Jack Jones
Houston Cougars -3
A 14-19 loss at UCF last year cost Houston a chance to win the American Athletic. That was the same UCF team that won the AAC and went on to beat Baylor 52-42 in the BCS Fiesta Bowl. The Cougars were only outgained 367-398 by the Knights as a 13.5-point road underdog in that contest. The Knights are nowhere near as good as they were last year with the loss of Blake Bortles, while the Cougars should be just as good if not better this season with a whopping 17 starters back.
Sure, the season-opening loss to UTSA is concerning, but the Cougars simply beat themselves in that game by committing six turnovers. They have three impressive performances since that defeat with blowout wins over Grambling (47-0) and UNLV (47-14), as well as a 25-33 loss to unbeaten BYU as a 17-point road underdog. This Houston defense is playing very well this season, allowing just 18.5 points and 335.0 yards per game.
Obviously, the Knights weren’t going to be as effective on offense with the loss of Bortles, but they have been simply atrocious on this side of the ball in 2014. They are only averaging 298.7 yards per game offensively to rank 120th out of 128 FBS teams. They managed just 246 yards against Penn State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the 24-26 score would indicate as they were outgained by 265 yards. They were also held to 299 yards in a 10-38 loss to Missouri. Perhaps the most concerning effort was the 351 yards they put up against FCS opponent Bethune Cookman.
Simply put, Houston is tired of losing to UCF and will be out for blood in this one. The Knights have won three straight meetings in this series, but all three victories came by a touchdown or less. I believe this Houston team is finally the better squad and has the talent to put an end to the losing streak in this series. I really like the way that the Cougars have played in the last three games, and their defense should be able to shut down a very weak UCF offense.
UCF is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 vs. teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers per game. The Knights are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a home win. Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per game in their previous game. The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Houston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 vs. a team with a losing record.
Patrick Webb
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International
Play: Florida International +6
In what is likely to be an ugly game I will take the home team and the points. FIU has a fairly solid defense that has given up some big plays in their losses to PITT and Louisville but has three solid defensive metrics that stack nicely versus FAU's offense. FIU may have found a passing game last week in their win over UAB and should be able to get some traction on offense against a FAU defense that has been overpowered by a tough out of conference schedule. FAU is 4-0 ATS so far this season, but I look for FIU to possibly win this game S.U. and certainly cover the 6 points.
Steve Janus
Tigers/Orioles Under 7
Even after watching both Wild Card games fly over the total, I like the value we are getting with a key number of 7 in tonight's matchup between the Tigers and Orioles. Both of these teams have been off since Sunday and I think the long layoff is going to have both teams struggling at the plate against two top notch starters.
Detroit sends out the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Max Scherzer, who finished 18-5 with 3.19 ERA and 1.175 WHIP over 33 starts. Scherzer has allowed just 1 home run over his 5 starts and as we all know the Orioles rely heavily on the long ball to generate runs. This will also be the first time that the Orioles will have seen Scherzer this season, which is a big advantage for Scherzer. I'm not expecting much from the Tigers offense either, as Baltimore will send out Chris Tillman, who finished with an impressive 2.54 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over 18 home starts. In his only start against the Tigers this season, Tillman allowed just 1 run on 5 hits over 8 1/3 innings of work.
Key Trends - UNDER is 7-0-1 in Tigers last 8 Divisional Playoff road games, 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 starts against at team with a winning record and 6-1-1 in Tillman's last 8 home starts as an underdog.
System - UNDER is 45-24 (65%) in games with a total of 7 runs or less when you have a road team that's hitting between .265 to .279 against a starter with an ERA of 4.20 or better and are starting a pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.300 or better.
Sam Martin
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
This line is a bit too high for us to release as a premium selection, but we still believe the Packers can cover this number against the visiting Vikings. Minnesota shocked us with their outright win against Atlanta last week, but that only puts them in a big letdown spot on a short week with travel against the Packers.
Aaron Rodgers told Packers fans to relax after a slow start, and apparently he was right as Green Bay crushed the Bears 38-17. Rodgers looked like his old self finishing with over 300 yards passing and four touchdowns. Minnesota has been hurt through the air defensively this season and are now in a 4-15 ATS spot coming off an outright win as a home underdog. This line feels like a trap begging for Vikings money, but we'll go the other way expecting a blowout win!
