SPORTS ADVISORS
ALCS
N.Y. Yankees (6-1) at L.A. Angels (4-3)
Right-hander A.J. Burnett (13-9, 3.94 ERA) will try and pitch the Yankees to their first World Series appearance since 2003 when he goes up against Angels’ ace John Lackey (12-9, 3.66) in Game 5 of this best-of-7 ALCS at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Calif.
New York took a commanding 3-1 series lead on Tuesday when C.C. Sabathia dominated Los Angeles for the second time in this series, holding the Angels to one run on five hits over eight innings of a 10-1 rout. The Yankees got homers from Johnny Damon and postseason hero Alex Rodriguez, who also had a double, a single and a walk.
New York, which hasn’t won the World Series since 2000, is on impressive runs of 47-18 overall, 13-5 as an underdog, 5-1 against the A.L. West, 45-17 against right-handed starters and 10-4 as a road ’dog. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they’re still just 2-7 in their last nine road playoff contests.
Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 11 of 14 overall and are on additional positive surges of 7-2 at home, 35-16 on Thursdays, 10-1 as a favorite and 7-1 as a home favorite. However, L.A. has dropped 13 of its last 18 playoff games, including seven of 10 at home, and it is just 1-7 in its last eight ALCS contests. Although, the Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five.
The Yankees have won five of six in this rivalry, and they’re now 8-6 in 14 meetings this year. However, New York remains just 9-21 in its last 30 games at Angel Stadium (3-5 this year). In fact, the host is 17-5 in the last 22 clashes between these clubs going back to the beginning of last August (10-4 this season).
These teams have met just twice previously in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005.
Burnett pitched well in Game 2 of this series in New York, allowing two runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings as the Yankees won 4-3 in 13 innings. He’s now allowed two runs or less in six straight starts, and New York has won five straight times behind Burnett, including both playoff games by identical 4-3 scores in extra innings.
Burnett’s faced the Angels three times this season, allowing a combined eight runs on 18 hits over 19 innings (3.79 ERA). In his September start in Los Angeles, he gave up two runs over 5 2/3 innings of a 3-2 Yankees’ win, and he’s 8-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 17 road efforts this year. New York is on positive runs of 4-0 when Burnett faces a winning team and 4-1 when he gets four days off.
In Game 1 in New York, Lackey gave up four runs (two earned) on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of the 4-1 loss to the Yankees and Sabathia. Back in July, he faced the Yankees at home and gave up two runs over seven innings of a 5-4 victory. That came on the heels of a dominant 5-0 win over Boston in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing four hits in 7 1/3 scoreless innings.
With the win over the Red Sox, Lackey is 7-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 14 starts at Angel Stadium this year. Also, in regular-season action, Lackey is 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 career starts against New York.
New York is on “under” runs of 15-7-1 overall, 8-4 in playoff road games, 5-2-1 in playoff games overall, 5-3 in ALCS action and 16-6-1 after a victory, 9-2-1 in ALCS road games and 20-8-2 in Burnett’s last 30 starts. Similarly, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-18-1 overall, 9-5 in ALCS games, 20-7-2 as a favorite, 19-7-1 against right-handed starters and 35-16 when Lackey faces a team with a winning record.
In this rivalry, the under is 5-3 in the last eight meetings overall (2-2 in this ALCS), but the over is 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head clashes in Southern California, with Game 4 and Game 5 soaring over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Florida State (2-4, 1-4 ATS) at North Carolina (4-2, 1-3 ATS)
The Seminoles try to snap a rare three-game losing skid and get their first ACC victory of the season when they travel to Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill for a nationally televised clash with North Carolina.
Florida is coming off a 49-44 home loss to Georgia Tech as a three-point favorite back on Oct. 10, and that came on the heels of upset losses to Boston College (28-21 on the road) and South Florida (17-7 at home). The three-game slide is the first for the Seminoles since November 2005, and they’ve given up 31.3 points and 433 yards per game (247.3 rushing ypg) during the slump. Against the Yellow Jackets two Saturdays ago, Florida State rolled up 539 yards, but allowed 532, including a whopping 401 rushing yards (7 yards per carry).
Including a season-opening 38-34 home loss to Miami as a six-point favorite, Florida State is 0-3 SU and ATS in ACC action.
North Carolina started ACC play with two blowout losses to Georgia Tech (24-7 as a three-point road underdog) and Virginia (16-3 as a 12-point home chalk). However, the Tar Heels got healthy against Division I-AA Georgia Southern on Oct. 10, rolling 42-12 in a non-lined home game. Against its four Division I-A foes, UNC has scored a total of just 53 points (13.3 ppg).
Florida State is 14-1-1 SU all-time against North Carolina, winning the last three in a row by scores of 40-14, 37-0 and 38-16, the latter being the most recent battle back in 2004. Despite the Seminoles’ on-field dominance of this rivalry, the Heels are 3-1 ATS in the last four, all as an underdog. However, the visitor has cashed in seven of the last nine battles.
