Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, October 30

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Oklahoma City at LA Clippers
The Clippers host an Oklahoma City team that is coming off a 106-89 loss at Portland last night and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing with 0 days rest. LA is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10 1/2)

Game 501-502: Washington at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 121.302; Orlando 112.877
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: New York at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.091; Cleveland 129.121
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 21; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-10 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Detroit at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.872; Minnesota 120.412
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4); Under

Game 507-508: Utah at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 115.205; Dallas 122.764
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 10 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+10 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 114.219; LA Clippers 130.398
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 16; 208
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10 1/2); Over

NHL

Los Angeles at Pittsburgh
The Kings head to Pittsburgh tonight to face a Penguins team that is coming off an 8-3 win over New Jersey and is 1-5 in its last 6 games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+135)

Game 1-2: Boston at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.843; Buffalo 11.775
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-250); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+210); Under

Game 3-4: Los Angeles at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.662; Pittsburgh 11.510
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+135); Over

Game 5-6: Winnipeg at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.367; New Jersey 11.776
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-150); Under

Game 7-8: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.095; Tampa Bay 11.136
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+145); Over

Game 9-10: Chicago at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.327; Ottawa 11.409
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+130); Under

Game 11-12: Arizona at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 10.771; Florida 9.322
Dunkel Line & Total: Arizona by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-105); Under

Game 13-14: Anaheim at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.771; St. Louis 12.302
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under

Game 15-16: San Jose at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.788; Minnesota 11.663
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+125); Over

Game 17-18: NY Islanders at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.275; Colorado 10.743
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+100); Under

Game 19-20: Montreal at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.441; Vancouver 12.109
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-130); Over

Marc Lawrence

Saints vs. Panthers
Play: Over 49

Edges - Panthers: 6-1 ‘Over’ after scoring 10 or less points in last game; and 5-1 ’Over’ last six games. Saints: 5-0 ‘Over’ away Game Eight; and 6-1 ‘Over’ all games this season. With NFL prime-time games (Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights) having gone 19-5 ‘Over’ this season, we recommend a 1-unit play on the ‘Over’ in tonight’s Panthers-Saints game.

Jim Feist

Jazz vs. Mavericks
Play: Under 202½

Houston is off a win and the under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a win. Houston played good defense in the opener and this is the opener for Utah, so you have to wonder if the offense will be in mid-season form. The under is 20-8 in the Jazz's last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. When these teams meet the under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 5-1 under here in Utah.

DAVE COKIN

ANAHEIM DUCKS AT ST. LOUIS BLUES
PLAY: ANAHEIM DUCKS +105

I wasn’t sure what to make of the Ducks entering the new season. But if the early indicators are accurate, this team has a chance to contend and could be sticking around for awhile come springtime.

Anaheim appears to have what could be a dynamic goaltending duo in Andersen and Gibson. But what I really like about this team is how sound they’ve been as far as a the basics are concerned. The Ducks are playing very close attention to the details, and they’re executing Bruce Boudreau’s game plans to a tee.

Boudreau was probably a little hamstrung coaching the Capitals, as he had a few guys on that roster who were ultra-talented but not regarded as great team players. That problem doesn’t appear to exist with the Ducks, who are not flashy but are very effective at doing the little things that win hockey games.

There’s no knocks here on the Blues. They’re a good team and making the playoffs should be a mere formality for this squad. But in breaking down the early season analytics, the Ducks are simply the better outfit right now. Maybe that changes as the season progresses, but I’m only interested in what happens this evening.

I want to ride the hot hand and that’s the Anaheim side. This team is 4-1 both at home and on the road, and they’re a very impressive +12 in goal differential right now. That’s a team worth considering at any kind of plus money, and they’re my side here. Look to grab the best price with the Ducks tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Georgia Southern -25.5

The Eagles have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 and will have no problems with Troy. They have edges on both sides of the ball and particularly on offense where they average 526 yards per game. They are tearing through the Sun Belt conference and have won 5 straight. Troy has just one win. The Trojans have failed to cover in 20 of 24 when they allow 35 or more which will likely happen here as they wont be able to slow Down the Eagles. Take Georgia Southern Tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Sleepyj

NY Knicks +12

There will be a ton of excitement tonight in Cleveland. The return of Lebron James and the new look Cavs will be great but i think the emotional high will set in during a period of this game and the Knicks will keep this close.. New york played last night at home and got waxed by the Bulls. I think they will be much better tonight with some game legs under them and better understanding of what they are trying to do...This is to many points for a new team to lay even with Lebron and Co...Ill grab the +12 here with the Knicks.

