SPORTS ADVISORS
WORLD SERIES
Philadelphia (8-2) at N.Y. Yankees (7-3)
After getting a Game 1 gem from southpaw Cliff Lee, the Phillies hand the ball to Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.14 ERA) looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the World Series, while the Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.07) in the Bronx.
Lee, making his first-ever World Series start, pitched a complete-game six-hitter on Wednesday, surrendering just one ninth-inning unearned run while striking out 10 to lead the defending champions to 6-1 victory in Game 1 of this best-of-7 series. Chase Utley provided the early scoring with a pair of solo home runs, and Philadelphia then gave Lee two insurance runs in both the eighth and ninth innings to win its fourth consecutive game in this postseason and steal home-field advantage in this series.
Philadelphia is now 19-5 in its last 24 playoff contests, including 7-2 on the road (4-1 this year) and 5-1 in the Fall Classic. Additionally, the defending champs are on positive runs of 7-1 overall and 11-3 as an underdog (9-3 as a road pup). However, Charlie Manuel’s club has dropped nine of 13 interleague games, all against the A.L. East., and it is 15-36 in its last 51 interleague contests against right-handed starters.
The Yankees, back in the World Series for the first time since 2003, lost for the first time in six home playoff games. New York, which finished with baseball’s best regular-season record, still sports impressive runs of 48-20 overall, 41-11 at new Yankee Stadium, 13-4 after a loss, 41-12 as a favorite, 45-18 against right-handed starters, 5-1 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East) and 58-26 when hosting National League opponents. Additionally, Joe Girardi’s club has won seven of eight playoff games as a favorite and eight of 11 at home in the World Series. However, the 26-time world champs came up short in their last two World Series appearances, losing to the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Marlins in 2003.
Philadelphia is now 3-1 against New York this year, having taken two of three in the Bronx in late May in a weekend interleague series. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has now won seven of the last nine meetings.
Martinez has been on the mound just once since Sept. 30, and that was in Game 2 of the NLCS in Los Angeles, and the former Cy Young winner was brilliant, holding the Dodgers to two hits and no walks in seven scoreless innings. He departed with a 1-0 lead, but his bullpen couldn’t close the deal and Philadelphia fell 2-1. Despite that setback, the Phillies are 8-2 behind Martinez, who signed a free-agent contract in July and didn’t make his first start with the big club until Aug. 12.
With his performance at Dodger Stadium, Martinez is now 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA in five road starts this year and 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 14 lifetime playoff appearances (12 starts). Martinez also has a long history against the Yankees going back to his days pitching for the Red Sox and Mets, going 12-13 with a 3.41 ERA in 38 career games (including the postseason). Most recently, Martinez faced New York last June when he was with the Mets, and he got rocked for six runs in 5 2/3 inning of a 9-0 home loss. Including two playoff starts in 2004, the Yankees are 7-2 the last nine times they’ve seen Martinez.
Burnett failed to get a decision in any of his first three playoff starts (two against the Angels, one against the Twins). The right-hander, pitching in his first postseason, was sharp in the first two outings, both at home, allowing a combined three runs on six hits in 12 1/3 innings, with New York pulling out a pair of 4-3 extra-inning victories. However, his last time out, Burnett got rocked in Game 5 in Anaheim, yielding six runs – including four before recording an out in the bottom of the first inning – on eight hits in six innings, with New York erasing the 4-0 deficit but eventually losing, 7-6.
Prior to the Game 5 loss to the Angels, the Yankees had won five straight games behind Burnett and they’re 11-2 in his last 13 outings in the Bronx (3-0 last three). Including his two solid playoff starts at home, Burnett is 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 18 games at new Yankee Stadium, with New York going 14-4.
