Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 20

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

UCF -16 over UAB: UAB is is winless on the year yet they have won 4 in a row ATS, still I don't feel they will be able to hang with the Knights here. UAB has one of the worst offense in the nation, as they are 106th overall (313 ypg) and 117th in scoring, putting up just 13.2 ppg. They have some really bad offensive numbers all around and tonight will be facing on of the best defenses in the Nation. UCF checks in with the 3rd rated defense in the Nation, allowing just 221.3 ypg and 14.7 ppg, plus they are ranked in the top 10 in rushing defense, passing defense and yards per play against. This is a very balanced defense and its hard to get anything off of them and I don't see this pathetic UAB offense getting more than 10 points here. As bad as this offense is, there defense is even worse. The Blazers check in at 118th over, allowing 514 ypg and 102nd in points allowed at 33 ppg. They are also ranked in defensive passing and 113th in rushing. This is an overall bad defense and even though the Knights possess an average offense I don't see how they won't be able to unload on this bad Blazers defense here. The Knights are off a bad loss last week to the mustangs so they will be fully focused and in bounce back mode here. I see at least a 21 point win by the Knights here, thanks mainly to a defense that won't allow more than 7 points in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any road team after going under the toatl by 35 points in their last 5 games combined and they have a winning pct of 45 to 55. This play has gone 28-4 the last 5 years.

Arizona/ UCLA Under 62: The last 5 times these teams have met there hasn't been a game score more than 61 points, while the OU is 8-24-1 in UCLA's last 33 conference games. The Bruins defense has been bad this year, ranking 91st overall (413 ypg) and 97th in points allowed (32.2 ppg), plus they are 77th in passing defense, allowing 231.8 ypg and they have allowed teams to connect on 68% of their passes and only 5 other teams in the FBS have a worst % against. Now UCLA knows that they can't contain Nick Foles with their defense, who is second in the nation in passing, so they will look to use their 30th ranked ground game (194.5 ypg) to keep Foles off the field and that will eat clock. It's a good thing also that Arizona is 99th vs the run this year, so it should be easy for UCLA to use that ground game here. The Arizona defense, on the surface looks bad, but a closer look shows that they have taken on 3 of the top 5 scoring offenses and tonight they will be taking on a mediocre at best UCLA offense that was forced to go back to Prince after Brehaut broke his leg last time out. Neither defense is any good, that's true, but I expect UCLA to run a lot, while the Arizona defense will play it's best game of the year. I feel 62 is to high here and really see this one landing no higher than 54.

1 UNIT PLAY

ARIZONA -4 over UCLA: I do expect some stops in this one keeping the score down a bit, but Arizona will grab more of those stops as a weak UCLA offense will just not put enough points on the board to keep this one close. Arizona by 10+ here.

David Chan

Buffalo Sabres @ Florida Panthers
PICK: Buffalo Sabres

I bet value where I see it and expect the Sabres to spear the Panthers tonight.

Buffalo is rolling right now and is loving the road, having won its last two away from friendly confines including Tuesday's 3-1 win at Montreal.

Goaltender Ryan Miller made 40-stops; Miller has already benefited from the upgrade Buffalo made to its defense in the off-season, winning three of his four starts and posting a 2.01 GAA.

Florida is coming off a lackluster effort in which it had a season-low 20 shots in a 3-0 shutout loss at Washington on Tuesday.

And that's bad news for Panthers backers today as the Sabre's have killed 18 of their last 20 opposing power plays.

I expect Buffalo to continue its hot start; how about you?!

Jim Feist

Winnipeg vs. Ottawa
Play: Ottawa

Ottawa is hungry for a win at 0-5 and catches a scheduling break. Winnipeg comes in a bad team playing the second of a back to back road spot, as well as their third game in four nights. It's also their 4th game in 6 nights, and the Jets are 20-43-1 in their last 64 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Ottawa has home ice and has played in three one-goal games, winning one, and losing narrowly in the other two as a dog of +135 and +210. Play the Ottawa Senators.

Ben Burns

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins

Situation favors the home team here. The Leafs are off a hard-fought comeback (shootout) win over the Jets last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four nights, while also leaving Toronto for the first time this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins had last night off. Prior to that, the champs were embarrassed 4-1 by Carolina. They embarrassed themselves with their undisciplined play and high number of fights in that one. I expect them to respond with a far better effort here.

