DUNKEL INDEX
NFL
Buffalo at Cleveland
The Browns look to follow up their 17-6 win over the Bengals last weekend and build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Cleveland is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Browns favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3 1/2)
Game 301-302: Buffalo at Cleveland (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.637; Cleveland 135.701
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3 1/2); Over
NCAAF
Texas at Iowa State
The Cyclones look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a losing SU record. Iowa State is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+9)
Game 303-304: Texas at Iowa State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 90.794; Iowa State 90.431
Dunkel Line: Even; 60
Vegas Line: Texas by 9; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+9); Over
Game 305-306: Western Kentucky at UL-Monroe (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 78.331; UL-Monroe 68.886
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-7); Under
Game 307-308: UCLA at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 106.916 Utah 97.147
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 10; 64
Vegas Line: UCLA by 5 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-5 1/2); Over
MLB
LA Dodgers at Atlanta
The Braves open the NLDS against the Dodgers and look to build on their 14-1 record in Kris Medlen's last 15 starts in Game 1 of a series.Atlanta is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125)
Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.466; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.989
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Under
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Atlanta (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.503; Atlanta (Medlen) 15.021
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125); Over
NHL
Los Angeles at Minnesota
The Kings look to open the season and take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 2-7 in its last 9 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-110)
Game 1-2: Calgary at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.842; Washington 12.338
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Over
Game 3-4: New Jersey at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.200; Pittsburgh 11.061
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+160); Under
Game 5-6: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 9.736; Boston 12.666
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Over
Game 7-8: Nashville at St. Louis (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.405; St. Louis 10.426
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+170); Under
Game 9-10: Los Angeles at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.813; Minnesota 10.138
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-110); Under
Game 11-12: Florida at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.411; Dallas 11.866
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-170); Over
Game 13-14: NY Rangers at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.700; Phoenix 11.440
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-110); Under
Game 15-16: Vancouver at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.062; San Jose 11.716
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-130); Over
Marc Lawrence
Buffalo at Cleveland
Prediction: Under
The suddenly resurgent Cleveland Browns host the equally resurgent Buffalo Bills on the North coast Thursday evening, the Dawg Pound will be rocking while the Rock-n-Roll Hall of fame across the street from Cleveland Browns Stadium will be howling. Inside the stadium points should be at a premium with Cleveland owning the league's No. 3 ranked overall defense, while both teams rank in bottom half of the loop in scoring defense. With the Browns having played UNDER in 11 of their last 16 games against teams from the AFC East, and the Bills going UNDER in each of the last three meetings in this series, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the UNDER.
Brad Wilton
My free play winner will be the Dodgers to win their best-of-five series against the Braves.
At this time of the year, the pitching tends to overshadow the hitting, and while the Atlanta pitching has been good this season, I feel the Los Angeles pitching - especially the starters - is just a little better than that of the Braves.
At the end of the day, there are just too many holes in the Atlanta lineup and certainly not enough on the bench to see the Bravos advance in this five game set.
I am not saying the Dodgers are going to sweep, but for my money the Dodgers bats are a little more reliable than those of the Braves, and that is going to be the difference in who advances to the N.L.C.S.
Donny Baseball has got himself a team, and they will get by Atlanta in this opening round division league series.
Gotta lay it with L.A.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS -155
Jim Feist
Texas vs. Iowa State
Play: Under 56½
The weather in Iowa is not great for offensive football for this night game, 60% chance of rain, 12 MPH winds. Iowa State is about running the football with their new read option attack with mobile QB Sam Richardson. Running the pigskin eats up yards and the clock and the under is 20-8 in the Cyclones last 28 home games, plus 27-10 under the total on grass. Texas can also run the football and has had QB problems with David Ash battling a concussion. The under is 5-1 in the Longhorns last 6 conference games, as well as 14-5 under the total after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. And when these Big 12 rivals meet the under is 5-2 the last 7 meetings. Play Texas/Iowa State under the total.
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Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana-MonroeSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Western Kentucky -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Kentucky is on a two game win streak after beating Navy last week. In the last two seasons, the Hilltoppers are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in the month of October. They played very good defense last week, holding Navy to just 107 yards on the ground.
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Louisiana Monroe lost their star QB Kolton Browning last week to a torn quad muscle. Sophomore Brayle Brown will be under center making his first collegiate start. This is a disaster waiting to happen for ULM.
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Take the Hilltoppers in this game as they will not have to worry about Browning under center. W. Kentucky should concentrate on stopping the run which will force Brayce Brown to make some bad decisions through the air.
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Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana-MonroeSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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An already-disappointing 2013 for ULM (just 10.5 ppg vs. FBS foes TY) got worse last week when sr. QB Browning was lost for the season with a torn quad, and little-used jr backup Brown tossed 2 picks in relief vs. Tulane. Bobby Petrino's WKU ball-control offense featuring QB Doughy's short passes and RB Andrews' powerful runs will keep the chains and clock moving and hold the score down in Monroe.
Jimmy Boyd
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Play: Western Kentucky -7
Western Kentucky is definitely the play in this game. Their offense has scored an average of 31.2 points per game this season, compared to just 18 points per game from Louisiana-Monroe. The Hilltoppers have impressive wins over Kentucky and Navy, while ULM's only wins have come against Grambling, and a struggling Wake Forest team. Western Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record.
In the the Warhawks two games against decent opponents they have scored an average of 3.5 points. They were shutout in the season opener against Oklahoma, and found the endzone just once against Baylor two weeks ago. The Hilltoppers have won two straight games coming into this matchup so they have momentum on their side. The Warhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record.
Big Al McMordie
Take BOSTON BRUINS over Tampa Bay Lightning.
Free play run: 37-21 last 58 plays.
Stephen Nover
LA Dodgers vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta
I'm not going to pass up this price on the Braves, who had the best home record in baseball at 56-25, scored more runs than the Dodgers and have the best closer in baseball, Craig Kimbrel.
So why are the Dodgers such a heavy road favorite? Clayton Kershaw that's why. The guy's a monster. He's probably the best pitcher in baseball. Kershaw has a road ERA of 2.14, which is tremendous but is still more than his 1.56 home ERA.
But as good as Kershaw is, he wasn't hotter down the stretch than Atlanta starter Kris Medlen, who was named NL Pitcher of the Month for September going 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in five September starts. He has not surrendered a run during his last 22 innings.
Medlen is 3-0 career-wise versus the Dodgers with a 1.23 ERA in eight appearances.
Medlen has been pitching well the entire second half of the season compiling a 9-3 mark with a 2.38 ERA following the All-Star break. The Braves have won 74 percent of Medlen's last 55 starts.
The Dodgers have lost five of their last seven in Atlanta and will be without Matt Kemp. Andre Ethier is reduced to being just a pinch-hitter due to an ankle injury.
Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen have been terrific for the Dodgers in the eighth and ninth innings. But the Braves had two setup men with ERA's under 2.00 while compiling the league's lowest bullpen ERA. Kimbrel has been the best closer for the last two years. He saved 50 of 54 games this year striking out 98 in 67 innings.
Rob Vinciletti
Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis
Play: St. Louis
The Cardinals are rested and ready for a Pirates team they know well. St. Louis has won 6 of the 9 meetings here this seasons and has their ace in Adam, Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright has won 4 of his last 5 here vs the Pirates and has allowed just 3 runs in 14 innings here this year against them. He has won his last 2 October starts, has a 2.53 home era and an 11-6 home start record this year. He will Oppose AJ. Burnett who has struggled in his last 2 here this year allowing 10 runs in 7 innings and has lost 11 of 16 on the road with a 4.22 era. He has lost 3 of his last 4 October starts. The Pirates are 1-5 as a road dog off a home favored win where they scored 5 or more runs. Look for the Cardinals to soar past the Cardinals.
Raphael Esparza
Buffalo / Cleveland Over 40.5
The Bills offense must be able to score against this tough hard-hitting Cleveland Browns. Buffalo is averaging 22ppg in their last 4 games and the Browns offense at times looks lost. Cleveland needs to play like they did against the Vikings in Week 3 and run their offense like they did in Week 3. This total is dropping as we speak and I believe the Browns offense plays well at home and this total goes over Thursday night. Football in October usually means over games for the Bills going 8-3 O/U in the month of October. Cleveland must score first against to put the pressure off the young Cleveland quarterback and again I see Cleveland making some big plays down the field. This one should see some points.Play the 'Over' here and get your weekend started with a winner.
