Jack Jones
UAB +16.5
The UAB Blazers have certainly struggled this season at 0-6. This team is desperate for a win, and they've been playing like it for four straight weeks. I have no doubt they will be laying it all on the line again tonight against overrated UCF.
The Blazers could not have started the season any worse, losing by a combined score of 88-10 in their first two games against Florida and Tulane. But they have looked like a much better football team the last four weeks, going a perfect 4-0 ATS. Their largest loss was an 18-point setback against Mississippi State from the SEC. They have been allowing a respectable 27.5 points/game over their last four despite playing some high-powered offenses with the likes of ECU, Troy and Tulsa.
The UCF Knights remain overvalued after winning Conference USA last year. UCF is just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, with their lone win coming at home against Marshall by a final of 16-6. The Knights have been averaging just 15.0 points/game over their last four, and they simply do not have the offensive firepower to cover this big spread tonight.
UCF has been way too hyped in the first half of the season, but they haven't been able to live up to expectations due to having just 10 returning starters from last year's team. UAB has 16 starters back from last year's squad, and that experience continues to make them an undervalued team.
UAB is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. The Blazers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. UAB is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 October games. Bet UAB Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit UCLA/Arizona UNDER 62
With both teams having had a bye week to prepare, expect the defenses to play well enough to keep this one under the number. Plays Under on home teams, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, with a poor first half defense (16 or more 1st half points allowed per game) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 78-39 since 1992. Teams fitting into this situation have combined with their opponents to score a total of 56.1 points on average. Also, the Under is 8-2 in the Bruins' last 10 games following a bye week. These two have been Under the posted total in each of the last 5 meetings. We'll take the Under tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit UCF/UAB Under 46
UAB has played to the Under in 4 straight and 5 of 6 games this season. UCF has played to the Under in 4 of 5 lined games this season. Plays Under on any team (UAB) after 6 or more consecutive straight up losses, provided that teams has won 25% or less of its games on the season, are 148-87 (63%) since 1992. We'll follow this time-tested system to a winner tonight.
Steve Janus
Texas Rangers -117
I really like the Rangers chances of evening up the series at 1-1 tonight. Texas hasn't lost back-to-back games the entire postseason. The Rangers offense was held to just six hits in game 1, but that was against Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter.
St Louis will send out Jaime Garcia for game 2, who has pitched well at home. The problem with Garcia is he hasn't lasted past the 4th inning in each of his last two starts. The Rangers offense is the best Garcia has faced this season.
The Rangers will counter with Colby Lewis, who is making his third straight postseason start on the road. Lewis hasn't started since facing the Tigers back on the 11th, which means he should have a very live arm tonight. Lewis went 7.3 in his only start in the World Series last year, leading the Rangers to a 4-2 win (their only win of the series).
Texas is 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss, 7-0 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series, and 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. BET THE RANGERS!
Stan Lisowski
UAB +16.5
UC Florida hasn't won a road game yet this seaosn and are off a huge game vs. SMU last Saturday. Blazers cash has a conference dog, clicking well over 60% of the time their past 50 in that role.
Golden Contender
Los Angeles at Phoenix
Play: Phoenix
Phoenix is a solid 10-1 at home off a loss by 3 or more goals as they look to bounce back from a 5-2 loss here vs Chicago. Phoenix has won 15 of the last 21 here vs an LA. Kings team that may be flat off a 5-0 shutout win vs St. Louis in their last game. The Kings are a paltry 9-30 on the road off a shutout win. Phoenix has triple revenge in the series from last season and we will back them here tonight at +120.
WUNDERDOG
Chicago at Colorado
Pick: Chicago -130
The Colorado Avalanche have sure played inside out. They opened the season at home, and were blanked by the Red Wings, then went out on the road and won five straight games - the first time in franchise history. They return home tonight against the Chicago Blackhawks who are also out of the gate strong and are looking to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Blackhawks should be toting their "A" game here, as last year they faced a home-and-home situation vs. the Avalanche and were beaten in both games. They will face the Avalanche once again in a home-and-home starting tonight. The Blackhawks have followed a great effort on the defensive end and in the net very strong, as they are now 59-29 in a game following a matchup where they allowed 2 goals or fewer. Colorado may be winning, but this team has sure had a lot of problems putting one in the win column vs. a winning team, where they are a pathetic 5-24 in their last 29 vs. a winning team. Chicago gets revenge, so play on them here.
Sean Murphy
Montreal Canadiens @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Montreal Canadiens
We've been fading the Penguins this week, to mixed results, splitting plays on the Jets and Wild.
With the injury news out of Pittsburgh firming up, we'll go back to the well with the Canadiens on Thursday night.
The Pens are expected to be without Evgeni Malkin and Tyler Kennedy on Thursday night, and while they'll get Brooks Orpik back in the lineup for the first time this season, they'll have to make do without Kris Letang. That's an unfortunate trade-off to be sure. Of course, the fact that Sidney Crosby remains sidelined is not news at all.
For the Canadiens, this is a big spot. They're coming off three straight losses at home. It's not as if they've been completely outplayed. In fact, they've outshot their last three opponents by a combined 46 shots.
Montreal has been dealing with its share of key injuries, much like Pittsburgh. However, the Canadiens are expected to get Mike Cammalleri back on the ice tonight.
The Habs took three of four meetings from the Penguins last season - no surprise if they turn the trick again on Thursday at Consol Energy Center.
James Patrick Sports
UCLA vs. Arizona
It was only a matter of time that Arizona’s failures would cost coach Mike Stoops his job. After five straight losses the ax fell a week ago, ending Stoops’ (7½) years with the program. Defensive coordinator Tim Kish makes his interim-coaching debut against Rick Neuheisel, another coach on the hot seat, when Arizona hosts UCLA in a nationally-televised conference battle in the Desert Thursday night. Arizona defeated UCLA (29-21) last season in a game played at the Rose Bowl and we have a rookie Head Coach favored in the first game he'll ever serve in that capacity. Big Game James Patrick's Thursday complimentary selection is the UCLA Bruins.
NHL Predictions
Blackhawks / Avalanche Over 5.5
Who would of thought the Colorado Avalanche would be 5-1 to start the season? Almost no one. The most impressive thing about their hot start… 5 straight wins on the road. The Blackhawks are off to a pretty good start themselves, going 3-1-1 in their first three games. The Blackhawks are averaging 3.4 goals per game, while the Avalanche are averaging 3 goals per game. If you take away the Avs first game of the season (a 3-0 loss to Detroit) they are averaging 4 goals per game in their 5 game winning streak. Take note that the OVER is 9-4-1 in the Blackhawks last 14 vs Western Conference opponents dating back to last season. The OVER is 4-1 in the Avs last 5 home games following a road trip of 7+ days, and 21-8 in their last 29 vs Central division opponents. These two teams have gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 meetings with each other, and the OVER is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Colorado. The Blackhawks are always a threat offensively, and the Avalanche are playing a very high tempo style of play and have their powerplay clicking. Take the OVER.
Edmonton Oilers -114
These two teams met in Minnesota back on the 13th, with the Wild taking a 2-1 shootout victory. The Oilers come into tonight with a 2-2-1 record, and the Wild are 2-2-2. In my opinion Edmonton has looked like the better team to start the season. The Oilers have gotten wins against Pittsburgh and Nashville at home, with their only home loss a 4-3 loss to Vancouver in a game that they outshot the Canucks. Besides the road loss to Minnesota the Oilers allowed two late goals against in a 2-1 loss in Calgary. Minnesota has wins over Columbus and Edmonton at home, but has lost to Pittsburgh and Detroit at home and Ottawa and the Islanders on the road. Neither team is scoring much, but the Oilers do have the edge in specialty teams. Edmonton has looked like a pretty solid team at home early this season, and I look for them to pick up another win in a pretty even match up tonight against the Wild.