Jesse Schule

New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche
Pick: Colorado Avalanche

The Avs finished first in the Central Division last year, and second in the West behind the Ducks. It's been a slow start this season for Colorado, currently sitting dead last in the division with eight points. They haven't had a lot of puck luck, losing all four of their games that have required overtime. The Islanders are in town tonight, and New York has been filling the net this year, ranking 2nd in the league averaging 3.8 goals per game. As good as they are at scoring goals, the Isles haven't had much success keeping the puck out of their own net. They have really struggled on the penalty kill, surrendering a league leading 10 power play goals so far. New York's #1 goaltender Jaroslav Halak has lost three straight starts posting 4.19 goals against average, but his teammates haven't done him any favors as he's facing plenty of rubber (32 shots per game). The Avs were 26-11-4 at the Pepsi Center last year, and adding veterans like Jarome Iginla and Danny Briere could help them improve on that record this year.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Sam Martin

Saints at Panthers
Prediction: Over

We scored an easy winner backing the Under in the Panthers vs. Seahawks contest last weekend, as those teams combined to score just one touchdown in a low-scoring 13-9 final score won by Seattle. Thursday night we look for the offenses to rule, and we'll back the Over to come in as we expect a completely different game tempo. New Orleans is coming off their best game of the season so far, upsetting Green Bay 44-23 as the Saints had everything fall their way while racking up a season-high 193 yards rushing as well as forcing a season-high three Green Bay turnovers.

No opinion on the ATS winner here, but we do note the Saints have gone over the total six times in seven tries, including all four games played away from home. In fact, New Orleans has allowed at least 24 points in all four of those road games. Carolina has allowed 24+ points in five of their last six games overall, and after breaking that streak against Seattle they can't match that defensive effort on a short week!

Bryan Power

Troy vs. Georgia Southern
Pick: Troy

Thus far, it has not been a good season for the Trojans of Troy. Other than a game where they were actually favored to win by eight points (and covered, 41-24 over New Mexico State), they have lost every time out. Fortunately, here they may finally be getting enough points to cover the spread and leave with the case. That's something they pulled off last Friday in a 27-13 loss at South Alabama, a game where they were getting 16 points.

The spread is significantly higher this week at Georgia Southern. The Eagles, despite playing their first full fledged year as a FBS member, are 6-2 and their only two losses have come by a combined five points at North Carolina State and Georgia Tech! They come off a 69-point effort LW at terrible Georgia State, which was their fifth consecutive win SU. They have covered all but one spread this year.

But save for a game vs FCS Savannah State, this will be the biggest spread yet for Willie Fritz's team. As a long-time Sun Belt member, Troy has to take some pride in not letting the conference "newbie" come in and just dominate. Georgia Southern in fact currently leads the SBC w/ a 5-0 record. They are also #1 in the nation in rushing yardage. However, my own power rankings indicate that this spread is about a full touchdown too high. With an open date to follow, the Eagles may look past this Thursday night matchup. Only last week's win and the one against overmatched Savannah State came by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here.

Will Rogers

Los Angeles vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

The reigning Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings have started the season strong, winning six of their nine games. They have only played twice on the road though, losing both in overtime. They might come up short once again here against a Pittsburgh Penguins team who has a tradition of playing its best hockey home in Pennsylvania.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Penguins Power Play - Pittsburgh is by far the most effective team on the power play scoring 13 goals on 32 opportunities for an amazing 40.6% success rate. That is certainly no fluke, as they were top of that table last season as well when they converted on 23.4% of their chances to play with a man advantage. Evgeni Malkin has four power play goals and seven power play points total to his name so far this season.

2. Home Cookin' - The Penguins have been a great bet at home over the last two seasons, going 50-21 SU since 2013. They have an advantage over the Kings as well, winning six of the last eight meetings at CONSOL Energy Center.