Burnett suffered a 7-3 home loss to the Phillies on May 22, getting crushed for five runs on eight hits (including three home runs) in six innings. He’s 5-8 with a beefy 7.50 ERA in 17 lifetime games (16 starts) against Philadelphia. In the last five starts versus the Phillies, Burnett surrendered 25 runs (23 earned) on 32 hits (seven home runs) over just 24 innings (8.63 ERA), with the Phillies going 4-1.
All four Yankees-Phillies games this season have stayed under the total, and the under is 8-1 the past nine meetings overall and 5-0 in the last five in the Bronx.
As a team, Philadelphia carries “over” trends of 18-7-2 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 13-4 on the road, 15-5-2 against right-handed starters, 3-1-1 on Thursday. However, the under is 10-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 13 interleague road games, 4-1-1 in their last six against the A.L. East, 10-4-1 in their last 15 as an underdog in interleague action, 4-1-1 in the World Series and 5-2 behind Martinez.
New York is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 7-2-1 overall, 11-1-1 at home, 8-2-2 against right-handed starters, 17-6 in interleague play, 16-6 versus the N.L. East, 14-3 in the World Series and 7-0 in World Series home games. Also, with Burnett on the mound, the under is on runs of 5-2-1 overall and 12-3-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
North Carolina (4-3, 1-4 ATS) at (14) Virginia Tech (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
North Carolina plays in the Thursday night prime-time spotlight for the second straight week, only hoping for better results this time around as it heads to Lane Stadium in Blacksburg for an ACC clash with the 14th-ranked Hokies.
The Tar Heels (0-3 SU and ATS in the ACC) squandered a 24-6 third-quarter lead last Thursday night to Florida State and fell 30-27 as a two-point home favorite. North Carolina’s normally stout defense got torched for 438 total yards (395 through the air), and despite a 238-43 edge in rushing, the Tar Heels suffered their third consecutive SU and ATS Division I-A loss, all to ACC foes, to remain winless in conference play.
Virginia Tech (3-1, 2-2 in the ACC) was idle last week as it recovered from a tough 28-23 setback at Georgia Tech as a 3½-point road chalk on Oct. 17. The defeat snapped the Hokies’ five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) and continued their trend of alternating spread-covers over the past eight games. Against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor was 10-for-14 passing for 159 yards and a TD pass and added 63 rushing yards and another score, but he threw two interceptions as the Hokies held the ball for just 21½ minutes. Meanwhile, the defense got run over, surrendering 309 rushing yards.
North Carolina has split its two road contests (0-2 ATS), while Virginia Tech is unbeaten through four games at Lane Stadium (3-1 ATS).
The Hokies have won all five meetings in this series since joining the ACC in 2004, going 3-2 ATS. Last year, Virginia Tech rallied from a 17-3 third-quarter deficit to pull out a 20-17 victory as a 3½-point underdog, the only time in the last five meetings that the Hokies weren’t favored by double digits. In that contest, North Carolina QB T.J. Yates suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second half, and backup Mike Paulus came on and threw two critical interceptions that aided Virginia Tech’s comeback. The visitor has cashed in each of the last three meetings.
The Hokies have scored 23 points or more in all but one game this season and are averaging 32.6 points and 380 total yards per game, including 203.7 rushing ypg, which ranks 15th in the nation. Taylor is having a solid junior season, passing for 1,154 yards (57.6 percent completion rate) with nine TDs and three INTs, but his TD run against Georgia Tech was just his first of the season after tallying 13 rushing scores in his first two years.
Although fully recovered from last year’s knee injury, Yates has struggled throwing the ball, completing 59 percent of his passes for 1,028 yards with seven TDs offset by eight INTs, and last week against Florida State he was 12-for-25 for just 64 yards with a TD and an INT. Against ACC defenses, Yates is averaging just 106.3 passing ypg with two TDs and five INTs. As a team, North Carolina is putting up 23.1 points and just 289.3 total yards per game (128.7 rushing ypg), and the Heels have only managed 37 total points in their three conference defeats.
