Prophet Plays
St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -144
The Adam Wainwright we've seen in the postseason is not the same guy who led the St. Louis pitching staff from April through September. Whether it's elbow issues or a matter of mechanics, something isn't right and perhaps the recent comments about reducing his workload for next season should be taken at more than face value. Wainwright was, along with LA's Kershaw, the most dominant pitcher in baseball in the season's first half. However, post-All Star break he was merely mortal and his two postseason outings have been atrocious. Again the Dodgers in the NLDS opener on October 3 he was hit hard, allowing six runs on 11 hits in 4.1 innings. And that was his first start since September 22 so it's not like he wasn't rested. Then, eight days later he faced the Giants in the NLCS opener and allowed three runs on six hits over 4.2 innings. Madison Bumgarner bested Wainwright in the series opener with 7.2 innings of four-hit shutout ball. In three postseason starts so far he's allowed just 3 runs on 14 hits with 23 strikeouts and only 3 walks over 23.2 innings. Bumgarner is 3-1 with a 0.59 ERA in his last four playoff starts and he's anchored the San Fran pitching staff down the stretch as the Giants have won eight of his last 10 outings.
Bruce Marshall
Avalanche at Senators
Pick: Under
Colorado has gotten off to a slow start this season but perhaps a trip to Ottaw3a, where the Avs haven't lost in nien years, will prove a bosot. more than likely, however, we expect another klower-scoring game like Colorado's last two games at boston and Toronto on the current Eastern road swing. The Avs are 0 for 13 on their power plays and face Sen GK Craig Anderson, off of a shutout over Florida on Tuesday night.
Dave Price
Utah -2.5
I'm not sold on Oregon State, which has played a soft schedule to this point. It's played one game against a high-caliber opponent (USC) and was crushed 35-10. A bye week came at a good time for Utah, which upset UCLA on the road last time out. The extra time off takes a letdown out of play. The Utes have USC up next, but there's no way they'll be overlooking the Beavers after losing to them in OT last year. The Utes are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week and 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a winning record. The Beavers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
New England/Jets Under 45: This should be a sloppy game thanks to mother nature and that should keep the scoring rather low. The Jets have struggled on offense when the weather is fine, so I don't see them doing a whole lot in bad weather. Geno Smith just isn't an NFL caliber QB and I feel eventually that Ryan will have to go to Mick Vick. He's got nothing to lose, cause he's probably fired after this year anyway. one thing the jets can do on offense is run the ball and they will have to in this game, which will keep that clock moving. The Jets have allowed 26.3 ppg this year, but are also 6th in the league in yards allowed, so they can play some defense and the Pats offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Pats also know how to play defense as they come 5th overall and 3rd vs the pass, while allowing just 21.5 ppg on the year. This game should feature more defense that offense and as far as the teaser below its interesting to note that the Jets last 12 losses have been by a TD or more, which is why I went with the Pats -3.5 along with the Under in the Teaser. Ill call for a 24-14 final provided Smith doesn't throw another late Pick Six. Note to Pats defenders: Just Fall On The Damn Ball.
Vegas Butcher
San Francisco Giants -142
There’s really not much more I can say about Bumgarner than what he’s already “said” about himself with his recent play. He’s thrown 23.2 innings in the postseason so far, allowed only 14 hits, 0 HR’s, 2 ER’s (0.76 ERA), and has 23 K to only 3 BB’s in this span. And that’s pitching @ PIT, vs WSN, and @ STL, on the road twice, and facing strong lineups each time. Like discussed the last few days, STL offense is much weaker without Molina in the lineup, and Pierzynski just adds another left-handed bat to the order, which is even worse against BumG. His 1.4 FIP against lefties ranks 2nd in the league, only behind Chris Sale’s 1.0. I’m sure we’ll see Cruz for the full game behind the plate today, only because he’s right-handed. At the same time I would also not be scared of BumG’s 4.0 ERA at home this year. A big factor here is an inflated .336 BABIP at home, as his 26% K-rate, 0.7 HR/9 rate, and 2.8/2.9 FIP/xFIP are all much stronger than they were on the road this season. These are elite numbers at home, and indicate that BumG has pitched more like a 2.8 FIP pitcher at home than a 4.0 ERA one. I trust the advanced stats in this scenario.
