Wunderdog
Florida at Dallas
Pick: Florida
The Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars both look to improve upon very poor showings from a year ago. The only way to go for each is up, after both finished last in their respective divisions a year ago. There have been a lot of changes made to both rosters in an effort to find more opportunities to win. I am not sure if this line for game one of the season represents where it should be as each are going to need time to gel. The Panthers addressed their most glaring issue after allowing 3.54 goals per game a year ago by signing Tim Thomas. He should definitely be an improvement over a year ago - an improvement that can show itself in game one. Dallas closed last season with five straight losses, and Florida has had a lot of success in Dallas where they are 5-1 in their last six here. Play on Florida.
bookiemonsters
153-106-3 run
29-23-4 run last 56 plays
pod nj devils under 5.5
Bob Balfe
St. Louis Cardinals -155
The postseason is a whole new season that differs from the regular season. The Cardinals are the much better team here. Pittsburgh will need to win their home games to make this a competitive series, but talent from top to bottom favors the Cardinals. This is a tough place to play as the Cardinals have a huge home field advantage. Take St. Louis
Dave Price
Texas -7
Texas has a big edge in talent, and that has meant one blowout win after another in the series. The Longhorns are 8-1 in the last nine meetings with seven of the wins coming by 11 points or more. They are 4-0 at Iowa State during this stretch with the last three of these coming by margin of 21, 53 and 23. Iowa State was dominated at the line of scrimmage in its first two games versus FCS Northern Iowa and Iowa, and Texas has the beef to bully the Cyclones as well. The Longhorns are averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and that's significant because Iowa State is 0-6 ATS dating back to last season versus teams that average 4.75 yards or more per carry. The Cyclones have lost to these teams by an average score of 30.3 to 16.0. Texas has had a bye week to prepare. Plus, Mack Brown can't afford a subpar performance with as hot as his seat is getting. I believe he coaxes a strong effort out of his troops here. Lay the points.
Freddy Wills
Texas vs. Iowa State
Play: Under 55
Iowa State is going to have to lean on the running game to stay in this game. Texas is vulnerable against the run, but I think with extra time they should shut Iowa State's offense down. Meanwhile Texas will lean on the running game for a boring win as they look toward the Red River Rivalry game next week against Oklahoma. I don't think Texas needs to worry about Iowa state who they beat 33-7 at home last year. Iowa State lost 3 of their 5 starters on the OL and return just 1 defensive linemen. Lucky for Iowa State McCoy makes the start at QB and they are less confident in him making plays or putting the game in his hands. That's why it will be ground and pound tonight as the clock ticks. Iowa State's LB's are good enough to come up with some third down stops and some red zone stops to keep this under the total. Both punters are good and the coverage units are very good so field position will be at a premium forcing long drives to get 7 points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
UCLA -6 over UTAH: The Utah Utes are an improved team for sure and they play well at home, but UCLA may be the most improved team in the entire Pac-12 this year. The Bruin offense comes in ranked 2nd in the nation, averaging 614.3 ypg and they are 3rd in points scored, putting up 52.7 ppg. They are very balanced on offense averaging 330 ypg passing and 284.3 ypg rushing, so stopping just one aspect of this offense is not easy at all. Stopping this offense is even harder with a defense that Utah has. The Utes comes in allowing 406.5 ypg (77th) overall and 288.2 ypg passing (113th) and I don't feel that they ave the defense to stop this powerful UCLA offense. The Utes do have an improved offense this year, but UCLA's defense is very solid, ranking 33rd in the nation in yards allowed (339 ypg) and 30th in points allowed (30.0 ppg). Both teams can score, but it comes down to defense here and that is where the Bruins have a big edge as they will come up with a few more stops than the Utes, on their way to a nice DD win. Key Trends--- The Utes are 2-9 ATS after allowing less than 20 points and 1-4 ATS their last 5 after BYU.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh St Louis Over 6.5: I like the over in this one. The Cardinals come in as the top scoring team in the National league and they average 4.67 rpg in their own park. Pittsburgh has some problems scoring at home, but they do put up 4.01 rpg on the road and I see them having a chance to get at least 3 runs over Wainright, who has allowed 3 ER's or more in 5 of his last 6 starts vs the Pirates. AJ Burnett comes in pitching well, but he was shelled in his last 2 starts here and he has a 4.22 ERA on the road, with his road starts averaging 8.56 rpg. The Over is 12-1-4 in Adam Wainright's last 17 games vs Pittsburg, while the Over is 16-4-2 the last 22 meetings in St Louis. 8+ runs in this one.
