Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Rice +28.5
Plays on road underdogs (RICE) off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning, are 62-24 ATS since 1992. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 11.3 points. It's also worth noting that this system is 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Rice always seems to get up for Houston. With last year's upset win, the Owls have either won or lost to the Cougars by 17 points or less in six of the last 7 meetings. Rice played an explosive Baylor team to a 25-point game this season and I expect it to keep this one within the number tonight. Take the points.
Steve Janus
Rangers/Cardinals UNDER 7
The total has went UNDER in four of the five games up to this point, and I believe we are in for another low scoring affair in game 5. The total went UNDER in both games in St Louis, with neither game totaling more than 5 runs.The ball simply doesn't fly that well at this time of the year in the Midwest, which takes away a lot of the home run potential that both of these teams have to offer.
This game will feature a Game 2 rematch between starting pitchers Jamie Garcia and Colby Lewis. The two combined to allow just 1 ER on seven hits. Lewis has a 3.36 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 20 road starts this season, and seems to really bring his best stuff to the mound in the postseason. Garcia has been hit or miss, but he has been on his game at home, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.096 WHIP.
With just two games left to decide who will be the 2011 World Series Champions, the pressure grows larger and larger on the hitters to come up with a big at-bat. Combine that pressure with each teams best starting pitchers, and that is why so many playoff games tend to be low scoring.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Rangers last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 12-4-1 in Cardinals last 17 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Make the smart play and BET THE UNDER!
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Virginia +13.5 over MIAMI: The Cavs are not a bad team this year. Mike London has this team playing well and it has started at the defensive end. The Cavs are 36th in total defense and they did hold a strong Georgia Tech team to just 296 yards in their 24-21 win over them. The Cavs also outgained Tech by 111 yards, while Miami outgained them by just 51 yards in their 24-7 win. Both teams did a good job vs the Tech's 17th ranked offense, but Miami's inconsistent offense had problems in that game, while the Cavs put up over 400 yards vs Tech. Miami is not an explosive team and they rely on their defense to win games, but the Cavs have a defense that is better than theirs and the Cavs also have a slightly better offense as well. This is not a great role for the Canes as they are 9-25-1 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 or more and just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a winning team. The last 2 times that Miami was a DD home fav they lost the gamew outright and they were a DD road fav to these Cavs and they lost that game outright as well. I'm not saying an outright Virginia win is in the cards here, but they have more than enough on the defensive side to keep this one close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on road dogs off a home loss of 14 or more points, with 17 or more returning starters. This plays is 62-24 (72.1%) since 1992.
2 UNIT PLAY
Virginia/ Miami Under 48.5: The key to most under plays is defense, and these two teams have very good ones. Virginia comes in ranked 19th in the nation in total defrense (314 ypg) and 12th vs the pass, allowing just (176 ypg). The Miami defense does allow 376 ypg and 21.3 ppg overall, but this unit is stellar at home, where they allow just 310 ypg and 13.8 ppg. Like the Cavs, the Canes are very good vs the pass allowing just 199 ypg (31st). Those pass defenses should have another good showing as niether team is great in that department on offense (as the Canes check in at 80th (213 ypg), while the Cavs are 67th (224 ypg). The Cavs would prefer to run the ball, so they can keep that Miami offense off the field, and they have had success, ranking 36th at 183.1 ypg. Remember, rushing = eat the clock. Miami can run the ball as well as they have churned out 154 ypg on the ground and they will have to run a bit more in this one to try and slow down a solid virginia pass rush. Both teams have the ability for 25+ points here, but this Cavs defense is for real and Miami just doesn't give up much at home. Just as a powerful GA Tech offense about that as the Canes held them to just 7 points and 211 yards on this field last week. I see a tight low scoring game that hits about 40.
1 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Rice Over 71: The Houston Coughars will most likely not be in a BCS game, even though they may finish the season unbeaten, but Case Keenum is still in the midst of a special year and he will continune to put up special numbers in his quest for the Heisman Trophy. No one has been able to stop this offense yet, but the Houston defense hasn't been able to stop anyone either. I look for about 75 points in this one.
NHL Predictions
Kings / Stars Under 5
Arguably two of the NHL's best goalies this season square off tonight, with Los Angeles' Jonathan Quick and Dallas' Kari Lehtonen. Quick is 5-0-1 with a 0.81 GAA, .972 SV%, and 3 shutouts - amazing numbers for being 6 games into the season. Lehtonen is 7-0-0 with a 1.54 GAA and .955 SV%. Both teams have been good to start the season, but are relying on their defensive play and goalies more than their scoring. The Kings are averaging just 2.2 goals per game, while allowing just 1.50 goals against per game. Dallas is scoring just 2.2 goals per game while allowing 1.89 goals against per game. These two teams met on Saturday night in Los Angeles with the Kings winning 1-0. Note that the UNDER is 21-8-2 in the Kings last 31 road games, 12-3-1 in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest, and 6-2 in their last 8 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The UNDER is also 16-7-2 in the Stars last 25 home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home underdog. The UNDER is 6-2-1 in their last 9 meetings in Dallas and 4-1-1 in their last 6 meetings overall. With these two goalies so hot right now and neither team doing much offensively I am finding enough value in this play to make it a 2 unit pick.
