Mike Rose
Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -1
Completely agree with the line movement for tonight’s ACC clash that saw the Hokies open as 3-point road chalk and immediately flip into the underdog role. The PITT program has been down for quite some time while VTECH has consistently been one of the better programs in the country under Beamer’s watch. However, the Panthers are the better side in this one and many will be left shaking their heads and saying I knew it after watching James Connor and the ground attack rush their way to a convincing win. The home team’s defense is legit, and it will give turnover prone QB Brewer and the Hokies offense fits. On top of that, VTECH’s offense has been stuck in neutral all season. Though it had a week off to prepare and gained some confidence last time out vs. UNC, the Tar Heels stop unit pales in comparison to what they’re about to run up against in this spot. The home team has covered four of the L/5 meetings and I fully expect that trend to continue after PITT snaps its three-game losing streak under the Thursday night lights.
Tony Finn
New York at New England
Play: Under 45
The New York Jets are in Foxborough tonight to take on division foe New England. The Patriots are back atop the AFC East with a 4-2 record and two straight victories after being embarrassed in a Monday Night Football affair in Kansas City. New England has won six of the past seven meetings but it is important to understand that this is not the same Patriots troupe we have watched the last half decade or more.
A year ago, these two AFC East teams exchanged three point home wins and while the Jets are winless since a Week 1 victory over Oakland they have been in most games, save their trip to San Diego when they lost 31-0. They should have beaten Green Bay in Week 2 on the road and were a possession away against the Bears on Monday night in Week 3. They lost to Detroit by a touchdown in Week 4 and stayed with Denver, missing a cover on pick-6 in final 0:15 of the game. New York bench boss Rex Ryan insists he is committed to second-year quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has thrown seven interceptions — at least one in every game — and has completed only 57.1 percent of his passes, so the Jets have leaned heavily on running backs Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to power the offense. They will do so again against a New England front seven that will bend. The New York press is calling for a change at quarterback but Smith was interception-free until that final ill-advised toss which wound up in Aquib Talib’s hands and run back for the TD, as Denver managed to cover
Don't think for a minute that coach Ryan is going to put his quarterback in harm's way early in this Thursday night affair. Expect the Jets to be committed to the run, successful or not on first and second downs, lessening the pressure on Geno.
New York ranks 30th in the league in total offense (303.3 yards per game) and last in passing (182.2) and rank sixth in the league in total defense. New York has given up a large number of points due to average field position by their opponents and it is a direct result of 12 giveaways this season.
LT Profits
New York at New England
Pick: Under 44.5
The New England Patriots just lost running back Stevan Ridley for the season, so they may go back to being a one-dimensional passing offense going forward. Normally that favors the ‘over’, but Coach Rex Ryan of the New York Jets has defended Tom Brady better than most other defensive gurus and oddly it may actually help the New York defense knowing that Brady will throw on almost every down, especially since the Jets have a very good pass rush (19 sacks). And for the Jets offensively, the struggling Geno Smith does not figure to do much vs. a third ranked New England passing defense, but the Patriots can be run on allowing 4.2 yards per rush and the Jets average 121 rushing yards per game on 4.5 YPC, so expect some long drives that use up clock. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the Patriots’ last 10 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Jets +9½ over NEW ENGLAND
Speculation of New England's demise appears to have been greatly exaggerated following impressive back-to-back performances against Cincinnati and Buffalo in which the Patriots racked up 80 points and put away both opponents. There were many folks who bet against the Pats against Cincinnati and there were many folks that bet against them last week in Buffalo as a road favorite. We often say that the best time to jump off a team is when everyone else is jumping on and that applies here to New England. The Patriots have played with great intensity the past two weeks but let’s not ignore how they struggled earlier against weaker opponents. Despite winning two in a row in impressive fashion, this is still a middle of the pack squad in just about every key offensive and defensive category.