Predators / Canucks Under 5
Two of the Western Conference top goalies will do battle tonight with Pekka Rinne and Roberto Luongo in net for a rematch of last years second round playoff series. The Canucks won that series in 6 games, but Nashville did manage to win two games in Vancouver. In that series we saw the total set at 5 for all 6 games, and the UNDER went 3-2-1. They also met 4 times in the regular season, with the UNDER being a perfect 4-0. In their 10 meetings last year we saw totals of: 3, 4, 3, 4, 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 3. Take note that the UNDER is 13-5-5 in the Predators last 23 road games, and 15-4-3 in their last 22 vs Northwest opponents. T he UNDER is 19-6-2 in the Canucks last 27 home games, and 34-15-5 in their last 54 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Both of these teams are averaging under 2.5 goals per game this year, and I think we can expect another tight and low scoring match up between these two teams. There is value here on the UNDER.
Real Animal
2* UCLA +5.5
Consider the underdog here. Arizona has lost five straight going 1-4 ATS with a defense that's been shredded to the tune of 37, 48, 56, 37, and 37 points while allowing 533.4 yards per game. The Wildcats are 1-9 SU in their last 10 with the only victory coming against Northern Arizona. UCLA's three defeats this year have come against quality competition in Stanford, Houston, and Texas, a combined 16-2 on the season. They could have easily defeated 6-0 Houston too in the opener with a 554-469 edge in total yards. Two games ago the 45-19 loss at Stanford doesn't look too bad considering the Cardinal is 6-0 ATS this year blowing the doors off of everybody in the Pac-12. In that game Stanford only had a 442-343 edge in total yards. They also won at Oregon State 27-19 catching +4 and that's something Arizona could not do last Saturday losing 37-27 as a 1-point road chalk. In that game Arizona was out-rushed 128-53. Only once this season out of six tries have the Wildcats gone for more than 82 yards rushing. I like the fact in their last three games UCLA has rushed for 211, 141, and 170 yards despite two of those three on the road including at Stanford. Remember too that Arizona started the year with exactly ONE CAREER START on the offensive line and just three returning starters on defense, consequently now giving up 533 yards a contest in last five. Arizona is 0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS versus FBS opposition. What does it say about a program that fires their head coach midway through a season? Very rare in the college ranks with Stoops' dismissal two weeks ago. AZ QB Nick Foles will keep firing but he has no choice considering Arizona running game currently #119 out of 120 teams and a defense ranking #115. Throw out that Northern Arizona opener, and only Kansas would be ranked lower in total defense. Bruins RB Johnathan Franklin could keep Foles off the field considering he averaged 9.0 and 8.2 yards per carry in his last two games. Talk about a false favorite. 2* UCLA +5 1/2.
OC DOOLEY
Central Florida -16.5
Even though the visitor is in the midst of an ugly 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS slide, the oddsmakers have asked Central Florida to lay a significant amount of points against an opponent who has successfully covered four consecutive betting tickets which speaks volumes. It should not come as a complete shock that Central Florida has had problems out of the gate since they lost a grand total of 19 seniors off a 2010 squad that was extremely successful both overall (11-3) and within Conference USA (7-1). The Knights are basically following a pattern this campaign which has negatively effected all programs from the sunshine state as for the first time in recent memory no school from the state of Florida appears in the National Top-25 rankings. One thing the Knights can do is put points on the scoreboard courtesy of quarterback Jeff Godfrey who in his freshman season (2,159 yards, 13 touchdowns, 8 interceptions) was stellar. Last year Godfrey finished among the top-fifteen quarterbacks nationally in pass efficiency and he also RAN for 566 yards and 10 scores on the ground. Tonight Godfrey and company face an Alabama-Birmingham defense that came into 2011 behind the eight-ball so to speak on defense having to use a pair of JUNIOR COLLEGE recruits at the starting tackle positions. Alabama-Birmingham also had question marks at the defensive end positions along with their placekicker who is a true freshman. My database research indicates that Central Florida has made bettors a fortune (8-1 ATS) when facing an opponent with a horrible defense that on average allows at least 31 points per game. Here is an amazing “28-4” SYSTEM (87% past five years) which plays ON road teams like Central Florida after playing below the posted total by 35+ points in a five-game span, with just an average win percentage (45-to-55%) on the campaign. That 28-4 System sides with Central Florida who despite giving up 38 points in a road loss this past Saturday are a prohibitive favorite for a reason