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
As much as this selection is about the starting pitching of Adam Wainwright over AJ Burnett, I just like the way the Cardinals finished the season and I feel like they are possibly headed back to the World Series.
Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94 ERA) absolutely dominated the Chicago Cubs in his last start of the year, scattering just two hits over six innings for his 19th victory of the season. He could have gone more, but Mike Matheny was making fully sure that his ace was ready for tonight's game.
There's no doubt Wainwright is back on his game like he was pre-surgery. His WHIP is 1.07 and he posted a remarkable 219/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 241+ innings. He was clearly on pace for another Cy Young run, but Clatyon Kershaw was simply too good this year.
But I guarantee he will take a World Series ring over a Cy Young Award any day... and I think the Cardinals have a better shot at getting there than the Dodgers do... so advantage Wainwright.
No disrespect to AJ Burnett, but he's not the same pitcher on the road as he is at home and today he's in St. Louis. Should be a good game, but in the end the Cardinals will prove too strong.
Take St. Louis on the run line over Pittsburgh as your free play of the day.
2♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie comes in the NFL. Go Under the total in tonight's Buffalo-Cleveland game.
This is a pretty low total I admit, but with Cleveland's game against Cincinnati seeing just 23 combined total points scored, that puts the Under in Browns home games on a 14-4 run.
Buffalo is also coming off an Under on Sunday in their game against Baltimore. This is just the second road start of rookie EJ Manuel's career, and his 5th start overall in the NFL. On the other side of the football you have former third-string quarterback Brian Hoyer making only the third start of his young career.
I really get the feeling that the defenses are going to be dictating play in this game, and that we will be seeing more field goals then touchdowns as the night progresses.
Let's go Under in the Bills-Browns game here on Thursday night.
3♦ BUFFALO-CLEVELAND UNDER
Brad Wilton
Your free play for Thursday is the home underdog Cyclones of Iowa State to keep Mack Brown's seat at Texas nice and hot.
Don't know if Paul Rhodes' team has enough to stun Texas outright, but State did just gain some confidence in the 38 point performance in their underdog win at Tulsa.
Texas was able to stop a two game slide with the win and cover over Kansas State their last time out, but the Longhorns are just 2-2 both straight up and against the spread when favored this season, and I certainly do not trust them to pull away from Iowa State in Ames under the lights this Thursday night.
The longer the Longhorns allow the Cyclones to hang around in this game, the more the crowd gets into it, and the more the doubt continues to fill the minds of the UT players.
I say the points are worth the play with the pooch at home tonight.
1♦ IOWA STATE
Playersbet
World Series Future - Tampa Bay Rays +500
This Rays teams has impressed us all year…they just find a way to win. Everyone is really high on the Red Sox right now in the AL but we think they clicked a little to early to make a serious run. The Rays are starting to put it all together and whats a better time to do it then now. This team doesn’t have all of those fancy names like you see on these big market teams, they do not go out and sign the highest priced free agent available and they certainly do not draw a lot of attention to them selves. I bet you can ask the average baseball fan to name a handful of players off this Rays team and they will give you 1-2 names, 3 if they are lucky. Time after time this team has proven to us that they can win…I mean come on they had their backs against the walls 2 times so far in this post season 1st against the Rangers and 2nd against a red hot Cleveland team who won 10 straight, so its no fluke that this team knows how to win. The front rotation of this team is a force not to be messing with and we saw it last night as Alex Cobb completely shut down the Tribe. Maddon always seems to pull the right strings and really has this team believing in themselves. The Rays have won 10 of 12 games overall and have tons of momentum right now. If they can get past the Red Sox which we think they can in a 5 game series things will get a lot easier. At this price we can not pass it up.
NHL Predictions
New Jersey Devils +165
Pittsburgh was the best team in the East last year during the regular season with 72 points (9 ahead of the next team), while the Devils missed the playoffs the year after making it to the Cup Finals. It doesn't surprise me that the Penguins are big favorites, and I'm sure a big % of plays are going to be coming in on Pittsburgh. With that said, I like the price we're getting on the Devils as they should be a pretty solid team this year. Last season these two teams met 4 times, and the Devils won 3 of those 4 games including a 3-1 victory in Pittsburgh. New Jersey will start newly aqcuired goalie Cory Schneider in net, and I think he'll have a great season and take over the starting role from an aging Martin Brodeur this season. Schneider has looked great in preseason play going 4-0 with a brilliant .968 SV% (just 2 goals on 81 shots). On the other hand Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury had a .865 SV% during the preseason. I don't look to heavily into preseason play, but I could see Fleury have an off year this year with a loss of confidence after being the back up during their playoff run last year after posting a 3.52 GAA in the games he did play. At a big underdog price I'll take the Devils, as Schneider could easily steal one on the road.