Both defenses have been solid, with UNC (16.4 ppg, 266.3 total ypg) holding a slight statistical edge over Virginia Tech (19.1 ppg, 317.4 total ypg). The big discrepancy is in rushing defense, with the Tar Heels allowing 102.6 rushing ypg (2.8 per carry), while the Hokies give up 150.3 ypg on the ground (3.9 per carry).
The Tar Heels are in ATS funks of 1-6-1 in the regular season, 1-4 on the road, 1-4 on Thursday and 1-5 in ACC play (0-3 this year), but they’ve cashed in eight of 11 after a non-cover and are 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points. Va-Tech has failed to cash in six of seven in October and nine of 13 as a chalk, but otherwise the Hokies are on pointspread upticks of 4-1 at home, 29-13 in conference, 7-2 against teams with a winning record, 4-1 on Thursday and 4-0 after an ATS setback.
The over is on runs of 5-1 with the Heels as a ‘dog, 4-1 with the Heels playing on Thursday, 5-2 for the Heels in October, 4-1 for Virginia Tech in October and 5-2 with Virginia Tech favored by more than 10 points. Conversely, UNC has stayed low in four of five on the road, and the Hokies are on “under” stretches of 15-5 at home and 10-1 on Thursday. Finally, the under is 4-1 in this rivalry since Virginia Tech joined the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
NBA
San Antonio (1-0 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-0 SU and ATS)
The Bulls take the court for the first time since their thrilling seven-game, opening-round playoff series against Boston as they host Tim Duncan and the Spurs at the United Center.
Chicago finished just 41-41 last year (42-39-1 ATS), but it was good enough for a second-place finish in the Central Division – 25 games behind Cleveland – and return trip to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. Despite being an overwhelming underdog, the Bulls took Boston to the limit in the first round, going 3-1 in overtime games before eventually falling 109-99 as a 5½-point road underdog in the decisive Game 7. Chicago qualified for the postseason courtesy of a 12-4 SU run to close the regular season.
San Antonio opened the season with Wednesday’s impressive 113-96 rout of the Hornets, easily cashing as a 9½-point home favorite. Tony Parker (17 points) and Manu Ginobili (16) were among six players to score in double figures for the Spurs, who have now won 10 of their last 14 regular-season games, including the last five in a row. However, including the playoffs, the Spurs are still in an 8-15 ATS slump.
The Spurs have swept the season series from Chicago each of the last two years, going 4-0 SU and ATS (all as a favorite). The road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head meetings, with San Antonio cashing in seven of its last eight trips to Chicago. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last eight clashes.
San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall (2-5 ATS last seven) and 7-13 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite, but it has covered in seven of its last 10 on the second night of a back-to-back situation. Chicago failed to cover in four of its final six regular-season games last year, but the Bulls went 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 contests versus the Western Conference last season, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against Southwest Division foes, 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home pup.
The Spurs have topped the total in six of seven overall, but the under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 against the Central Division, 4-1 in their last five when playing on no rest and 6-2 in their last eight as a road chalk. For Chicago, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall (all as an underdog) going back to the playoff series against Boston, 4-1 against the Southwest Division, 7-3 against the Western Conference and 4-1 as a home ‘dog, but five of the Bulls’ last seven on Thursday have stayed low.
Finally, not only has San Antonio won and covered four straight meetings with Chicago, but all stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Denver (1-0 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Blazers look to open a season with consecutive wins for the first time since 2004-05 when they welcome the rival Nuggets to the Rose Garden for a Northwest Division clash.
Denver tipped off its 2009-10 campaign with Wednesday’s 114-105 come-from-behind home win over the Jazz, covering as a 5 ½-point favorite. Carmelo Anthony had a game-high 30 points and Chauncey Billups chipped in 25 for the Nuggets, who improved to 15-3 in their last 18 regular-season games (11-7 ATS). However, they’re just 4-3 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch, including a 104-76 loss at Portland as an 8½-point underdog in a meaningless regular-season finale.
Portland pounced on the Rockets in its opener Tuesday, jumping out to a 75-56 lead after three quarters and cruising to a 96-87 victory, barely covering as an 8½-point home favorite. Four Blazers players scored in double figures, with Travis Outlaw pouring in a game-high 23 points and star guard Brandon Roy chipping in 20 points, five boards and five assists. The Blazers have won seven straight regular-season games (6-1 ATS) and 11 of their last 12 (10-2 ATS).
Including Portland’s blowout home win in the regular-season finale, the home team (and favorite) won and covered all four Blazers-Nuggets battles in 2008-09. Still, Denver has owned this rivalry from a pointspread perspective, going 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 series clashes, including 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 at the Rose Garden.
Including the playoffs, Denver sports positive pointspread surges of 22-7 overall, 21-6 against the Western Conference, 6-1 on the road (all as an underdog) and 4-1 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on a 14-3 ATS run in the regular season, cashing in seven of their last eight at home. Portland is also on pointspread tears of 14-4 as a favorite, 8-2 as a home chalk, 4-0 against the Northwest Division, 4-1 versus Western Conference foes and 5-1 when playing on one day of rest, but it has failed to cash in nine of 13 on Thursday.
Denver is on “under” runs of 10-3 on the road (all as a ‘dog), 20-8 when catching points overall, and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights, but the over is 12-4 in its last 16 on Thursday. For Portland, the under is on stretches of 5-0 overall (playoffs included), 4-0 when playing on one day of rest and 12-3 against Northwest Division rivals. Lastly, all four of last year’s clashes between these teams stayed low, and the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
MLB
Philadelphia at NY Yankees
The Phillies look to follow up their Game One win and build on their 7-0 record in Pedro Martinez' last 7 starts with the run total set from 9 to 10 1/2. Philadelphia is the pick (+175) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+175)
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martinez) 16.990; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.451
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-190); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+175); Under
NCAAF
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
The Hokies look to bounce back from their loss at Georgia Tech and build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Virginia Tech is the pick (-16 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hokies favored by 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-16 1/2)
Game 103-104: North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 85.745; Virginia Tech 103.225
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 17 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 16 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-16 1/2); Over
NBA
Denver at Portland
The Nuggets look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Denver is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has Portland favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+7)
Game 501-502: San Antonio at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.893; Chicago 118.709
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 198
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Denver at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.686; Portland 128.519
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 7; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+7); Under
NHL
Detroit at Edmonton
The Oilers look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-7 in its last 8 road games. Edmonton is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Oilers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+135)
Game 1-2: New Jersey at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.085; Boston 11.253
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+135); Under
Game 3-4: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.034; Atlanta 11.530
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Under
Game 5-6: Ottawa at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.866; Tampa Bay 11.196
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+115); Over
Game 7-8: Phoenix at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.467; St. Louis 12.456
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Over
Game 9-10: Chicago at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.613; Nashville 10.779
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-160); Over
Game 11-12: Detroit at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.842; Edmonton 11.941
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+135); Under
Game 13-14: Vancouver at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.558; Los Angeles 12.421
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+115); Over
Tom Freese
Phoenix Coyotes at St. Louis Blues
Prediction: Under
Phoenix is 7-2 UNDER their last 9 games overall and they are 11-4 UNDER vs. a team with a losing record. The Coyotes are 20-6 UNDER their last 26 Thursday games and they are 8-1 UNDER vs. NL Central teams. St.Louis is 18-7-4 their last vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 5-0-2 UNDER their last 7 games. The Blues are 5-2-1 UNDER their last 8 Thursday games and they are 7-2 UNDER their last 9 meetings with the Coyotes. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Frank Jordan
North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -16.5
North Carolina is 4-3 on the year and all three losses have come in ACC play. Virginia Tech is 5-2 and 3-1 in the ACC as they are coming off a tough 5 point loss to Georgia Tech. Look for Virginia Tech to dominate North Carolina just like the other 3 ACC teams who beat them this year. Play Virginia Tech
JIM FEIST
VANCOUVER CANUCKS / LOS ANGELES KINGS
TAKE: OVER
A road trip south for Vancouver, a banged up team. Canucks center Ryan Johnson was carried off the ice on a stretcher after sliding headfirst into the end boards early in the second period of Tuesday night's game against the Detroit Red Wings. Johnson was taken to a nearby hospital for further observation. Vancouver center Kyle Wellwood became the latest Canucks player injured when he broke his big toe. The first place LA Kings are 4-1 at home and the offense is smoking, scoring 20 goals the last 4 games (all wins). Look for plenty of offense by the home team, play the Canucks/Kings Over the total!
