are 2-7 off a win and they are 1-8 when playing with 2 days of rest. PLAY ON OTTAWA -
Randall the Handle
Tampa Bay +1.20 over OTTAWA
The Sens are playing some decent hockey to start the year but the jury is still out on whether they can be trusted as the chalk. The Sens are still not generating much offense and the power-play has been atrocious with one goal in 15 tries. Ottawa is playing a solid, disciplined, two-way game and not giving up much but a team that is having trouble scoring is a high risk laying juice. Meanwhile, the Lightning has won two in a row and have picked up points in four straight games but there’s more than that to like about them. They’ve scored a power-play goal in all five games this season and have registered at least 30 shots on goal in all five games. They’ve also outscored the opposition 8-3 in the third period and that’s also a good sign of things to come. The Bolts are getting solid goaltending and are definitely a threat to leave here with a win. Play: Tampa Bay +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.34 over MONTREAL
Wow, talk about no respect. All the Av’s have done is shoot out of the gate to a 4-1-1 record and that includes wins over Boston, San Jose, Vancouver and a OT loss to Chicago. There are so many things to like about this intruder. The Av’s have scored at least one power-play goal in each game and 10 overall in 26 chances and has killed 21 of 24 penalties. Twelve different players have scored a goal and in net Craig Anderson is at the top of the hill. Anderson has started all six games and has a 1.98 goals-against average and .940 save percentage. The fact that Montreal is a favorite here is a joke and the fact that they’re favored by this much is a bigger joke. The Habs have two wins but they should’ve been buried in both those games, as they were badly outplayed by both the Maple Leafs and the Sabres. When the Canucks were down and out early, the Habs went in there and got smoked, 7-1. Sure, they can win here but without doubt, we’re going with the best of it by taking back a tag on the superior team in a great mindset. The Habs offer nothing as a favorite unless you like getting your bankroll destroyed. Overlay. Play: Colorado +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia at L.A. DODGERS -135
I've nailed six straight FREE winners for my clients and today I'm making it seven in a row as I play the Dodgers at home in Game 1 to get the win against the Phillies in this NLCS.
It’s been a little wild for the Phillies who have been on the road a lot lately. They went to Colorado after dropping Game 2 of that series and had a game postponed on Saturday only to have to play late into the night on Sunday and then again on Monday.
Now they are in Southern California to take on the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Los Angeles has coasted down the stretch of the regular season and even in their three-game sweep of the Cardinals, it looked like the Dodgers weren’t really putting 100 percent into it.
This Dodgers’ squad is scary good. If everything is going well in the batting lineup and the bullpen, they might be the best team in baseball. They get great contribution from everyone in the starting lineup and each night it seems like somebody new is stepping up in a big way. Plus throw in the experience they gained in last year’s playoff loss to the Phillies, and they are ready to pounce.
Los Angeles has a little revenge on its mind after last year’s NLCS saw the Phillies oust the Dodgers in five games. So today the Dodgers are going with young lefty Clayton Kershaw (10-12, 4.39) over veteran Randy Wolfe.
Kershaw pitched Game 2 of the NLDS and allowed two runs in 6.2 innings, getting a no-decision in the Dodgers 3-2 victory. He’s allowed two runs or less in each of his last six starts and this guy has a 1.89 ERA in 17 home starts.
Cole Hamels (10-12, 4.38 ERA) is on the hill in the opener for the Phillies, but he took the only loss for them in the NLDS against Colorado, giving up four runs on seven hits in five innings of work. The lefty was just 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA away from Philly this season. And yes, I know he dominated the playoffs last year, but this isn’t last year’s Los Angeles team.
I think there is a reason the Dodgers basically led wire to wire. This team can play and do everything else to frustrate and eventually beat the opposition. Good pitching, timely hitting, great bullpen and great defense. I’ll play Los Angeles at home in this one.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Drew Gordon
Philadelphia +125 at LA DODGERS
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Philadelphia/LA Dodgers NLCS Game 1 match up.