Flames / Capitals Over 5.5
The Capitals head home for their home opener after a 6-4 loss in Chicago. The Caps looked solid offensively at times during that game, getting 4 goals past Corey Crawford, but they also had their struggles defensively allowing 34 shots against. Caps goalie Braden Holtby struggled letting in 5 goals including a weak one that really hurt Washington's chances of stealing a road game to open the year. This will be the Flames season opener, and they will be starting Finish goalie Karri Ramo. Ramo had great numbres in the KHL the past four season, but in his time in the NHL and American Hockey League (AHL) he never had a GAA under 3.00. He had an average presseason with a .897 SV%. Playing behind a team that let in 160 goals over 48 games last year (tied for last in the entire NHL) Ramo might have a tough time. Calgary did fine last year offensively averaging 2.67 goals per game (12th), while the Caps were 5th in the NHL averaging 3.04 gpg. Note the Caps gave up 2.71 gapg (18th) last year. Take the OVER.
Washington Capitals -1.5 +150
The Washington Capitals appeared to be on their way to spoiling the party in Chicago on Tuesday night. However, the Blackhawks rallied from 4-3 down to capture a 6-4 victory. The Capitals struggled mightily scoring goals early in the shortened NHL campaign last season, but quickly turned it around to finish in the top-5 for goals scored per game in the league. The team goes and falls with how Alexander Ovechkin performs, and they only turned it around after Ovechkin got things rolling last year. I expected the Capitals to keep the momentum going into this season offensively, and it appears they have, scoring 4 goals in their opener. Newcomer Mikhail Grabovski got off to a fast start with his new team, scoring 2 goals back-to-back. Ovechkin also chipped in with a goal. They couldn't hold the reigning Stanley Cup champs down though, allowing 5 goals on 34 shots. Goalie Braden Holtby should find life easier tonight against a Flames team that is in full rebuilding mode. Inexperience and young are two words to sum them up. The loss of Miikka Kiprusoff and Jerome Iginla will come full center this season, as they should struggle to make the playoffs for a fifth straight season. The Flames will start the 27-yard-old Finn, Karri Ramos, who hasn't been on an NHL roster since 2008-2009 with the Lightning. I expect the Capitals to make quick work of Ramos Thursday night en route to a comfortable win in their home opener.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND (-3.5) over Buffalo
Everyone is talking about what a great job Bobby Hoyer has done at QB for Cleveland, and he has, but the real key for the Browns is their defense which has been, for the most part, outstanding. Bills were the recipients of 5 Baltimore turnovers last week and were awful in their only road game of the year a loss to the Jets. The good times continue to roll in Cleveland.
Steve Behr
New Jersey Devils vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins are hungry to get back into action of the 2013-14 season. I see them dominating New Jersey here on their home opener. I do not cap much hockey so I am leery to lay the puck line here, so small free play on the money line with Pittsburgh coming out fast in early October at Consol Energy Center.
Mike O'Connor
CLEVELAND (-3.5) 22 Buffalo 18
The Bills won a big game as a home dog against the defending Super Bowl champions last week 23-20 as their defense sacked Joe Flacco 4 times and forced 5 interceptions. Overall on the season they have been about average from an adjusted yards per play perspective relative to their competition, while defensively they have not been good, giving up 5.45 yards per play to teams that average 5.05 YPPL. Their +5 turnover differential last week was a huge reason for the win and that brings them to +4 overall on the season. They now travel on a short week to play a Thursday night contest in Cleveland against a Browns team that has played well recently, winning their last two. Cleveland comes into this game off of a big home win as a dog 17-6 over divisional rival Cincinnati. They won the statistical battle overall with a 337 at 5.0 YPPL to 266 at 4.2 YPPL edge and have played much better on offense since Brian Hoyer has taken over as QB and WR Josh Gordon has come back from suspension. Their defense has played well through their first four games giving up just 292 total yards at 4.28 yards per play to a schedule of teams that gain 5.23 on average and this matchup appears to be strength versus strength as the Bills have a strong running game while the Browns are very good against the run. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and my model favors the Browns here by around 4 points with a total of 40 so with not much difference and no strong opinion either way, I will let the final line dictate which side I’ll lean towards. BROWNS 22-18