Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 16

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at San Francisco
The Giants look to clinch the NLCS following yesterday's 6-4 win and come into tonight's contest with a 10-2 record in Madison Bumgarner's last 12 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. San Francisco is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140)

Game 969-970: St. Louis at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.303; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.897
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 6

NHL

Colorado at Ottawa
The Avalanche head to Ottawa tonight and come into the contest with a 7-0 record in their last 7 games versus the Senators. Colorado is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Avalanche favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105)

Game 1-2: San Jose at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 13.509; NY Islanders 12.013
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-120); Under

Game 3-4: Dallas at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.504; Pittsburgh 12.997
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-170); Under

Game 5-6: New Jersey at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.896; Washington 11.422
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+105); Under

Game 7-8: Carolina at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.202; NY Rangers 13.411
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 9-10: Colorado at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.621; Ottawa 11.022
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Over

Game 11-12: Boston at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.735; Montreal 13.168
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-120); Under

Game 13-14: St. Louis at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.298; Los Angeles 12.786
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-130); Under

EZWINNERS

Pitt -1.5

Virginia Tech's starting quarterback Michael Brewer has already thrown eleven interceptions and just can't be trusted on the road. Pitt has some issues with their sophomore quarterback as well but the do have a ball hawking defense and an edge at running back with James Conner. Conner is a big 250 pound bruising running back that has already rushed for over 800 yards on the season. The Panthers should be able to control the clock with the running game and force a turnover or two to pick up the home win. Play on Pittsburgh.

Joe Gavazzi

Virginia Tech +1.5

It has been a roller coaster season for each of these teams. Pitt broke from the gate at 3-0 with an improved defense and the running of RB Connor. But, their cream puff schedule caught up with them in losses to Iowa, Akron and Virginia. Now, they must face another team of that ilk, who has likewise been up and down this season. Good enough to win at Ohio St., Tech was also bad enough to lose the following 2 weeks to E. Carolina and Georgia Tech. But, they have righted the ship with victories of 17 and 18 points of late, have the coaching of Beamer, the tradition of success, and the benefit of current momentum. There has been more than a 3 point move in this line since its inception, a solid indicator of success when fading the public team.

Sean Murphy

Utah vs. Oregon State
Pick: Oregon State

We won with Oregon State in this same matchup last season, albeit catching a couple of extra point. Of course, those points weren't needed as the Beavers prevailed by a 51-48 score in overtime - on the road no less.

I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this spot, as the scene shifts to Corvallis.

Both teams check in with identical 4-1 records, but Utah has been the better team ATS, going 4-1 compared to Oregon State's 2-3 mark.

Utah is a perfect 2-0 on the road this season, with impressive wins at Michigan and UCLA. Keep in mind, the Utes offense produced a grand total of just four touchdowns in those two contests. I'm not convinced they can keep up in a fire-fight with the Beavers.

The Beavers are 2-0 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by a 57-21 score. Some would say you can take that with a grain of salt as they've only defeated Presbyterian and San Diego State, so they'll be stepping up in class here. I believe it's a welcome test, however.

Most of the key pieces that were in place in last year's Beavers victory in this same matchup are back on board here in 2014. With a tough schedule remaining, this is undoubtedly a big game for Oregon State if it wants to improve its Bowl standing. I'll grab the points in this spot.

DAVE COKIN

SAN JOSE SHARKS AT NEW YORK ISLANDERS
PLAY: SAN JOSE SHARKS -115

It’s the final season for the Islanders at ancient Nassau County Coliseum. The Isles head to Brooklyn next year. But in the meantime, this improving NHL squad will probably suffer thanks to having to play half its games in the town dump.

Make no mistake, I absolutely feel some of the Islanders problems over the years have been directly related to the surroundings. If you think that’s a stretch, think again. To me, the job is immaterial. If the employees have to go to work in a craphole, it’s going to have an impact on production. This isn’t even debatable to me. There’s an absolute correlation between environment and attitude, and the Coliseum is without a doubt the worst facility in the NHL.

(I’m going off on a brief tangent here. This is the crux of the argument I have with too many people on the UNLV football program. I consistently get hammered when I factor in the substandard stadium and facilities as a big part of the reason the program has remained steeped in mediocrity. It’s not the only reason, but if you don’t think it matters, you’re just plain wrong. Go do some research. There are countless studies that prove beyond any doubt that the work environment has a substantial impact on employee production. So for those who want to argue this with me, either all the research is wrong or you are. Period. Now back to our regular programming.)

The Islanders are risng, and I can see them perhaps squeezing into the playoffs this season. I think they’re really going to take off next year when they move to Brooklyn. But I’m not convinced that the sizzling start is a sign that they’ve arrived. No question the goaltending got a big upgrade with the arrival of Jaroslav Halak. John Tavares is a legit star and the supporting cast is definitely better than it has been.

But the better team here is the visitor. San Jose might be the ultimate playoff clunker but from October through mid-April, this team will again be one of the best in the NHL. It’s a veteran cast with plenty of cohesiveness, and the Sharks can still be very explosive.

