Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -115
If the hot San Francisco sticks can knock Cliff Lee out of the game, they can certainly get to C.J. Wilson, who is just 2-7 on the money line in his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants have won 12 of the last 13 meetings with Texas, including 10 in a row at home. The Giants are 8-2 in Cain's last 10 starts, and I expect them to take care of business behind another solid performance from Cain here.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Rangers/Giants OVER 7 Runs
Texas and San Francisco exploded for 18 runs last night, despite send two of the best pitchers in baseball to the hill (Lee and Lincecum). I expect these teams to swing the stick again tonight, and the Over will be the result. The Over is 4-0 in the Rangers' last 4 playoff road games and 6-0-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Over is also 4-1 in the Giants' last 5 playoff home games. Bet the Over.
Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns +7.5
The Utah Jazz clearly miss Carlos Boozer and they're going to suffer this season because they let him go. Utah lost 88-110 at Denver last night as they shot just 38.6% from the floor. The Nuggets only shot 43.7% and still managed to blowou out the Jazz by 22 in a game they were never in. Phoenix has had a days' rest following their 92-106 loss at Portland, a game where they were beating the Blazers heading into the fourth quarter but got blown out in the final period. The Suns shot 48.6% from the floor but 19 turnovers doomed them in the end.
Since both teams are coming off losses, I expect each to be highly motivated for their first victory. The extra days' rest will certainly help the Suns, and I really like this Phoenix team as a whole compared to the Jazz. Utah loses a lot of offense and a great rebounder in Boozer. Deron Williams was a much better player because of Boozer's ability to hit the 15-foot jumper in the pick and roll game. Williams has to basically change the way he has played throughout his career because the Jazz don't have another pick and roll guy like Boozer. Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss, and 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 when playing on 1 days rest. Bet the Suns Thursday.
Black Widow
1* on Orlando Magic -13.5
The Orlando Magic are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, though they are getting overlooked because of what's going on in Miami. They even have to take a back seat to the Boston Celtics who aren't getting any younger. The Magic return their entire starting five and they have a bench that most teams in the league would envy. The Washington Wizards stand no chance of even being competitive in this game tonight due to injuries. Gilbert Arenas is out with an ankle injury and Josh Howard is out due to a bum knee. There won't be one position on the floor tonight where Orlando won't have the better player head-to-head. The Wizards are 8-26 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Southeast opponents. That includes 2 straight double-digit losses to the Magic by 27 and 14 points, respectively. Orlando has proven throughout the last few seasons they they can cover these big spreads and that they own the Eastern conference during the regular season. The Magic are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 vs. Eastern Conference, 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 vs. NBA Southeast, and 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite. Better yet, Orlando is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Take the Magic and lay the points.
Bobby Maxwell,
Florida St. at N.C. STATE (+3')
For my comp selection, North Carolina State is anxious to get back on the football field. The Wolf Pack haven’t played since an ugly overtime loss at East Carolina and they get a chance at redemption at home tonight in a key ACC matchup on national TV against Florida State.
The Wolf Pack fell 33-27 in OT as a 7 1/2–point road favorite back on October 16 and have been waiting almost two weeks to get back on the football field. At home this season, they are a scoring machine, putting up 38 points a game and 475 yards per contest, including a whopping 348.2 through the air.
NC State has a very confident QB in Russell Wilson who already has 2,124 yards passing, 18 TDs and nine INTs. He throws it all over the field and had 52 pass attempts against East Carolina and three TDs. But don’t think the Wolf Pack can’t run the ball, they had three players with double-digit carries in their last game, including Mustafa Greene who had 75 yards on 16 carries.
I know Florida State has rattled off five straight wins, but look at their lone loss, a 47-17 drubbing at Oklahoma – a team that also throws the ball all over the field and plays that hurry-up style of offense.
In this rivalry, NC State is always the team at the pay window, cashing tickets when the game is over. The Wolf Pack are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Seminoles. Last year the Wolf Pack went to Florida State and fell 45-42 as 10 ½-point underdogs.
NC State is on ATS surges of 13-6 in ACC contests, 6-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 13-3 after a bye week and 15-6-1 against winning teams. Florida State is on ATS skids of 1-4-1 on Thursdays, 3-7 after a straight-up win and 2-8-2 as a road favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points.