While they lost the last meeting here, the Bruins are 23-15 (+3.8) the last 38 times that they were a host in this series. Note that they were laying -230 the last time that they faced the Leafs here. So, even though tonight's price is "steep," its not nearly as high as it was last time.

With the Bruins at 30-19 (+4.5) the past couple of seasons, after having allowed four or more goals in their previous game, consider "laying the wood."

EZWINNERS

Central Florida Knights -16

The Blazers are 0-6 this season, but have covered the spread in four straight games while the Knights are 0-3 straight up and against the spread on the road this season, but I like UCF to get things going in this game. UAB has one of the worst offenses and defenses in the nation as they only average 13.2 points per game which is fourth worst in the nation and allow a third worst 515 yards per game. UCF has had their struggles this season on offense, but they have dominated this series winning six out of the last seven match ups and going 5-2 against the spread in those games including a 42-7 beat down last year. I look for the Knights offense to finally get going because UCF's #3 ranked total defense should give the offense plenty of opportunities and may even score on their own. Lay the points.

BANG THE BOOK

UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats (-4, 62)

This is a big, big game for the Bruins, who are still searching for the minimum of three wins required to make it to a bowl game this year. Head Coach Rick Neuheisel’s job probably depends on it, and that’s a scary proposition to be in with as many injuries as this team has. The biggest injury is the one to QB Richard Brehaut. Brehaut took over for an injured QB Kevin Prince twice, once in each of the past two seasons, but he had settled into the starting role before getting knocked out, possibly for the season with a leg injury two weeks ago against the Washington State Cougars. Prince rallied the team and came up with a big time victory at home, but this is going to be a bigger challenge on the road against a hungry and talented Arizona team. UCLA has only scored more than 28 points once this season, and that was a game that was lost at the Houston Cougars. Without getting past that number in this one though, it could be a long, long game.

Arizona has dismissed Head Coach Mike Stoops, as they have now lost 10 straight games against FBS teams dating back to last season. Still, we know that not all is lost for the Wildcats, as this has been a brutal, brutal schedule to start the season. Sure, there was no excuse to lose a week and a half ago to the Oregon State Beavers, but that is all in the past now, and the new regime knows that there is still a good chance to make a bowl game this year. Not only is the schedule significantly easier on the way out (after all, the Cats have already played USC, Oregon, and Stanford this year), but this is still a team that has a heck of a lot of talent on it. It was only last year at this time that we were wondering if QB Nick Foles was going to be a Heisman Trophy candidate or not, and he still has some great weapons to spread the ball around to. The question is whether this defense, which ranks No. 117 in the nation, is going to be able to pick up the slack just a little bit to help out the offense.

UCLA Bruins @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: In the end, Arizona is probably the better of these two teams. The Cats will put points up in bunches, and we’re just not all that sure that UCLA is going to be able to do the same.

PICK: Arizona -4

Central Florida Knights at UAB Blazers (+16, 44.5)

UCF and UAB have both had very disappointing starts to the season. The Knights were expected to be one of the teams to beat in Conference USA, but they are just 3-3. UAB wasn’t expected to be great, but not many people expected them to be winless through six games. There is still a little bit of time to get the season turned around, but both of these teams realize they need to get back on the winning track this week. UCF dominated the Blazers 42-7 last year, but this game will be played in Birmingham.

The Knights of Central Florida had a couple tough losses against FIU and BYU earlier this year. Last week’s 38-17 blowout loss at the hands of Houston was a very humbling game for this team. This is a team that put its program on the map last year with an important Liberty Bowl win over the Georgia Bulldogs. They still have a great deal of talent, but they seem to have taken a step back so far this year.

Jeff Godfrey is nice dual-threat quarterback, but he needs to develop more as a passer. Godfrey is completing 68% of his passes, but the Knights almost never throw the ball downfield, which allows the defense to sit on the running game or the short passing game. To say that UCF is stacked at the running back position is really an understatement. Brynn Harvey, Ronnie Weaver, and Latavius Murray would all be starters for most teams. The Knights defense has been great this year. UCF is third in the nation in total defense, and this defense allows only 14.9 points per game.