3. X-factor - A bit predictable, but Sidney Crosby has been immense so far, registering seven assists and seven goals over the first eight games. He scored twice in Tuesdays 8-3 thumping of the Devils.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

LT Profits

Florida State vs Louisville
Pick: Louisville +4.5

The defending champion Florida State Seminoles have won 23 straight games and are second in the country, but both that winning streak and their Playoff hopes could be in jeopardy when they visit the Louisville Cardinals. Louisville has the best defense in the country, leading the nation in total defense, raw defensive efficiency and DFEI, which is schedule-adjusted efficiency. So the Noles do not figure to score their usual share of points and may have to rely on defense to win this game, and that unit is down to 53rd in total defense after losing so much talent from the defense that was third in that category last season. And the Louisville offense is finally healthy with quarterback Will Gardner and wide receiver DeVante Parker back from injury and Michael Dyer running like he did at Auburn again. Florida State is 0-7 ATS its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards its previous game.

Larry Ness

Anaheim at St. Louis
Pick: Under

Anaheim goaltender Frederik Andersen has been outstanding so far this season for the Ducks. He improved to a stellar 1.70 GAA along with a .940 save percentage after his 1-0 shutout on the road against Chicago on Tuesday. The Ducks have played six straight games under the number on the strength of a fierce defensive effort that is holding their opponents to 1.9 GPG including a mere 1.2 GPG over their last five games. St Louis is holding their opponents to 2.2 GPG which is quite good as well.

However, the Blues score only 2.5 GPG so far this season. They will likely look to backup goaltender Jake Allen to be in net tonight but he has impressed with a 2.01 GAA along with a .915 save percentage in his two starts this year. Head coach Ken Hitchcock leans heavily on his defense for cautious and conservative play when the Blues face good teams as the under is 7-0-1 in St Louis' last EIGHT games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. In the last five contests between these two teams, the game has finished under the number four times. Expect these team trends to continue tonight with yet another under.

Jack Jones

Troy +26

There isn’t a lot to like about the Troy Trojans this year with their 1-7 start. Meanwhile, there’s a lot to like about Georgia Southern with its 6-2 start. Its only losses this season have come to Georgia Tech and NC State on the road by a combined five points. This team has been a public darling of late. The betting public has been all over the Eagles because of their 7-1 record against the spread.

I believe that has inflated this line to the point where the only choice here is to back the Trojans, even as gross as it might be to do so. The oddsmakers know that the betting public wants nothing to do with the Trojans and everything to do with the Eagles, so they have had to adjust the odds accordingly. There is clearly some value in taking the points with this massive road underdog.

Troy has put together enough quality performances against the spread this season to go 4-4 ATS on the year. It only lost to Duke by 17 as an 18-point underdog. It only lost at Louisiana-Monroe by two points as a 14-point dog. It beat New Mexico State 41-24 as an 8-point favorite. Last week, it went into South Alabama and competed, losing by 14 as a 16-point dog.

One big factor coming into this game is that Troy is going to have one extra day to prepare for Georgia Southern. It played last Friday against South Alabama, and it had the opportunity to watch Georgia Southern play Saturday against Georgia State. That extra day could be huge here because this is a short week for both teams, so one day makes a big difference.

Georgia Southern has had some performances in recent weeks that make me believe this 26-point spread is too much. It beat Appalachian State 34-14 at home, New Mexico State 36-28 on the road, and Idaho 47-24 at home. Troy is at least on the same level talent-wise of all three of those teams, and all three of them lost by 23 or fewer to Georgia Southern.

Larry Blakeney is 11-3 ATS in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards as the coach of Troy. Blakeny is 22-9 ATS off two consecutive games where his team forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Troy. Plays against home favorites (GA SOUTHERN) – in a game involving two mistake-free teams that commit 1.25 turnovers or less per game in conference games are 84-38 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I simply believe the Eagles are finally overvalued this week.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Carolina / New Orleans Under 49: As someone put it in my Monday night thread that all games can't go Under the Total. I am aware of that and Im also away that Overs have been killing it in these primetime NFL games, but Im also away of the fact that the Carolina offense is pitiful right now and the fact that the Saints have trouble scoring away from home, especially on grass, which can slow down this high powered attack. The Under is 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass and last year they did score just 13 points here. The Saints are off an impressive offensive showing vs the Packers, but i can see them being a bit flat after that game and it should show up on the offensive end. The Panthers have struggled on defense this year, but played a very good game vs Seattle in their last game, which should translate to confidence in this one. We also note that Carolina has allowed just 20.3 ppg at home this year and have scored just 20 ppg on grass fields. A few trends of note: The Under is 9-2 the last 11 meetings in Carolina and the Under is 15-6 in the Panthers last 21 on grass, plus 10-2 in their last 12 games vs the NFC. I see this game putting up no more than 42 points.