I’m going to grab the points and play the Wolf Pack at home in this one. They don’t have to win the game outright to cash our ticket, but I sure wouldn’t be surprised to see the outright upset.
4♦ N.C. STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Washington at ORLANDO (-13')
After getting upset by Boston in last year’s Eastern Conference finals, and then having to listen to all the talk about the Miami Heat all summer long, Orlando enters this season with a big-time chip on its shoulder. And the Magic showed during the preseason that they’re not screwing around, not only winning all seven of their exhibition games but doing so by an average of 25 points per game!
Yeah, I know, preseason games are meaningless. But clearly Orlando was building a mindset leading up to the regular season, and I think it was a smart move by coach Stan Van Gundy to try and instill a killer instinct into his team, which is often viewed as soft.
In fact, that softness was on display early in 2010 when Orlando lost consecutive games to lowly Washington in the span of a month, falling by seven as a 7½-point road favorite and by one as a 12½-point home chalk. But the Magic avenged both defeats later in the season, rolling 109-95 on the road and 121-94 at home, improving to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS against Washington since the end of the 2007-08 campaign.
The Wizards did improve their team in the offseason, and I can’t wait to watch No. 1 overall pick John Wall do his thing. But they still have a long way to go to reach Orlando’s level. And while Wall figures to be a handful Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson, Washington has NOBODY to front Dwight Howard (the Wizards have three 7-footers on their roster, and they’re named Yi Jianlian, JaVale McGee and Hamady N’diaye!).
Despite losing to the Celtics in the playoffs, Orlando closed last season on a 15-5 ATS run, going 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Magic have also dominated Southeast Division rivals at the betting window, going 40-18-1 ATS in the last 59. Conversely, the Wizards have cashed just eight times in their last 34 divisional contests.
2♦ ORLANDO
Joel Tyson
Phoenix (+6) at UTAH
On the hardwood for Thursday, going to take the Suns plus the points at Utah.
The Jazzmen were just routed last night at Denver, and while they have been a money-maker at home over the years, Utah is sans Mehmet Okur and his absence will make it harder for the Jazz to pull away from teams until his return.
Phoenix did close the season last year with a pair of wins and covers in as many games against Utah, and the visitor has been the play in 13 of the last 19 season series meetings between these clubs.
Going to grab the points and look for a close one in Salt Lake City tonight.
1♦ PHOENIX
Stephen Nover
Texas at SAN FRANCISCO (-120)
I'm playing the Giants to win Game 2 of the World Series with a pitching matchup of C.J. Wilson versus Matt Cain.
The Giants lit up Cliff Lee last night and they certainly can light up C.J. Wilson, another southpaw.
The Rangers peaked against the Yankees, or maybe they just exposed an aged New York squad that lacked speed and front-line starting pitching outside of CC Sabathia.
The Giants are a confident bunch, while the Rangers have to be reeling having committed four errors in Game 1 and watching Lee get shelled for the first time ever in postseason.
Maybe it's cultural shock that is hurting the Rangers, too, along with World Series inexperience. There is no DH and the Rangers aren't used to playing in a pitcher-friendly West Coast park.
The Rangers also have to deal with Matt Cain, the one postseason pitcher who had been hotter than Cliff Lee. Cain is unscored upon during two postseason starts spanning 13 2/3 innings.
During this time frame, he's struck out 11 and walked five while holding batters to a .170 batting average.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Craig Davis
Texas at SAN FRANCISCO (-125)
I'm backing the SF Giants to take a 2-0 lead as they head back to Texas for Game 3 in a couple of days. Last night the Giants bats did a number on Cliff Lee and the entire Rangers bullpen. Obviously no one saw that game coming because the total was listed at 5 1/2 in Las Vegas.
Lee was tattered for 6 ERs in 4 2/3 innings of work by the suddenly-surging San Francisco bats. Like I said in my analysis of the Giants in the series, I believe they have better overall pitching than Texas and there's no doubt they proved it in Game 1.
