Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 2

Jimmy Boyd

Oregon -23

The Ducks come into this contest having covered the spread just once in their first four games and are coming off a less than impressive 38-31 win at Washington State. It's got the public thinking twice about taking Oregon as a 23-point favorite, but after a closer look I think the Ducks are poised to win here easily.

This is a big statement game for Oregon after suffering one of their worst losses in recent memory last year in a 16-42 defeat at Arizona. The Ducks weren't motivated at all for that game, as they had just had their national title hopes crushed a couple weeks earlier in a loss to Stanford. With this game being played on ESPN, I look for Oregon to come out on a mission to show everyone they are the real deal.

As for the Wildcats, I don't think this team is anywhere close to as good as their 4-0 record would indicate. Arizona has barely squeaked by with wins in each of their last 3 games against UTSA, Nevada and Cal. They scored 36-points in the 4th quarter to beat Cal 49-45 on a last second Hail Mary. The defense for Arizona is not good at all and I don't see them digging out of a big hole against the Ducks.

One of the key differences from last year's team that beat Oregon and the one that will take the field on Thursday is the Wildcats no longer have star running back Ka'Deem Carey, who rushed 48 times for 206 yards and 4 touchdowns. Arizona's ground attack allowed them to dominate the time of possession (35:29 to 24:31) and keep the Ducks' offense out of rhythm. I just don't see that being the case against a motivated Oregon defense at home.

Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who are averaging 6.4 or more yards/play after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in each of their last two games are 30-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 88% system in favor of the Ducks.

Jim Feist

Florida Atlantic at Florida International
Pick: Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic is favored, on a 2-1 run beating Texas San Antonio with 41 points, blowing out Tulsa with 50 points and nearly winning at Wyoming, a 20-19 defeat. The Owls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games, 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall. Florida International has home field but has dropped 2 of 3 with no offense, averaging 21.6 ppg. The Golden Panthers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

Rob Vinciletti

Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International
Play: Florida Atlantic -6

Florida International comes home off a big road dog win as a 14 point dog. That win sets them up in a system that plays against home teams that are now an underdog and are playing an opponent off a win with a win percentage of .600 or less. Florida Atlantic has played a tougher schedule and has some gaudy trends on their side. FAU has covered 8 of 10 on Turf, the last 4 on the road if the total is 42 to 49, 8 of the last 9 in weeks 5-9 and 15 of the last 18 on 6 or less days rest. Florida International has lost straight up and ats the last 2 times as a home dog in this range. We will back the better team in Florida Atlantic.

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Hollywood Sports

Arizona at Oregon
Play: Oregon

Oregon (4-0) will have revenge on their mind against this Wildcats team that handed them a 42-13 loss last November which was their biggest setback for this program since 2008 and only loss to an unranked football team over that span. Quarterback Marcus Mariota was hobbled by a sprained ankle at that point of the season but he should be raring to go at full strength for this rematch. The Ducks had an extra week to prepare for this contest and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after their bye week. Additionally, Oregon has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Arizona (4-0) has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Pac-12 play. And in their last 7 games on the road, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. Take Oregon minus the points in this one.

Sleepyj

Houston -3

The Houston Cougars are looking to make it 2 in a row at home tonight. Houston hold the nations 24th ranked defense and it just might get better tonight against UCF..UCF on offense is ranked #117 in the rush and #93 in the pass...Plain and simple this UCF team isn't all that good. UCF hasn't faced a team like Houston on the road as of yet. Well i guess we can say Missouri, but i think Missouri is better than Houston. Houston has been playing better and i trust this team at home with a strong defense. The defense for Houston is very underrated and i would be surprised if they let up more than 21 points in this game..On the flip side for Houston they are getting the ball moving on offense as they rank 76th pass and 72nd rush...They really got the ball moving last week Vs. UNLV and played a game effort on the road at BYU..It took a few games but i think this will be the breakout game for the Cougars...They have a favorable schedule and can make a bowl this year if they can get past teams like UCF. My gut feeling here after watching these two teams says the line wont factor and neither will UCF..Houston wins comfortable in this one.

DAVE COKIN

KANSAS CITY ROYALS AT LOS ANGELES ANGELS
PLAY: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -170

This is a price you’ll basically never see me lay in a regular season game. But the playoffs are a different animal, and for me it’s a case of sacrificing value if necessary when the matchup dictates doing so. I see that being the situation tonight.

Props to the Royals for an amazing win in the Wild Card game as they rallied to knock off Oakland. But now the Royals have to find a way to avoid the letdown, even though they’re certainly able to play the no respect game here.

We’ll find out shortly, but I sure won’t be surprised if KC is just happy to still be playing. In a sense, while I’m sure they want to win it all, this team has accomplished its objective. They did so in close to unbelievable fashion on Monday night, and I’m of the belief they’re going to have a tough time getting that intensity level back, at least in Game One against the Angels.

I don’t like this matchup at all for the Royals. They’re up against a very good Halos offense, and while Kansas City was a real road warrior this season, the Angels are the best home team in baseball. The hosts are also able to neutralize what has been the big edge for the Royals all season. The Angels have a great bullpen of their own, so the late inning advantage that KC has enjoyed against most opponents doesn’t really exist here.

I’m not sure how well the Halos rotation is going to hold up as the playoffs progress. The starters could be vulnerable against the Tigers or Orioles, two squads with big bats that are very capable of putting together big innings. But that isn’t as much of an issue here, and the task for Jered Weaver and company here will be to just let it go for six innings and then hand it off to the late inning shutdown guys.

Jason Vargas will throw for KC tonight, and he’s heading into the post-season in lousy form. Vargas got hit hard down the stretch and that really doesn’t bode well for him against this very potent Angels lineup. Weaver was not razor sharp in his final regular season outing, but had a good September. Weaver is becoming prone to the long ball, no question about it, but the Royals don’t figure as a team likely to exploit that liability.

In a regular season setting, I would call this unplayable at the high price. But I’m far less likely to be bashful about firing on chalk in the playoffs, and that’s the story tonight. This is not a bad spot to try manufacturing a -1 line, playing half the wager on the Angels money line and the other half gambling on the -1.5. Either way, expect the Angels to go up 1-0 with the victory tonight.

MLB Predictions

Angels -1.5 +126

Tonight the Royals try and have short memories, as the celebration is over and they look towards a series with the Angels. I think Kansas City is going to make a good series out of it, but in game 1 I don't see it. It will be hard for them not to have a hangover effect after winning their first post-season win in decades. The Angels will have the benefit of going with their ace, Jered Weaver, while Kansas will have to go with Jason Vargas. Vargas is one of the more inconsistent pitchers in the majors. He started off horribly, had a good stretch, and now is pitching some of his worst ball of the season. His last three starts have yielded an ERA of 9.60 with a 1.66 WHIP. His last four starts have produced 4, 5, 5, and 4 runs against. Additionally, Vargas has given up 22 runs in his last five starts. The Angels are hitting .270 against left-handed pitching. I can't say that Weaver has been lights out, 3.60 ERA his last three starts, but before allowing 4 in his last start, Weaver went 8 in a row without allowing more than 3 runs. The Royals haven't played Weaver since 2012, in two starts he allowed just 2 runs. Vargas gave up 6 runs in his last start against the Angels this season. The Angels are not just supposed to win a series this year, they're a favorite to win it all. They should show some muscle immediately tonight. At a pretty nice price I'll take them at -1.5.

Chip Chirimbes

Arizona vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -23.5

How this sets up, a pair of Top-25 ranked 4-0 PAC-12 teams facing off the first weekend of October. The Arizona Wildcats (4-0) enter Autzen Stadium off last years routing of the Ducks 42-16 and I don't think that's going to help them this week. No. 4 Oregon (4-0) will be ready to blow this team out as the huge Vegas 'number' tells us so. Both clubs are 1-3 ATS but the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Although they are undefeated Arizona is 0-6 ATS after a straight-up win.

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Andre Gomes

Detroit Tigers -109

For this first game of the series, I feel that the Tigers have a better "spot" than BAL and more importantly, they have a considerable edge on the mound working for them today.

I expect DET to be "sharper" in handling this contest… they had a tight battle against KC for the division title in which every game mattered, while BAL even though they could have grabbed home court edge through the playoffs, they didn't put much focus on it as they finished the regular season 3-5 L8 games and failed to hit .200 or more in the L4 games!

Regarding the matchups, I expect BAL's SP Chris Tillman to have some problems facing DET's lineup.

Tillman enjoyed a nice 2nd half season w/ 2.33 ERA but as usual w/ him, his advanced stats were a bit worse: 3.38 ERA & 3.48 xFIP! His month of September wasn't that good and this a bad sign b/c of his L6 opponents TOR, BOS, NYY, BOS, CIN & MIN, only the Twins were a good offense in this second half of season! After some slumps and w/ a healthier Miguel Cabrera, DET's offense was back in track and finished the month of September being #2 top ranked offense in the league!

On the other end, DET's SP Max Scherzer also enjoyed a fine 2nd half of season w/ 2.87 ERA! However, unlike Tillman, his advanced numbers are supporting such stellar ERA number: 2.70 FIP & 3.12 xFIP! Note also that unlike Tillman, Scherzer faced some tough matchups lately by facing twice MIN, twice KC, CLE & CWS. All these teams were in the top15 offense in the 2nd half! Finally, unlike Tillman, Scherzer didn't face the Orioles this season (Tillman had one start vs. DET early in the season) and so, I expect Scherzer to be better than Tillman today. Obviously, the bullpen could be a problem for the Tigers, but we are getting Scherzer w/ nice rest so this potential problem might appear in the series for DET but not now!

