Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Florida State / Louisville Over 50.5: Im gonna look at the Over in this game. You read that right. The Cardinals have played great defense this year, but they haven't really been tested by an offense of this caliber just yet. The Noles offense hasn't been as explosive as last year's group, but still they have put up 31 points or more in 6 of their 7 games this year. For Louisville, they have not been a strong offensive team this year, but they are now healthy with Parker back and Dyer also in good form, plus Petrino is an offensive coach and I expect him to go right at this Florida State defense that has struggled at times, allowing 31 to Oklahoma State, 41 to NC State and 27 to Notre Dame. This should be a close game, but should also be a higher scoring game than some might think. I look for at least 55 points in this one.
Georgia Southern / Troy Over 63: These lower tier NCAA teams don't often get on national TV, but when they do they have been pulling out all the stops to put on a good show and I expect that here as well. Georgia Southern has one of the best offenses in the nation, averaging 44.8 ppg and they will be facing a horrible Troy defense that has allowed 39 ppg. Normally when I know a team will run allot I don't like the Over, but this is different as the eagles have piled up their points with the top rushing attack in the nation and will be facing a Troy defense that is 120th in the nation vs the run. Last week the Eagles scored 60 points on Georgia State and threw the ball just 6 times in the game for 47 yards. Wow. Troy is not a good offensive team, but they will be facing a Georgia Southern defense that has allowed 27.7 ppg in their last 3 games. I can see Troy getting at least 24 points here, while Georgia southern should hit the 50 point mark. Mid 70's here.
Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles Clippers -11½
The Clippers aren't going to feel sorry for the short-handed Thunder, as they will be out to get some revenge after Los Angeles eliminated them from last year's playoffs. They shouldn't have any problem winning here by at least 12 points. Oklahoma City is decimated with injuries right now. Not only are they missing the reigning MVP in Kevin Durant, but they are without three of their top guards in Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb and Anthony Morrow.
Oklahoma City surprised a lot of people with how competitive they were early in last night's loss to the Trail Blazers. The Thunder actually went into the 4th quarter with a 2-point lead, but were outscored 31-12 in the final 12 minutes to lose by 17 points. Had it not been for Westbrooks incredible play early, that game would have been a blowout a lot earlier.
The big key here is that with all the injuries the Thunder don't have a lot of depth and that's going to make it extremely difficult for them to bounce back on the road against one of the elite teams in the Western Conference. I look for the Clippers to take control of this one right away and cruise to what will likely be a 15-20 victory.
Steve Janus
Washington Wizards -4
The Wizards' 12-point loss to the Heat last night wasn't nearly as bad as the final score would indicate. Miami hit some big shots late to separate themselves and you can't overlook the fact that game meant a little more to the Heat than the Wizards. The Miami players are on a mission to prove themselves that it wasn't all James in their great run. This is still a very good Washington team and the Wizards are going to be highly motivated off that loss. Orlando simply isn't a good team and I would be surprised if they are able to keep this within 10-points. The Magic lost several key players from last year's team that wasn't very good and are without one of their best players in Victor Oladipo.
Ari Atari
Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Washington Wizards -4
The Washington Wizards have always been one of my favorite teams to bet on in the NBA when the time is right. Obviously the timing is a little early as I mentioned above and I can't qualify this as an official pick until they've got 3 under their belt.
Their first game against Miami wasn't a realistic look at how this team will pan out this season. Veterans and Youngsters combined will balance out a team that should be able to duplicate, if not surpass last season's results.
The Wizards will welcome back Nene and Dujuan Blair tonight to cause lots of problems for the thin frontcourt of the Magic. Orlando is thin everywhere and without Oladipo in the mix, they're really relying hard on Harris and Vucevic to get the job done. This is unrealistic and the Magic have only one hope which is the same as last season. Make buckets or go home. This is a team that jacks up shots all over the court without hesitation. They need a hot shooting night to overcome their opponents.
The Wizards will have to sit there and watch bucket after bucket raining down on them if they're going to lose this game. Look for the Wizards to exit Florida with a definitive win.
Robert Ferringo
Thunder / Clippers Over 202
I know that Kevin Durant is out for OKC. So the public assumption is going to be that these guys are just going to be lost without him. Well, I don’t think that’s the case. The Thunder still have some guns to turn to on that end of the floor, and I think they will be able to threaten 100 points in this game. You know who is definitely going to get to 100 in this one? The Clippers. They are going to be running and gunning at home, and they are favored by 11 points here. That tells me the books are seeing a blowout. And if it goes the way they are projecting then I project that the Clippers will end up scoring in the 115-point range. If that happens there is no way this game stays ‘under’. I think this is a play against the public, who expects the Thunder to be lost without Durant. But this is the NBA. A lot of guys can score, and OKC is going to try to pick up the slack on that end of the floor. Play ‘over’.