The Jets opened the year against Oakland on the road and won 19-14. New York’s next five games came against Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego and Denver. Combined, those five teams are 20-9 and none of them are below .500. Rex Ryan knew his job was on the line this year after overachieving to finish 8-8 last year despite having a pathetic offense. Off to a 1-5 start, the calls for his large head are getting louder all the time but one thing that has remained consistent is that Ryan knows how to prepare for the Patriots. Last season these two played twice and both games were decided by a field goal. In fact, three of the last four games have been decided by a field goal. Aside from that 31-0 loss to the Chargers in San Diego, the Jets have been good enough to keep four of their five losses within one touchdown. Now playing on a short week against an older squad like the Patriots, in a divisional game and taking back significant points, we trust the Jets to keep this one well within this range also.
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas/PITTSBURGH Over 5½
Two shaky goaltenders, two very average defenses plus a bevy of outstanding talent up front on both teams prompts us to step in here. Also note that goals are up this year due to some subtle changes that the league made to help increase scoring. Also read our analysis on this game for other reasons we trust this won’t be a 3-2 game.
Dallas +153 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. This is just one game and anything can happen but it’s obvious to anyone in the know that the Penguins are overpriced here and/or the Stars are underpriced. Don’t get us wrong, Pittsburgh is a quality outfit that has a great chance to lead the entire league in goals scored. However, they are not unbeatable with the same issues that have prevented them from deep playoff runs the past few years still a problem. That’s defense and goaltending and when those two areas are weak, you are always in danger of losing to teams that are better or just as good as you are. The Pens lost unrestricted free agents Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen but the team was able to lure Christian Ehrhoff with a one-year, $4 million contract. That’s neither an upgrade nor a downgrade and Marc Andre Fleury remains a big-time liability in goal. We also don’t like that the Penguins have been off for five days because that’s just not a normal routine during the season.
You see that +153 on Dallas? Well, have a good look at it because you may not see that price on them again this season. Dallas is as good as Pittsburgh and we can assure you that Pittsburgh, barring injuries, will not be offered anything close to a tag like this one the entire season. We always insist on finding value, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may and this is a great example of that. In fact, one could argue that Dallas is the mirror image of Pittsburgh with one of the better crops of forwards in the entire league and with goaltending and defense being their biggest flaws. This one figures to be fast paced and extremely entertaining to watch with Dallas having at least an equal chance of winning. Play the value.
Boston +107 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal returns home after a four-game trip to open the year in which they went 3-1. However, none of the Canadiens victories were impressive. They needed a last minute goal to get by the Maple Leafs in their opener. Against Washington, Montreal won 2-1 but they were completely dominated on the ice for 2½ periods. Against the 0-4 Flyers, Montreal was down 3-0 going to the third before Philly let up in the third. Against Tampa, Montreal was buried 7-1. One could easily argue that the Habs should be 0-4 and not 3-1 and so a correction in their W/L record is forthcoming. It does not end there though. This is opening night in Montreal and it’s not just a game. There will be opening night ceremonies, player introductions and who know knows what else the franchise has in store to make it a memorable evening and ceremony. That works to the Bruins advantage, as they will be sitting in their dressing room getting jacked up for this game while an already travel-weary Habs will be on their feet for an extra half hour. These ceremonial events always hinder the home team. The media is all over them, they have extra obligations and all it does is distract them from the task at hand. Playing poorly and returning home after a four-game trip against a highly motivated opponent, Montreal could be in trouble here.
Ya think the B’s want to spoil this party? Boston was eliminated by Montreal in last year’s playoffs in the second round and now has a chance to pay some of it back. The Bruins also got off to a shaky start this year but last night in Detroit, Boston played its best game of the season by far. They were skating, they were hitting, they were creating and they played an outstanding defensive game. The Bruins can take their restored confidence and momentum from that game into this one and deliver what figures to be an even better effort tonight. The Bruins are going to be very difficult to beat tonight while the same can’t be said for the Habs.
