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Pittsburgh +143 over ST. LOUISFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Adam Wainwright needs no introductions. Much like the team he plays for, Wainwright is a true in every sense of the word. He just goes out there every fifth day like he has been doing for years and gives the Cardinals a great chance to win every time he takes the mound. Wainwright had Tommy John Surgery in 2011 and missed the entire year but it didn’t slow him down. Wainwright’s ERA in 2012 says he took a half-season to shake off TJS rust, but skills say he was sharp all year. His strikeout rate held up and luck corrected in 2H to restore his ace status. This year, Wainwright has been lights out with 219 K’s, just 35 walks and an elite 2.94 ERA over 242 innings. Wainwright is all the way back from surgery and is the Cardinals best option to open this best of five. Of course the Cardinals can win here and to think otherwise would be foolish.
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However, the Pirates can win too. They’ve been a resilient bunch the entire season and had just three less wins than the Cardinals. The Pirates made a couple of key acquisitions at the trading deadline, picking up Justin Morneau and Marlon Byrd. Pittsburgh finished the season by sweeping the Reds in Cincinnati in a crucial three-game series and subsequently finished the Reds off with ease in the Wild-Card game. In the four games at Cincinnati, the Pirates dominating every aspect and outscored the Reds by a count of 22-8. If there were any doubt that this team was going to be fold under pressure when it counted most, they’ve been removed. The Pirates are as good and as ready as the Cardinals. After posting a 4.79 ERA from 2009-2011 with the Yankees, it was reasonable to think A.J. Burnett was in the twilight of his career when he was traded to Pittsburgh heading into 2012. Burnett responded with a skill-supported 3.51 ERA last season, his lowest since 2005 and has been even better this year. Burnett’s strikeout rate growth has come without giving back much control. A 10% swinging strike rate says the spike is legitimate. Burnett has also transformed into an extreme groundballer with a rate of 57% this season. Regression in hr/9 has also helped him keep the ball in the yard. Burnett is posting the best skills of his career that match Adam Wainwright and even surpass him. With that, the tag on Burnett and the Pirates is simply too good to pass up on in a game that probably has a 50/50 chance of cashing.
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PHOENIX -½ +143 over N.Y. RangersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. You can lay 10 cents if you like but we prefer the price on spotting a half puck because it eliminates the coin-flip of an OT session. If the Coyotes win it in OT, so be it but in the long run, we like this option on the favorite more than laying juice.
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A much needed coaching change in New York sees John Tortorella’s gritty, shot-blocking style that never worked, out the door in favor of Alain Vigneault’s more offensive style. That’s great news for guys like Rick Nash and Derek Stepan. Rangers will be looser and guys like Brad Richards could thrive under new regime. However, the Rangers in-your-face defensive style was an identity. That’s gone to Vancouver and many of those gritty types have also departed for greener pastures. The switch from a defense-minded coach to a more offensive-minded one like Alain Vigneault is not something that happens over a summer and there are other concerns for the Blue Shirts as well. New York starts the season without two of their top six forwards in Ryan Callahan and Carl Hagelin. Last season's leading scorer, Derek Stepan, did not play in a preseason game because he didn't sign his new two-year contract until last Thursday. The Rangers start the season with nine straight road games because of ongoing renovations at Madison Square Garden and won't play a home game until Oct. 28. The Rangers just went on a long Western road trip that included four days of training camp and golfing in Banff, Alberta, followed by four games in five nights in four different cities last week. They went 0-4 and were outscored 18-5. Granted, results in the preseason usually don't mean all that much. Lineups are usually mixed with veterans and prospects and coaches are tinkering with all kinds of line combinations, defensive pairs and special teams systems. But with significant players missing from the lineup and an entirely new system in place to begin a nine game trip, the Rangers figure to be ripe for the pickings.