James Manos
Saints / Panthers Under 49.5
Difficult to play a Saints game UNDER the total and apparently even more difficult to play an isolated TV game UNDER as these games have been flying over all season long, however, I see a different scenario here. This game is likely to have a playoff type atmosphere about it as it's for 1st place in the NFC South and it's a possibility that only the division winner will be playoff bound from this underachieving sector. New Orleans has struggled to win road games, so what they've done has NOT been working, expect a bit of a different approach in this one. Against Green Bay, RB Ingram ran for 174 yards and his presence allowed the Saints to keep the Packers of the field and protect their defense. That outburst should set the stage for a heavy workload for Ingram in this game and that will keep the clock rolling. The Panthers will get RB Williams back for this contest and that should add carries to the Panthers game plan as they will likely run alot in an attempt to keep QB Brees on the sideline. I think the Saints defense is improving and Carolina has more defensive talant than they've shows so far. The Carolina offense will be heavily run oriented here and with a weak WR corp, it's their only hope to win. In LY's matchups the Panthers went 6-24 on 3rd downs and averaged less than 250 ypg of offense. Both Carolina and New Orleans are in the bottom 1/3rd of the leageu in YPP (yard per point) and I like this game UNDER the total. Tough divisional battle.
Larry Ness
Anaheim at St. Louis
Prediction: Under
Anaheim goaltender Frederik Andersen has been outstanding so far this season for the Ducks. He improved to a stellar 1.70 GAA along with a .940 save percentage after his 1-0 shutout on the road against Chicago on Tuesday. The Ducks have played six straight games under the number on the strength of a fierce defensive effort that is holding their opponents to 1.9 GPG including a mere 1.2 GPG over their last five games. St Louis is holding their opponents to 2.2 GPG which is quite good as well.
However, the Blues score only 2.5 GPG so far this season. They will likely look to backup goaltender Jake Allen to be in net tonight but he has impressed with a 2.01 GAA along with a .915 save percentage in his two starts this year. Head coach Ken Hitchcock leans heavily on his defense for cautious and conservative play when the Blues face good teams as the under is 7-0-1 in St Louis' last EIGHT games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. In the last five contests between these two teams, the game has finished under the number four times. Expect these team trends to continue tonight with yet another under.
Teddy Covers
Washington -4
I have no hesitation fading Orlando in this pointspread range right now. The Magic were a true bottom feeder last year and will be a bottom feeder again in 2014-15. They are starting a rookie point guard out of Louisiana – Lafayette, Elfrid Payton, who looked lost for extended stretches of his NBA debut at New Orleans on Tuesday. With last year’s runner-up for the Rookie of the Year award Victor Oladipo out for the next month, the only scorers on this roster who opponents have to fear are Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic, not exactly a well rounded roster.
Washington lost in Miami last night, but the Wizards are no bottom feeder. They’ll get reinforcements tonight, with Nene and DeJuan Blair both expected back following one game suspensions. Center Marcin Gortat, talking about the loss to the Heat: “I think we lost that game on rebounds, on the boards. We should fight a bit harder and stay a bit more focused on everything we do. ... We've just got to regroup and get the game tomorrow."
Nene and Blair should definitely help in that regard especially against a Magic team that allowed a whopping 26 offensive rebounds at New Orleans. Washington’s All Star point guard John Wall should run circles around Payton on both ends of the floor. And after allowing 107 points in Miami last night, this Randy Wittman quote really stands out against a weak Magic offense:
“It starts defensively and it goes from there. I truly believe where we’ve grown — those guys buying into a defensive philosophy and believing in that. If you have that, that carries you through bad offensive games. On nights you don’t shoot the ball very well, you still walk away with a win because you put in the defensive effort.” Expect a shutdown defensive performance from a focused Wizards team here, putting me firmly on the side of the road favorite (no arguments here against a Washington/Under parlay either).
SPORTS WAGERS
LOUISVILLE -3½ over Florida State
The Seminoles travel to Louisville’s Papa John Stadium for an extremely difficult road test, where the Cardinals are 48-1 at home under Coach Bobby Petrino. Furthermore, the Cardinals sport the best defense in the country, in total yards allowed and total rushing yards allowed per game. The Cardinals are improving in all areas but this one is more about fading a sinking ship in the Florida State Seminoles.