Colorado -½ +150 over OTTAWA
3-way betting in regulation only. Ottawa lacks star power beyond Erik Karlsson but they make up for it with a solid, under-rated roster that looks capable of surprising opponents when they are sharp. The Senators are not going to dazzle anyone this year. They are another one of those teams that is a going to need outstanding goaltending and a 100% effort from every player to even have a chance of winning consistently. If you can find a spot in which the Sens are flat, you will likely cash a ticket betting against them and this could be that spot. Ottawa opens its home schedule this evening after playing its first three on the road. The Sens return home with a 2-1 record after defeating Tampa Bay and Florida while losing to Nashville. Playing on the road is easy to open the year, as the team can relax, they can bond and they can make mistakes without being scrutinized. Things get a little different at home, where these Canadian teams play under a microscope every night and it may take a couple of weeks until they feel comfortable playing at home.
Colorado has just one win in four games. That lone victory occurred with less that one second left in the third period against the Bruins this past Monday. Playing in Toronto on Tuesday, the Avalanche were outshot 40-24 and they looked completely gassed in the third period. Patrick Roy is going to blow a gasket if he doesn’t see a serious improvement soon. These Avs are way too talented to continue to lose games or even get outplayed by much weaker teams from the East. Ottawa has been outshot in every game and only managed 23 and 20 shots on net against Florida and Nashville, respectively. The Avs are off to a low start but now have a great opportunity to take advantage of playing a team that is not only ripe to get beat but that is inferior to them. We’re betting they respond.
Pass MLB & NCAAF
Larry Ness
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators
Pick: Ottawa Senators
Colorado went from worst-to-first in the Central Division last year but after failing to score a goal in its opening home-and-home series with Minnesota to begin this season, the Avalanche may be due to fall to the middle of the pack in the Western Conference this season. Currently at 1-2-1, Colorado has managed only four goals in four contests. Much of the problem for the Avalanche is that they have failed to score on any of their thirteen power play opportunities.
Colorado has also now lost SEVEN of its last eight games on the road. Meanwhile, Ottawa has opened the season 2-1-0 after its 1-0 win at Florida on Monday. The Senators finally h on ave their home-opener tonight, after closing out last year winning FIVE of their last seven games on home ice. Optimism is high for this franchise after finishing last year winning eight of its last 10 games.
Jack Jones
Oregon State +3
The No. 20 Utah Utes (4-1) are one of the most overrated teams in the country right now. They are getting so much respect for their wins over Michigan and UCLA that they are actually favored in this game. That means the books over overlooking their 27-28 home loss to Washington State.
In all three of those games, the Utes were outgained by Michigan, Washington State and UCLA to show that they easily could have or should have lost all three. They were even outgained by the Cougars by 138 yards. The only reason they have been able to come away with a 4-1 record to this point is due to being +6 in turnover differential over their past three contests. They cannot rely on turnovers and defensive touchdowns forever.
Oregon State (4-1) has been crushed by USC 10-35 on the road in its only loss of the season. That loss is stuck in the minds of the betting public and thus the oddsmakers as they are undervalued because of it. They have won their other four games, including each of their two home games against Portland State (29-14) and San Diego State (28-7). They outgained Portland State by 290 total yards and should have won by more. They outgained San Diego State by 157 yards as well in their most impressive performance of the year.
I really like the improvement I’ve seen from this Oregon State defense this season in allowing just 331.4 yards per game and 4.8 per play. That’s impressive when you consider their opponents are averaging 394 yards per game and 5.2 per play on the season. It’s going to be tough for this Utah offense to move the football and put up points on the road in this one.
Oregon State is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games off a bye week. The Beavers are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games after having won three of their last four games coming in. The Utes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Utah is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games following a win. The Beavers are 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 October games. This is the time of year where Mike Riley gets the most out of his teams.