Buffalo Sabres -1.5
The Blue Jackets got a big win on Tuesday, beating the Red Wings 4-1 in front of their home crowd. Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets we have to note that it was their first win of the season (and the Red Wings had their back up in net). Columbus is just 1-7-1 on the season. The Sabres dropped both games in a home and home with the Tampa Bay Lightning to fall to 5-3 on the season. Despite the recent set back the Sabres have looked like one of the Eastern Conference's best teams thus far this season. Jhonas Enroth will get the start in goal for the Sabres. He is 1-0 on the season as he got the win in Pittsburgh allowing just 2 goals on 31 shots against. Last season Enroth went 9-2-2 with the Sabres with a 2.73 GAA and .907 SV%. The Blue Jackets are allowing 3.22 goals against per game, and that number jumps up to 4.25 on the road. Also note that the Sabres are averaging 2.9 goals per game on the season and 3 goals per game at home. Buffalo's third ranked penalty kill at 92% should give Columbus' power play (converting at 11.1%) some troubles, while Columbus ranks dead last with a 67.7% penalty kill and an even worse 46.7% on the road. Buffalo beat the Blue Jackets in both of their meetings last season, and won by 5 goals in their game in Buffalo. The Sabres have yet to win at home (as their only home win was actually a game played in Europe) and after two straight losses we know this team will come out hard against the Blue Jackets. The Sabres are the far better team, and given that they haven't won at home and are coming off two straight losses I think they play with an edge tonight and get a big win in front of their home crowd.
Black Widow
1* Rice/Houston OVER 71
Houston has been an OVERS machine this season. That's because the Cougars are scoring 49.3 points and averaging 606 total yards/game, while giving up 23.4 points and 408 yards/game. Rice should be able to do their part in helping get this OVER against this soft Houston defense. The Owls have scored at least 20 points in six straight games despite playing a pretty tough schedule. The OVER is 59-24 in Owls last 83 games overall, and the OVER is 19-7 in Cougars last 26 games overall. Odds makers just cannot seem to set the totals for these two teams high enough. Rice is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992. The Owls are 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. Houston is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 71 points here.
MLB Predictions
St Louis Cardinals -115
The Texas Rangers send Colby Lewis to the mound tonight for Game 6. Lewis has always seemed to pitched pretty well in the postseason, even though he is an average starting pitcher during the regular season (4.40 ERA this season). In these playoffs Lewis is 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .191 opponents batting average. In his start in Game 2 he lasted 6.2 innings giving up just 1 run on 4 hits. On the mound for the Cardinals is Jaime Garcia, who the Cardinals had set up to pitch twice at home (and for good reasons). During the regular season Garcia went 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA at home (compared to 4.61 road ERA) with a 1.11 WHIP, and .230 opponents batting average. Garcia's home ERA in these playoffs is under 2.00, and he pitched 7 shutout innings against the Rangers in Game 2 where he struck out 7 while walking just 1 batter. Take note that the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 World Series home games, and 13-5 in their last 18 home games overall. The Cardinals are 11-2 in Garcia's last 13 home starts vs a team with a winning record, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite, and 9-2 in his last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals have played well in this World Series but a few mistakes have cost them (both by the players and the coaches). Also note that the Cards left 12 runners on base in Game 5 - a game I thought they should have won. Tonight's play comes down to pitching and home field advantage. The Cardinals face elimination and Tony La Russa will do everything he can to force a Game 7 tomorrow night. Jaime Garcia has been lights out at home and I expect nothing less tonight with the Cardinals down 3-2. Take St Louis to win tonight.
WUNDERDOG
Rice at Houston
Pick: Houston -28
The beat goes on for Houston. This is a team that is unbeaten and has made their way up to No. 17 in the BCS standings, scoring at will in the process. They also have an easy schedule the rest of the way out, where they will be favored in every game. So they stand a good chance to finish the regular season unbeaten and in the Top 10. They have won 18 straight at home with Keenum at QB who will finish his career with all the passing records as a QB. He has thrown for 23 TD passes and just two INTs this season. The Rice QB, McHargue, has just eight TDs all season. To put that in perspective, Keenum has nine in the last two games alone. Houston isn't just a passing team as they have scored 20 times on the ground, which is five more than the Rice's team total TDs overall. Houston has scored 38+ in all home games with Keenum at QB against non-BCS conference teams, and they are 13-1 ATS in his last 14 here. Rice's defense ranks No. 115 out of 120. Rice is 4-14 ATS in their last eighteen games as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points and they have posted a 9-21 ATS mark in their last 30 road games vs. winning teams. That includes a 1-10 ATS record vs. great offensive teams like Houston (those averaging 450+ yards per game). This one goes to Houston easily.