UAB wasn’t a great team last year, but they did win four games. The Blazers haven’t necessarily been way off in the last few games, but they just can’t seem to make the winning play when it counts most. UAB actually led Mississippi State 3-0 at halftime, and they fell by just one point against Troy. This team has been bad on both sides of the football, and there is room for improvement just about everywhere.

The Blazers have had Bryan Ellis and Jonathan Perry split time under center this season. Combined, the two have thrown two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Pat Shed, who had a successful season last year, is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry in 2011. Defensively, this team has been terrible this year. The Blazers are 118th out of 120 teams in total defense. UAB is allowing 33 points per game this year.

UCF may not have played up to their potential yet this year, but their defense is terrific. I don’t think UAB will be able to get much of anything going in this one. I expect UCF to cover the number, but my favorite play here is the under.

PICK: Under 45

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS +108 over Texas

Just like we saw in last year’s World Series, Ranger manager Ron Washington looked lost. With a leadoff hit to begin the game, Washington put the steal sign on for the speedy Ian Kinsler and he was thrown out by two feet. With runners on first and third and two out in the seventh, and with a whole slew of pinch-hitters available, Washington asked Esteban Germán to grab a bat. Germán last AB was Sept 25th and he promptly struck out on three pitches. Ron Washington wins games when his team scores eight runs. In a close game with crucial decisions to make, he’s clueless. Enter Colby Lewis. Lewis returned from Japan to become a Texas rotation fixture in 2010. Lewis has been unable to repeat his 2010 stats and skills in 2011. Fly-ball pitcher Lewis has allowed an increased fly-ball rate this year and has been less fortunate with hr/f than in 2010. A FB% increase from an already-high flyball rate is unlikely to lead to success. His considerable strikeout rate decline has resulted in more balls-in-play, making Lewis' increased hr/f more problematic than it would have been had he maintained his 2010 strikeout rate. Lewis outperformed his xERA in 2010, but is on the wrong side of a more sizable ERA/xERA gap in 2011. Despite solid base skills, Lewis profiles as an ERA risk due to his fly-ball tendencies and declining KO rate. Lewis has surrendered three jacks in his two post-season starts over 11 frames and his ERA in the postseason thus far is 5.50. Dave Duncan will not hesitate for a second to inform the Genius to get Jamie Garcia out of the game as soon as Garcia shows signs of trouble. Garcia has been absolutely tremendous the first and second time through line-ups this whole season and gets into serious trouble the third time through. LaRussa will not leave him in there to get into trouble. Garcia is an extreme ground-ball pitcher (58% over the past month and 54% on the year) and anytime we can get an extreme groundballer over an extreme flyballer, you can pencil us in every time. Throw in the managerial mismatch and the roll the Cardinals are on and this one becomes a must play. Wrong side favored. Play: St. Louis +108 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Rangers +106 over CALGARY

The Rangers got off to a slow start after two OT losses in Europe to the Ducks and Kings followed by a loss to the Islanders. They played in Vancouver on Tuesday and were dominated in the first two periods but woke up in the third, scored some sweet goals and ended up winning 4-0 in front of the magnificent goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist. As it turns out the Ducks, Kings and Islanders are all off to good starts with a combined record of 10-4. That win Tuesday was a good one for the Rangers and could certainly get them going, as they, too, are a very decent club and a serious contender to win their division. The Flames are not decent and will be one of the more beatable clubs in the league. NHL teams look for young, speedy and talented players nowadays but the Flames are loaded with aging, slow and once gifted NHL players. In any case, wagering against the favored Flames is a winning proposition over time and after the Rangers picked up their morale-boosting first win of the year on Tuesday, this one has even more appeal. Play: N.Y. Rangers +106 (Risking 2 units).