DAVE COKIN
VANCOUVER CANUCKS / LOS ANGELES KINGS
TAKE: LOS ANGELES KINGS
The Kings managed to get one point on Wednesday as they dropped a lengthy shootout to San Jose. I like the way LA is playing and they've been very solid at home so far. Vancouver will have to make do without ace goaltender Roberto Luongo tonight, and the Canucks have not been especially effective on the road thus far. I'm laying the very reasonable spot with the Kings Thursday.
JR TIPS
NUGGETS at TRAILBLAZERS
The Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets took the Northwest Division title race down to the final week of the regular season and both are expecting another tight battle in 2009-10. Coming off season-opening victories, Portland and Denver will meet tonight at the Rose Garden after the Nuggets and Trail Blazers each finished with 54 wins last season. The Blazers recorded a 96-87 victory over Houston on Tuesday as Travis Outlaw had a team-high 23 points while Greg Oden scored only two, but had 12 rebounds and five blocked shots. Portland had the fourth-best scoring defense in the NBA in 2008-09 at 94.1 points per game and the Blazers held the Rockets to 37.0 percent shooting and outrebounded them 51-33. Portland also took a 13-point lead into the second half after holding Houston to 18 second-quarter points. Denver, meanwhile, is coming off a 114-105 victory over Utah on Wednesday as Carmelo Anthony led the way with 30 points and rookie Ty Lawson added 17 with seven coming in a key fourth-quarter run.Lawson, the 18th overall pick in this year's draft from North Carolina, was 7 of 13 from the floor and had six assists and four rebounds off the bench, igniting a 9-0 run to open the fourth quarter and give the Nuggets a 91-80 lead. Denver has lost four of its last five visits to the Rose Garden, where the Blazers had the NBA's fourth-best home record at 34-7. The Nuggets will have a delay getting out of Denver due to snowfall in the area and back to back games at the Rosegarden will slow the Nuggets offense down considerably against this tough Blazer defense. Tonight's score will stay under the posted total.
TAKE UNDER 198.5
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -$189
This is a must win game for the Yankees after dropping game one last night. After being shutdown by Cliff Lee, I expect the Bombers offense to get back on track against their old friend Pedro Martinez. Play on New York.
BIG AL
New Orleans at San Antonio
Although San Antonio has to integrate a lot of new players into its system (e.g., DeJuan Blair, Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, Theo Ratliff), Coach Gregg Popovich took the unusual step this summer of thinning out the team's playbook. So, what used to be a much more difficult process for "newbies" became a heckuva lot easier. Essentially, Popovich is just going to trust his veteran newcomers (DeJuan Blair notwithstanding) to just go play basketball, as they've been doing their entire lives. The Spurs alos will have a healthy Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili back in the fold tonight, though I expect Manu's minutes to be limited given the Spurs have to play at Chicago on Monday. But with Richard Jefferson now on the team, Popovich has the luxury of resting "Super-Manu" whenever the need arises. New Orleans also made a good move this offseason when it traded Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. Though Chandler was befeft of any great offensive moves other than throwing down a dunk off a Chris Paul alley-oop, Chandler was one of the better defenders on Tim Duncan. I expect Timmy to abuse Okafor tonight, especially since Okafor missed the entire preseason with an injury. In the past, New Orleans' defensive strategy vs. San Antone was to pack the lane, and force the Spurs to beat them with outside jumpers. Unfortunately, that strategy was not made easier with the Okafor/Chandler trade, nor with the additions of McDyess and Jefferson, who are both solid offensive players. Jefferson, especially, will be able to break down New Orleans' defense.