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Angels -175
The Royals are coming off of a huge come from behind extra innings win against the A's on Tuesday night, but this is a tough spot. It will be hard for the Royals to match their intensity in this quick turnaround on the road. The Angels send their best pitcher Jared Weaver to the mound while the Royals are giving the start to a struggling Jason Vargas. Vargas has failed to get out of the fourth inning and his last two starts and has allowed at least four runs in his last four starts. Vargas ERA in the month of September is over six and in two starts against the Angels this season Vargas has allowed seven runs on twelve hits in just 10 1/3 innings. Suddenly -$175 looks pretty cheap.
Green Bay Packers -7.5
At first glance getting the Vikings plus ten points in this match up looked attractive, and a lot of folks jumped on board as this line is now down to just eight points, but I believe the Packers are the play. Green Bay's run defense has been a question mark, but with either Teddy Bridgewater nursing a sore ankle or Christian Ponder under center I don't believe the Vikings will run wild on Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers took the panic out of the city with the way this Green Bay offense torched the Bears and I expect them to continue to have success against this Vikings defense. The Packers are one of only five NFL teams that are averaging less than 320 total yards per game, but they’ve also had to play three of the top six defenses in the NFL over their first four games. Asking a rookie who is less than 100% healthy, making his first NFL road start on a short week (or Christian Ponder) to trade scores with Aaron Rodgers and the Pack is asking way too much in my opinion. The Vikings defense is improving, but with the Packers doing to a much more up-tempo offense, Minnesota won't be able to rotate their defensive linemen as much as they would like to keep them fresh. Green Bay is 0-6-1 against the spread in their last seven home games going back to last season, but lets not forget that most of those games were without an injured Aaron Rodgers. Also, Minnesota is just 4-15 against the spread after an upset win as a home underdog since 1992. Lay it if your gonna play it.
Tony Finn
Florida Atlantic at Florida Int
Play: Under 46.5
Nearly every College Football fan, analyst, expert and pundit will tell you this isn't much of a game. We will, however, argue that every game, regardless of school and talent, has some fateful opening into its soul that makes an investment worthwhile and sensible. These experts and pundits will tell you that Atlantic is the better team and that International isn't much of a threat on offense. We won't argue long or hard on the semantics of either claim and we won't even make an attempt to compare the two schools ability or inability to win outright, but instead ask you to follow us down a different path and make an attempt to determine whether the contest tonight between Florida Atlantic and Florida International in Miami has investment value on the total.
Florida Atlantic has failed to cover in three straight meetings in this series, although the Owls won 21-6 with convincing numbers in last year's meet, holding FIU to just 132 yards, they didn't cover the +27 that most offshore stores closed at resulting in an ATS failure for the third straight season. Both teams are coming off upset wins last week and the winner of this game should emerge in the Conference USA East race or at least the bowl picture with an outright win.
The Owls have played the tougher schedule on paper and with that have the better offensive numbers. The Panthers have been good defensively creating 17 turnovers in five games. The fact that many are calling these two Conference USA squads bottom feeders or an example of just how far C-USA has fallen as a league, goes a bit too far. The 2-3 Owls have already taken the field against five FBS foes, including Alabama and Nebraska, and have two wins. The 2-3 Golden Panthers have dropped a test to FCS club Bethune-Cookman (lost 14-12) but did show team improvement with an upset
There are some variables that make one side in this contest a value play, something we will avoid discussing since the Finn Factor has a Thu Nite Fox Sports Smash release on the store shelf right now, one you can find at THIS LINK. We will use the following digits to morph this game into an OVER/UNDER coup, however, as FIU is 1-14 SU in its last 15 home games (only
win against Wagner) while FAU is 4-0-1 ATS in weekday roadies and a well prepared 12-3-1 ATS away since 2012.
So while everything points to an easy win by Florida Atlantic why did the oddsmakers open this contest allowing the Owls to play this league game out while giving up less than double digit points?
Why has the pointspread moved from -9 to -6.5 when nearly 60 percent of the public is backing FAU?
The Underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS the last five years.
The Under is 7-3 in Owls last 10 road games while the Panthers have a laundry list of reasons to stay south of this oddsmakers 46.5 point total. .
The Under is 13-3-1 in Golden Panthers last 17 October games; 16-4-1 in Golden Panthers last 21 games following an ATS win; 10-3 in Golden Panthers last 13 games overall and 20-6-1 in Golden Panthers last 27 when squaring off against a team with a losing record.
Take away the two big plays in the Panthers win over UAB and International gained only 137 yards at Birmingham and defense is FIU's strength.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Arizona/ Oregon Over 70: Well I made a play on this game very early and now the line is up 9 points. I still expect it to come down may a point or two, but in any case i see a ton of points coming in this game. The Arizona offense is explosive, just like the Washington state one is and the Cougs put up 499 yards and 31 points in that game. Arizona should be able to 30+ in this one as well. For the Ducks, they once again have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging 48.5 ppg and they have had a week off for this one so they should really be ready to go offensively. I look for them to put up 50+ here, especially since they are looking for payback from a 26 point loss at Arizona last year, in a game that they were held to just 16 points. I know Oregon put up just 38 points at Washington State, but they also put up 46 on a tough Michigan State defense and 48 on an underrated Wyoming defense. No reason they can't put up 50+ on this bad Arizona defense. I may not have had it as a top play at 79, but I still do like the play. 54-30 sounds about right for this one.
BEST OF THE REST
Florida Atlantic/ Florida International Under 47: Both teams have played in higher than normal scoring games for them of late, but I don't see that happening here. FAU has struggled on defense, but they have also had road games vs Alabama and Nebraska to start the year which has skewed these numbers a bit. Tonight they will be taking on an FIU squad that is 125th in the nation in total offense (271.6 ypg) and 105th in scoring (21.6 ppg). The FAU Defense should have a better showing tonight, much like they did when they went on the road and allowed just 334 yards and 20 points to a bad Wyoming offense. The FAU offense has put up big point totals in 2 of their last 3 games, but still they come in averaging just 313.6 ypg (114th) and 23.4 ppg (98th). They will take on an FIU defense that has been pretty solid this year, allowing just 317.8 ypg (23rd) and 22.6 ppg (50th). Neither team plays at a fast pace, which should really help keep the scoring down here as well. This will be a higher scoring game than last years which put up just 27 points, but still I don't see it topping 40 points.
Bob Balfe
Baltimore Orioles +105
It is so hard to predict these postseason matchups where almost everything is even. Detroit is a great road team, but Baltimore is a better home team and are great against right handed pitching this year. You also have to give the edge to the Baltimore Bullpen. I think we finally will start to see a lower scoring type game today. Let’s take the home team with the shutdown bullpen.
Dave Price
Florida International +6.5
With a pair of rock solid system in play, the FIU Golden Panthers get the call as Thursday's free selection. Home teams off a double-digit win over a conference opponent are 94-49 ATS since 1992 if they are up against an opponent that's off an upset victory at home. In addition, fading road teams off an upset home win over a conference rival has produced an 83-39 ATS mark since 1992 if they are matched up with an opponent that's off a double-digit victory over a conference foe. FIU had won two straight in the series by double digits before falling 21-6 at FAU last season. That defeat assures us the Golden Panthers will be out for a little revenge here. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona at Oregon
Pick: Under
While many are blinded by the pyrotechnics on each of these sides, note that Oregon and Arizona have not come close to tonight's high 70s "total" the past two seasons, landing on 49 and 58, respectively. Oregon has also not exceeded this "total" in ten straight games dating to mid 2013. The high 70s is too high for this Pac-12 matchup.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the UCF Knights over Houston as a slight road underdog.
If I know anything about football, it's that an average offense can look very good against a bad defense... and that's exactly what we have here tonight. UCF is a very average offense that can barely run the ball, but against a Houston defense that allows points and yards like they're going out of style, I think we have a better than average chance of not only getting the cover, but the SU win.
True, Houston's offense is rather balanced and could pose some problems for UCF if they keep that balance, but there's got to be a reason the Knights are only a field goal road dog, right? Vegas isn't stupid and they know how UCF's defense is capable of turning the ball over and changing the field position game.
UCF QB Justin Holman has completed 61% of his passes and has a very talented group of receivers that should be able to help keep UCF drives alive.
The Knights have won three straight vs. Houston including last year's 19-14 thriller. Advantage UCF.
Take the Knights as your free play of the day.
2♦ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Arizona Wildcats to keep it closer than expected in Eugene tonight when they visit the Oregon Ducks.
Major payback for the Ducks who were upended last season in Tucson, as that loss kept Oregon from playing in the Pacific 12 title game.
Oregon should get their payback, but the linesmakers have made life tough if you are a Ducks backer, as they are just 2-8 against the spread their last 10 regular season affairs.