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Last year’s listless performance by the Coyotes was an aberration. Some teams responded well to the shortened, grueling schedule while others did not, thus, we’re not going to put a lot of emphasis on that unusual season. This is a Dave Tippett coached team and Dave Tippett could make lemonade out of stones. Mike Ribeiro more than replaces Ray Whitney’s offense and the hiring of former Canucks assistant and power-play X’s and O’s master Newell Brown will help. Good goaltending, solid defense, and just enough offense is the Coyotes way. Phoenix is deep right through the line-up. Just look at their centers: you start with Ribeiro, have a couple of two-way aces in Antoine Vermette and Martin Hanzal on your second and third lines, and have Kyle Chipchurra holding down fourth-line duty. That’s a strong, well balanced group. Shane Doan is pretty much ageless, Radim Vrbata is perpetually productive and underrated, Mikkel Boedkker is coming into his own, and Lauri Korpikoski and David Moss are the quintessential useful third line wingers. And for that matter, fourth-line winger Rob Klinkhammer is looking increasingly like a player. Phoenix also has a ridiculously loaded blue-line group. It starts with Oliver Ekman-Larsson who is already a top-5 NHL defenseman. Rookie defenseman David Rundblad has been a revelation in the preseason and will help on the power-play at the very least. Keith Yandle is arguably the single best offensive defenseman in the league not named Erik Karlsson. Beyond that there’s a nice mix of veterans like Derek Morris, and young guys with upside like Michael Stone and David Schlemko. The Coyotes might just be the most undervalued team in the league to start the season and that allows us to play them at a reduced price. Dave Tippett will have this talented bunch raring and ready to go.
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Tampa Bay +168 over BOSTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Of course the Bruins are going to be good. You cannot physically be a bad hockey team when you start with a spine of Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron and Tuukka Rask. All the guys that made the Bruins the Bruins like Milan Lucic and Shawn Thornton are still there. You’re taking out Tyler Seguin and replacing his “promise” with “proven” in Loui Eriksson, pushing their depth down the middle to “amazing” with Eriksson, Bergeron, Krejci and Chris Kelly. They have one of the best goalies in the league. They’re top D pair is one of the best in the league, and they have a couple bright prospects back there too. However, the subtracted list is worrisome Think about the key roles played by Tyler Seguin, Nathan Horton, Rich Peverly, Jaromir Jagr and Andrew Ference. You can’t take a team that failed to win the Cup, remove five important Jenga blocks and expect the tower to stay standing by replacing one key guy and adding an aging Jarome Iginla. The once reliable D-corps now includes names like Matt Bartowski and unprovens Torey Krug and Dougie Hamilton, who’s shown flashes of really bad. Don’t get us wrong, the B’s have too much talent to be bad but this is still a team not nearly guaranteed the success they were in past years.
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We’re not in the business of predicting the outcome of sporting events. We’re in the business of finding value, or strong situational spots, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may. The Tampa Bay Lightning may not win this game but in no way are we passing them up at this price. The Lightning are poised to be seriously good. This is home to last year’s Art Ross winner (his second title) in Martin St. Louis, and the man doesn’t age. This is home to the NHL’s undisputed best goal scorer in Steven Stamkos. Ryan Malone is a 20-goal scoring power forward who’s healthy again, new additional Valtteri Filppula had 66 points in his last full season, and Teddy Purcell is probably the most underrated offensive player in the NHL. In the past three seasons (one shortened), he’s racked up 152 points, which gives him a higher point-per-game average than guys like Paul Stastny, Mike Richards, Blake Wheeler, Dany Heatley, or Jeff Skinner. The point is, this team has the horses on offense. Their D-corps is stacked – Victor Hedman is a stud, Matt Carle is too, and guys like Sami Salo, Mattias Ohlund and Eric Brewer aren’t exactly duds. The best part is, they have two gigantic goaltenders dying for the chance to break out as starters (they’ve been buried in the past, but they’re on the verge), meaning they’re all-but guaranteed that at least one of them gives them quality goaltending. This is a huge take-back and a definite overlay on the Bolts.
Doug Upstone
UCLA vs. Utah
Play: Under 62
On Thursday, Play UNDER on teams like Utah, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, now playing in October. In the past four years, this college football system is 27-6, 81.8 percent and the average final score has been 58.8 points.
Nick Parsons
Dodgers/Braves Under 6
Both teams were able to "coast" into the postseason, but must now get geared up to play a game which actually means something.
A couple of the best down the stretch go head to head in the opener of the NLDS and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I believe the starting pitchers will in fact be the main headline in tomorrow's summaries.
Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83 ERA)
Kershaw gave up four hits and no walks while striking out eight over six innings in an 11-0 win over the Rockies on Friday.
The southpaw has not given up a run over his last 13 innings of work.
With a sub 2.00 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, Kershaw is primed for the postseason.
Kershaw would finish the regular season with 232 K's to just 52 walks. It was also the fourth consecutive year that he had 200-plus innings and 200-plus strikeouts.
Note that he was 8-3 with a tiny 2.14 ERA on the road this year.
Kris Medlen (15-12, 3.11 ERA)
Medlen gave up two hits and two walks while striking out seven over eight innings in his team's 1-0 victory over the Phillies on Friday.