PLAY NEW ORLEANS
Dominic Fazzini
North Carolina at VIRGINIA TECH -16'
I am kicking some serious ass with my complimentary selections, boosting my recent run to 13-6 with Wednesday's winning play on the Heat. And there's more where that came from!
Virginia Tech is coming into tonight's game with a chip on its shoulder after last week's 28-23 loss at Georgia Tech essentially ruined its chances of winning the national championship. Now, playing at home tonight, the 14th-ranked Hokies are looking to bounce back with a decisive victory over North Carolina.
Both the Hokies and the Tar Heels play great defense, with North Carolina ranked seventh in the nation and Virginia Tech checking in at No. 31. But while the Hokies' offense can put up points, averaging 32.6 points per game, the Tar Heels have struggled to move the ball at times, and has scored a total of 37 points in three ACC games, all losses straight up and ATS.
Virginia Tech averages 203.7 yards rushing per game, which ranks 15th in the country, and is even better at home, tallying 259.2 yards a contest. Plus, Hokies QB Tyrod Taylor ranks fourth in the nation in passer rating, so North Carolina can't just load up against the run.
The Hokies are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games and 7-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Tar Heels haven't beaten a ranked opponent on the road since 2001, and have lost those games by an average of 22.6 points. Take Virginia Tech to cover the points tonight.
3♦ VIRGINIA TECH
Jeff Benton
San Antonio +4 at CHICAGO
For Thursday’s free play, take the Spurs minus the points at the Bulls.
I know this is the second night of a back-to-back for San Antonio, but that’s not a concern this early in the season when everyone’s fresh. Besides, with last night’s 113-96 blowout win over the Hornets, coach Gregg Popovich was able to go deep into his bench, as only Matt Bonner (29 minutes) played more than 26 minutes.
True, this is Chicago’s season opener, and I’m sure the Bulls and their fans will be fired up tonight. However, this has been a bad matchup for Chicago the last two years, as the Spurs have won and covered four straight meetings, and those four wins have come by an average of 13 ppg, with three of the four being double-digit blowouts. Something else to keep in mind: In last year’s two games, the Bulls’ leading scorer was Ben Gordon, who tallied 20 points at home and 23 points in San Antonio. Well, Gordon now plays for the Pistons.
The Spurs are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Chicago, and the visitor has cashed in 12 of the last 16 meetings. As for the back-to-back situation, the Spurs went 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in that spot last year. Finally, the Bulls failed to cover in their final five home games last year.
4♦ SAN ANTONIO
Karl Garrett
San Antonio -3' at CHICAGO
NBA comp play winner on Denver last night.
In the NBA tonight, lay the small road impost with the new-look Spurs as they take on Chicago in the Bulls season opener.
San Antonio downed New Orleans both straight up, and agaist the spread last night at home, and they have had no trouble handling the Bulls of late, as the Spurs bring a 4 games series win, and cover streak into the Windy City tonight.
The road team is on a 12-4 spread run the last 16 times these teams have tangled, and San Antonio is a money-making 7-1 against the spread the last 8 times they have played at Chicago.
Gotta give the Spurs a play in this spot, as Chicago remains a bit of enigma once again this season.
Take San Antonio minus the points.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Bobby Maxwell
Denver +7 at PORTLAND
How easy was that Wednesday FREE winner on the Thunder? I told my followers that Oklahoma City was going to be much improved and they easily got the job done on Wednesday night. Tonight I'm right back on the hardwood with a comp play on the Nuggets as they visit Portland.
