Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 28,2010

Tom Freese

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic

Orlando is 22-8 ATS their last 30 Eastern Conference games. The Magic are 15-5 ATS their last 20 games overall. Orlando is good enough to make the NBA Finals this year. The Magic are 40-15-1 ATS vs. NBA Southeastern and they are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games with th Wizards. It looks like it will be a long season for the Wizards. Washington is 3-9 ATS their last 12 games vs. Eastern Conference teams. The Wizards are 8-24 ATS vs. teams in their Division and they are 27-46 ATS when the Total is 190 to 199.5

VEGAS EXPERTS

Florida State at NC State

These teams combined for 87 points and 1100 yards total offense in last year's meeting. NC State comes in with the top-ranked offense in the conference, averaging 36 points per game and 449 yards total offense. They have gone Over in 10 of their last 11 league games and are a perfect 7-0 Over following a game where the committed three or more turnovers.

Play on: Over

SEAN MURPHY

Florida St @ North Carolina State
PICK: Florida St -3.5

This line suggests that N.C. State has closed the gap considerably between itself and Florida State - note that the Wolfpack closed as double-digit underdogs against the Seminoles in each of their three meetings over the last three years.

While N.C. State is much-improved here in 2010, so is Florida State. The difference here is that the 'Noles bring a ton of momentum to the table, having won five consecutive games. The Wolfpack are coming off a disappointing overtime loss at East Carolina last time out and have now dropped two of their last three games overall.

I'm not a big believer in N.C. State's home field advantage. Last season, the Wolfpack went 5-3 SU here in Raleigh, but two of those victories came against FCS opposition. They lost home games against South Carolina, Duke, and Clemson, with the latter two coming by 21 and 20 points.

Here in 2010, N.C. State has posted a nice nationally-televised win over Cincinnati, and also defeated Western Carolina and Boston College - but lost its lone step up game against Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack are a perfect 3-0 SU as a home favorite, but 0-1 SU and ATS as a home underdog, as is the case this week against Florida State.

The Seminoles took a beating at the hands of Oklahoma on the road in early September, but since then have rebounded to beat both Virginia and Miami away from home, with those wins coming by a combined 48 points.

We're able to grab some considerable value with the 'Noles in this spot for a couple of reasons.

First, FSU is coming off a less than impressive 24-19 home win over Boston College. I'll chalk up that ugly performance to a hangover following the dominant win over the Canes in Miami.

Second, the Wolfpack have dominated this series from an ATS perspective, going 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Keep in mind, N.C. State was dogged by at least a touchdown in eight of those nine contests. Florida State has actually won three consecutive matchups, with only last year's 45-42 victory being decided by less than four points.

'Noles QB Christian Ponder has been dealing with an elbow injury, which likely contributed to him completing just 19-of-31 passes for 170 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions against Boston College. The bye week has undoubtedly helped him get healthy, and it's been reported that he's looked fine at practice.

Of course, it helps that he can lean on a ground game that has produced over 211 rush yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per rush this season.

All things considered, I don't believe that these two teams are on the same level. The Wolfpack had plenty of success early this season, but they've struggled since, and I suspect they'll have a tough time keeping up with the 'Noles for four quarters on Thursday night. Take Florida State.

Jim Feist

Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz
Take: Over 209½

Utah is in the second of a back to back spot, while Phoenix is rested. That means Steve Nash and the uptempo Suns will run right at the Jazz. Utah has a sparkplug guard of its own in Deron Williams. The point guard is energized by the enthusiasm that has arrived with Al Jefferson, Bell, and the rest of the newcomers. Look for an offensive showcase, Play the Suns/Jazz Over the total.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Wizards/Magic UNDER 191.5

Washington was a solid Unders investment last season, and I believe this will continue to be the case until all the new faces can jell. Washington is on a 51-29 Unders run. It is also on a 15-5 Unders run in road games when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points. The Magic have been a solid Unders play as well, going 56-38 Under in their last 94 games. The Under is also 14-6-2 in their last 22 home games. The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Orlando. The Under is 15-5 in the Wizards' last 20 road games and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or more points. With rookie point guard John Wall sure to experience some growing pains, and with Gilbert Arenas due to miss tonight's game, the Washington offense will struggle enough to keep this one Under.