The hard-throwing right-hander has allowed only one earned run over his last 22 2/3's frames of work.
Note that Medlen posted a highly respectable 2.26 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.
The Bottom Line
LA is already without the services of slugger Matt Kemp because of an ankle injury, while Andre Ethier will be relegated to pinch-hitting to start because of an ankle issue as well.
The Braves dealt with injury issues all season and players like Evan Gattis and Elliot Johnson fortunately picked up the slack. However, there were some definite setbacks as well this year, as Dan Uggla batted just .179, while BJ Upton hit only .184 with nine home runs and 26 RBIs.
Will these lineups come in with a bit of rust? Likely not. But neither will these starters.
I believe the "under" is definitely worth a second look.
Chase Diamond
UCLA vs. Utah
Play: Utah +7
This game features the 3-0 UCLA and the 3-1 Utah. First play of our football season we won taking Utah over Utah State. This game is Utah's biggest test all season. Luckily UCLA head coach Jim Mora Jr. is 1-9 ats as a conference favorite of 7 points or less. Also are 2-7 with a bye week ats. Utah is 9-3 ats coming off the bye week and a awesome 7-2 as home underdogs ats. The public is all over road UCLA here at a rate of 86%. That is a crazy number and usually when a public side has that much action it normally loses. Try to wait close to game time to get a plus 7 points if not take what you can get as I think Utah pulls a upset tonight or at least keeps to within 3 points.
LT Profits
Texas vs Iowa State
Pick : Iowa State +8
The big news surrounding the Texas Longhorns tonight is that quarterback David Ash is out with a concussion, meaning Chase McCoy gets the start on the road vs. the Iowa State Cyclones. The Longhorns finally looked like a different football team in their last game en route to a 31-21 win over Kansas State with Ash under center after failing miserably with McCoy at the helm the previous weeks, but now Ash’s injury means Texas is forced to go back to a quarterback seemingly afraid to force the issue downfield, as McCoy is averaging only 5.8 yards per attempt. Iowa State comes off of a 38-21 win over Tulsa last week where it ran for 179 yards led by Aaron Wimberly’s 137 yards on 19 carries, and he now gets to run on Texas’s 119th ranked rushing defense. Texas is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.
Dodgers vs Braves
Pick : Under 6
If you like pitching duels, you will probably love the matchup in Game 1 of the NLDS with probable Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers visiting September Pitcher of the Month Kris Medlen and the Atlanta Braves. Kershaw’s greatness goes without saying, and believe it or not, he was actually better than his 16-9 record because he often received no run support. For the record, he finished with a spectacular 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 232 strikeouts vs. 52 walks. Now, Medlen finished 15-12 with a 3.42 ERA, but that does not tell the full story as he went 4-0 in five September starts with a 1.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while surrendering just a .197 batting average. That left him 9-3 with a 2.38 ERA since the All-Star break. The ‘under’ is 10-2 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
Dave Essler
Pittsburgh Pirates +140
Honestly, with the total finally going to 7 at CRIS and staying there, I like the Pirates chances here. They've hit Wainright better than St. Louis has hit Burnett, and IMO have the better bullpen to boot. I do think the biggest thing here is that the Pirates, although on the road, have far less pressure. Typically I prefer experience in the playoffs, and that edge clearly goes to the Cardinals, but I have never been super-high on Wainright, the Pirates have been hitting everything, and to me there is more value in Pittsburgh at this price than Wainright -150 or whatever. And, lastly, how much did the rest help the Indians last night.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Buffalo/ Cleveland Under 41: I see the OU line going up a bit, but I don't understand why. This should be a classic defensive battle. Neither QB is really good enough to lead many scoring drives vs these defenses. The Bills have some injury problems at RB, but they will still continue to pound the rock, while will eat up plenty of clock. It will also be tough for this average Bills offense to put up much on this very stout Cleveland defense that ranks in the top 9 in the league in all major categories. On the other side we have a weak and conservative Cleveland offense that averages just 16 ppg. They can really afford to be Conservative as they have that excellent defense to fall back on. They still can't run the ball very well, but I expect them to work on that as it will take the pressure off of Hoyer. This has the feel of a 17-13 type of game.
Steve Janus
Atlanta Braves +135
It's never easy going against a starter like the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, but Atlanta's Kris Medlen has been just as dominant down the stretch. Medlen posted a ridiculous 0.40 ERA and 0.794 WHIP over his last three starts and has an impressive 2.24 ERA over 16 home starts this season. Medlen faced the Dodgers twice this season and didn't allow a single earned run over 13 and 2/3 innings of work, both resulting in wins for the Braves. Atlanta's high-powered offense is more than capable of scoring just enough to get the win and there's more than enough value here with the home dog.