Denver is the better team – at least right now – and them catching this many points in Portland is a little strange, but nevertheless, I love Denver in this situation.
The Nuggets just beat up the Jazz 114-105 on Wednesday night, as Carmelo Anthony did what he’s supposed to do, put up big numbers and lead his team to the win. Denver covered as a 5 1/2-point favorite as Anthony had 30 points and PG Chauncey Billups chipped in with 25.
This Nuggets’ team is going to be a serious threat to the Lakers in the Western Conference. They are all familiar with one another and they all seem to like playing together. Tonight they are going to go into Portland and easily get within this number.
Denver has dominated this rivalry the last few years, going 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, including 11-5-1 in the last 17 played in the Rose Garden in Portland.
The Nuggets are on some serious ATS streaks, including 22-7 overall, 21-6 against Western Conference teams, 6-1 on the road (all as a ‘dog).
Portland beat the Rockets on Tuesday, 96-87 and barely covered as an 8 ½-point favorite. But this team has a few new faces to work into the regular rotation.
I’m loving Denver tonight, so grab the points and play the Nuggets.
3♦ DENVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia at NY YANKEES
Comp play winner last night on the UNDER in Game One of the World Series, as we are now 49-40-4 with our comp plays.
Tonight another World Series total play, only this time we are going OVER the posted total.
After getting dominated by Cliff Lee for the full 9 frames last night, look for the desperate Yankees to have success against Pedro Martinez, a pitcher they have handled before from his Boston days.
Pedro tossed a gem in division series play, but the weather tonight is not in his favor, and the fact the Yankees cannot afford to go back to Philadelphia down 0-2 is also not in his favor.
The Yankees will score some runs tonight, of that we have little doubt.
The same is true of the Phillies who should get their cuts in against the inconsistent AJ Burnett.
8 of Philadelphia's last 10 road games have played HIGH, and this one will as well.
Play on the OVER in Game Two of the World Series.
5♦ OVER
Randall the Handle
NY YANKEES/Philadelphia Over 9
Expect to hear lots of chants of “Who’s your daddy” tonight, as Pedro Martinez returns to Yankee Stadium. When Martinez was dominating the majors he had trouble against the Yanks and although he’s been terrific since joining the Phillies, it’s probably going to come crashing down on him because he’s just a fraction of his former self. What we do know is that both these bullpens are fragile as can be and once you get into them the runs keep coming. We also know that both these teams can bash and both can put together big innings. This is not Sabathia vs Lee, this is Martinez vs Burnett and Burnett, though capable of throwing a gem, is also capable of getting smacked around, as he did in his last start against the Angels. Hopefully the Yanks bats come alive tonight but it says here the winning team scores at least six. Play: NYY/Philadelphia over 9 +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY -½ +1.45 over Ottawa
The Lightning got off to a pretty rough start but they’ve played dramatically better in its last two games, a 5-2 win over San Jose and a 3-2 OT loss to the Sabres. That’s the Lightning team I, for one, was expecting to see this year, as I believe they’re one of the most improved squads in terms of off-season moves. Furthermore, they went into Ottawa two weeks ago and were absolutely buried 7-1 and looked completely out of sorts. There is no way that shellacking is not on their collective minds and as a result they’ll play their hearts out here. The Lightning are very well-rested, as they’ve been off since Saturday and when they beat the Sharkies 5-2 on Oct 22 they were on five days rest in that one as well. Mike Smith seems to have his groove back. The Sens won last night but were outplayed in Florida and only the goaltending of Pascal Leclair prevented the Panthers from winning. The Sens will play the tail end of back-to-backs here and while they’re still playing far above expectations, this is a good spot for the Lightning to keep it going. The Bolts early season poor record makes them one of the most undervalued teams in the business and hopefully we can take advantage of that over the next couple of weeks. Play: Tampa Bay -½ +1.45 (Risking 2 units).