BIG AL

Texas Rangers @ Giants
PICK: Giants

The game one victory by the Giants was huge for at least two reasons. First, it allowed the team to maintain home field advantage going into tonight's game two and prior to leaving for three straight games in Arlington (MLB uses the 2-3-2 playoff format as opposed to other professional sports). Second, and most importantly, it was a big psychological win knowing that they can knock the stuffing out of the guy considered to be probably the #1 starter of the entire MLB postseason (Cliff Lee). The Giants have modified their rotation (before the series started) to give righthander Matt Cain the start tonight in this important game two match-up. Cain was nothing short of brilliant in both his NLDS start against the Braves and his NLCS start against the Phillies, and he has now pitched 13 2/3 innings in his post-season career without surrendering a run while allowing a total of just nine hits. He was similarly brilliant in his one and only career start against the Rangers, although he did not get a decision in that one despite allowing just one run on three hits in eight innings. On the other side will be regular #2 starter and southpaw C.J. Wilson, who didn't fare as well against the Yankees in two NLCS starts, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA (nine runs - eight earned, on 12 hits in 12 innings). Wilson has never faced San Fran in his career before. Look for the Giants to give him a rude welcoming tonight not too different from the way they treated Lee. Take San Francisco.

LARRY NESS

Phoenix @ Utah
Pick: Utah -6.5

The Suns and Jazz have both opened 0-1 this year. The Suns let a lead slip away Tuesday night in Portland, getting outscored 31-11 in the 4th quarter in a 106-92 loss to the Blazers. As for the Jazz, they got 'run out' of the Pepsi Center last night by the Nuggets, losing 110-88. The Suns' total of 92 points and the Jazz's total 88 hardly reminds anyone of last year's teams. Phoenix led the league with 110.2 PPG last season with Utah ranking fourth in scoring at 104.2. I played against the Suns Tuesday night and won against the Jazz last night, as Denver was my Western Conference Game of the Month. What's up here? I'll side with the home team, even though the Jazz are traveling off last night's game in Denver. I like NOTHING about the "new-look" Suns. Nash and Richardson combined for 48 points vs Portland but the team's other three starters, Turkoglu, Hill and Lopez, played 88 minutes while scoring 15 points and grabbing nine rebounds (some frontcourt!). The Suns will REALLY miss Stoudemire, will miss Barbosa's scoring 'punch' off the bench plus Amundson was solid performer as a reserve up front. The Jazz have their fair share of woes as well with Boozer, Korver and Matthews gone plus Okur sidelined to around January 1, but I like Sloan and this team has always been a 'tough out' here in Salt Lake City. Lay it with the Jazz.

Sam Martin

Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Texas Rangers

We took a tough loss on the Rangers last night, but we still think the value lies with the road underdog here. We thought the Texas bats would get to Lincecum and the Giants, and the Rangers did just that with seven runs scored on eleven hits. It just so happened that Cliff Lee suddenly become ?human? last night, and the Giants put up an uncharacteristically huge offense burst. We don?t think that will happen again here tonight, and we?ll take the Rangers and their bats to even this series up at 1-1.

EZWINNERS

Utah Jazz -6.5

The Suns might be in for a down season. Phoenix will be a different team this year with the loss of Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks and father time might have caught up to Steve Nash this season. Nash struggled on the defensive end in the Suns opening game against the Blazers and looked winded in the second half of that game. Nash is what makes this team go, and if he struggles this team will be in for a long season. The Jazz lost Carlos Boozer over the off season, but they replaced him with Minnesota's Al Jefferson. Jefferson should be a very good replacement for Boozer and Darin Williams is one of the top guards in the league. Energy Solutions Arena is one of the strongest home floors in the league, and the Jazz covered 25 of their last 34 regular season games as host last season. Look for that to continue here. Lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.C. STATE +4 over Florida St.