Plays against road favorites (UTAH) – an excellent offensive team (>=34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a win by 6 or less points are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. This is also a tough spot for the Utes as they are coming off the big win over UCLA and have USC on deck, making this a sandwich game for them and a possible letdown.
Steve Janus
Giants/Cardinals Over 6
The Giants and Cardinals have combined to score at least 9 runs in each of the last 3 games and I'm looking for another offensive outburst in what could be the series clincher for San Francisco.
The fact that tonight's scheduled starters, Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner, saw a total of just 3 runs scored when they started Game 1 of this series, has created some great value here on the OVER.
Wainwright hasn't pitched past the 5th inning in either of his two postseason starts and has allowed 9 runs on 17 hits and 4 walks over 9 innings of work. Bumgarner was sensational at St Louis in Game, limiting the Cardinals to just 4 hits over 7 2/3 shutout innings, but he's not been the same pitcher at AT&T Park as he has on the road. Bumgarner has a 4.03 ERA over 15 road starts, compared to a 2.22 ERA over 18 road starts. St Louis will have a better understanding of what to expect from the young lefty this time around and I look for them to score more than enough to push this over the mark of 6.
Key Trends - OVER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 road games in the NLCS and a perfect 8-0 in the Giants last 8 home games in the NLCS.
Nick Parsons
NY Jets vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -9½
When the New York Jets play their AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots, they will be trying to end their longest losing streak in seven years. The Patriots are trying for a sixth consecutive regular-season home victory over the Jets.
The Jets are sticking with quarterback Geno Smith. He has completed 57.1 percent of his passes, thrown six touchdowns and seven interceptions for an NFL-low 69.7 passer rating. He went 32 of 68 for 447 yards with a TD, four INTs and was sacked eight times while the Jets split the 2013 season series with New England.
The Jets will try to establish their running game. New York averaged 151.3 rushing yards in the first four games then totaled 122 in the next two. The Jets defense has been there to help the offense out. They are allowing an average of 28.8 points since the 19-14 victory over Oakland. Its defense gave up 253 rushing yards in the first four games before allowing 300 to San Diego and Denver.
The Jets secondary has been struggling and now they have lost starting cornerback Dee Millner for the season. They must now face a rejuvenated New England offense that has scored 80 points in its last two games.
I see Tom Brady and the New England offense continuing to get stronger against this weak Jets defense. Tom Brady has won six straight regular-season home games versus New York, and thrown nine TDs, one INT and recorded a 101.3 rating in the last five.
Brady, will have to find a new rushing attack as starter Stevan Ridley has been lost for the season. He will be replaced by Shane Vereen with Brandon Bolden and James White also likely to see action.
I feel New England has righted the ship and will roll over this very dysfunctional Jets team. Brady will be able to feast on the Jets secondary and the Patriots defense will feast on Geno Smith. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vick get some action for the Jets.
Steve Rosen
San Jose Sharks vs. NY Islanders
Play: NY Islanders +110
The New York Islanders have begun the season with three straight victories and will extend that streak when the unbeaten San Jose Sharks visit on Thursday. The Islanders boast 15 goals – five on the power play in 12 chances – while captain John Tavares and Brock Nelson have posted seven points apiece. The Sharks opened their campaign with two consecutive shutouts before starting a five-game road trip with a 6-5 shootout victory over Washington on Tuesday.
The Islanders have received a big boost from the late-preseason acquisitions of defensemen Johnny Boychuk (two goals, four assists) and Nick Leddy, who scored in the 6-3 win at the New York Rangers on Tuesday.
The main reason I love this matchup is because the Sharks need to get their power play in gear after capitalizing on just two of 15 opportunities! Also their backup Stalock is in net. The Islanders are too hot and will win another to go 4-0. Letdown spot for the Sharks. New York G Jaroslav Halak is 87-33-14 with a 2.14 goals-against average in home games, he will make the Nassau Coliseum his home and start tonight with a huge win over the Sharks.
Sam Martin
Utah at Oregon St.