Florida State rates a big edge on offense, putting up 29.8 points and 425.5 yards per contest, compared with 22.5 points and 282 total yards per game for the Tar Heels. However, North Carolina’s stop unit has been much stronger, yielding 14.2 points and 237.7 yards per outing (112.5 rushing ypg, 2.9 yards per carry), while the Seminoles are getting torched for 28.2 points and 428.2 ypg (172.7 rushing ypg, 4.6 ypc).
Christian Ponder has had a solid junior season under center for Florida State, completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 296.7 yards per game with nine TDs and just one INT. Meanwhile, UNC quarterback T.J. Yates is connecting at a 60.8 percent rate but for just 160.7 passing ypg with six TDs offset by seven INTs.
The Seminoles are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover. Otherwise, though, Bobby Bowden’s crew is in ATS declines of 1-4 in ACC play, 3-8 in October and 0-4-1 on Thursday. North Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven after a bye, but the Heels are also in pointspread ruts of 6-13 as a favorite, 3-7 when laying three points or less, 6-19 as a home chalk and 1-4 in ACC action.
Florida State is on a bevy of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 12-3 in October, 5-0 as an underdog and 5-1 against winning teams. The Tar Heels have topped the total in three of four at home and four of six as a home favorite, but the under is 4-1 in UNC’s last five after a bye and 3-1-1 in the last five in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Florida State at North Carolina
The Seminoles look to build on their 8-3-2 ATS record in their 13 games as an underdog. Florida State is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+3)
Game 303-304: Florida State at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 93.886; North Carolina 93.299
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1; 51
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+3); Over
MLB
NY Yankees at LA Angels
The Angels look to stay alive and build on their 5-0 record in John Lackey's last 5 starts at home with the total set between 7 and 8 1/2 runs. LA is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120)
Game 905-906: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.407; LA Angels (Lackey) 17.035
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over
NHL
Boston at Philadelphia
The Flyers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 2-5 in its last 7 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Philadelphia is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160)
Game 51-52: NY Islanders at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.141; Montreal 10.989
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+165); Over
Game 53-54: New Jersey at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.332; NY Rangers 12.539
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under
Game 55-56: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.216; Philadelphia 12.026
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Over
Game 57-58: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.626; Atlanta 12.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Over
Game 59-60: Nashville at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.851; Ottawa 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-185); Over
Game 61-62: San Jose at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.764; Tampa Bay 11.107
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-140); Over
Game 63-64: Columbus at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.090; Edmonton 12.200
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 65-66: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.976; Phoenix 12.351
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Over
Game 67-68: Dallas at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.787; Los Angeles 11.840
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Tom Freese
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers
Prediction: Under
New Jersey is 10-4-3 UNDER when playing with 3 or more days of rest and they are 8-1-2 UNDER off a win. The Devils are 7-1-3 UNDER after allowing 2 goals or less in their last game and they are 14-5-2 UNDER their last 21 Thursday games. The Rangers are 8-0-1 UNDER following a home loss by 3 or more goals and they are 18-8-2 UNDER with two days of rest. New York is 8-2 UNDER vs. an opponent who scored 2 or less goals in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Doc's Sports
Florida St @ North Carolina
PICK: Florida St +2.5
It is a battle of two underachieving teams Thursday night at Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC. This is the Seminoles first visit to Carolina since 2003 but they have owned this series. FSU has won 14 of the 16 all-time meetings (1 tie) and expect history to follow suit again. The Tar Heels are a one dimensional team having not been able to run the football at all this season and thus the Noles will be able to contain their passing attack since their front four can tee of on the quarterback. FSU is on a three game losing streak but could have won all three of those games if they received a break here or there. UNC has been blown out in their last two losses and that includes a home game with Virginia, one of the worst teams in the league and a team that lost to William and Mary. Christian Ponder has put up impressive numbers this season (9 tds, 1 int) and is playing too well to have a 4-2 record. The Noles can score points and we expect them to win this game straight-up. Getting points is just icing on the cake. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports full card this week in college and NFL football. This includes our ACC Game of the Year, which will kickoff on Saturday. FSU 27, UNC 24.
Stephen Nover
Florida State at NORTH CAROLINA -2'
This is North Carolina's first Thursday night football game in school history. The combination of home field, much superior defense and a coaching edge puts me on the Tar Heels.
Florida State is 2-4 for the first time since 1976. The Seminoles are 0-3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference for the first time ever. They have a cluster injury problem on defense. Bobby Bowden is far, far past his coaching prime. He's not a match for Butch Davis. The wheels are coming off fast for Florida State.