The Seminoles stock is soaring after its fifth straight win, but we’re not close to being sold on them as the 16th ranked team in the land. On a Thursday night nationally televised game, playing ranked vs unranked and laying chalk on the road seldom works out well. You can expect the Seminoles to be taking most of the money here but frankly, we’re not sure why they’re getting so much credit. Yeah, they’ve put up big numbers and that has influence but a close look reveals that they have zero signature wins and have beaten up on a slew of cupcakes and the three worst teams in the ACC. Three of the Seminoles conference wins have been against Boston College (barely), Wake Forest and Virginia. That trio is a combined 1-10 in conference play. Two of FSU’s other wins came against BYU and Samford. They do have one decent win over the Hurricanes, a 45-17 blowout but don’t put too much emphasis on that. The Seminoles jumped out to a huge start and the game was 21-0 just 20 minutes into it and the Canes could not recover. When FSU played a strong team on the road they were absolutely crushed to the tune of 45-17 at Oklahoma. QB Christian Ponder’s numbers do not stick out one bit even against some weak opposition. In that blowout win over Miami he threw for just 173 yards. In last week’s narrow win over Boston College, he threw for 170 and three picks. Overall, he’s averaging a measly 169 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack crushed common opponent B.C. to the tune of 44-17. They also have wins over Georgia Tech and Cincinnati and went nose to nose with #23 Va Tech. QB Russell Wilson is averaging over 300 yards per game against much tougher opponents than Ponder has faced. A good offense whacked FSU once already and a similar fate likely awaits them here. The Seminoles are simply not nearly as good as advertised. Definite upset possibility. Play: N.C. State +4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

SAN FRANCISCO -1.18 over Texas

Wilson put together a solid season in 2010, but his 3.35 ERA was somewhat fortunate, mainly the result of a 27% hit rate. However, his second-half 3.89 xERA was right in line with his playoff 3.93 ERA. He has been both lucky and unlucky in the postseason thus far, with a 23% hit rate and 57% strand rate. His control has been off, walking 3.9 hitters per 9 innings, and his usual ground-ball tendencies hit the golf course early--his postseason 27% GB and 49% FB rates portend potential disaster. He is 1-1 in the postseason and has only lasted 7 innings once in three starts. The Giants are hoping that Cain can keep this thing going. He has a 0.00 ERA in two starts, allowing just 9 hits in 13 2/3 IP. The zero earned runs aside, his success is supported with great stuff and command. His gem was a seven-inning, two-hit start in Game 3 of the NLCS, although he did walk three batters in the game. He definitely enjoyed pitching at home in 2010, with a .591 OPS at home versus a .695 OPS in the road. He'll be starting on 8 days' rest, but has done well in his career on long rest, with a 3.07 ERA in 15 starts (versus his career 3.45 ERA).

Lineups: So much for the pitchers' duel. The Giants touched up Cliff Lee for seven runs (six earned) on eight hits in Game 1. They continued the onslaught against the Rangers' bullpen, ending up with 11 runs on 14 hits. Juan Uribe hit a three-run homer off of reliever Darren O'Day, but the big hero was Freddy Sanchez with four hits, including doubles in his first three AB (a World Series record). Andres Torres started and led off, with Uribe at 3B and Edgar Renteria at SS. The lineup should be the same for Game 2, but don't expect the same results. Game 1 was only the second time the Giants have scored more than four runs since September 25. The Giants have a collective 18 PA against C.J. Wilson, although they've taken advantage with a .911 OPS. The Rangers chased Tim Lincecum from the game in the 6th inning, but they were already down 8-4 at that point. They did manage to add three runs in the 9th inning, but two of them were off of mop-up man Ramon Ramirez. Only two Rangers--Bengie Molina and Mitch Moreland--had more than one hit. Expect no changes for Game 2, as the Rangers are again facing a right-hander. The Rangers committed four errors in the game, including two by DH-turned-OF Vladimir Guerrero. David Murphy, anyone?... After all the hoopla about base-running, the Rangers attempted zero stolen bases in Game 1, although being down six runs will do that... Think Giants manager Bruce Bochy is old-school? He's used closer Brian Wilson 19 times in 2010 in non-save situations, including Game 1. However, he managed to use 6 relievers in a game where they never led by less than four runs after the 5th inning. Play San Fran -1.18 (No bets).