BOSTON -½ -102 over Toronto

The Maple Leafs have picked up nine out of a possible 10 points thus far. We were feeling pretty sick last night when they were down 3-1 in the third to the Jets. Toronto was –175 favorite and we were watching from the rail (had no bet on it). Lo and behold, the Leafs scored a lucky goal followed by another one 27 seconds later and subsequently won it in a shootout. We would’ve been sicker had we bet the Jets. The Leafs have beaten Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary and Winnipeg and combined that quartet is 5-16. That’s right, five wins and 16 losses and the Leafs really didn’t outplay any of them. The Bruins are a misleading 2-4. They’ve run into some hot goaltending but they’ve played hard in every game and those efforts will be rewarded soon. Boston lost its cool in their last game against Carolina, a 4-1 loss in which they were clearly the dominant team. It was actually a good experience for them, as they were reminded that they are now the hunted and every team is gunning for them. The Bruins will regroup, clear their heads and come out even more focused and determined for this one. The Bruins are not a 2-4 team and the Maple Leafs are not a 4-0-1 team. The Leafs are a poor hockey team with a horrible defense and two guys that are scoring. Justice gets served up here. Play: Boston -½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

VANCOUVER -½ -102 over Nashville

The Preds really have a whole new look this season and it’s not for the better. They have about eight guys on the squad with very little NHL experience and making close to minimum wage. Nashville won its first two game over Columbus and St. Louis and they were the second best team on the ice in both games. They’ve subsequently lost three straight to the Devils, Coyotes and Oilers and in those three losses they’ve scored five times. This is a team in trouble and they couldn’t have picked a worse time to play in Vancouver. Roberto Luongo was practically booed off the ice in the Canucks lost to the Rangers on Tuesday. The Canucks have two wins in six games but they probably should have five wins. They outshout the Rangers 40-19. They lost 5-4 in Philly but were once again the better team and on opening night they outplayed the Penguins but lost that one too. The Canucks are once again an elite team and instead of giving in to fan pressure to play Corey Schneider, coach Vigneault is coming right back with Luongo. The players and goalie will dig down deep tonight and this vastly superior host should put away this beatable and badly flawed intruder. Play: Nashville -½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

N.Y. Islanders +133 over TAMPA BAY

Until the Lightning show us something different, we’ll continue to fade them when taking back a tag. TB has lost five in a row and has allowed 25 goals over that span. Of course they’ll be looking to fix that but you can’t fix something when you don’t have the parts. Defensively, the Bolts are weak and slow and not only does that prevent them from allowing the opposition to score, it prevents them from moving the puck out efficiently and creating chances. The Islanders come in feeling great with three wins in four games. One of those wins came against these same Bolts by a score of 5-1. The Islanders have outscored the opposition 9-3 over their past two games and it’s no surprise. This is a team brimming with confidence and loaded with offensive talent. They’ve looked progressively better in each game and what we get here is hot vs. cold taking back some weight and that right there is value. Play: N.Y. Islanders +133 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

UCLA / Arizona Over

ESPN’s Thursday night college football telecast takes us to Arizona Stadium for another Pac-12 battle between the UCLA Bruins (3-3, 1-5 ATS) and the Arizona Wildcats (1-5, 2-4 ATS); kick-off for this divisional tussle is set for 9:00 ET and can be seen live on ESPN, ESPN 3D and ESPN3.com.

UCLA went into its off week with a bit of momentum by toppling the Washington State Cougars 28-25, but failed to cover the closing four-point spread. The win evened head coach Rick Neuheisel’s squad at 3-3 SU for the year, but dropped them to a very poor 1-5 against the closing number. The Bruins have ventured away from the Rose Bowl three times to date going 1-2 SU & ATS with losses to Houston and Stanford to go along with a win against Oregon State. The Bruins have failed to cover each of their L/6 following their bye, but they still have plenty to play for currently sitting in 3rd place within the Pac-12 South with games still remaining against both USC and Arizona State.

After going 7-6 SU and qualifying for a bowl game for the third straight season a year ago, the Wildcats poor start to their 2011-12 campaign wasn’t enough to allow former head coach Mike Stoops to hold onto his job. So with the Stoops era over in Tucson, U of A will look to finish the season out on a high starting with tonight’s home tussle in the desert. It could all start with a bang tonight with the Wildcats holding extreme offensive advantages with the Bruins’ defense getting gouged to the tune of 413.3 YPG (#91) while the Wildcats offense has been the only impressive component of Arizona’s arsenal to date; especially through the air where QB Nick Foles has lit opposing defenses up for an average of 382.2 YPG (#3).