Arizona is not noted for their defensive prowess, but the Wildcats do feature some big time play-makers on the offensive side of the football, and that leads me to believe that the Wildcats can stay inside of this roomy impost.
I say take the points and the 'Cats tonight.
3♦ ARIZONA
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the OVER in tonight's college football clash between Central Florida and Houston, as I see this one in the 60s.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with UCF - On the road, the Golden Knights will need some sort of momentum to steal this win in the teams' American Athletic Conference opener at TDECU Stadium. Since UCF leads the series, 4-1, and four of the games in the series have been decided by seven points or less, I suspect Central Florida will have all the confidence and momentum it'll need to score.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with Houston - Houston has seen its first four games stay under the posted total. And twice the Cougars have scored 47 points. The other two games it scored seven points in the season-opener, and in the other 25 with the final tally landing on 58. This is a game Houston will be ready to light up, as it comes in off a bye week.
In conclusion, why the OVER is my SMART PLAY in this game - Once Central Florida gets rolling, and into the season, it scores some points. So I'm not worried that it has stayed under in two of its first three games. The Golden Knights are in on a 13-3 over run in the month of October.
On the other hand, Houston thrives in primetime games and also this month. The Cougars are in on over runs of 6-1 on Thursdays and 5-1 in the month of October. This is a statement game - for both - and Houston will be looking to make a statement in this one, opening conference play with a victory.
4♦ Central Florida-Houston OVER
Brad Wilton
Going to side with the pitching to dominate the hitting in the first game of this Detroit-Baltimore series on Thursday night, as Max Scherzer and Chris Tillman do the mound work from Camden Yards.
The game starts at 5:35 pm eastern time, so expect the shadows to play a factor in the pitchers gaining the extra edge in this one. Scherzer went 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his 4 postseason starts last year, and is facing the O's for the first time since the 2013 season when he allowed 4 runs in his 14 innings pitched.
Chris Tillman had a string of 20 straight starts in which he allowed 3 runs or less snapped in his last start of the season last Friday against Toronto. He did defeat the Tigers in his lone start against them this year, way back in April when he allowed one run in his 8-plus innings worked.
Detroit enters on a 6-2-1 Under run their last 9 games, while Baltimore is 7-2-1 Under their last 10 games played in Charm City. Go with the Under in Game One.
2♦ DETROIT-BALTIMORE UNDER
Mike O'Connor
Minnesota (+7.5) 23 GREEN BAY 27
After a very good first start last week, rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater will look to keep the momentum going if he can play – as of this writing he looks to be a game-time decision. If he can’t go, back-up Christian Ponder will get the start. The Vikings may actually be better off with Ponder tonight if Bridgewater is limited in any way as it has been a short week with travel and Ponder has experience as a starter. In fact, the Vikings new coaching staff have been impressed with Ponder and wonder how his career trajectory might have been different under their coaching at an earlier stage. Either way, the keys in this game are the ability of the Vikings to run the ball on a bad Packer run defense and the Vikings pass defense slowing down the Packers aerial attack. After a couple of poor rushing performances in their previous two games, the Vikings had a great day last week on the ground, rushing for 241 yards at 5.5 ypr against the Falcons. Part of that was the balance that they demonstrated with a passing attack that generated 317 passing yards at 10.6 yps, opening up the field and creating additional space. They’ll face a Packers rush defense that is allowing 178 yards at 4.9 ypr--last in the league-- and just gave up 235 yards at 5.7 ypr to the Bears last week. This is a clear advantage to the Vikings and if they can generate any sort of production out of their passing game, they should be able to keep this one close.
Stopping the Packers passing attack is a tall order however and may be too much for the Vikings in this game. Minnesota has been better than average in defending the pass so far this season and new head coach Mike Zimmer has cooked up some defensive schemes in the past that have minimized Rodgers damage. In their previous two match-ups in Cincinnati, Green Bay went 0-2 while Rodgers threw for an average of 252.5 yards, completing 57.3% of his passes with two touchdowns with two interceptions. The Bengals have had more talent but this Minnesota defense has potential and should be able to slow down a Packers offense that has been devoid of any semblance of a running game so far this season (averaging 74 yards at 3.6 ypr) and couldn’t generate any traction last week against a poor Bears rush defense.
Minnesota qualifies in a 662-491-4 fundamental rushing situation and my model only favors the Packers here by about 6.5 points but with the short week and travel it’s not strong enough for me to consider as a Best Bet, so I’ll just lean with the Vikings plus the points.