Tim Lincecum wasn't even as good as he normally is, but still managed another post-season win. Tonight the Rangers have to deal with a pitcher who's just as hot as the long-haired one... Matt Cain. Cain is 1-0 this post-season in 13 2/3 innings, and he has yet to allow a single earned run. Even though the Rangers bats are still hot from the Yankees series, I'll take my chances with a pitcher who might be the hottest pitcher in the post-season, now that Cliff Lee has been pounded.
CJ Wilson counters for the Rangers, and he was beat up in his last start against the Yankees, and we've already seen how the Giants handle lefties. Wilson allowed 8 earned runs in his last two starts against the Yankees, and even though New York's bats are better than San Francisco's on paper in the regular season, the Giants are clearly hitting better right now and should have no problem getting to Wilson early.
The Giants win tonight behind the arm of Cain and the resurgence of this offense.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Karl Garrett
Texas at SAN FRANCISCO (-120)
Your comp play winner is to back San Francisco over Texas.
The Giants came out last night and knocked off the best the Rangers have to offer in Cliff Lee, and you can sure bet the Rangers are reeling just a little, while the Giants come into this home contest flying high.
C.J. Wilson can be very inconsistent, as evidenced in the ALCS when he was rock-solid in Game 1 against the Yankees, but in his second start he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits, while walking 4 in just 5 frames of work. The way San Francisco swung the bats last night, I would say that C.J. probably won't be around much past the 5th inning tonight. And the way the Texas bullpen was a non-factor last night, I would also say that the Giants have a very real shot at heading to Arlington up 2-0 in this series.
San Francisco starter Matt Cain is 1-0 in 2 postseason starts this October, and has not allowed an earned run in nearly 14 innings of work.
G-Man going to ride the Giants bandwagon in Game 2.
5♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Derek Mancini
Texas (+105) at SAN FRANCISCO
So the Giants beat Cliff Lee... Therefore, they should easily be able to beat C.J. Wilson, right? Wrong! Expecting consecutive big games from this Giants offense goes against everythingwe've seen this season. Sure, they got to Lee, but that doesn't erase a season's worth of struggling to score runs! It's Texas' turn Thursday, as they have the bats to keep it going, unlike San Fran.
So C.J. Wilson struggles in his last start, getting roughed up by the Yankees, and now bettors everywhere are fading him? Did I miss something? He was great in his first two postseason starts, allowing 3 runs over 13 1/3 innings, striking out 11. And because he has one bad game against a great offense, he's fade material?! Guys, this is the perfect spot for Wilson to rebound, and I could care less what they did to Lee yesterday, I'm not fooled. Not only is Wilson's ERA lower on the road, than at home, but he has a lower WHIP over his L3 starts than Matt Cain... So don't tell me he can't get it done tonight at AT&T Park!
Speaking of Cain, everyone simply assumes he's going to be great in this spot.... Um, didn't we learn anything from Lee's start? You don't know how a pitcher is going to react under the spotlight, and this being Cain's first World Series start, it remains to be seen. We all know the Rangers have more pop than the Giants, and it wasn't just Lee that struggled last night, Lincecum didn't have a very good game either.
Rangers know what a loss here means, and I expect Wilson to bounce back strong in this spot. Don't get caught overestimating this Giants offense just because they had a good Game 1, Texas is by far the superior offense here. And let's not forget the Rangers shot themselves in the foot with 4 errors last night, which is unlikely to happen again in this contest. Texas (Wilson) over San Francisco (Cain) Thursday.
2♦ TEXAS
Michael Cannon
Texas at SAN FRANCISCO (-115)
Okay, I had to eat crow today after proclaiming that the Giants wouldn’t touch Cliff Lee last night.
They did and in the process impressed me so much I’m backing them tonight as my free play.
It really shouldn’t be a surprise that the Giants are favored because they have the edge in the pitching matchup and their lineup proved it could produce against the best in the business.
Matt Cain starts for San Francisco and he’s a stud who can shut the Rangers down. The right-hander has allowed one run, nine hits and has 11 strikeouts in 13 2-3 innings while going 1-0 in two postseason starts.
The Rangers will counter with C.J. Wilson, who was rocked for six runs, six hits and four walks in five innings of a 7-2 loss in Game 5 of the ALCS against the Yankees.
Trust me, the Giants are locked in at the plate and it’s going to be tough for Wilson to shut them down.
Take the Giants for the win.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO