Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 24

Jim Feist

Kentucky vs. Mississippi St
Play: Under 56

Kentucky is winless in the SEC because of a tough schedule and a struggling offense, scoring 13, 7, 28 and 7 points the last four games. They are 92nd in the nation in passing, 85th in rushing. Kentucky is on a 7-3 run under the total and they take on a fine Mississippi State defense allowing 23 ppg. The under is 26-10 in the Bulldogs last 36 vs. a team with a losing record. And when these teams met last year it was a 27-14 Mississippi State win as Kentucky had just 228 total yards. Play Kentucky/Mississippi State under the total.

Daniel Curry Index

DCI Rankings

Conference USA
Marshall 33.5 at MIDDLE TENNESSEE 25.4, 7:30 pm ET

Southeastern Conference
Kentucky 18.0 at MISSISSIPPI STATE 30.6, 7:30 pm ET

Jim Feist

Kentucky vs. Mississippi St
Play: Under 56

Kentucky is winless in the SEC because of a tough schedule and
a struggling offense, scoring 13, 7, 28 and 7 points the last
four games. They are 92nd in the nation in passing, 85th in
rushing. Kentucky is on a 7-3 run under the total and they take
on a fine Mississippi State defense allowing 23 ppg. The under
is 26-10 in the Bulldogs last 36 vs. a team with a losing record.
And when these teams met last year it was a 27-14 Mississippi
State win as Kentucky had just 228 total yards. Play
Kentucky/Mississippi State under the total.

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Game 105-106: Kentucky at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 83.828; Mississippi State 90.723
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 7; 52
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 10 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10 1/2); Under

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Daniel Curry Index

DCI Rankings

Conference USA
Marshall 33.5 at MIDDLE TENNESSEE 25.4, 7:30 pm ET

Southeastern Conference
Kentucky 18.0 at MISSISSIPPI STATE 30.6, 7:30 pm ET

Doug Upstone

San Jose Sharks vs. Boston Bruins
Play: San Jose Sharks -104

San Jose is 8-1 on the year and scoring nearly 4.5 goals a game so far in the 2013 campaign. Boston is hurt a bit by having to play in Buffalo Wednesday night and might be not as sharp as the well rested Sharks. Play San Jose in Boston Thursday night. I like the over 5 goals if you are looking for a total.

Joe Gavazzi

Mississippi St. -10

Kentucky making slow strides in the first year under HC Stoops. The offense has perked up a bit but the defense is still a disaster allowing 213/5.1 overland and 224 through the air. Two weeks ago, they were battered mercilessly by Alabama 48-7. Playing in the rugged SEC-West, 5th year Miss St. HC Mullen is fully aware that victories such as this must not slip through his fingers if there is any hope for the post season. With a 3-3 SU ATS mark, such is the case in this ESPN Thursday nighter. That statement is supported by the fact that Miss State is 9-3 ATS as home chalk of late and 4-0 SU ATS in this series including 28-16 in Lexington last year. QB Prescott and RB Perkins lead a 200 Club offense that should have their way with the porous Wildcat defense.

Rob Vinciletti

Marshall vs. Middle Tenn St
Play: Marshall -8

Marshall has solid edges on both sides of the ball. They are 115 yards better on offense and 150+ yards better on defense where they are ranked 14th in the country compared to Middle Tennessee at 86th. Marshall has won and cover the last 3 off a bye week. Middle Tenn. is 1-6 ats as a home dog, 2-5 ats vs winning teams and has failed to cover 10 of the last 11 in week day games. They are 0-6 ats if they have lost 4 of their last 5. Coach Stockstill has a mediocre 4-15 spread record off a conference loss. Marshall has won 10 of the last 11 vs losing teams and suddenly this line starts to look alot more manageable. Make it Marshall tonight.

Carlos Salazar

Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
Play: Tampa Bay

Carolina has been a very up and down team all season and Carlos sees them down tonight in Tampa. Even with the loss of Doug Martin Tampa should still be able to get the offense going. The Carolina Panthers have benefited from playing St. Louis and Minnesota and will get more of a challenge from the Buccaneers tonight.