Florida State has been overvalued all year. This was most evident in Florida State’s narrow escapes against Oklahoma State, NC State and Notre Dame. As the defending champs, FSU has not made a compelling argument to suggest that it will indeed repeat. There have been several incidents that have almost cost the Seminoles a big price over the course of the season and even now there are several distractions that may ultimately divert their efforts even more. First is running back Karlos Williams, who is currently being investigated for possible involvement in an armed robbery. Williams was under the microscope for possible involvement in a prior domestic battery incident, but has since been indeminfied by Coach Jimbo Fisher and will play in this one. In addition, Heisman-winning quarterback Jameis Winston is also under investigation for his involvement with signing autographs for pay off the field. Winston is no stranger to controversy and this latest incident could not come at a worse time. When there is questionable behavior among the ranks it translates to a lack of respect for the program, coaches and teammates and that has a way of spreading throughout the entire team. The ‘Noles have played a weak schedule that has seen them narrowly survive against baby-faced Oklahoma State, self-destructive Clemson and outmanned North Carolina State before struggling to a 3-3 draw through 29 minutes of battle with a Wake Forest team that ranks dead last in the FBS in both yards per game and yards per play. It’s now been 15 games since State has had to play a winning team on the road in an environment like the one they’ll have to endure here. Don't make the mistake of thinking that Jameis Winston's rare talent can save this team. He was 30-of-36 for 317 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a monster 185 quarterback rating against Syracuse and the ‘Noles still couldn't reward their backers against an Orange team that had just lost its quarterback and demoted its offensive coordinator. We’re calling the Cardinals outright but are more than happy in taking back better than a FG.
Pass NFL
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -½ +143 over San Jose
Regulation only. After an ugly four-game losing streak which included a 2-1 home loss to the Sabres, the Sharks have responded nicely with back-to-back wins on the road over Anaheim and Colorado. The Sharkies are among the league leaders in shots on net per game and they’re scoring goals but those numbers are a little bit skewed. Since winning their first two games of the season by a combined score of 7-0, the Sharkies have been outscored 30-28 since with seven of nine games over that span coming against Eastern teams. Against those Eastern teams, the Sharks went 2-5. San Jose also concludes its modest three-game trip here after playing in the high altitude of Colorado in its last game and that could also be a factor. You see, the Sharks recently concluded a five-game trip that started on Oct 14 and ended on Oct 21, making this their eighth road game in their past 10 contests over 16 days. That’s a lot of travel early in the year and after that OT win in Colorado, San Jose could be running on fumes here.
The Wild blew a game a big lead against the Rangers on Monday but responded right back with a 3-goal rally in the third on Tuesday to beat the Bruins in Boston 4-3. Minnesota outshot Boston 42-28 and they outshot the New York Strangers 30-20. Eight games in and the Wild have not been outshot in any game this season. At home, Minnesota is 3-0 while outscoring the opposition 17-2. Over their last three games, the Wild have scored 15 times with at least four goals in all of them. What’s even more impressive is that Minnesota has put up all these gaudy numbers without the benefit of a power-play goal this season. That’s right, Minnesota is 0-26 on the PP but they have averaged more shots on net during their PP than any team in the NHL. Sooner rather than later, those pucks will start going in too. Yeah, we’re gonna ride this team until the market starts pricing them in the range they deserve to be in.
Winnipeg +129 over NEW JERSEY
OT included. We’re not sure that folks realize just how good these Jets are playing. Winnipeg is 4-5 and they lost four straight at one point but deserving it was not. The Jets have outshot their last six opponents. They are fourth in the NHL in shots allowed per game (26) behind Minnesota, St. Louis and Washington. In Winnipeg’s 4-2 loss to the Lightning, they dominated that game from start to finish, outshooting Tampa 42-27 but they ran into a super-hot Ben Bishop. Of the Jets’ five losses, only once did they spend more time in their end than in the opposition’s end. There’s a good chance that Winnipeg gets two key bodies back tonight in Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian and if one or both of those guys return, it’ll be added gravy to their appeal. Performing well all season but without the record to show for it, Winnipeg is a well-balanced team with an outstanding group of blue-liners and they are well worth a play here coming off back-to-back wins.
That laughing you hear in the distance is from none other than Martin Brodeur, whom the Devils had no interest in allowing him to cost them games anymore. They released him in favor Cory Schneider and there has not been a goaltender in the league that has been shakier than Schneider. Schneider’s save percentage is .901 and that ranks him near the bottom of the league among goaltenders with at least four starts. His GAA is 3.15, which ranks him below Jonas Enroth of the Sabres and once again near the bottom of the league. The Devils have allowed 27 goals against over their past six games and it’s been mostly the undoing of Schneider. Those soft goals take the steam out of the rest of the team. Schneider is playing scared hockey and is the confirmed starter for tonight. The Devils have yet to win at home and if the Jets should happen to score another early goal, things could go south real fast on the Devils. It’s also worth noting that the Jets defeated New Jersey both games last season while outscoring them 6-1, suggesting that the Devils have trouble with this team. This year, the Jets are so much better than last year. Definite value in this very live pup.
