MLB Predictions
Giants / Cardinals Under 7
We will come right back with a play on the UNDER tonight. I will keep this write up short as not much has changed. Today we have Tim Lincecum on the mound for San Francisco. He has been pitching out of the bullpen in the postseason until tonight, with two relief appearances. He has worked 8.1 innings and given up just 3 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 9 and walking just 1. That includes 2 innings of no hit shutout relief vs the Cardinals. It seems as if he has found his stuff and is doing better with his control, which is dangerous for opponents - when he is on he is one of the better pitchers in baseball. I expect a solid outing from his tonight. Adam Wainright on the other hand is coming off a game in which he struggled going just 2.1 innings giving up 7 hits and 6 earned runs against the Nationals in Game 5 (in Washington). In Game 1 he was solid going 5.2 innings giving up 6 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 10 (at home). Wainwright has pitched better at home all season going 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .259 opponents batting average at home. Take note that while Lincecum struggled during the regular season, he owns a 5-1 record and 2.18 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and .176 opponents batting average all time in the post season. The UNDER is 5-2 in the Giants last 7 road games, and 6-2-1 in their last 9 playoff road games. If both pitchers pitch as they are capable of we should be in for a very low scoring game. Take the UNDER for 1 unit.
Harry Bondi
Oregon (-7.5) over Arizona State
The Sun Devils have been pointspread darlings this year under new head coach Todd Graham, going 5-0 SU and ATS. But this is still a relatively young team that won just six games last year and hasn't faced anywhere near the speed or talent of Oregon this season. Oregon is a veteran and road-tested team, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games away from home. The Ducks also had the benefit off a bye last week, so you can be sure they'll be ready and rested tonight to come out and prove they -- not Florida -- deserve that No. 2 spot in the BCS standings that were released earlier this week. After facing a schedule full of soft defenses, look for ASU sophomore QB Taylor Kelly to be flustered by the hard-charging, ball hawking Ducks defense. Arizona State has struggled when stepping up in class, losing 17 straight games to Top-10 teams, and that trend continues tonight.
Joe Gavazzi
Detroit -105
Many will shy away from fading NYY ace Sabathia in an elimination game. After all, CC is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in this year's playoffs with a lifetime playoff record for NYY of 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA. That excellence is matched by Scherzer. In his lone playoff start this season, he worked 5 1/3 IP allowing no earned runs with 8 Ks vs. Detroit. In 5 appearances vs. NYY Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA. He will be motivated by pitching behind a number of successful starts by the Detroit staff. With Verlander allowing just 1 run last night, Detroit starters retain a sub 1.00 ERA in the playoffs. That fits nicely with the negative momentum of the Yankees who have a .200 BA in these playoffs including .158 BA in this series. Tigers get the sweep.
Scott Delaney
My free baseball winner for Thursday afternoon will be on the Giants and Cardinals going over the posted 7, as I think these two are going to come out of the rain-delayed Game 3 firing out of the box.
The Cardinals are handing the ball to Adam Wainwright, who will be out for redemption after making the shortest start of his career in one of the biggest games he's pitched. Wainwright was chased from his second National League Divisional Series start in Game 5 after giving up six runs in 2-1/3 innings. He has an ERA of 7.88 this postseason and now he's looking to press against a Giants team that can stroke the long ball and will be out to avenge last night's loss.
The defending World Series champion Cardinals will be just as hungry, looking to send the Giants to the brink of elimination. I like them to get to Tim Lincecum, who might be 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA in the playoffs, but has been getting things done as a reliever. And while the two-time Cy Young Award winner has allowed just one run in 8-1/3 innings of relief this postseason, he's now taking the mound as a starter for Game 4, and lest we forget his regular-season struggles (5.18 ERA)? I just think he was better off coming in to shut things down, rather than opening himself up to get drilled over the long haul.
I'm playing this one high.
3♦ OVER Giants/Cardinals
Craig Davis
86-75 free play run.
Wednesday's free play is Under the total in the Yankees-Tigers game.
I gave you the Tigers and Yankees under last night as a 20-dime winner, but tonight I don't feel quite as strongly about it, so I'm giving it to you as a free play.
Have you seen the games in this series?? Even counting Game 1, which ended up going over, these games are all pitching and defensive battles that don't excite the people that are expecting to see a lot of runs.
Granted, every once in a while someone puts a charge into a ball... usually a Tiger... but even then the rally is limited to a run (or two at the most). With CC Sabathia on the mound, you know the Tigers runs are going to be at a premium.
He dominated the Orioles in his last start and I look for him to pick up right where he left off against them.
As for Max Scherzer, the Yankees are hitting a combined (dismal) .177 against him for their careers. Both Sabathia and Scherzer have been filthy this post-season, and if Scherzer was healthy all year, one can only wonder how well he would have done, in terms of the Cy Young race.
This game will be like all the others... low scoring.
Take the UNDER as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES-DETROIT UNDER
Jeff Benton
18-10 freebie run. Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Seattle-San Francisco NFL clash tonight.
Small total for sure, and based on Seattle's 24-23 win this past Sunday in a comeback against New England, it is tempting to back the Over in tonight's contest, but I cannot ignore Seattle's previous five games this season - all of which held Under the total.
San Francisco comes into this game having played Under the total in three of their last four games, and the Under in the series stands at 3-2-1 the past six times these NFC West rivals have tangled.
Look for Alex Smith to limit the turnovers tonight, and look for the points to be hard to come by.
Take the Seahawks-49ers to stay Under the total in this Thursday night edition tonight.
3♦ SEATTLE-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER
Matt Rivers
38-22 free play run heading into Thursday.
Tonight in college football, go with road favorite Houston minus the points over SMU.
The Cougars started the year at 0-3 both straight up and against the spread, but all of the sudden the light has gone on for first year coach Tony Levine's team, as the Cougars have won and covered three in a row both straight up and against the spread heading into this game against the Mustangs.
SMU has not looked good this year, and their loss to Tulane last week as the double-digit favorite did drop them to 2-4 on the campaign.
Houston has dominated the series, winning and covering three in a row. The Cougars are also 9-1 straight up the past ten times the schools have played, going 6-4 against the spread.
With Houston now on the rise and thinking about going bowling again this holiday season, have to lay the road chalk with the Cougars versus the slumping Mustangs.
3♦ HOUSTON