Interestingly enough, the line on this game was driven up by the news Clayton Kershaw would be starting instead of Randy Wolf, and I couldn't disagree more with that. The young lefty pitched a hell of a game against the Rockies Oct. 3rd, and followed that with a quality start against the Cardinals in the NLDS, but let's not get carried away!
Kershaw has had plenty of ups-and-downs this season, and to call a 21-year old with little postseason experience their ace is a real stretch. Also, let's not forget he struggled against the Phillies this season, going 0-2 while allowing 6 runs on 8 hits over 10 1/3 innings (not exactly ace-like)! Yes, he's been very good at home, but trusting a kid in this spot, against a high-powered and very confident Phillies offense is a mistake.
On the flip side, I'm well aware that Cole Hamels has not looked like the same pitcher we saw in 2008, leading his team to the Title. However, he was superb in two starts against them this season, allowing just 1 earned over 16 innings, including striking out 14 while walking just 1 batter! That includes a complete game shutout at Dodger Stadium June 4th in his last one against them (out-pitching Kershaw by the way)! Oh yeah, and then there's the fact he dominated them last postseason, winning both games, allowing 3 runs over 14 innings! Its true that Hamels has not regained that form yet this season, but I'd trust the veteran with a proven track record over the kid everyone seems to love (but me).
Finally, I'll agree that the Dodgers have a solid edge in the bullpen, but on the same token, you have to agree that the Phillies have a strong edge at the plate. Say what you will about their strong play against the Cardinals, but that was a result of some solid pitching in a favorable match up... Remember, the Cards had real trouble hitting lefties, but that is not the case with Philadelphia, which averages a hearty 5.3 runs against southpaws on the road! In the end, while the Dodgers have the revenge factor, the Phillies are hardly intimidated, have no fear of the venue, and a crafty veteran that knows how to win in big games against this opponent specifically - sounds like a winning recipe to me.
Take Philadelphia behind Hamels over the LA Dodgers and Kershaw in this MLB match up.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Jr Tipps
Phillies at Dodgers
The Phillies and Dodgers are back in the National League championship series for the second straight year. Last year the Phillies took a 2-0 lead at home and went on to beat the Dodgers in five games in the NLCS before defeating Tampa Bay to win the World Series. The Phillies have won the NLCS in each of their last four appearances and beat the Dodgers last year although this year, the Dodgers own home-field advantage against the team they beat four times in seven games during the regular season.The Phillies Game 1 starter is Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw will start for the Dodgers tonight in a matchup of left-handers. At 21 years and 209 days, Kershaw will be the third-youngest Game 1 starter in postseason history and the eighth-youngest starter overall after Kershaw worked out of the bullpen in last year's NLCS. Kershaw came up big in the Dodgers' division-clinching win against Colorado on Oct. 3rd when he pitched six scoreless innings in that game, striking out his first five batters and retiring his first 11 in a row. Kershaw was 0-2 against the Phillies in the regular season so he will go with an aggressive approach tonight and go right at them with his best stuff. This is not the Colorado Rockies he is facing and that aggressive approach could backfire aginst this experienced Phillies lineup. There will be a lot of nerves for one of the youngest pitchers to ever pitch in an NLCS game vs. the World Champions and he better get over them early.
TAKE Phillies
Rocketman
Philadelphia @ LA Dodgers
Play: LA Dodgers
Phillies are 3-7 in Hamels' last 10 starts as a road underdog. Phillies are 2-5 in Hamels' last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Phillies are 2-5 in Hamels' last 7 starts with 6 days of rest. Phillies are 3-8 in Hamels' last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game. hillies are 1-4 in Hamels' last 5 starts as an underdog. Phillies are 1-4 in Hamels' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Phillies are 1-5 in Hamels' last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Phillies are 1-5 in Hamels' last 6 road starts. Phillies are 1-6 in Hamels' last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Phillies are 0-5 in Hamels' last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Phillies are 0-4 in Hamels' last 4 starts. Phillies are 0-4 in Hamels' last 4 starts on grass. Phillies are 0-4 in Hamels' last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Phillies are 0-4 in Hamels' last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass. Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a win. Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 Thursday games. Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Dodgers are 37-14 in their last 51 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Dodgers are 71-33 in their last 104 games as a home favorite. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!
