Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
MISSISSIPPI STATE -10 over Kentucky: The Kentucky Wildcats are the worst team in the SEC and just won't stay in this game for too long. The Cats started the year losing by 9 points to WKU and then blew out Miami-oh 41-7, but since then they have gone 0-4 and have lost each game by 13+ points. The offense has been horrid in SEC play, averaging just 214.7 ypg and 14 ppg vs their SEC brethren. That just won't be nearly enough points vs a Bulldog squad that has averaged 499.3 ypg and 40 ppg, while allowing just 324 ypg and 23.3 ppg on their home field this year. on Defense the Cats have allowed 507.7 ypg and 35.7 ppg in SEC plays, while also allowing 470 ypg and 35 ppg on the road this year. The Bulldogs are 4-0 the last 4 in the series and have won the last 2 vs Kentucky by 12 an 13 points, plus we note that the SU winner has covered the last 11 in this series. I say MSU by at least 17 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Marshall/ MTSU Under 57: I know that MTSU has a bad defense and that Marshall can score allot, but really that's were the bulk of the points will come from. The Thundering Herd come in with a top tot 10 defense, both overall and vs the pass, while they have allowed just 18.3 ppg, which is 14th nationally. Just one team here has a chance to put up any real points in this game and that is Marshall, but still it won't be enough to put this game over the total. Marshall 28-20.
Mid-Major Matt
Kentucky vs Mississippi St
Pick: Under
SEC football takes centerstage on Thursday night as Mississippi State hosts Kentucky. The Bulldogs are 3-4 on the season and are wrapping up a four game homestand. This is an offense that has failed to put up 20 points or more just once this season although they have not faced too many stout defenses. This is a run first team who averages 214 yards per game which is good for fourth in the SEC. Kentucky's numbers against the run aren't very good, but they can stack the box against it since MSU's passing game isn't anything to write home about. Their two best aerial performances came against Troy and Alcorn State who aren't exactly stout. On the opposite side you've got a UK offense that has scored just 55 points in their last four games and it's coincidentally coming when the competition is ramping up. Louisville, Florida, South Carolina and Alabama held the Wildcats passing attack down. These two have played seven unders in their last 12 meetings. Last year MSU won 27-14 in Kentucky going under the 48.5 point total. Miss State has South Carolina, Texas A&M and Alabama up next so they will want to get a nice lead and then coast to victory. We'll take the under in Thursday night SEC football.
Big Kat Sports
Carolina Hurricanes vs Minnesota Wild
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes +140
We're taking a shot with a pretty nicely priced underdog with our Free Play tonight as the Carolina Hurricanes travel to take on the Minnesota Wild tonight at the Xcel Energy Center in Minneapolis. The Canes have won their last three games on the road and now will enter their "Western" part of their 4 game road swing after wins over the Islanders and Leafs to start the trip. They have yet to beat a team from the Western Conference this season but they have been competitive, losing once in OT and twice in a shoot-out so far this year. The Wild have been excellent at home, posting a 3-0-2 record and come into the game off a 2-0 win over Nashville on Tuesday night. Cam Ward, who has played better than his 2-2-3 record would lead you to believe is expected to get the start in goal tonight while the Wild are still undecided as to who will be between the pipes. Josh Harding has filled in for an injured Niklas Backstrom, who has been out since 10/5 with a knee injury but Backstrom has returned to full practices and could be back in goal as soon as tonight. Either way it doesn't matter all that much as he posted a 0-0-2 record with a 3.40 GAA in his 2 starts before getting injured and while he has played well in a fill-in role this season, Harding is a career back-up. Pair that with the fact that the Hurricanes have taken 4 straight head to head meetings between these two teams and we'll tab them at the plus price to get the win as our Thursday Free Play.
Alex Smith Sports
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lighting host The Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday Night. TB beat the Hawks earlier this year in a shootout on October 5th. Chicago hasn't won in Tampa since 2009, and with the Bolts on a 5-2 clip and the Blackhawks losing leads lately, I'll side with the short 'dog in this contest.
Jack Jones
Mississippi State -10½
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have certainly been the better team in 2013. Their three losses have come against the likes of LSU, Auburn and Oklahoma State, which are three of the better teams in the country. They were right there with LSU early in the fourth quarter before a 26-31 deficit turned into a 26-59 blowout as they simply unraveled in the final period. They’ll certainly be hungry for their first conference win Thursday with lowly Kentucky coming to town.