LT Profits

Royals at Angels
Pick: Under 8

After the two wild card games went ‘over’, look for the pitchers to take over in Game 1 of the ALDS with Jason Vargas and the Kansas City Royals facing Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels. Weaver may not be the strikeout pitcher he once was with his velocity way down, but to his credit he re-invented himself this year and still posted good numbers at 18-9 with a 3.59 ERA. While his strikeout rate was down, he still had a good ratio of 169 strikeouts vs. 65 walks in 213.1 innings. Also, seemingly out of nowhere, Weaver did have 24 strikeouts in 20 innings in his last three starts, so could it be has rediscovered some extra zip? Vargas was better than his 11-10 record as he had a 3.71 ERA and 128 strikeouts vs. 41 walks. The ‘under’ is 19-6-1 in the Angels’ last 26 home games vs. teams with winning records.

Tom Barton

Arizona vs. Oregon
Pick: Under 80

Oh no I am committing the ultimate sin here taking and under in a Ducks game at home no less! But let's step away from perception and look at reality for a moment. First this is not the Ducks of old. They are face paced still, sure, but not like Chip Kelly ran in fact they got two delay of game penalties last time out. Next they are also not in a position to have to get style points with the new playoff system they know if they get out with a win they will remain in contention of the top 4 spots. Lastly their star QB has been banged up so no reason to leave the starters in late like we have seen in the past. Now onto more reality. How many times have the Ducks gone over 80 in the total this year? The answer is none. Not on time in fact this teams total hasn't gone over 80 since October 19th last year against a Washington State team that set the all time record for passing attempts scoring 28 4th quarter points in a route. So that's once in the last 21 games we have seen a total go over this infalted number. Arizona went over last week at home and it's been since 2012 since that's happened. The at home was a key point here as their young QB and offense looked out of sorts in it's only road game this year only scoring 26 against a Texas San Antonio team who just allowed 41 and 43 to Okie State and Florida Atlantic. A true road test will rattle this young team and the Ducks D will want to prove something. The Wildcats offensive numbers look nice but taking on teams with a combined 8-9 record and the 119th, 107th and 87th ranked D will do that. Oregon meanwhile is the best ranked D they will run into at 46th in the country and have just held the 3rd best scoring offense in Michigan State to only 27 and high flying Wazzu to 31. I think Arizona can get to the upper 20's but that would need Oregon to close in on 60. This game will be high scoring and may even reach 70 but 80 is inflated and I'll take the cardinal sin of taking an Oregon under.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +8½ over GREEN BAY

There have been four Thursday games so far and each week has been a blowout of 20 or more points. In Week 1, it was Seattle 36-16 over Green Bay. In Week 2, Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh 26-6 and who can forget Week 3, when Atlanta whacked the Bucs, 56-14. Last week it was the Giants turn, as they went into Washington and crushed the Redskins 45-14. Those short week blowouts suggest that the better prepared team is in a great position to win comfortably. Frankly, we have not seen the Packers look well-prepped this entire year. They were ruined by the Seahawks in Week 1, they barely escaped the Jets in Week 2, they scored 7 points in Detroit in Week 3 and finally last week they destroyed the Bears, 38-17. Some may suggest they were well prepared last week but anyone that watched that game knows otherwise. Chicago moved the ball at will on the Pack, gaining chunks of yards almost every play. The Packers looked completely lost on defense, as the Bears racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense and gained an average of 8 yards per play. The only reason the Bears won was because of two untimely picks by Jay Cutler that put the game out of reach. Chicago outgained the Packers on the ground, 235 to 56 and by 140 yards overall in what turned out to be one of this year’s most misleading scores. Right now, the Packers couldn’t defend Australia in a game of Risk.

The reports are that Teddy Bridgewater is a game-time decision but our sources say he will not go tonight. We will wait until later to make our decision on whether or not to pull the trigger on the Vikings due to his status. Assuming he doesn’t go, we’ll pass because Christian Ponder is a big drop in class that rarely performs well.

The first start for Teddy Bridgewater resulted in 317 pass yards, no turnovers, no sacks and five runs for 27 yards and a score. More importantly, the Vikes’ personnel feels like they have a great chance of winning with Bridgewater playing and state of mind plays a huge role in the outcome of these games. No question that the Packers have played a tougher schedule than the Vikings have. That Vikings loss to the Patriots without Bridgewater looks much worse now than it did at the time but it’s further proof that Minnesota is not playable unless Bridgewater goes. In the end, we’re not spotting 8½-points with the Pack under any circumstance right now but will surely take the points if Bridgewater does go. We’ll update this as soon as that info regarding Bridgewater is available and if he’s a no go, it’s a pass.

SPORTS WAGERS

Central Florida +3 over HOUSTON

Houston is 2-2 and they came close to defeating #25 BYU a couple of weeks ago as a 17-point pooch….well, sort of. The score read BYU 33 – Houston 25 but BYU led 16-0 after one quarter, they outgained Houston by over 300 yards in the air and they pretty much breezed to an easy victory after that first quarter. The score is very flattering to Houston. The Cougars other three games this year occurred against UTSA, UNLV and Grambling State. They lost to the Roadrunners (UTSA) by 20 points while blowing out those two other aforementioned cupcakes. Truth is, Houston is not very good. They struggle in the passing game, they struggle to defend and they’ve also had a soft schedule in three of its four games. The Cougars get way too much credit in the betting line because of their reputation over the years of having a prolific offense and we’re going to take advantage of the market’s perception of this very average football team.

Central Florida’s stock is way down because they come in 1-2 and began the year without Blake Bortles (drafted No. 3 overall) and all-conference RB Storm Johnson (7th round). That leaves a pair of unknowns at QB and RB in Justin Holman (sophomore) and William Stanback, who ran for 443 yards and six scores on 105 carries as Johnson's backup a year ago and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year. The Knights opened the year overseas in Ireland against Penn State and lost 26-24. Two weeks later they returned to play Mizzou in Missouri and lost 38-10 as a 10-point pooch. With an 0-2 record and with everyone forgetting about their win over Baylor in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, things got much easier for UCF last week when they walloped Bethune-Cookman, 41-7. The Knights now come into this game well under the radar. The odds makers thought highly of UCF earlier when they made #20 Missouri just a 10-point favorite over them. The Knights return plenty of starters on a defense that ranked in the top 20 in the country a year ago. Remember, the Knights went 12-1 last season under Head Coach George O’Leary, who is a master at preparation. The Knights have always scheduled a tough, non-conference schedule and it has served them well in the past in preparing for conference play against weaker competition. They open up conference play here and we can assure you they’ll be ready with their very capable offense and outstanding defense. We’re calling the upset here and will play UCF in a couple money-line parlays but will gladly take the points in this single wager.

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit (1st 5 inns) -114 over BALTIMORE

In a full game, the Tigers are risky because their bullpen is by far the worst of all the teams in the post-season. Even a three-run lead in the ninth isn’t safe with this group of bullpen stiffs that make you sweat out just about every game. By contrast, if the Orioles get to the seventh inning with a lead it’s practically lights out for the opposition because they have the best 3-man close it out group in the league. The good news is that we have an option to eliminate the pens and that’s precisely what we’ll do here with Max Scherzer against Chris Tillman.

Tillman had a ho-hum first half (4.11 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) and shoddy skills to go along with it. He looked like a new pitcher in the second half with 7.8 K’s per nine, 1.2 BB/9 and a 45% groundball rate. However, Tillman’s average 8% swing and miss rate and 60% first pitch strike in the 2H does not support the elite level of command he posted. Tillman doesn’t throw enough strikes and in a pressure situation, his control might get a lot worse. Tillman walked 10 batters in his final 36 innings. His post-All-Star 22% hit rate and 82% strand rate are further warning signs that he’s walking a very thin line. Pay much more attention to Tillman’s overall 4.21 xERA and 1.35 WHIP than to his actual 3.34 ERA. We put Tillman in the same class as Edinson Volquez, that being a pitcher with misleading stats and a pitcher that is a huge risk.

While Scherzer had some rough outings in May and June, his year-long numbers look awfully familiar to his Cy Young numbers from last season. Despite the occasional clunker, Scherzer hasn’t slowed down at all since last year. His first half struggles were mostly due to an unlucky hit rate. His skills, however, are close to a mirror image of 2013. Scherzer's second half ERA is very good, but that’s also due to a swing on hit % and strand %. Again, very stable skills. The only place Scherzer has regressed slightly is in his performance against righties; while he was unworldly last year, he’s merely impressive this year. Scherzer struck out 252 batters in 220 innings. He has an elite swing and miss rate and let’s not forget that when he pitches, the Tigers usually win. Scherzer went 18-5 this year and 21-3 last year. Tillman has six losses this season and Scherzer has five. That’s similar but there is nothing similar at all regarding the skills of these two pitchers and it’s not in Tillman’s favor. Spotting under 20 cents with Scherzer against Tillman is a bet we would make 100% of the time and we certainly make no exceptions here.

NOTE: We’re passing on the Royals/Angels Game 1. As much as we dislike Jared Weaver’s skills, Jason Vargas is also a big risk that can’t be trusted. Weaver somehow wins games, especially at home but don’t be surprised if he gets whacked tonight.