ST. LOUIS -½ +140 over Anaheim
Regulation only. The Ducks are 8-2 but we’re not buying it. Anaheim has received outstanding goaltending and that has been the main reason for their hot start. Anaheim has been outshot 75-59 over its last two games. They rank in or about the middle in every analytic category, which includes shots for per game, shots against per game, time in opposition’s end, goals for and against on five on five play, etc. Don’t get us wrong, the Ducks are a very decent club and most certainly a top-10 team but they are not as good as their record suggests and while goaltending is part of the team that makes them good, the Ducks are in very tough here against the superior Blues in St. Louis.
You’ve all heard of Malkin and Crosby, Seguin and Benn and Toews and Kane but there’s a new deadly duo on the horizon that play for the Blue Notes named Tarasenko and Lehtera. These two guys are wickedly talented that can skate, shoot, create and score. That duo is heating up and gives the Blue Notes an added dimension of power. The Blues got off to a slow 2-4 start and because of that, they are still a little bit under the radar. However, they were dealing with an early season flu bug that zapped their energy for a couple of games and they were also unlucky in a couple of losses. When the Blues went into Los Angeles and lost 1-0, they out-shot the Kings 43-18 and held a 3½-1 edge in time of possession in the offensive end. That has happened to them not once or twice but in three of their four losses. St. Louis ranks second in shots on net allowed per game. They rank 4th in shots on net per game and they rank 3rd in time of possession in the offensive end. When the Blue Notes lost in Anaheim on October 19, they held the Ducks to 25 shots on net. Coming off back-to-back wins against the Blackhawks and Stars and beginning to roll again, St. Louis now gets to flex its muscle at against this overvalued guest.
Bruce Marshall
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Dallas Mavericks
Dallas didn't have much trouble with Utah a year ago, winning all four matchups, three by DD margins and the other by 7 in a spread-covering effort at Salt Lake City. Though Mavs have done a significant roster overhaul since last season, Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis remain after learning how to effectively co-exist a year ago, but the return of rugged C Tyson Chandler (a mainstay of the 2010-11 title team before moving to New York) and FA addition of the athletic and explosive Chandler Parsons from Houston provide Rick Carlisle with some extra dimensions he didn't have a year ago. Note that Jazz covered only 8 of 21 in second night of back-to-backs last season, and that was before jettisoning many vet role players from what is now a very youthful roster.
Dave Price
Georgia Southern -24
Georgia Southern should have its way with Troy tonight. The Eagles lead the nation in rushing offense with 404.8 yards per game, and I don't see a Troy defense that ranks 120th in the country against the run having an answer. You want to fade road teams that give up an average of 200 rushing yards per game or more if they've allowed 6.5 or more rushing yards per carry in each of their last two games. Doing so has produced a 32-8 ATS mark since 1992. Lay the points.
Doug Upstone
Boston Bruins vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Boston Bruins -210
Play Against money line underdogs like BUFFALO revenging a home loss versus opponent, off an embarrassing road loss, where they were shut out. The Sabres were blanked at Toronto 4-0 and find an angry Boston club awaiting, who gave up a two goal lead in the third period on home ice two nights ago to lose. Teams like Buffalo in this spot are 12-46 the past four years.
Hollywood Sports
Troy at Georgia Southern
Prediction: Troy
Troy (1-7) was expecting much more this season after returning twelve starters -- the second most for this program since 2009 -- from their 6-6 season. The Trojans are playing better as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after their 27-13 loss at South Alabama as a 16-point underdog last week. Troy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Sun Belt opponents. And the Trojans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They remain a dangerous foe against an Eagles team in their inaugural season in the Sun Belt. Take the points with Troy.
Harry Bondi
FLORIDA STATE (-3.5) over Louisville
The pointspread have dropped dramatically in this game and we see a ton of value on Florida State at this price. When this line opened up over the summer the Seminoles were installed as a 17-point favorite. As late as last week the line was 9. Nothing has happened during this time to dramatically change our opinion of either team. While Florida State is not the same team as last year's national championship winner, the Seminoles overwhelmingly have the superior speed, defense and quarterback in this game. Louisville has put up great defensive numbers, but have done so against a soft schedule. And while the offense has improved as the season has gone along, starting QB Will Gardner does not have what it takes to pull off the upset. Seminoles escape Louisville with an easy cover!