The Wildcats have rarely been competitive this season en route to a 1-5 start. All five of their losses have come by seven points or more, including three by 14 or more. They were just embarrassed last time out in a 7-48 home loss to Alabama, getting outgained 170-668 for the game. Kentucky ranks 100th in the country in total offense at 352.3 yards per game, and 91st in total defense at 437.3 yards per game.
Mississippi State has been solid on both sides of the football. It ranks 35th in total offense at 457.5 yards per game, and 34th in total defense at 364.5 yards per game. The 1-2 punch of Dak Prescott and Tyler Russell at quarterback has been impressive. Prescott has thrown for 890 yards and three touchdowns to three interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 457 yards and eight scores. Russell is completing 70.1 percent of his passes for 381 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.
The Bulldogs should be able to run all over a Kentucky stop unit that ranks 102nd in the country against the run, giving up 213.3 yards per game and 5.1 per carry on the ground. Mississippi State ranks 23rd in rushing offense at 214.3 yards per game and 5.1 per carry. Kentucky is 12-26 against the spread in its last 38 games versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Wildcats are 2-11 against the spread in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Wildcats are 3-13 against the number in their last 16 road games. The Bulldogs are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 home games. Bet Mississippi State Thursday.
Bob Balfe
Boston Redsox -120
The Cardinals young pitcher has been great this year, but he has never played at a stage this big before and this Cardinals team really did not look like they were ready to play yesterday. I don’t think this series is over at all if Boston goes up 2-0. I just think home field really means a lot in this series and the Red Sox at home are tough to beat. Take Boston.
NHL Predictions
Anaheim / Montreal Over 5.5
These two teams have played pretty wide open hockey so far this year. The Ducks are avearging 36.2 shots per game (2nd in the NHL) while the Canadiens are averaging 32.6 shots (6th). Anaheim is giving up 30 shots per game and Montreal is giving up 32.4. The Ducks sit 3rd in the NHL averaging 3.44 goals per game, while Montreal is 6th with 3.22 per game. These two teams don't meet often, but since 2010 in their three meetings we've seen totals of 7, 7 and 5. It has been rare for either of these teams not to score at least 3 goals in a game, as the Ducks have only not done that twice this year (once being their first game of the year when they had 36 shots on net and just one goal) and the Habs have only not done it twice as well. In games at the Bell Centre we've seen totlas of 7 5, 8, 3, and 7 so far this year. With the Ducks playing on the road we've seen totals of 7, 7, 5, and 6. The OVER is 5-2 in Montreal's last 7 vs a team with a winning % over .600. There's a good chance we see this game get over the total, and at a good price I will take the OVER 5.5.
Charlie Sports
Phoenix Coyotes +145
The 6-2-1-1 Phoenix Coyotes of the NHL Western Conference Pacific divsion will take on the 6-4-0-0 Los Angeles Kings also of the Western Conference Pacific division in 2013 NHL action. Phoenix is 2-7 in the last 9 games between the teams in Los Angeles. The home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Phoenix gets the road win.
Wunderdog
Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
Pick: Middle Tennessee State +10
The Marshall Thundering Herd comes into this Thursday Night contest with a 4-2 record, but more importantly, 2-0 in Conference USA play, leading C-USA East. The 4-2 record may look impressive, but the Herd has gotten their four wins vs. teams that have a combined record of 4-17. And, one other team, Gardner Webb, is not even in the FBS. Marshall is just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 road games when posted as a favorite. Middle Tennessee has played well at home. Their biggest test was a seven point loss to East Carolina. ECU is a better than Marshall and this line is similar, so there's value in this line. The Herd is just 2-9-2 ATS in their last 11 on the road vs. a losing team. The Blue Raiders enter off a bye, where they have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four. With the extra time to rest and prepare, play on Middle Tennessee.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON -120 over St Louis: The Cardinals offense has struggled in the playoffs this year, while Boston offense has been a bit better. The Sox do not want to give up their home field advantage so I look for them to go all out here. The Cards could be missing Beltran and Wacha just can't keep up his torrid pace. He is a rookie and could have some jitters tonight. Look for Boston to take that 2-0 lead tonight, behind another solid outing from Lackey and their offense.
Ross Benjamin
San Jose vs. Boston
Play: Under 5
The San Jose Sharks visit the TD Garden in Boston on Thursday to take on the Bruins with the opening faceoff at 7:05 PM ET. According to current NHL betting odds Boston is a -115 money line home favorite and the total is 5.0. The goaltenders scheduled for tonight are Tuukka Rask for Boston and Antti Niemi for San Jose. The road team has won 6 of the last 7-games played between these 2 teams. San Jose has won its last 4-games played in Boston.