One thing that hasn’t apparently changed this season is that the West is still better than the East. Sure enough, Western Conference road teams are already off to a great start when visiting Eastern Conference locales.

I was surprised at the opening number on this game, which had the Islanders favored. That’s not the case anymore. San Jose has moved to the chalk in this game, and given the way they’ve started the season, I think that’s totally justified. The Islanders are getting better, but their success last year cam mostly on the road. They’ve been dismal at home with only nine wins it their last 30 games as hosts. Make it nine for 31. I’ll side with the Sharks to come away with the win tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

San Jose Sharks vs. New York Islanders
Play: San Jose Sharks -110

The Sharks have won 7 of the last 8 on the road vs the NY. Islanders and are 41-22 long term vs winning teams. The Sharks have also won 8 of the last 10 vs Metro teams. The Islanders exploded in the 3rd period on Tuesday scoring 4 goals and beating cross town rival NY. Rangers 6-3. We expect they will come up a bit flat for this one here tonight and they have lost 3 of the last 4 when off 3 or more wins and 1-6 off a dog win. The Islanders have lost 24 of 34 here when the total is 5.5. In a battle of two 3-0 teams we will back San Jose.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans
Pick: New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans is a young team that has more to prove during the preseason, with a pair of wins over Miami and Houston. Anthony Davis had 26 points, eight rebounds and four blocked shots as the New Orleans Pelicans beat the Houston Rockets 117-98 on Tuesday night. Pelicans center Omer Asik finished with 10 rebounds and eight points in his first game against his former team. Guard Eric Gordon contributed 15 points and four assists for New Orleans. The Pelicans never trailed after taking a 2-0 lead on the opening possession. This will be the third straight home game for New Orleans and they face a banged up Oklahoma City team with nothing to prove. They are without star Kevin Durant and playing its 3rd road game in 4 contests. This defense is not focused, allowing 114, 109 and 107 in three games. Other Thunder players who sat out with injuries the last game include Nick Collison (ankle sprain), Serge Ibaka (ankle sprain), Reggie Jackson (wrist contusion), Grant Jerrett (ankle), Mitch McGary (foot fracture) and Perkins (quad strain). Westbrook was the only regular from last season's starting lineup who played.

Jeff Scott Sports

Utah/Oregon State Under 53.5: The Oregon State offense has not been as explosive as in years past and I see them struggling vs a solid Utah defense that has allowed just 21.4 ppg on the year, including just 19 ppg on the road. The Beavers have played 2 home games this year and scored just 28 points vs San Diego State and 29 points vs FCS foe Presbyterian. There has been something wrong with this offense this year. The Utes have had a week off from their upset of UCLA and overall this is not an explosive offense. The have averaged 39.6 ppg this year, but most of that is the 115 points they scored in their first 2 games of the year vs Fresno State and Idaho. Neither have an FBS type defense. Oregon State has allowed just 23.4 ppg on the year, including just 10.5 ppg at home. This has the feel of a grind it out defensive battle. Key Trends: The Under is 7-1 in the Utes last 8 games vs a team with a winning record, while the Under is 5-1 in the Beavers' last 6 games off a Bye week.

Will Rogers

Boston Bruins vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Boston Bruins +110

The Boston Bruins have dominated the Eastern Conference in recent seasons, but it's been a difficult start to the season for Boston. They managed to gut out a win on the road in Detroit last night, and that sets up for a huge revenge game in Montreal tonight. I think the Bruins will want to make a statement here, and they could be catching Montreal at a good time, as the Habs are 3-0 and might be complacent.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. David Krejci - The Bruins leading scorer last season missed the first three games with an undisclosed injury. He returned against the Avs and played 19 minutes. Prior to last night's game I said "Look for Krejci to make an impact in tonight's game." Well he didn't waste any time, scoring the game's first goal six seconds from the opening faceoff.

2. Special Teams - If tempers flare we could see plenty of penalties in this "revenge" game. That might not bode well for the Habs who have yet to score a power-play goal while conceding four so far.

3. X-Factor - The Bruins were ousted from last year's playoffs by this Habs team, and when they lined up for the post-game handshake, Milan Lucic issued the following threats: "I'm going to (expletive) kill you next year."

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Jesse Schule

Utah vs. Oregon St
Pick: Utah

Pac-12 rivals Utah and Oregon State will meet in Corvallis on Thursday night. Both teams are 4-1, and both are well rested coming off a bye. The Utes though have climbed into the rankings after upsetting UCLA in Pasadena. The Beavers will likely have their hands full trying to stop Utah's power running game.

The Utes will be looking to avenge a home loss to the Beavers last year. Oregon State won that game by a score of 51-48 in overtime. QB Sean Mannion threw for 443 yards and five TDs in the victory, and he led the Pac-12 in passing last season. Mannion has struggled this year though, and he's thrown for just one TD and three picks in his last three starts. Surely he misses Brandon Cooks who is now catching balls from Drew Brees with the New Orleans Saints.

The Beavers may not be quite as good as their 4-1 record suggests, with those wins coming against Colorado, San Diego State, Hawaii and Portland State. So far they've struggled when facing tougher competition, losing 35-10 to USC on September 27.

