Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 27

Hollywood Sports

Lightning at Predators
Prediction: Over

Nashville (3-4-0-1) comes off a 3-1 loss at home on Tuesday to San Jose as a small underdog -- but they are favored for this contest and the Over is 7-0-2 in their last 9 home games when a small favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. The Predators have also seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against Eastern Conference competition. Tampa Bay (4-3-0-2) has seen the Over go 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against an opponent that failed to score more than two goals in their last game. The Lightning have won three games in a row after their 4-3 win at Buffalo on Tuesday. And they have seen the Over go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. With the Total set at just 5, there is a good chance this game pushes if at least six goals are not scored. With those favorable offs, take the Over.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals

Four of the five World Series games thus far have gone Under the total and we expect a similar result this evening for Game 6. The Under is 20-5 in road night starts made by Rangers hurler Colby Lewis. He'll be opposed by Jaime Garcia for the Cardinals, and Garcia did not allow a single run over 7 IP in Game 2 despite his team eventually losing that game. Texas is 50-27 on the road vs. southpaws the L3 seasons and 12-3 Under on the road off a win by 2 runs or less. All three of Lewis' playoff starts have seen the Under cash + the weather is supposed to be chilly again, which led to only six total runs getting scored the first 17 innings of this series.

Play on: Under

Matt Fargo

Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers
Play: Edmonton Oilers +146

Washington has the opportunity to become just the sixth team in NHL history to begin the season with eight consecutive wins and it is also looking to start 3-0 on the road for the first time since 1991-92. The Capitals are coming off a blowout victory over Detroit on Saturday, which was also undefeated at the time, and the four days off in-between could cause a momentum buster. Because of the sensational start, we are getting some great line value with the home team. Edmonton is 4-1-1 at home, losing to Vancouver by a goal in regulation and losing to Minnesota in a shootout. The Oilers have won two in a row at home, starting with a shutout against the Rangers and following that up with a revenge win against the Canucks on Tuesday. The defense has been outstanding of late as Edmonton has allowed only six goals in regulation in its last five games and it possesses a 1.50 GAA at home and its .943 save percentage at home is third best in the NHL. It will be strength against strength as the Capitals bring in a .296 power play percentage which is third in the NHL while the Oilers have killed 91.4 percent of their opponents power plays, good for fourth in the league. Heading west could be the disadvantage for Washington as this is its first time out of the eastern time zone. As mentioned, this is just the third road game for the Capitals and this is easily the biggest price they have put down. Washington is 2-5 in its last seven games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. Capitals defenseman Mike Green likely will not play after hurting his ankle in their last game against the Red Wings as he has not been able to practice this week. Washington is sixth in GAA in the league and the absence of Green, a two-time Norris Trophy finalist, will hurt which could provide an edge for the Oilers who have had struggles putting the goal in the net. The Oilers are 5-1 in their last six games as home underdogs and the home team has dominated this series, going 13-2 over the last 15 meetings. 3* Edmonton Oilers

Rocketman

Florida Panthers vs. Ottawa Senators
Play: Ottawa Senators

Ottawa has won 3 in a row heading into tonight's game. Ottawa is 7-1 overall vs Florida the past 3 years. Panthers are 35-73 in their last 108 games as an underdog. Panthers are 17-36 in their last 53 overall. Panthers are 16-35 in their last 51 games following a win. Panthers are 12-28 in their last 40 vs. Eastern Conference. Panthers are 57-135-9 in their last 201 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Panthers are 18-44 in their last 62 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Panthers are 7-20 in their last 27 vs. Northeast. Panthers are 7-22 in their last 29 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Panthers are 3-11 in their last 14 road games. Panthers are 3-11 in their last 14 games as a road underdog. Panthers are 1-5 in their last 6 Thursday games. Panthers are 0-4 in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. Senators are 7-1 in their last 8 Thursday games. Senators are 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Senators are 12-5 in their last 17 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Senators are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. Southeast. Panthers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Ottawa. Panthers are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Ottawa tonight!

Jack Jones

Rangers/Cardinals OVER 7

I know that we've seen the UNDER go 4-1 in the World Series so far, but as a result I feel there is some nice value with the OVER in Game 6 tonight. Thursday's total set of 7 is the lowest of any game thus far in the World Series.

Colby Lewis and Jamie Garcia are getting too much respect with this line. Lewis is 15-11 with a 4.28 ERA on the season, and Garcia is 13-9 with a 3.60 ERA on the year. These are two average starters that are going to be up against two of the most potent line-ups in baseball.

With both line-ups having seen these starters once, I believe that gives the hitters the advantage in Game 6. Texas is hitting .280 and scoring 5.2 runs/game on the season. St. Louis is batting .273 and putting up 4.8 runs/game on the year.

The OVER is 15-5-1 in Rangers last 21 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a loss. The OVER is 8-0 in Garcia's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 18-7-1 in Garcia's last 26 starts as a favorite. The OVER is 7-0 in Garcia's last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Bet the OVER in Game 6 Thursday.