Shark Fest
San Jose is off to a terrific 8-1 start to the season. Their only blemish came in an overtime shootout loss at Dallas 4-3. The Sharks last played on Monday and came away with a 1-0 overtime shootout win over Detroit. Antti Niemi earned his first shutout of the season stopping all 24 shots on goal. Niemi has started in all 9-games and has posted a stellar 1.64 GAA and a .930 save percentage. Despite being held to their lowest goal output of the season versus Detroit, the Sharks remain #1 in the NHL averaging 4.3 goals per game. San Jose has an incredible +2.6 goal per game differential this season. Dating back to last season San Jose is 18-6 in their last 24-games versus an opponent with a winning record.
Big Bad Bruins
The Bruins come off a decisive 5-2 road win at Buffalo last night that extended their win streak to 3-games. Backup goaltender Chad Johnson made his first start of the season in the win and stopped 14 of 16 Sabres shots on goal. Tuukka Rask will be back between the pipes for the Bruins this evening. Rask has been nothing short of spectacular in his 7-starts in 2013 posting an excellent 1.29 GAA, and a magnificent .954 save percentage. Boston has gone a very profitable 29-10 in their last 39 after scoring 5-goals or more in their previous game.
Final Analysis
Boston is #2 in the NHL while San Jose is #3 in goals allowed per game. Both #1 goaltenders will play tonight and have been extremely sharp to start the season. Since the start of the 1996-1997 year the specifics entering tonight favor a low scoring affair. Since that time any home team with a total of 5.0 or less that comes off a road win versus a division opponent, versus an opponent coming off a 1-goal win on the road has seen 26 of those 33-game go under the total. That’s a 78.8% winning rate favoring the under. My case is closed.
Dave Price
Cardinals/Red Sox Under 7
Expect to see a low-scoring game with Lackey and Wacha set to get the ball. Lackey has been lights out this season at home where he has a 2.71 ERA in 14 starts. His tidy work at Fenway has resulted in a 10-3-1 unders record this season. It's also worth noting that the under is 12-2 all-time in Lackey's postseason starts. Wacha has been incredible with a 0.30 ERA over his last four starts. Three of those came in under the number easily. Also, keep in mind the under is 4-1 in Wacha's last 5 starts when the total is set at 7.0-8.5. Take the Under.
Ray Monohan
San Jose Sharks -107
The Sharks are the only team in the league without a regulation loss this season, a streak they will continue on this trip to Boston. They get the advantage of getting the Bruins on the second leg of a back to back (with travel) and this team has had good recent success against Boston. San Jose has won 4 of the last 5 including three straight in Beantown. Everyone in Boston will be thinking Red Sox so the Sharks can breeze through town and collect another victory.
Chris Jordan
My free play is in college football, as I like the Marshall Thundering Herd to get it done on the road at Middle Tennessee State in a Conference USA clash.
Rumor has it we're going to see the Herd's hurry-up offense, the same one Marshall led major college football (FBS) with an average of 90.6 offensive plays per game last season. Through six games last season, the average was 92.0 plays. This season, the Herd (4-2, 2-0) is at 80.7 plays per game – ranking 60th in the country in total snaps.
The indicator may have been its last time out, when Marshall needed two scores to win 24-23 at FAU. The Herd returned to their old selves, and tonight I'm hearing it'll be a heavy dose of fast-paced action.
Marshall is averaging 5.58 yards per play, down from 6.07 through six games last season. The Herd is 49-of-98 (50 percent) for the season on third-down conversions, tied for 14th nationally. The red-zone conversion figures are 26-for-29 (89.7 percent), tied for 19th. A little bit faster pace and those higher conversion rates could soar even higher.
I'll lay the points with the Herd in this one.
3♦ MARSHALL
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Kentucky Wildcats getting the points from the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Thursday night college football action.
If nothing else, I just don't believe the Bulldogs should be favored by double digits against many teams in college football, let alone a conference foe that can score points.
After losing to LSU, 59-26, two weeks ago, the Bulldogs stepped out of conference to hang on for a one-point win (21-20) over Bowling Green... from the MAC. Could they have possibly been looking ahead to this game? Possibly, but not likely.
Kentucky hasn't been much better this season and looked completely lost last week in their 48-7 loss at Alabama. But it was encouraging to watch them two weeks ago give South Carolina everything they wanted in a 35-28 loss.
While losing is never a good thing in college football, they did score 28 points against one of the best defenses in college football.
When all is said and done, I'd bet my money on the team getting the points in this game... and tonight it happens to be the road team Kentucky Wildcats.
Take Kentucky as your free play of the day.
1♦ KENTUCKY