In any case, the bigger factor in this game is Wainwright. In his 2 post-season starts he’s allowed 17 hits, 8 ER’s (8.0 ERA), and a HR in 9 innings of work. He has 7 K but the 4 BB’s issued is a major red flag, given the fact that he rarely walks anyone at all. Last start vs. the Giants at home, Wainwright lasted 4.2 innings and threw 98 pitches. Prior to that he lasted 4.1 innings against LAD and threw 102 pitches. That’s as inefficient as it gets. Did you know that over the last two years, and including post-season, Wainwright has thrown 508 innings, the MOST out of any starter in the National League? Do you also remember that this is the guy that is 3 years removed from Tommy John Surgery? Reports indicate that it has been months now that Wainwright has been pitching with “tendinitis and discomfort around his right elbow” which is a big ‘Oh Oh’ sign. There was a study done in HardBallTimes earlier this year on TJS’s, and one of the interesting findings is that pitchers who usually get/need the 2nd TJSurgery are typically around 650 total innings pitched since the first one. Wainwright is at 640 total innings since his surgery, which is pretty much right on the mark. I hope that Wainwright is fine, I really do, as he’s one of my favorite pitchers in the league. But the signs are all there to point out that something is clearly WainNOTright (yeah I know it’s a bad joke!) with him right now. Unfortunately for the Cards they don’t really have any other options at this point. Lynn is on 3-days rest (he should have been game 1 starter it looks like so that the Cards could have used him today), Wacha hasn’t been used at all, indicating that his shoulder isn’t right still, and there really isn’t anyone else. Cards will probably hope to get at least 3-4 innings out of Wainwright and then will rely on the BP again. But that is where San Fran’s second major advantage comes into play!
Both teams have used their BP’s throughout this series of course, but with Bumgarner going 7.2 innings in game 1, San Fran’s pen wasn’t really taxed much in that particular game. By comparison, a number of Cardinals’ relievers have pitched 4 out of the last 5 days (Choate / Manness) or 3 out of the last 4 (Neshek / Martinez). Giants have a few relievers in the same boat, but the overall workload has been lower. Let’s compare:
SFG bullpen (5 key relievers): 11.2 innings with 154 total pitches thrown @ 13.1 pitches per relief-inning and 31 pitches per reliever so far (Machi only threw 7 pitches so took him out of the equation and Petit wasn’t counted in this analysis as he’s a pseudo-starter, not really a reliever in a true sense).
STL bullpen (6 key relievers): 15 innings with 258 total pitches thrown @ 17.2 pitches per relief-inning and 43 pitches per reliever so far.
It’s pretty clear from these numbers that this Cardinals bullpen is a lot more taxed than the Giants’. At 43 pitches per reliever so far, that’s 39% higher than what San Fran’s relievers (31 total pitches per) have thrown on average. So which bullpen will you trust in the later innings of this one if Wainwright is ON and this game is close? And what if Wainwright’s elbow issues are real and he can’t go past the 4th/5th inning again, can you really trust this Cardinals bullpen to finish the game for him? I think we can make a very convincing argument that not only do the Giants have a strong advantage with their starter on the mound, but they also have a significant advantage with their BP in this one.
Finally, I want to point out that my MLB computer model has this game at -138 with a total of 6.4. There’s no ‘odds value’ on this game, but of course in the post-season you will very rarely find much pure value if any. What the model is telling us is that these odds listed for today are what they should be in an ideal scenario for both teams: starters healthy (Wainwright is not), both bullpens fresh (Cards’ are much more taxed), and both offensive and fielding lineups at their optimal (Molina is hurt). But that’s just not the case today as San Fran is in a much better shape from top to bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go to -150 or even higher by the end of the day, but regardless of the odds, I love the chances of San Francisco Giants booking their trip to the World Series tonight.
Brady Kannon
San Francisco Giants -145
I figured last night on this line being -140 and sure enough, it's pretty close. It is inflated because of the post season and the situation at hand but I can't make any case at all for making a play on the dog here. Wainwright, as we figured, has not been himself in two out of the last three months and most recently, in this series, in Game One. Bumgarner is going as well as anybody in the game right now and so are The Giants. San Francisco continues to frustrate its opponents by continuing to win games no matter what the opposition throws at them and like The Orioles, this has St. Louis ready to cry uncle. There is no doubt you will get some fight from this Cardinals club but I feel it will be too much to overcome - and especially without Molina. You might see if some buy back happens but I wouldn't wait too long as I don't think anybody is going to take many chances going against The Giants at home, with their ace on the hill.
