Dr. Bob
Texas (-7) 33 IOWA STATE 31
Texas is not a good enough team to be favored by this many points on the road against a decent Iowa State squad. Texas has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively this season but I rate the Longhorns at +0.5 yppl with Case McCoy at quarterback in place of injured David Ash. McCoy has averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback) but I actually have him rated at 0.4 yppp better than average based on his career. Iowa State has been just average defensively in their 3 games, allowing 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so Texas only has a 0.5 yppl advantage when they have the ball.
Iowa State also has an advantage when they have possession, as the Cyclones’ offense (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) is better than a Texas defense that’s allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl. The Longhorns are under a new defensive coordinator starting in week 3 and did improve in their last game against Kansas State. Using those last two games under their new DC the Longhorns are still 0.5 yppp so we’ll have to wait and see if that improvement against Kansas State is real improvement or just variance. Regardless, Texas does not have much of an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage against Iowa State and my math model gives the Cyclones a 54.4% chance of covering at +7 points. I like ISU and the over in this one.