DUNKEL INDEX
NFL
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
The Vikings look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is coming off a 35-28 loss to New Orleans and is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU defeat. Minnesota is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Vikings favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2)
Game 103-104: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.222; Minnesota 136.599
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Over
NCAAF
Clemson at Wake Forest
The Tigers look to take advantage of a Wake Forest team that is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Clemson is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-14)
Game 105-106: Clemson at Wake Forest (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 96.525; Wake Forest 82.499
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 14; 55
Vegas Line: Clemson by 11 1/2; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-11 1/2); Under
MLB
Detroit at San Francisco
The Tigers look to bounce back from last night's loss and take advantage of a San Francisco team that is 2-8 in Madison Bumgarner's last 10 starts as an underdog. Detroit is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120)
Game 903-904: Detroit at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 17.953; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 17.033
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); N/A
Rob Vinciletti
Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Play: Clemson
Clemson has been better than expected this season. They have covered both games vs winning teams and are 9-3 ats off back to back wins. They have a solid edge on offense averaging over 180 yards more than Wake forest. The Deacons are 0-9 with just 2 spread wins vs winning teams and are a hideous 1-11 ats vs an opponent that allows 6 or more yards per play. Clemson won easily here in 2012 and I expect this one will be another win and cover for The Tigers. Take Clemson.
Jim Feist
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Sacramento Kings
There's nothing wrong with this Sacramento offense, running and gunning in preseason, scoring 103, 99 and 88 points the last three games. This is the third time they've played the Lakers in this preseason and they won the first two, 103-98 and 99-92 -- both on the road, one in Las Vegas and one at the Staples Center. Sacramento is well rested not having played since Monday, while the veteran Lakers had to play the city rival Clippers last night. LA is a veteran team that cares more about getting healthy and they've been awful in preseason, losing their first six games. The defense has been nonexistent, giving up 99 or more in every game but one. Play the Kings.
Dave Cokin
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs kind of let one get away last Sunday, so I'll admit to some concern about the hangover effect, particularly with the short turnaround. But that's offset by a couple of keys. The Vikings are good, but still somewhat one dimensional at times, and they're not really a margin type of team. Also, and most importantly, Josh Freeman is red hot for the visitors. Freeman has quite possibly put together the best two-game stretch of his career coming into this game and I really like backing dogs with hot signal callers. This is not a huge value side, as my numbers put the right price at Vikings -5.5. But that's an edge for the Bucs at least, and I want to go on Freeman here, so Tampa Bay is the play.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Clemson/ Wake Forest Under 59: I gotta feel that the Deacons don’t want to get into a shootout with the Tigers so I will look to the Under in this one. The Clemson offense is explosive, but they may come out a bit flat here after the big win vs Virginia Tech last week. The Deacons allow 183.7 ypg on the ground, but just 221.4 ypg through the air (54th) and that could have this Clemson team using their ground game a bit more here which will eat clock. On offense the Deacons are one of the worst in the Nation with 316 ypg overall (111th) and 22 ppg (97th). They are 101st in rushing but will need to use that ground game in order to keep Boyd and company off the field. Clemson’s defense has been a sore spot for them this year, but they did come off a very good outing vs Va Tech and should have similar success vs a poor Wake offense. Wake will look to control the clock here and I feel they will do it just enough on defense to keep the game under the total. None of the last 6 in the series has put more than 59 points on the board and I don't see it here either.
Cincinnati +3.5 over LOUISVILLE: The Bearcats are 6-1 on the year and have done it with a better than expected offense that has put up 34.7 ppg, after returning just 4 starters from last year, and a defense that has been very good this year, allowing just 18.8 ppg. Cincinnati hasn't played a killer schedule, but the did crush Pitt in their opener and took out Va Tech on a neutral, so they can play against decent competition and I feel that even at 7-0 Louisville is just decent competition. The Cardinals come in perfect on the year, but only be 1 team with a winning record and that was North Carolina, in a game that they nearly blew after jumping out to a huge lead. The Cardinal offense has been very good, putting up 32.7 ppg, but the defense has been a problem in the defense seems to be having problems of late as they have allowed 30 ppg in their last 2 games, which were both vs the Big East. Prior to those games the Cards only played one other team with a good offense and that was Carolina and they allowed 34 points in that one. This is not a great defense and I feel the Bearcats have a solid edge on that side of the ball, while the offenses are pretty even. I look for Louisville to taste defeat for the first time this year as their defense just won't come up with enough stops to win this one
Ross King
Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Play: Clemson
Clemson 5-1 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points the last 3 seasons.Clemson goes for their 4th consecutive win versus Wake Forest so take the #18 ranked Clemson and take them to win by two touchdowns as your freeplay winner.