BOSTON -½ +1.00 over Toronto

The Leafs broke a three game losing streak with a win over the Panthers and it wasn’t pretty on two fronts. First, they weren’t sharp at all and secondly, the zebras made the worst non-call in 10 years. The Leafs also suffered its first casualty of the season when Colby Armstrong injured his finger and will be lost for 4-6 weeks. So, not only have the Leafs looked very ordinary in its last three games (Rangers, Flyers and Panthers), they’re still not scoring goals and one of its top “role” players is on the rack. The Bruins are well rested, having been off since Saturday. They’re coming of a 3-2 home loss to the Rangers and that’s a long time to sit with that loss hanging over them. The B’s are loaded everywhere and the trade that sent Denis Wideman to Florida for Nathan Horton has to be considered the steal of the decade. In fact, the Bruins have the two steals of the decade. The other one occurred when they sent Andrew Raycroft to Toronto for Tuukka Rask and now the Bruins have the best goaltending duo in the league. Bottom line here is that the Bruins are the vastly superior squad in a good spot and anything but a regulation win would be a big surprise. Play: Boston -½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

Sports Insights

Florida State vs. NC State

After getting pounded by Oklahoma, Florida State has rebounded with five straight victories, including a 45-17 destruction of rival Miami.

Their opponent, NC State, jumped out to a 4-0 record this season, however, the Wolfpack's fast start has begun to lose momentum. Since the beginning of October, NC State is 1-2, including a 33-27 overtime loss to East Carolina in their last game.

Florida State opened as a 3.5-point favorite at CRIS and, even though the Seminoles are currently receiving 66% of spread wagers, the line has stayed relatively stable throughout the sports marketplace. Even with the lack of significant line movement, the Betting Trends data suggests sharp money is coming down on NC State. Sports Insights' Betting Systems concur, triggering one positive Smart Money Play and three positive Steam Moves, including one at Legendz (+8.4 units), on NC State.

At the time of publication, the majority of sportsbooks are offering NC State at +3.5, but three have moved to a full 4. Do some line shopping, follow the sharp money and take NC State and the points.

NC State +4

Wunderdog Sports

Colorado Avalanche vs. Calgary Flames
Play: Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche is already road seasoned on the young NHL campaign. Tonight’s game will be their seventh road game in their first 10 played. So far they have done a great job, having gone 3-2-1. They have also been very aggressive and successful on the offensive end, scoring at least 2 goals in every game so far. It has been feast or famine for the Flames, who have recorded a pair of shutouts, but also surrendered a pair. They have scored 20 goals in four of their games combined, but have also played four where they have scored a total of just 5. So is this the game of feast or famine vs. the Avalanche? Past history tells us famine, as the underdog has won nine straight times in this matchup. Overall, the Avalanche has been on the winning side in six of the last eight. Colorado gets the job done tonight.

Bettor Wins

Florida State vs. NC State
Play: NC State +3.5

N.C. State's offense is led by Wilson, who's first in the conference with 303.4 passing yards per game and 18 touchdowns. However, he threw three interceptions against East Carolina and posted his second-lowest rating of the season. Florida State has taken the last three meetings in the series, winning 45-42 at Tallahassee on Oct. 31 on receiver Bert Reed's 3-yard touchdown run with 1:36 left.

Doug Upstone

Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Over 207½

Phoenix and Utah both lost their openers decisively with poor defensive efforts, allowing 106 and 110 points respectively. Each Western Conference club also underperformed offensively, as neither scored 93 points in their loss. Oddsmakers see both squads getting the offense back on track, particularly against so-so defensive teams with the total at 208.

In the NBA tonight, look to Play the OVER when the total is 200 or higher, when either club is off a road loss, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. Over the past 14 years, this system is 26-6, 81.2 percent.