Jim Feist

Canadiens vs Bruins
Pick: Over

A longtime rivalry game on the ice in Boston. Boston's offense could use a game against a weak defense and the last place Canadians have struggled, 25th in the NHL in goals against. And it's a bad situational spot, lacking depth and playing in the second of a back to back spot. Note that the over is 7-1-3 in the Canadians last 11 games playing on 0 days rest. The over is 13-6-2 in the Bruins last 21 vs. Northeast. Play the Canadians/Bruins Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Miami Hurricanes -13.5

After a slow start to the season, the Hurricanes look like they are getting on a nice roll. The "U" has won back to back games against quality opponents and should be up to play this nationally televised game against a Virginia team that defeated them last year 24-19. The key to Miami's success has been the play of quarterback Jacory Harris. Harris is making good decisions and has limited his mistakes this season. In last years upset loss to Virginia, the Canes threw five interceptions with three different quarterbacks. I look for things to be different this year with a more mature Harris under center. The Cavs pulled off a big upset two weeks ago against Georgia Tech, but came back down to Earth last week as they lost to NC State at home. Virginia has had issues with quarterback play this season and generating points has been an issue as the Cavs are 80th in the nation in scoring offense. Virginia is just 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games against FBS opponents since beating last year as a 14.5 point underdog. Look for the Canes to get they payback. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Virginia vs. Miami Florida

It’s a short week for Virginia and Miami, both with (4-3) records, when the ACC rivals square off Thursday night in Florida. Virginia’s two-QB rotation of sophomore Michael Rocco and freshman David Watford has not been working the past two weeks. The Cavs have really hurt themselves with turnovers, giving away at least (3) TO in five of seven games this year. Virginia has been sound defensively though, ranking 19th in total defense (314 YPG) and 12th against the pass (176 YPG). The defense has also forced two turnovers in each of the past three games. Miami’s run defense has improved tremendously in each of the past three games and the Miami pass defense is solid, allowing less than (200) passing YPG. Big Game James Patrick's Thursday College Football complimentary selection is Virginia - Miami Florida Under the Total.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +135 over N.Y. RANGERS

It really does not matter whether it’s James Reimer or Jonas Gustavsson in net for the Leafs tonight because Toronto is in a great spot. Despite losing its last game in Philly, it was perhaps Toronto’s finest game to date and anything close to that effort gives us an outstanding chance of cashing this ticket. Jake Gardiner has been a real find for the Leafs and youngsters Nazem Kadri and Matt Frattin have also looked terrific in the early going. Throw in face-off specialist Dave Steckel, the pesky and effective Phillipe Dupuis, two very decent lines, some early season confidence and the Maple Leafs might be a lot more dangerous than originally thought. They now catch the Rangers returning home for the first time this year after seven games in three countries and close to a month of traveling. That’s about as tough and unkind of an opening set ever put out for any team and while the Rangers may benefit down the road, they’re very likely to be sluggish in this one. The Rangers won three of their last four games on that excursion but looks can be deceiving. They were extremely weary in its last two games, being completely dominated by the Canucks and they were one of two teams this season that have been outplayed by the Flames. Even at its very best, and they don’t figure to be close to that, this would not be an easy assignment for New York. Play: Toronto +135 (Risking 2 units).

Anaheim +100 over MINNESOTA

If there’s such a thing as a good loss, the Ducks are coming off of one in Chicago in a game that they were crisp, aggressive and a whole lot sharper than they had been in previous games. Jonas Hiller rebounded after two shaky starts and when he’s on, he’s one of the best in the game. The Ducks have dropped three in a row and will play the second game of a season-long seven-game trip here. Although they haven’t showed it yet, this year’s edition of the Ducks is much improved over last year’s, especially defensively and it’s only a matter of time before they get rolling. The Wild are among the league’s weaker teams. They made some questionable off-season moves and just like last year, they cannot put the puck in the net. In fact, the Wild have scored two or less in six of their past seven and five of those went into OT. On a list of teams that are risky wagers as chalk, Minnesota would be at the top of that list and anytime we can play the Ducks over the Wild and are not required to lay anything, you can instantly pencil us in. Play: Anaheim +100 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +101 over OTTAWA

The Senators have won three in a row and as a result, their value has increased. Ottawa has some nice pieces in place but they’re still a big work in progress and those growing pains are going to be there all season long. The Sens last three wins have come against Winnipeg, Columbus and Carolina, not exactly the cream of the crop. Now they’ll play an undervalued Panthers club that has won four of its last six with only losses over that span coming against the undefeated Caps and the talented Sabres. Keep your eye on highly touted rookie goaltender Jacob Markstrom. He’s been even better than advertised and has stonewalled his previous two opponents. The Panthers have seven power play goals on the road this season, tied with Colorado for most in the NHL. That bodes well here against a young Senators defense that has been prone to taking penalties. Ottawa has allowed a league-high 13 power-play goals in 47 chances. Only the Lightning have committed more infractions and the Sens penalty killing percentage of 72% is also last in the league. Special teams and goaltending ultimately are responsible for a large percentage of games and that gives the Panthers a great chance for success here. Play: Florida +100 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

Virginia vs. Miami Over

ACC Coastal Division gridiron action headlines the Thursday night broadcast on ESPN when the Virginia Cavaliers (4-3, 2-5 ATS) invade Coral Gables to lock horns with the Miami Hurricanes (4-3, 4-3 ATS); kick-off from Sun Life Stadium is set to go at 8:00 ET.