Dave Cokin

Anaheim at Montreal
Play: Anaheim +105

Anaheim continues its road trip tonight with a stop in Montreal. The Ducks finally lost a game last time out, but they might not have to wait long to get right back into the win column.

Normally, I’m not thrilled about taking a team in its next game following the conclusion of a lengthy winning streak. But it looked to me like the Ducks went into a bit of coast mode in the game at Toronto after jumping out to a lead, and this was also a game where the bounces just seemed to be favoring the Maple Leafs. I like the rebound scenario here for what appears to be a pretty solid NHL team.

The Canadiens are not sharp right now. Since returning home from a successful Western Canada road swing, the Habs were fortunate to get past Columbus after blowing a big lead, and they’ve subsequently dropped two straight to Nashville and Edmonton. The blue line play for Montreal has been subpar, and injuries to Max Pacioretty and underrated Brandon Prust are also an issue.

Anything else written here is extraneous chatter. I think Anaheim has a good chance to win this hookup and grabbing even a small plus sign is enough to get me on the Ducks money line.

Matt Fargo

Winnipeg Jets vs. Nashville Predators
Play: Nashville Predators -138

We played against Nashville in its last game and it lost in Minnesota 2-0 on Tuesday. The main reason for that was that the Predators had won their previous two games, both on the road, and it was also their fourth game in five nights and they clearly were not ready after getting shutout. Now Nashville heads back home where it has been dominant for years including a 3-1-1 record this season. The Predators had won three of four at home before losing in a shootout against the Kings in their most recent home game. I expect a bounceback tonight at a decent price on top of it. Winnipeg is riding a two-game losing skid and is coming off a six-game homestand where it went 2-3-1. The Jets opened the season with two straight wins but they have fallen back by going 2-5-1 over their last eight games and while they are 1-1 on the road, having not played on the highway in two weeks is a big disadvantage. Nashville put up only 16 shots in its last game against the Wild so that is going to improve and the defense has a solid edge here as well. Winnipeg is 0-14 on the power play over the last five games and ending that shutout string will not be easy against the Predators as they have not allowed a power play goal in six consecutive games, going 18-18 in those games. The Predators are 4-0 in their last four games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game while going 15-3 in their last 18 games after scoring one goal or less in their previous game.

Jimmy Boyd

Panthers/Bucs Over 40

The Panthers offense appears to be back on track after scoring 30 or more points in each of their last two games. The defense is extremely overrated, and they have not played well on the road this season. In road games they are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game, and the secondary has given up a 70.3% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks.

The Buccaneers offense should get a bit of a confidence boost tonight. They have played back-to-back games scoring 20 points or more. The defense has allowed 22 points per game overall this season. The way these teams matchup indicates this game should be a shootout. Tampa Bay has struggled to complete passes, but they face a very soft secondary. The over is 5-0 in Carolina's last five games against NFC South opponents, and it is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams.

Bill Biles

Mississippi State -10

Kentucky has lost 13 in a row on the road in SEC match ups. If Mississippi St wants a 4th straight bowl game this game is a must win. The home crowd should give them a boost and get the victory.

Steve Janus

St Louis Cardinals +110

I'm taking the 22-year-old rookie from St. Louis to get the Cardinals back in the series with a win in Game 2. Michael Wacha has been nearly unhittable of late, he flirted with a no-hitter in back-to-back starts and is 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.571 WHIP in his 3 playoff appearances. The only run he's allowed in the postseason is a solo home run to Pedro Alvarez. The pressure simply doesn't get to this kid.