How bad have the Seminoles been on defense? Try 107th nationally in total defense and 90th in scoring defense giving up 28.2 points per game. They rank last in the ACC in all the major defensive categories - total defense, run defense and pass defense.
North Carolina is just the opposite with a strong defense and weak offense. I can see Tar Heels quarterback Tyler Yates stepping up at home against such a weak defensive opponent.
Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder is enjoying an excellent season. But now he's facing the nation's top pass defense. The Tar Heels are ranked No. 1 in the ACC in total defense, too. Defensive end Robert Quinn is seventh in the nation with seven sacks.
1♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at LA Angels -120
We nailed the OVER in Game 4 of this ALCS as a comp play on Tuesday, but tonight we are going UNDER the total with AJ Burnett, and John Lackey on the mound.
Burnett has had his moments where he has been all over the place, but the bottom line is the righty has allowed just 4 earned runs over his last 17 full innings of work dating back to the regular season, and that includes a 6 inning, 2 run effort against the Angels back in Game 2.
John Lackey has been the ace of the Angels staff, and his 2 postseason starts show 13 innings of work, and just 2 earned runs allowed.
True, the last 2 games in this series have both gone OVER the total, but prior to that, New York had been UNDER in 5 straight dating back to the regular season, while Los Angeles had played LOW in 7 of their previous 8.
Expect the pitchers to set the tone tonight, and with the off-day yesterday, expect both bullpens be ready to chip in if need be.
Play the UNDER in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series.
4♦ UNDER
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
G-Man gave you the OVER in last night's NLCS contest to make it 3 straight comp play winners, and an 11-6 run the last 17 days.
For Thursday, counting on both AJ Burnett, and John Lackey doing their thing, as they put a bunch of goose eggs up on the board in Game Five between the Yankees and Angels.
Burnett has closed strong, and despite his bouts with wildness, has only allowed 3 earned runs in his 12 postseason innings. That includes his 6 inning, 2 run stint against the Angels in Game Two.
Lackey has been just as tough, allowing only 2 earned in his 13 postseason innings, and Lackey has also had past success working against this New York lineup.
The last 2 games in this series have both eclipsed the posted price, but the Yankees are on a 2-5 UNDER tear their last 7, while the Angels are on a 3-7 run their last 10 games.
With elimination on the line for LA, and with the bullpens rested from yesterday's off day, look for this one to be played close to the vest, and for the UNDER to be the way to go.
2♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
For Thursday, play the Yankees-Angels game UNDER the total.
I know I misfired with a 10 Dime play on the UNDER in Game 4, meaning the first two games of this series in Anaheim have topped the total. But when you look back at Game 4, that was a 5-1 game with two outs in the eighth inning before New York put up back-to-back three-spots to make it 10-1. What New York did was take advantage of a tired Angels bullpen.
Here’s the difference in this one: Yesterday was an off day, so both bullpens should be very, very fresh tonight. Not that I think we’ll need to see much from either relief staff. Angels starter John Lackey has been terrific at home this year (3.56 ERA), including a 5-0 shutout win over Boston in Game 2 of the ALDS (that game stayed well under the total). And although Lackey gave up four runs to the Yankees in New York in Game 1 of this series, only two were earned and the final score was 4-1 (another under).
As for A.J. Burnett, he’s allowed 1, 2, 1, 1, 1 and 2 earned runs in his last six trips to the hill, and the “under” is 5-1. Both of his playoff starts against Minnesota and Los Angeles were 4-3 finals in extra innings, both playing to the under. Burnett has pitched four times in his career at Angel Stadium (once this year), and three were “unders” with scores of 4-1, 4-3 and 3-2.
Finally, check out these “under” streaks: 20-8-2 in Burnett’s last 30 starts overall, 5-0 in his last five against the A.L. West, 5-2 for the Yankees in these playoffs, 9-3 for the Yankees in ALCS road games, 34-16-2 for the Angels overall (9-4 last 13), 4-1-1 for the Angels as a home favorite, 19-7-1 for the Angels against right-handed starters and 4-0 for Lackey against A.L. East teams.
The starting and relief pitching dominates this one for both teams. Play it low.
3♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees +105 at L.A. ANGELS
Handed out a FREE winner on Wednesday with the Phillies and I'm now 8-3-1 with my last 12 comp selections. Today, I'm coming with an ALCS winner as I play the Yankees to finish off the Angels tonight.
Very tough for the Angels to come back in this one. I know they are thinking that they just need to win tonight to at least force it to a Game 6, but New York is pounding the ball right now and will get enough runs to win this one and set up the World Series matchup with the Phillies.
Los Angeles only managed five hits on Tuesday in their 10-1 loss while the Yankees were pounding the bullpen of the Angels, especially Alex Rodriguez who seems like he can do no wrong in the postseason now, getting three hits and a walk on Tuesday, including a home run.
The Yankees are on some amazing runs lately, including 47-18 overall, 13-5 when they are listed as the underdog, 5-1 against A.L. West teams, 45-17 against right-handed starters and 10-4 when they are road underdogs. With A.J. Burnett (13-9, 3.94 ERA) on the hill, they have won five straight and they are 4-0 when he faces winning teams.
Burnett pitched well in Game 2 of the series back in New York, allowing two runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings as the Yankees won that marathon game 4-3. Back in September, he pitched in Anaheim and allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-2 New York victory.
John Lackey (12-9, 3.66) is on the mound for the Angels and he was the loser in Game 1 in New York. He allowed four runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings in the 4-1 loss to CC Sabathia. He is 5-7 in 16 career starts against the Yankees with a 4.66 ERA. If he’s giving up five runs tonight, he’s going to take the loss again.
Love the way the New York bats have come alive and Burnett will pitch well enough to win. Play the Yankees to clinch the AL Pennant tonight!
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. ANGELS -120
I gave too much credit Wednesday to the Dodgers, who had a total meltdown in getting eliminated by the Phillies. I'm going with another team today that has its back against the wall, but I'm thinking the Angels are going to show more character than their counterparts from L.A. did.
This could be John Lackey's last start in an Angels uniform, as he will be a free agent this offseason, and the big right-hander is not going to go down without a fight. This is exactly who Los Angeles wants on the mound in such a crucial game, and Lackey is 7-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 14 starts at home this season.
Lackey pitched well against New York in Game 1 of the ALCS, but he was done in by his defense and the Angels managed just one run against CC Sabathia.
But Lackey's opponent today is A.J. Burnett, who has pitched well during the playoffs, allowing three runs and six hits in 12 1/3 innings over two starts, but both of those games were in New York. The hard-throwing right-hander wasn't nearly as effective on the road this season, posting a 4.59 ERA in 17 starts.
With the Angels facing elimination, manager Mike Scioscia isn't going to mess around if Lackey isn't at his best. And Los Angeles is a veteran team with a lot of pride, and I just don't see the AL West champs losing two of three on its home field. Take the Angels in Game 5 today.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
JIM FEIST
DETROIT RED WINGS / PHOENIX COYOTES
TAKE: PHOENIX COYOTES
Phoenix earned its third straight win and fifth in the first seven games of the season when defensemen Ed Jovanovski, Adrian Aucoin and Keith Yandle scored with assists from Doan in a 4-1 victory over the Boston Bruins. Detroit is a long way from home and winless on the road at 0-2. Defense has been a problem, allowing 25 goals in 7 games, one of the highest in the NHL. A great spot for the hot home dog, play the Coyotes!
Strike Point Sports
Take Florida State +2.5 over North Carolina
The Seminoles have been a major disappointment this season, however the Tar Heels haven't exactly turned heads this year either. UNC has no high-profile wins this year, and in all their games vs. BCS teams, Carolina has totaled 22 points in three results (1-2). FSU comes in with three straight losses and it's safe to say this is a must-win. Florida State has won three in a row over the Heels and nine of the last 10. We're going with the desperate team here, thinking that the Seminoles will come out firing with their backs against the wall.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Florida State at North Carolina
We are actually quite surprised to see the line move in the direction it has, as we assumed the public would buy into the notion of Bowden trying to avoid his first four game losing streak. In this instance, the public is correct. This is simply not enough points for FSU on the road. The Seminoles have allowed four different opponents to score 28 or more points this year and UNC is 7-0 ATS after leading its previous game by 24 or more at the half.
Play on: North Carolina
EZWINNERS
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -118
Its do or die tonight for the Angels as they try to avoid elimination and send this series back to New York. LA has their big game pitcher John Lackey on the mound and I expect Lackey to get the job done. The Yankees counter with AJ Burnett. I believe Burnett is suffering from a dead arm. Burnett tends to run out of gas around the fifth inning and this happened in game two of this series but the Angels failed to capitalize. I look for the Angels to take advantage here and pick up the win. Play on the Halos.
Wunderdog
New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers
Play: Under 5.5
The Rangers have had a busy schedule early as this will already be their 10th game, and it has suited them well at 7-2. The Devils have taken their lumps at home at 1-3, but have won all three on the road. The Devils are getting good play on the defensive end, but struggling on offense. This has led to a deadlock of eight goals for and allowed over their last four games. The Rangers rested Lundqvist in their last game vs. San Jose, which didn't work out very well as they allowed seven goals. Lundqvist has been very steady as he has not allowed more than three to pass him in any of his seven starts. The Devils tighten up after a win as they have played 8-1-2 to the UNDER after posting the W, while the Rangers have really tightened things up after a big home disgrace of three goals or more by following with an 8-0-1 UNDER mark their next time out. This game has marked signs to be tight and low-scoring, so I'll play the UNDER here.