Dodgers are just 1-5 over their last 6 playoff road games and just 2-5 over their last 7 road games vs a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 10-2 over their last 12 vs the NL West, 10-4 in their last 14 vs a left-handed starter, 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 20-3 in Medlen's last 21 starts when he's pitching with at least 5 days rest.
GamePlan
Utah +6.5
The Utes play solid defense and catch the Bruins as a 'public' team to play on. We will go against the Bruins this week and take a motivated Utes team playing at home.
Jack Jones
Texas Longhorns -7
The Texas Longhorns still have their entire season ahead despite losing two early games to BYU and Ole Miss. They realized that last time out in their Big 12 opener against Kansas State, winning 31-21 at home to save their season. They still have the whole conference schedule left and can compete for a Big 12 title, so you can bet that Mack Brown hasn’t let his team pack it in.
The offense has really been quite impressive all season. Texas is averaging 32.7 points and 483.0 total yards per game to rank 32nd in the country in total offense. This unit should have its way with an Iowa State defense that is giving up 25.3 points and 403.0 total yards per game despite playing a very soft schedule against Northern Iowa, Iowa and Tulsa to this point.
Plus, the Longhorns have had nearly two full weeks of rest having last played on on September 21. Iowa State just played last Thursday against Tulsa, giving Texas the edge in rest and preparation. It’s not like they’ll really need it considering how much they have dominated the Cyclones in the past. Texas has won eight of the last nine meetings in this series, and it is 4-0 in its last four visits to Ames with an average score of 44-19.
Texas beat Iowa State 33-7 at home last year in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Longhorns outgained the Cyclones 609-277 or by 332 total yards. They also won 37-14 in their last visit to Ames in 2011. This is one of those program dominance situations where Texas simply has better talent across the board year in and year out, therefore it dominates Iowa State on a consistent basis.
Iowa State is 0-6 against the spread versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 yards per carry or more over the last two seasons. The Cyclones are 4-14 against the number in their last 18 games against teams who commit one or less turnovers per game on the season. The Longhorns are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Cyclones are 0-4 against the number in their last four home games. Bet Texas Thursday.
Dave Mathews
Cleveland vs. Buffalo
Play: Under 41
The Cleveland Browns held Cincinnati to just six points last week. With some rainy weather expected, Cleveland will have to run the ball more with Willis McGahee, which is never a great thing. Buffalo has issues at running back with Fred Jackson (knee) and C.J. Spiller (ankle) both hampered by injuries. The running game is the strength of the Bills, who don't want to put too much pressure on E.J. Manuel to win the game with his arm. This will be a low-scoring game.
Joe Gavazzi
UCLA -6
Each of these teams is off to phenomenal offensive starts as members of our Super 200 Club. QB Wilson has led the Utes to a 3-1 SU ATS start in which they have covered by a net 52 AFP. QB Wilson is getting the job done leading Utah to a 20-13 upset of rival BYU 12 days ago. UCLA is also playing with extra rest. Behind QB Hundley, the Bruins are perfect 3-0 SU ATS also covering by 52 pts. But traveling to the altitude of SLC as road chalk, is rarely the formula for profit. In fact, in their last visit UCLA was outscored 31-6. In a battle of teams with positive momentum, the Utes are a value side in a game that figures to see plenty of points. This is the first of a highly-profitable situation that finds us following 500 or better home teams when priced as the inferior team and playing with rest, off a win, and with revenge.
Rocketman
Los Angeles @ Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -106
The Los Angeles Kings travel to Minnesota to take on the Wild on Thursday night. This is both teams season opener for this season. Los Angeles is 7-21 last 28 road games. Los Angeles is 1-4 last 5 games overall dating back to last season. Minnesota is 4-1 last 5 games when playing on 3 days rest of more. Home team is 4-0 last 4 meetings in this series. Los Angeles is 1-4 last 5 meetings in Minnesota. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Carlos Salazar
Cleveland vs. Buffalo
Play: Under 41
The NFL week starts in Cleveland tonight as the Bills take on the Browns in a battle of 2-2 teams. Both teams are coming up upset victories last Sunday as the Browns beat the Bengals 17-6 and the Bills top the Ravens 23-20. All systems say this one will be another low scoring Thursday night game on the NFL Network. Go with the UNDER 41 tonight.