I'll take my chances on the youngster against John Lackey, who has been hit or miss in his two playoff starts. Lackey three 6 and 2/3 shutout innings in his last start at Detroit, but at home against the Rays he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. St Louis had 7 fewer runs in Game 1, but they finished with just one fewer hit. I look for the Cardinals offense to come to life against Lackey. St Louis went 82-44 against right-handed starters with a .272 average and 5.1 runs/game.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kentucky +10½ over MISSISSIPPI ST

Kentucky can’t win a football game and seemingly get blown out every week. The Wildcats now stand at 1-5 on the year and most of their offensive and defensive rankings are not very pretty. However, a close look reveals that Mark Stoop’s Wildcats have played the toughest schedule in all of Division I football over the past month with games against #7 Louisville, #20 Florida, #13 South Carolina and most recently against #1 Alabama. Alabama games are always televised nationally and the Tide’s 48-7 win over Kentucky resonates loudly with a lot of Kentucky faders this week. But after three successive games against three nationally ranked opponents, what chance did the Wildcats have of staying close to ‘Bama? Kentucky has now had 12 days rest after a slew of tough games. The Wildcats poor stats have been largely skewed due to their difficult schedule. Kentucky played Louisville tough, they played the Gamecocks tough and outside of about a 12-minute span against the Gators, they played nose-to-nose with that school as well. Kentucky is not among the SEC elite and they still have a long way to go under Stoops but they’ve made big progress, they are getting better every week and they are surely not taking a step down in class when facing Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs are not exactly setting the world on fire with a 3-3 record and that includes a 59-26 loss to LSU. How a power-conference school allows LSU to hang a 59 on them is troubling. MSU also lost to Auburn by four points, 24-20 and to Oklahoma State 21-3. We’re still not impressed. The Bulldogs do get some healthy bodies back this week but this squad has been too erratic and too inconsistent the entire season to get our endorsement in this big-time rivalry game on ESPN’s Thursday Night game of the week. The points are generous enough and they provide us with plenty of room for both an easy cover and a backdoor cover. Overlay.

Pass NFL & CFL

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA -½ over N.Y. Rangers

Regulation only. The line on this game is not out yet but we’re on the Flyers and will post the number as soon as it comes out. Philadelphia has been sitting around for six days in a rather foul mood after winning just one of its first eight games. They have not played since last Thursday when they went toe-to-toe with the Penguins in a 4-1 loss. Philly’s last four games have come against Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Detroit and Phoenix. They also played Carolina, Montreal and Toronto earlier in the year. All of those teams are above .500 and the Flyers could have easily won many of them with a couple of bounces. This is a team that’s loaded with talent that is not going to keep losing at this ridiculous pace. They are also not going to be held to such low scoring numbers much longer because of all that talent up front that includes rookie Tye McGinn, who has a real touch around the net. The Flyers have been sticking with Steve Mason in net as oppose to switching back and forth and that’s another thing we like about Craig Berube. He’s likely told Mason that he’s the #1 goaltender and Mason really is looking better each game. The Flyers are high on our radar. They are the league’s most undervalued team right now because of their one win in eight games but we’re suggesting that this is a playoff caliber team that is going to return great profits over the next little while.

The Rangers also have one win but the difference is that New York is getting blown away on most nights and were even whacked in New Jersey by the previously winless Devils. The Rangers will also play their ninth straight road game to open the year and they have to feeling exhausted. Lastly, New York is going with rookie Cameron Talbot in net over Henrik Lundqvist, who joins numerous other key players on the shelf. The Rangers are a mess right now and could not hav picked a worse time to face the hungry Flyers.

Carolina +148 over MINNESOTA

If we’re playing value on a daily basis then the Hurricanes are an automatic play here. Minnesota has scored two goals or less in seven of its past eight games and that’s because they have one line that can produce consistently. This is a Wild team that might possess the NHL’s best group of d-Men and that makes them tough to score upon but that type of team offers up much more value as a dog than a favorite. The Wild have not hosted a game against Carolina since 2010. They have played them once in Carolina since then. Minnesota has back-to-back games on deck against Chicago, making this a vulnerable spot for them.

The ‘Canes continue to quietly roll along with two wins in a row and picking up points in five of their last six games. On the road, the ‘Canes have won three of four with only loss occurring at Pittsburgh. Carolina is creating tons of scoring chances and continues to be beasts to play against. As a pooch of this size in a good spot on the road, Carolina is once again underpriced.