The Wahoos are in the midst of the football program’s best season since the Al Groh days, as head coach Mike London’s kids are 67 percent of the way towards going bowling having already tallied four wins on the season. They were favored to win their fifth game of the year last week at home against NC State, but after upsetting the nationally ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets the week before, head coach Mike London’s kids suffered a major letdown and lost outright 28-14. Virginia is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in its two road games played to date winning at Indiana while coming up short in Chapel Hill against UNC. The Cavs are just 3-9 ATS their L/12 ACC tussles.

With the resume new head coach Al Golden brought over with him from Temple, it was only going to be a matter of time until the Hurricanes started playing like the championship versions college football fans had grown so fond of in the past. The season started amidst suspensions and a gut busting loss at Maryland, but the Canes have settled in nicely winning each of their last two games to move into third place within the Coastal Division rankings. After falling in the last minute at Virginia Tech, Miami responded with a solid effort at North Carolina before throttling Georgia Tech by limiting its potent ground attack to just 134 yards while keeping it off the scoreboard in three quarters. Miami’s won three of four at home while going 2-2 ATS and stands 5-2 ATS its L/7 Thursday night confrontations.

Virginia shocked Miami as 14-point home underdogs last season; the loss ended up being one of the final nails to get hammered into former head coach Randy Shannon’s coffin. The loss snapped the Canes two game SU & ATS win streak in their recent series with the Cavaliers. Miami rolled UVA 52-17 as 14.5-point chalk the last time it hosted this rivalry back in 2009. Virginia is 5-3 ATS the L/8 times it went off the board an underdog of 10.5 points or more, but it has only covered the closing number twice in eight tries on Thursday nights. Miami is just 1-7 ATS after posting back-to-back SU wins, but has won and covered each of its L/3 games played under the Thursday night lights. The ‘over’ is 3-1 the L/4 times these programs faced one another in Miami.

Tom Freese

Rice at Houston
Play: Houston

This is a big revenge game for Houston, who was upset last year on the road 34-31 as 9.5-point favorites. That was without QB Case Keenum, who is now re-writing the record books as last week saw the sixth-year senior become the all-time leader in total yards in FBS (16,910) as he threw for 376 yds and 6 TDs in a 63-28 win over Marshall. Keenum leads the nation in passing yards and Houston is #1 in total yds (606.1 per game) and points (49.3). The team has scored 56 points or more in three of its last four games, winning all of those contests by at least 35 points. Rice is 4-14 ATS as a dog of 21.5 to 31 points and has lost 10 straight C-USA road games. In their last four visits to Houston, the Owls have been outscored by a huge 212-94 margin and their last visit was a 73-14 loss as 30-pt dogs where they were outgained 684-377. Houston is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite. 10* on Houston.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Rangers/Cardinals UNDER 7.5

These two teams have played to the under in four of five games this series, and I expect this trend to continue tonight. When Garcia and Lewis faced off in Game 2, we only saw a total of 3 runs scored. The extra day off following the rainout should benefit both of these pitchers. Low-scoring games in St. Louis have been common of late. In fact, the Cards have combined with their opponents to score 7 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 and 14 of their last 20 home games. The under is 7-1 in the Rangers' last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 7-1 in their last 8 World Series games. It's also 6-0 in Lewis' last 6 starts versus NL clubs. The under is 5-1 in the Cardinals' last 6 World Series games and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Also, St. Louis is 11-2 under all-time under manager La Russa in a playoff game when facing elimination. We've only seen an average of 5.5 runs scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

WUNDERDOG

Toronto at New York Rangers
Pick: New York Rangers -145

The NY Rangers have had a tough schedule to open the season, as they have had to play their first seven games on the road. They managed to go 3-2-2 on the extended road trip, and will get a chance to skate on home ice for the first time this season tonight vs. Toronto. The Maple Leafs have enjoyed home cooking early where they are 4-0-1 to start the season, but the road has been a different story where they are just 1-2. Those numbers don't get much brighter for this team, as they are a bleak 8-21 in their last 29 in the role of a dog from +110 to +150. The Rangers have done very well following a road trip of seven days or more where they have come home energized, and have posted a 22-8-1 mark. New York takes their home opener.

Dave Price

1 Unit Rangers/Cardinals Under 7

The Under has been the play this series. These two have finished below the total in 4 of the 5 games and we didn't see more than 6 total runs scored in any of those 4. We didn't see more than 5 runs scored in the two in St. Louis. This comes as no surprise considering the Cards (and their opponent) have scored more than 7 total runs just twice in the last 10 games at Busch Stadium. We'll take the Under tonight.