Play: Oregon St.
It's not that we're in love with the Beavers, but Utah isn't yet worthy of being listed as a road favorite in this matchup and we'll gladly take the points with the home underdog in this weeknight national tv setting with what we consider to be the better team. Utes come in ranked in the top 25 after with road wins at UCLA and Michigan on their docket, but despite those wins we are still not sold.
For starters, that Michigan win doesn't look all that impressive anymore after the start the Wolverines have had, and their close win at UCLA had much more to do with the Bruins schedule than anything else - coming off a win at #15 Arizona State and being caught looking ahead to their matchup with Oregon up next. Now is the best time to take advantage of Utah's overlay and grab the value - especially with Utah being the road team. Oregon State not a great team but not all that bad either, and they are certainly capable of holding serve on their home field without too much trouble!
Bob Balfe
San Francisco Giants -150
I am not going against Bumgarner in a close out game. There is just not a chance of this happening. St. Louis is not out of this series yet because SF doesn’t light up the scoreboard, but this guy is clutch and has ice in his veins. The Cardinals really missed Molina in this series and the scoreboard shows it. The price is slowly getting higher and higher at -150. If you don’t like it just don’t play the game. No need to play every game just for some action, however don’t play the run line because they are nothing but teases. Take San Francisco.
Harry Bondi
VIRGINIA TECH (+1.5) over Pittburgh
Classic case of two teams going in the opposite direction. After beating up on a soft schedule to start the season, the Panthers have lost three straight. The main problem for Pitt is that this is a one-dimensional team, with RB James Connor getting the vast majority of carries on offense. That's exactly the kind of match-up Frank Beamer and the Hokie defense thrive against, especially with extra time to prepare. Virginia Tech also loves the bright lights of midweek football, going a profitable 20-8 ATS the last 28 Thursday night games. We'll take the short number with better and more athletic team.
Tom Barton
Virginia Tech vs Pitt
Pick: Under 45
Both of these teams want a slow paced, run oriented, smash mouth game and we should get that. There is a chance of rain and nasty weather would just be a perfect backdrop to what should be a nasty, ugly game. The Panthers may have run their star RB into the ground but there is no doubt they will continue to abuse him in this game because they just refuse to go to the air. James Conner is ranked fifth nationally in rushing yards per game but has been held to just 87 the last two games. The Panthers have scored 20,19, and 19 and if you look at their season stats winning 3 straight seems long ago. They now face this Virginia Tech run defense which is ranked 16th overall. The Hokies meanwhile also face a pretty solid D. Despite losing 3 straight they have allowed just 24 points or less in each contest and on the season no one has crossed 25. The Hokies look much better since their slow start putting up big offensive numbers the last two weeks but consider the competition. North Carolina is horrible on D and Western Michigan is well Western Michigan. I expect both teams to run the ball, drain the clock and play solid defense in what should be a low scoring game. 45 is mighty low for a college game but it's low for a reason tonight.
Tony George
San Francisco -146
I am going to take the home team and hot pitcher here to close it out tonight. Kansas City who swept 8-0 in the post season await the winner of this series for the World Series on Tuesday in Kansas City. St. Louis is finding ways to lose, and that is unusual with their resume, and the Giants simply put, are the better team. They have ace Bumgarner on the hill tonight who is hot and destroyed St. Louis in game 1, and while the Cards Wainwright is a stud, he is in a slump of sorts and that plays out well tonight for the Giants after St Louis pissed away a win yesterday. St Louis is not a good road team, and that hurts this time of year, just 4-9 their last 14 road games. They are 10-4 in Wainwrights last 14 road starts, but tonight is a different animal.
The Giants middle relief staff has come on strong and is better than that of Cards, and with a pitcher who in his last 3 starts has an ERA of 0.76 and a WHIP of 0.71 against a struggling opponent whose ERA is 4.50 his last 3 starts, at home, with the World Series in the balance, I am laying the number.