Bruce Marshall
Western Kentucky vs. UL Monroe
Pick: Under
An already-disappointing 2013 for ULM (just 10.5 ppg vs. FBS foes TY) got worse last week when sr. QB Browning was lost for the season with a torn quad and little-used jr backup Brayle Brown tossed 2 picks in relief vs. Tulane. Bobby Petrino's WKU ball-control offense featuring QB Doughy's short passes and RB Andrews' powerful runs will keep the chains and clock moving and hold the score down in Monroe.
Red Dog Sports
New Jersey vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Under 5½
Take under 5.5 on Thursday night. Pittsburgh is a good offensive team while the New Jersey Devils will concentrate on defense. Look for a 3-2 game and hope we don't see an empty net goal.
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CLEVELAND -3½ over BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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How quickly we forget. The Browns were on a lot of people’s radar to begin the season but two straight losses to open the year, followed by an injury to Brandon Weeden, followed by the trading of Trent Richardson to Indy and the Brownies suddenly become the forgotten team, despite two wins in a row. Not only have the Brownies won two straight in impressive fashion but they held the Bengals to six points last week. Additionally, Cleveland could easily be 4-0 instead of 2-2 after they held leads in the second half in both of their games. The Browns have played far better defense than most realize and now that their offense has worked better with Brian Hoyer, they are winning games. Joe Haden has been shutting down every opponent's #1 receiver and his natural match is on Robert Woods unless they specifically want him on Stevie Johnson. Either way, rookie E.J. Manuel is figures to have a tough go of it here. In his only road game thus far, Manuel was sacked eight times and now he has to travel on a short week.
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The Bills are the walking wounded. Both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are banged up with little time to heal. Spiller has been mostly a disappointment anyway with minimal role as a receiver, no touchdowns and marginal rushing yardage. E.J. Manuel has thrown five TD’s against three picks and he’s certainly on the right track but he also makes a lot of bad decisions that has not hurt him too badly yet but that could change in a real hurry. Let’s not forget that the Bills allowed 27 points in their only road game so far to a lousy Jets offense. Buffalo’s win last week over Baltimore looks pretty good on paper but Joe Flacco threw five picks and the Bills won by a FG. Buffalo also fumbled the ball four times but only one of those fumbles landed in the hands of the Ravens. In summarizing, the Bills have been sloppy and lucky while the Brownies offense has woken up and their defense is among the best or maybe the best in the NFL. Throw in the short week and travel angle for a rookie QB and we’ll gladly lay the points.
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UTAH +6 over UCLAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Outside of the first half in Nebraska, the Bruins have looked unstoppable in every other quarter they’ve played. Something woke them up in Nebraska, as the Bruins rallied from a big deficit to outscore the Huskers in the second half, 31-0 and defeat them, 41-21. That was three weeks ago. UCLA played two weeks ago against one of the worst teams in college football, New Mexico State, and they wer3e off last week. The Bruins other win was also a blowout, in Week 1 against an ill-equipped Nevada outfit, 58-20. UCLA’s offense has put up some gaudy numbers indeed but they are completely skewed. In the Bruins only real test of the year, they got a real scare from the fading Cornhuskers. UCLA comes in as the 12th ranked team in the country and we’re often warning you about backing ranked teams on the road when spotting points in prime time games. They are a low percentage play because in most cases the line is inflated. UCLA has looked great but they’ve also had a very easy schedule.
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The Utes have played four games, one more than the Bruins and they come into this one with a 3-1 record. Utah’s only loss came three weeks in OT against Oklahoma State. Its three wins have come against Utah State, Weber State and BYU. The Utes whacked Weber St., 70-3 and won two close ones against BYU and USU. Utah needs more from its tailback but the marriage of new offensive coordinator Dennis Erickson and sophomore triggerman Travis Wilson is working well and will absolutely text UCLA’s green secondary. Wilson has completed 75 passes in 115 attempts for over 1100 yards so far to go along with nine TD’s. No offense in the nation is as improved as Utah's. Last year, the Utes averaged 324 yards and 26.7 points per game. This year, they are averaging 505 yards and 42 points per game and they’ve played a more difficult schedule than the Bruins. UCLA has yet to face an offense like the one they’ll see here and will likely pay the price of scheduling games against two horrible football teams in Nevada and New Mexico State. Upset possibility.