I think it's fair to say that the Beavers offense is nowhere near as good as it was last year, and I think the Utes should have little trouble running all over the Oregon State defense.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Oregon State +3

Reser Stadium can be a difficult place to play, especially at night. The fact that Utah is coming off a road win over UCLA and Oregon State barely squeaked by with a win at Colorado, and the books have the Utes listed as a mere 3-point favorite is a good indication that the experts are expecting Utah to struggle to leave Corvallis with a win.

This is actually a solid matchup for Oregon State, as Utah’s strength defensively is a physical front 7 that has held opponents to just 113.4 rushing ypg (20th). However, the Utes are 91st against the pass (263.4 ypg) and there’s no doubt the Beavers will be looking to spread them out and attack through the air. Oregon State is 47th in passing (260.8 ypg) compared to 101st in rushing (132.4 ypg).

The Utes are getting a lot of respect for wins at Michigan and UCLA, but neither of those programs are as good as we thought coming into the season. What really stands out to me is that Utah lost at home to an average Washington State team, which leaves little doubt in my mind that the Beavers can pull off the upset.

Oregon State comes in 28th in the country in total defense, allowing just 331.6 ypg. While some of that has to do with an easy schedule early, you don’t put up those kind of numbers without some talent on that side of the ball. With this being a nationally televised game against a ranked opponent at home, I look for the Beavers to play inspired defensively and get just enough offense to cover and win the game outright.

There is a solid system here telling us to fade the Utes. Road favorites off a win by 6 or less points who are averaging 34+ ppg against an opponent that is allowing 21 to 28 ppg are just 7-30 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Beavers.

Freddy Wills

Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Virginia Tech +110

Both teams come off a bye here and I think that will help the Hokies better even as the road team. Pitt is still one of the youngest teams in the country with Sophomores making all the noise and I think coming off a bye along with the fact that they are just going to be too juiced for this game is going to create issues in a game where VA Tech should have a lot of success on defense.

Pittsburgh's 3 game losing streak has come in the hands of teams that can stop the run. All 3 losses Pitt has been held under 5 yards per carry and under 200 yards rushing. Iowa ranked 70th vs. the run is much better than that ranking and they won at Pitt, Akron ranked 38th beat Pitt and held them to 10 points, and Virginia ranked 9th vs. run also defeated Pitt at home. While VA Tech is ranked 32nd they are much better in my opinion. The only teams to average more than 3 yards per carry were UNC and Georgia Tech. UNC runs with their talented QB while Georgia Tech has the triple option. Pitt won't be running with their QB, but giving the ball to James Conner who has slowed down significantly once the competition was better and teams realized Pitts was not going to beat them deep.

VA Tech has played well on the road this year and historically well on Thursday nights. They are also better on offense and defense vs. a more challenging schedule YTD on third downs and in the red zone. VA Tech can stop the run and set up third and longs and their pass protection and pass rushes are better. Pitt's pass defense looks like a top 10 unit, but they've faced passing offenses ranked 110, 116, 71, 114, and 95. If VA Tech doesn't make too many mistakes they win this game.

Freddy Wills's Featured Package

Alvaro Menor

Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Under 45

Pittsburgh will face Virginia Tech tonight in what will be the closest and lowest score on the ACC this year. Both teams have already one loss on the conference and another one would be the end to their ACC championship game hopes.

I like this play as both teams defense ranks in the top 30 nationally. The best about this defenses is Pittsburgh defense ranks eleventh in the nation on passing yards per game and Virginia Tech ranks 21th on rushing yards per game. Which limits both teams and can make the offense look one dimensional, what makes it predictable.

These teams will play three years in a row after this game. The first one of this games in 2012 was a 35-17 win for the Panthers going over the total for just a touchdown. Last year Virginia Tech won 19-10 going under the total by more than two touchdowns, and we are looking at a game that should be more similar to last season defensive showdown.

When the total is between 42-47 and Pittsburgh has scored less than 30 points on their last game, under is 11-2, including 10-1 when the games are after week 5. Under is 3-0 in Pittsburgh last 3 games and 3-0-1 is VA Tech last 4 games.

MLB Predictions

Cardinals / Giants Under 6.5

This is a duplicate pitching matchup of game 1 in this series. Madison Bumgarner was completely locked in then, holding the Cardinals down to 4 hits and no runs scored. In fact, Bumgarner has been locked in all postseason, he enters tonight with an ERA of 0.76 coupled with a 0.72 WHIP. The Cards have had plenty of issues hitting left-handed pitching, hitting only .164 against in their last 5 starts. Bumgarner is a big reason for that number, and all indications are that he is going to rip through them once again. Adam Wainwright will look for some redemption after getting credited for 2 runs against in the last game. In a playoff setting, yeah, 2 runs against for Wainwright is too much. From a pitcher of his level you expect something like Bumgarner has been doing. But still, other than that one start against the Dodgers, allowing 6, Wainwright has allowed only 4 runs in five of his last six games. I am expecting another low scoring contest, with Wainwright and Bumgarner dueling in San Francisco. In my opinion I think you can flip a coin on the winner of this game, but on the total I see a winner on the UNDER 6.5.