Arizona has won and covered each of these conference rivals L/4 meetings as favorites which includes last year’s 29-21 win as 7.5-point chalk in Los Angeles. The home team has covered six of the L/8 overall meetings with the ‘over’ playing out to a 4-3-1 tally during that stretch. UCLA has dropped each of its L/3 trips to Tucson by an average of nearly 20 PPG, but the Wildcats have lost and failed to cover each of their L/2 under the Thursday night lights. Arizona has covered eight of its L/11 following its bye, but stands just 3-12 ATS the L/15 times it was favored at home in the 3.5-10 point range.

MLB Predictions

St Louis Cardinals +110

Last night Carpenter went 6 innings allowing 2 runs, and the bullpen came in and got 3 shutout innings for the win. I really like how the Cardinals played last night, and I like them again as underdogs tonight. On the mound we will see Colby Lewis for the Rangers and Jaime Garcia for the Cardinals. Colby Lewis has had two starts this postseason, with a 3.86 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .262 opponents batting average. In his ALCS start against the Tigers he went just 5.2 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 earned runs (including two homeruns). He does have good numbers in his career postseason starts, including a win in last years World Series, but will face a very tough Cardinals lineup. Jaime Garcia is 0-2 over three starts this postseason, with a 5.74 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .297 opponents batting average. He had a quality start against the Phillies, but struggled in the NLCS. He was great at home this season, going 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA at Busch Stadium. Take note that the Rangers are just 7-17 in Lewis' last 24 road starts vs a team with a winning record, and 4-9 in his last 13 starts when he is a small favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals are 11-1 in Garcia's last 12 home starts vs a team with a winning record, and 17-4 in his last 21 starts vs a team with a winning record overall. The Cardinals are also 4-1 in Garcia's last 5 home starts. I think we have a slight pitching edge to the Cardinals because this game is being played in St Louis. Cardinals play tough at home, and I like them in this spot as an underdog. Take the Cards at +110 for 1 unit.

Hollywood Sports

Capitals at Flyers
Prediction: Under

Washington (5-0-0-0) comes off a 3-0 win over Florida on Tuesday -- and the Under is a whopping 42-13-1 in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to two goals or less. The Capitals have also seen the Under go 38-13-2 in their last 53 games on the road. Philadelphia in enjoying life with their new free agent goalie Ilya Bryzgalov who has a .927 save percentage and a sizzling 1.99 GAA. The Flyers come off a 7-2 win at Ottawa on Tuesday -- and Washington has played 9 straight games Under the Total against teams that scored at least five goals in their last game. Philly has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a small favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. Take the Under in this one with the Total set at a plum 5.5.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Los Angeles Kings at Phoenix Coyotes

We do not like the Kings as a road favorite in tonight's matchup with the Coyotes as LA is off a 5-0 win over St. Louis, setting them up poorly here. The Kings are 8-29 SU on the road when coming off a shutout victory, including 1-13 if that shutout victory came at home. They are also 5-17 off their last 22 wins by 5 goals or more. The "shoe is on the other foot" for Phoenix right now as they are coming off a 5-2 loss here in the desert to Chicago, but are 10-1 when coming off a home loss by 3+ goals.

Play on: Phoenix

Black Widow

1* UCF/UAB UNDER 46

Two below-average offenses go toe-to-toe tonight when the UCF Knights travel to face the UAB Blazers Thursday. UCF is only scoring 15.0 PPG over their last four, while UAB is putting up a woeful 13.2 PPG on the season. The Blazers don't have a great defense, but they have been much better of late, allowing 27.5 PPG over their last four. UCF is only giving up 14.7 PPG and 221 total yards/game, and they are ranked No. 3 in the country in total defense. UCF is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. The UNDER is 8-1 in Knights last 9 games overall, and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The UNDER is 4-0 in Blazers last 4 games overall, and 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Take the UNDER 46 points here.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit UAB Blazers +16.5

UAB has been undervalued in recent weeks and is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a result. The books have once again failed to give the Blazers the respect they deserve, and we'll look to take advantage. UCF, meanwhile, has been overvalued the last month and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games. UAB won't be lacking any motivation tonight as it looks to record its first win of the season and looks to avenge last year's embarrassing 42-7 loss at UCF. Rest assured, things will be different in Birmingham. The last time the Knights visited, in 2009, they only walked away with a 7-point victory. UCF has struggled on the road this season, going 0-3 SU and ATS. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. We'll take the points tonight.