Scott Delaney
Two of the better pitchers in the postseason toe the slab tonight, including Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha, who has been absolutely lights out during the playoffs.
Wacha is 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA and was named the NLCS MVP after tossing 13-2/3 scoreless innings over two starts against the Dodgers. The 22-year-old rookie has allowed a total of one run on eight hits in 21 innings of work this postseason, while striking out 22 and issuing four walks. And while I know Wacha made both NLCS starts at home and posted a 4.34 ERA in five games - three starts - on the road during the regular season while going 3-2, I'm not picking him to win the game, I'm taking the Under here because I think he can pitch well.
As for Boston's John Lackey, he's been moved up to the No. 2 spot for the World Series after dominating the Detroit Tigers through 6-2/3 scoreless innings in the ALCS. The veteran northpaw fanned eight and didn't walk a batter in that turn to outduel Justin Verlander in a 1-0 victory.
I don't know who wins this one, and I don't really care. But I do know it'll stay low.
1♦ Cardinals/Red Sox UNDER
Brad Wilton
My free play release for Thursday is the Over in the Panthers-Buccaneers game from Ray James Stadium.
Very low total when you consider the numbers I am about to list...Let's start with the fact Carolina has been humming on offense, scoring 65 points in their last 2 games combined - both games going Over the total.
Tampa Bay has also been Over the total in their last pair of games, primarily because they have allowed 62 points to be scored against them.
Series numbers show 4 of the last 5 meetings between these division rivals having played Over the total, and a more telling stat is the Over is on a 7-2 run the last 9 series meetings in games played in Tampa between the teams.
When you consider Mike Glennon is making just his 4th career start and is likely to commit a few turnovers that could lead to some quick scores, I think you have to play this game Over the total.
Panthers-Buccaneers to make it an 8-2 Over run in games played in Tampa.
2♦ CAROLINA-TAMPA BAY OVER
Brett Atkins
My free play for Thursday night is on the Under in the Kentucky-Mississippi State game, as we're going to see a boring, physical SEC game that will play out more like an AFC North game in the NFL.
Neither team has done anything impressive, to be honest, and while Mississippi State figures to be the easy choice, I'm not so sure the Bulldogs will be up for this one. It's a weekday game against a weak-ass opponent.
Based on tonight's total, the last six meetings would have stayed under the posted number.
Kentucky's offense leaves a lot to be desired, as bad as it's played lately. And Mississippi State, well, I know it has an explosive offense, but again, against an uninspiring opponent, I don't know if it'll ever get into overdrive for this one. Besides, the Bulldogs use a rushing game to power things, and that'll just drain the clock.
Play this one low.
2♦ Mississippi State/Kentucky UNDER
LT Profits
Kentucky vs Mississippi St
Pick : Under 56
This seems like a high posted total in an SEC battle between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Kentucky is 1-5 and it has scored 13 points or less on three of its last four games. The Wildcats are ranked 101st in the country in total offense at 353.3 yards per game and they are 105th in scoring at 20.3 points per contest. Kentucky may have trouble reaching even that modest average here, as if you take out Mississippi State’s 59-26 loss to LSU, the Bulldogs allowed 15.8 points per game in their other five contests. That means that Mississippi State should be doing most of the scoring, and the Bulldogs are good but not terrific offensively while averaging 30.5 points, an average that drop when you stake away 51 points vs. Alcorn State of the FCS. The ‘under’ is 26-10 in the last 36 Mississippi State games vs. teams with losing records.
St. Louis vs Boston
Pick : Over 7
The St. Louis Cardinals struggled vs. southpaw Jon Lester in an 8-1 loss to the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the World Series, but look for a bounce-back game offensively vs. righty John Lackey. The Cardinals are hitting .271 and averaging 5.20 runs per game vs. right-handers this year as opposed to .232 and averaging 3.72 runs vs. left-handers. Lackey was inconsistent while going 10-13 during the regular season, and that inconsistency has continued in the post-season as he had one great start vs. the Tigers but allowed four earned runs and 10 baserunners in 5.1 innings vs. the Rays. The Cardinals are starting NLCS MVP Michael Wacha, who has been dominating, but Boston is a step up offensively from the Pirates and Dodgers, and allowing two or three runs could be enough to push this ‘over’. The ‘over’ is 13-3-3 in the Red Sox last 19 post-season home games.