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion - PITTSBURGH (+1) 24 Virginia Tech 19
Pittsburgh has lost 3 straight games but I still think the Panthers are a better team than Virginia Tech. The Hokies may be 4-2 with a win at Ohio State but they’ve averaged only 5.2 yards per play on offense (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and their good defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense) doesn’t quite make up for how bad their offense is. The Hokies do tend to run significantly more plays than their opponents (78.7 to 62.0) and they actually rate at 3.5 points better than average from the line of scrimmage because of that play differential. However, Pitt is 3.0 points better than average from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively but also having a very positive play differential of +9.0 plays. Where Pitt has the advantage in this game is in special teams (1.9 points better than Virginia Tech) and in the matchup of their run-oriented offense (41 running plays per game at 5.5 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) against a Virginia Tech defense that is worse than average defending the run (5.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yprp) but very good against the pass (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.8 yppp against an average team). The Hokies’ great pass defense is less meaningful against a team that runs the ball as much at Pitt does and that match up advantage adds value. My math model gives Pitt a profitable 54.2% chance of covering based on the historical performance of my model and I’ll consider Pitt a Strong Opinion.
Strong Opinion – UNDER (53) – Utah (-2½) 25 OREGON STATE 22
I’m not that interested in the side here since my math model gives Utah a 54% chance to cover while Oregon State applies to a 56-9 ATS home dog off a bye angle that I’d prefer not to fade. However, the under has value in a matchup of two teams that are better on defense than on offense. Utah has averaged 5.6 yards per play for the season (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Utes are 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, yielding just 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Oregon State, meanwhile, is just 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) while their defense is 0.3 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average team).
Utah’s offense moved the ball very well in their first 2 games against bad defensive teams Idaho State and Fresno but the Utes have averaged 4.7 yppl or lower in 3 straight games against better defensive teams and my math model projects just 328 yards 5.1 yppl for Utah in this game against that better than average Beavers’ defense. Oregon State, meanwhile, has faced only one better than average defensive team and the Beavers were held to 181 yards at 3.2 yppl in that game at USC. I certainly expect better results than that, as my model projects 363 yard at 5.1 yppl for Oregon State tonight. The pace of this game is lower than what most would project because Oregon State, who runs their offense at a very slow pace (2.0 plays per minute of possession) tends to control the time of possession (33.8 minutes per game) while Utah’s faster paced offense (2.6 plays per minute) only has the ball on average 28.2 minutes per game. In this game the projection is from Oregon State to have possession for 36.6 minutes, which means even more time for the team that runs their offense at a slower pace and less time when the faster paced attack has possession. I don’t think that is factored into the over/under on this game and my math projects only 47 total points in this game. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 53 points or higher.
Vegas Butcher
Montreal Canadiens -125
Typically I would look to back a team that is seeking ‘playoff revenge’ early in the regular season, but this scenario is a little different. First, these teams hate each other. It’s a huge rivalry and I’m sure players from both sides have these games circled on their calendars. Second, I think Montreal will be just as motivated as Boston to play well in this game. Last year these teams played an epic 7-game playoff series for a chance to play in the Stanley Cup, with Montreal coming back to win the last 2 games, outscoring Boston 7 to 1 in the process. After the game, there was an incident in the handshake-line, where allegedly one of the Boston players told two Montreal players that “I’m going to f***ing kill you next year.” While ‘bulletin board’ material isn’t a big factor in an individual sport like baseball, it could be a factor in a physical, effort-based, plus team-based sport like hockey. Third, this is Boston’s 2nd road game of a b2b and their 3rd game in 4 days. They played a tight game against Colorado at home on the 13th, losing by 1 on a goal in the final seconds. Then yesterday, they played another really close and physical game @ Detroit, going to OT and then winning it in the shoot-out. By comparison, Montreal had 2 days off to rest and prepare for this one. Could be a pretty significant advantage from a physical standpoint, especially in the later period(s). And finally, the last factor that is in Montreal’s favor is that this is their home opener. Canadians are crazed about hockey as they love their sport probably even more than Americans love football. You better believe it that these fans at the game will treat this one as if it is a game 7 of a Stanley Cup Final. At the same time, that energy should rub off on the players as well, though I’m sure they’ll already be pretty jacked up to play their rival tonight. Lots of strong factors in Montreal’s favor here. Besides, Boston hasn’t looked very impressive at all so far. They are 2-3, but their first win against an 0-2-2 Flyers team came in the final minutes of the game and of course they needed a SO to win @ Detroit yesterday. Their -4 goal-differential so far is even worse than Montreal’s -3, who are 3-1 but lost their last game 7-1 @ Tampa, which was their 4th straight road-game. In any case, I think this is a great situational spot for the Canadiens, and if last year’s post-season wasn’t a total fluke, then we can confidently say that this team is just as good as the Bruins if not better. Back them with confidence tonight.