Red Hott Locks
Coming into 2009, nobody expected Cincinnati to have a chance at winning the Big East and certainly didn’t expect the team to be undefeated after five games. Both doubts have come to fruition and the Bearcats have hopes of taking its second straight conference title. Even after losing 10 starters on defense, head coach Brian Kelly has orchestrated the No. 10 scoring defense in the country that yields a mere 13.8 ppg. The offense has been just as spectacular with Bearcats’ senior signal-caller Tony Pike transforming into one of the premier passers in college football. Pike leads the No. 3 scoring offense (42.0 ppg) and ranks No. 9 nationally in pass efficiency with a 159.9 passer rating (13 TDs, 3 INTs). Assisting in that department is wideout Mardy Gilyard. The senior has hauled in 38 balls for 517 yards and seven scores this season and should certainly be a first-day NFL Draft pick this offseason. This Cincinnati teams loves to throw the ball and gives Pike plenty of time having only surrendered four sacks all season. One concern for the Bearcats is managing the clock. Against Fresno State, Cincinnati only possessed the ball 16 minutes and versus Miami Ohio only 19 minutes. While a team doesn’t always have to win the TOP battle to be successful (especially with Cincy’s defense), controlling the clock can be beneficial when playing comparable teams like South Florida. Bearcats’ senior linebacker Curtis Young, who is the leader of the defense, is expected to return after missing the last three games after having knee surgery. The hybrid linebacker who can line up at defensive end, posted 9.5 tackles and a sack in the first two games.
When senior quarterback Matt Grothe tore his ACL in Week 3 and would miss the remainder of the season, everyone removed South Florida from the Big East contender equation. The Bulls hadn’t played a legit opponent and was facing Florida State the fourth week of the season with redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels making his first collegiate start. USF went to Tallahassee and shocked the Seminoles 17-7 behind the young quarterback. That marquee win looked great after FSU throttled BYU, but now not so much as the ‘Noles are struggling yet again. Daniels is a serviceable quarterback who can beat you with his arm and legs. He scrambled for 126 yards against FSU and 105 in the previous game. Emotional head coach Jim Leavitt isn’t putting too much pressure on the inexperienced QB, having only thrown a maximum of 21 passes in three games so far. The Bulls struggled with Syracuse through first half last week, only leading 14-13 at the break. And now the team will get a taste of its first real defense. It’s a good thing USF has a very good defense to counter. They have the No. 10-ranked total defense (263.0 ypg) and are giving up less than 10 points per outing. Led by a pursuant front four with defensive end George Selvie and tackle Terrell McClain, the Bulls are averaging almost three sacks per. In last week’s affair, USF forced the Orange into seven turnovers (5 INTs). But on the flip side, Tony Pike is a little more experienced than former Duke point guard Greg Paulus so don’t expect to see the Bulls’ defense to have as much success. Safety Jerrelle Young is questionable for the game after suffering a broken arm in Week 1 of the season. The secondary is already thin and will remain that way unless Young can play.
Coach Leavitt and Brian Kelly are intense coaches that will have their aggressive defenses geared up for this one. Both teams are coming off idle weeks so plenty of time to prepare for the conference matchup. The Bulls and Bearcats defenses are opportunistic with both in the Top 10 in the nation in turnover margin. The USF pass defense only gives up 158.2 ypg, but Pike’s short, quick passes over the middle can rack up a lot of yards in a hurry and the last two QBs South Florida has faced each have thrown for more than 250 yards. Last year’s contest between these two was a defensive battle, which could be expected again, with Cincy coming out on top 24-10. The Bearcats are tied for first place in the country in sacks, averaging more than 4.0 per game. Cincinnati should be able to fluster the freshman Daniels into a few turnovers, testing the USF offensive line (which lost four starters from a season ago) and winning a tough one in Tampa.
RHL Prediction: Cincinnati 28, South Florida 14
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
340 - 229 run 58 %
Thurs San Jose + Hockey
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