Dr. Bob
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+6½) 22 Florida Atlantic 24
The line on this game came crashing down from an opening number of 9 ½ points but there is still some value in backing the defensively solid home dog. Florida International has yielded just 4.7 yards per play to 5 teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team and the Panthers’ stop unit has a slight edge over an FAU offense that rates at 0.1 yppl better than average with quarterback Jaquez Johnson in the game. The match up that will determine this game is the battle between FIU’s horrible offense (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and FAU’s horrible defense that’s given up 6.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. The Owls’ were overmatched the first two weeks of the season at Nebraska (allowed 784 yards at 8.6 yppl) and at Alabama (620 yards at 8.9 yppl) but they’ve still been bad defensively, on a relative basis, the last 3 weeks against 3 weak offensive teams. The Owls allowed 5.0 yppl to Tulsa, Wyoming, and UTSA offenses that would combine to average only 4.5 yppl against an average team, so they’ve still been worse than average even if you take out their horrible performances the first two weeks. Either way, FAU’s defense does have an advantage and I’ll use their defensive rating from the last 3 weeks rather than including the two games against teams with superior talent. Using only the last 3 games for Florida Atlantic’s defense would result in a prediction of just 313 yards at 4.7 yards per play for FIU’s offense while the math model projects 337 yards at 5.2 yppl for the Owls. Overall the math favors Florida Atlantic by 5 points even after taking out their two worst games. Further support for backing the home dog comes from a very negative 1-32-1 ATS subset of a 12-63-2 ATS letdown situation that applies to Florida Atlantic. FIU is also in a letdown situation following their upset win at UAB, but that situation (18-52 ATS) isn’t as significant – although it’s enough for keeping me off this game as a Best Bet. I like the Panthers plus the points here and I’d consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
HOUSTON (-2½) 26 UCF 24
I really don’t have much on this game, as my math model favors Houston by 1.6 points with a total of 50.4 points. Houston does have some upside potential given how quarterback John O’Korn has significantly underperformed compared to last year’s numbers (just 5.2 yards per pass play this season despite facing teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Houston’s defense is playing very well and has once again made a habit of forcing turnovers (3.25 defensive turnovers per game after leading the nation last season). Still, my model picks this too close to the number and I recommend passing on this game.
Harry Bondi
OREGON (-24) over Arizona
Coming off a disappointing win over Washington State and playing with revenge for a 42-16 loss to Arizona last year, we expect the Ducks to bury Arizona tonight. Add in the fact that Oregon has had a week off to prepare and that the Wildcats have the second worst pass defense in the Pac-12 and it's "Katy bar the door" tonight in Eugene!
OC Dooley
Florida Int +6.5
At most offshore locations Florida Atlantic opened as a much larger favorite (-9’) as opposed to the figure we are currently looking at which is stunning since Florida “Atlantic” has won 6 of the past 8 series clashes versus Florida “International”. But it should be noted that tonight marks the first time in THREE YEARS that “International” has HOSTED their in-state rivals and back in 2011 they drilled “Atlantic” by a 41-7 final score. The UNDERDOG has successfully COVERED the spread 4 times in the past 5 series clashes and I am expecting that pattern to continue this evening. Here is an approaching 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (83-39 since 1992) which actually plays AGAINST road teams like “Atlantic” off an upset conference win, facing an opponent who just won by double-digits versus a conference rival. Florida “International” as serious momentum after pulling off a road upset as a two-touchdown underdog