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Tampa Bay +6½ -108 over MINNESOTA
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Buccaneers aren’t winning but they are in every game. Tampa’s largest losing margin was by seven points to the Saints last week in a game that the Bucs battled back in to almost win. QB Josh Freeman appears to be getting back to his 2010 form, throwing for 748 yards with six touchdowns and one interception in his past two games.
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The Vikings are winning but the offense leaves something to be desired. Minnesota’s passing offense is ranked 27th in the league. Despite a 21-14 win over Arizona last week, QB Christian Ponder had a 8 for 17 passing day for 58 yards and an 18.4 QB rating. The Vikes will continue to rely on the run but that should suit Tampa’s 4th ranked run defense just fine. The Buccaneers have performed well in the underdog role and will continue to do so here in a favorable match up.
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It’s also worth noting that all but one (5-1) of these Thursday night games have gone under the total. With little time to prepare, teams are being more conservative on a short week and that could explain why the pooch is also 5-1 in these contests. With 6½ points to work with in addition to backing the stronger offense, the Bucs appear as good, if not better than any previous Thursday underdog. Minnesota stock is too high right now and that allows us to confidently step in. Upset alert.
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SAN FRANCISCO +111 over Detroit
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Despite having the Giants to win the series, this game 2 price forces us to gladly back them in Game 2. San Fran looks unbeatable right now. They made quick work of Justin Verlander last night and subsequently but not surprisingly, they made the Tigers pen look as bad as advertised. The weak bullpen puts pressure on Doug Fister to be at his best.
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Fister went just 10-10 this season although he probably deserved better with a solid 3.45 ERA and just as solid 3.33 xERA. Fister has good skills right across the board including elite control and groundball rate. However, nothing in his history points to maintaining this level and let’s not ignore his 3.70 road ERA with just four road wins all season long.
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Madison Bumgarner was roughed up a couple of times during these playoffs and that’s why he and the Giants are wrongly being billed as the underdog here. Bumgarner’s strikeout rate in the second half this year was as good as any in the game. Overall he struck out 191 while issuing just 49 walks in 208 frames. His skills (groundball rate, strikeout rate and control) since July 1 were off the charts and he’s firmly among the elite starters in the game. At home this year, Bumgarner went 10-3 with a 2.38 ERA and he’s a dog? That’s insulting.
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Lastly, the Tigers are 26-26 against left-handed starters this season . Last night they were stymied by Barry Zito. After the Cardinals lost to Zito in game five of the NLDS, they never looked the same, losing their next three and being outscored 20-1. San Francisco has now outscored the opposition 28-4 over the past four games, they have a ton of momentum and the fact that Detroit is favored here is ridiculous.
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Bucs / Vikings Over 43FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In part this is due to the Bucs tight rushing defense. If the Vikings cannot run, they'll throw a fair bit. I don't really trust Ponder after last week, but he should rebound and if not, the Bucs will have good field position. In short, I think the Bucs might have the same problem against the Vikings, so this also might be a good 1H under and 2H over bet, potentially. THe Bucs are an excellent draw/screen team, should the Vikings pass rush be more than they can handle. So, we won't fret too much if the first half is lower scoring, as I think it might be. Or, the game could end 3-0, but I don't think so.
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Tampa Bay/ Minnesota Under 43: Tampa Bay has faced Romo, Brees, RG3 and Eli Manning in 4 of their 6 games thuse far, so it's no wonder they have allowed 323 ypg through the air. In those 4 games they allowed 29 ppg, but in their two games vs weak QB's (Cam Newton and Matt Casell) they have allowed just 10 ppg. Now tonight they get to face another weak QB in Christian Ponder, who has an 87.5 QB rating (14th) and who average just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, which is 28th in the league. This is not an offense that will stretch the field. They like to use ball control and work their way down the field a little at a time behind a short passing game and the Running of Adrian Petersen. Those drives will eat clock. Tampa bay has been solid in the passing game, throwing for 245 ypg (15th), but moving the ball through the air vs the Vikes may be a bit tough. QB Josh Freeman is 30th in the league in completion pct (55.6) and he will face a Vikings team that is 11th vs the pass, allowing 220.3 ypg. The Vikings are also 7th in the league in yards per pass attempt against (5.9), so don't expect too many big plays for the Bucs passing game. The Vikings philosophy is if your gonna beat us your gonna have to dink and dunk your way down the field. I expect allot of ball control offense in this one and that will chew up the clock. Look for the mid 30's at best here. KEY TRENDS--- Minnesota is 7-1 to the Under as favs vs .333 or worse opponent during first 9 games of the year, while the Bucs are 10-1 Under in their last 11 games off BB Overs.